So Much For the Franchise QB Theory

[wileedog]

I dont think that is it. Winning sells tickets.

Someone tell that to the Texans.

Nope not buying it. Tim Couch sell tickets. Carson Palmer on the bench for a year. David Carr? Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb?

All those guys instantly upgraded the marketability of their franchise the day they were drafted. At that point they were still untapped potential. At that point they were the young "future of the franchise." At that point they became someone that Joe Casual Fan reads about in the Sunday paper and says "Hey, everyone in making a stink about that new guy Couch. Maybe I should go check him out."

Do you think Joe Casual Fan ever thought that about heading to the stadium to check out the new DT the team drafted last April?

No, you could make that argument for Michael Vick, but that is about it. Maybe Eli Manning on name recognition.

Nope, there is no bigger day in Franchise-land than the day the team selects a new QB high in the first round. It creates a buzz. The talking heads on ESPN gush all over themselves about the new kid. The fans halfway hope every game is a blowout (either way) so the new kid gets in. Heck, we traded a 3rd for Henson 2 years ago and some guys are ready to hang Parcells because he has not gotten on the field much yet.

Do you think if we had traded a 3rd rounder for a LBer there would be five threads a day about him for two years?

Obviously that is not all of it. But it does play a factor.

There used to be a saying in business that "you'll never be fired for buying IBM " (later, Microsoft)

In the GM world, you will never be fired for drafting a QB.

 

[gbrittain]

Someone tell that to the Texans.



All those guys instantly upgraded the marketability of their franchise the day they were drafted. At that point they were still untapped potential. At that point they were the young "future of the franchise." At that point they became someone that Joe Casual Fan reads about in the Sunday paper and says "Hey, everyone in making a stink about that new guy Couch. Maybe I should go check him out."

Do you think Joe Casual Fan ever thought that about heading to the stadium to check out the new DT the team drafted last April?


Nope, there is no bigger day in Franchise-land than the day the team selects a new QB high in the first round. It creates a buzz. The talking heads on ESPN gush all over themselves about the new kid. The fans halfway hope every game is a blowout (either way) so the new kid gets in. Heck, we traded a 3rd for Henson 2 years ago and some guys are ready to hang Parcells because he has not gotten on the field much yet.

Do you think if we had traded a 3rd rounder for a LBer there would be five threads a day about him for two years?

Obviously that is not all of it. But it does play a factor.

There used to be a saying in business that "you'll never be fired for buying IBM " (later, Microsoft)

In the GM world, you will never be fired for drafting a QB.

You know this is a debate I can not win. You say that the GMs are doing it to sell tickets. There is no way disprove that, it is impossible. Unless GMs are openly admitting to doing that.

I can only assume that GMs are doing what they think is best for the franchise. You are telling me that 7 out of the last 8 #1 draft picks have been made with $$$ being the determining factor over the good of the team?

 

[Kilyin]

It looks like some people have differing definitions of a franchise QB.

Mine is any QB that demonstrates the ability to carry a team/franchise when the need arises and make clutch plays. I don't care what round they are drafted in. As far as age, anything over 32ish is crossing into retread land. So to me, you could call any of the QBs in the playoffs a franchise QB. How they got there is irrelevant.

 

[Doomsday101]

It looks like some people have differing definitions of a franchise QB.

Mine is any QB that demonstrates the ability to carry a team/franchise when the need arises and make clutch plays. I don't care what round they are drafted in. As far as age, anything over 35 is crossing into retread land. So to me, you could call any of the QBs in the playoffs a franchise QB. How they got there is irrelevant.

I agree, Brady may have been a 6th rd pick but I doubt anyone is NE does not think of him in terms of a franchise QB. I do think when teams draft a guy in the 1st rd it is with the mindset that player will be the franchise QB but it just does not always work that way in the end.

 

[Kilyin]

I agree, Brady may have been a 6th rd pick but I doubt anyone is NE does not think of him in terms of a franchise QB. I do think when teams draft a guy in the 1st rd it is with the mindset that player will be the franchise QB but it just does not always work that way in the end.

Wow, I edited that from 35 to 32ish about two seconds after posting it, you're quick.

 

[wileedog]

You know this is a debate I can not win. You say that the GMs are doing it to sell tickets. There is no way disprove that, it is impossible. Unless GMs are openly admitting to doing that.

I can only assume that GMs are doing what they think is best for the franchise. You are telling me that 7 out of the last 8 #1 draft picks have been made with $$$ being the determining factor over the good of the team?

I said it was a factor that can't be ignored. Perhpas poorly worded on my part but I didn't mean money was an over-riding perogative.

The QB however will always be the 'glamor' position and the marketing money maker, and therefore even if logic dictates that a team should attempt to use money/draft picks to shore up other parts of the team first, there will always be a drive to find that next "face" of the organization.

Plus, lets face it, just like lots of us here disagree with the best way to build a team, I'm sure the majority of GMs do as well. There will always be guys who feel just like you do that you cant do anything until you get your QB.

I will bet going forward however we will see more and more that teams who find their QBs late like Brady or Delhomme will show more sustained success than the teams who trip all over themselves every couple of years to jockey for a top 5 pick to get a QB who may or may not make it.

 

[chinch]

I make your point, but only from a superficial perspective. None of those qb's were ever considered elite qb's by the play on the field, only by their draft status. All of those teams had top five defenses with dominant running games. All of those qb's could have been replaced by qb's with 2nd,3rd, and 4th round pedigrees. Or do you think that Montana(3rd round),Brett Farve(2nd round) or Brady(6th round) couldn't have quarter backed those teams to victory. Heck, even Delhomme(udfa) could have won for those teams.

exactly. i mean if gbrittain or someone wants to start making superfluous lists do one showing Round-1 QB's who flunked out of the nfl, never started or were relegated to backup. Again gbrittain, you're grasping for facts to support a theory that is badly flawed.

None of those guys were "franchise QBs" or "dominant QBs" or whatever you want to call them. The fact they were drafted round 1 just highlights the risky nature of drafting QBs early.

 

[DipChit]

It looks like some people have differing definitions of a franchise QB.

Mine is any QB that demonstrates the ability to carry a team/franchise when the need arises and make clutch plays. I don't care what round they are drafted in. As far as age, anything over 32ish is crossing into retread land. So to me, you could call any of the QBs in the playoffs a franchise QB. How they got there is irrelevant.

I was thinking the same thing about differing opinions.

Isnt Joey Harrington a franchise QB..very high draft pick, handed over the starting job.. had it a few years now. Oooops, no wait.. it would seem he sucks so he cant be one. What if he goes to Indy to be the backup next year, Manning gets hurt in week 10 and Indy still wins it all. Is he a franchise QB then?

How bout Carr?

Does it matter how long a guy has been on a particular team before you can call him a franchise QB? Lets see.. Plummer, per above quote, is a franchise QB now.. but apparently he wasnt one in Zona cause I hear you dont let franchise QB's go (unless maybe they're 35). Now if he goes back to a 1-1 TD/INT ratio next year and the Broncos go 9-7 or worse and miss the Playoffs...is he still a franchise QB? Or does he go back to being the same ol Jake that'll break your heart?

I'm starting to think franchise QB just refers to the QB thats starting for your franchise. And as long as you're *winning*.. either because of him or in spite of him.. it's all good.

Start losing, and you might have to go find another QB for your franchise.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I was thinking the same thing about differing opinions.

Isnt Joey Harrington a franchise QB..very high draft pick, handed over the starting job.. had it a few years now. Oooops, no wait.. it would seem he sucks so he cant be one. What if he goes to Indy to be the backup next year, Manning gets hurt in week 10 and Indy still wins it all. Is he a franchise QB then?

How bout Carr?

Does it matter how long a guy has been on a particular team before you can call him a franchise QB? Lets see.. Plummer, per above quote, is a franchise QB now.. but apparently he wasnt one in Zona cause I hear you dont let franchise QB's go (unless maybe they're 35). Now if he goes back to a 1-1 TD/INT ratio next year and the Broncos go 9-7 or worse and miss the Playoffs...is he still a franchise QB? Or does he go back to being the same ol Jake that'll break your heart?

I'm starting to think franchise QB just refers to the QB thats starting for your franchise. And as long as you're *winning*.. either because of him or in spite of him.. it's all good.

Start losing, and you might have to go find another QB for your franchise.

Good post. It seems some players fluctuate wildly from franchise caliber QB to journeyman within just a matter of months. Kurt Warner's "franchise QB" label was certainly quickly giveth and taketh away.

 

[gbrittain]

exactly. i mean if gbrittain or someone wants to start making superfluous lists do one showing Round-1 QB's who flunked out of the nfl, never started or were relegated to backup. Again gbrittain, you're grasping for facts to support a theory that is badly flawed.

None of those guys were "franchise QBs" or "dominant QBs" or whatever you want to call them. The fact they were drafted round 1 just highlights the risky nature of drafting QBs early.

Do you know how illogical it is what you just said.

You bag on the first round QBs like they are the ones most likely to fail, when in reality it is the other way around.

35 1st Round Picks - 18 Starters - 51% Success Rate
13 2nd Round Picks - 3 Starters - 23% Success Rate
16 3rd Round Picks - 3 Starters - 18% Success Rate
28 4th Round Picks - 1 Starters - .03% Success Rate
15 5th Round Picks - 1 Starters - .06% Success Rate
27 6th Round Picks - 3 Starters - .11% Success Rate
36 7th Round Picks - 1 Starter - .02% Success Rate
18 8th Round Picks - 1 Starter - .05% Success Rate
Undrafted Free Agents - Four Hundred maybe? 1 Starter (Jake Delhomme) - .0025%

I am using facts here not conjecture. It is clear that the higher you are drafted the more likely you are to have a NFL career as a starter.

 

[InmanRoshi]

Do you know how illogical it is what you just said.

You bag on the first round QBs like they are the ones most likely to fail, when in reality it is the other way around.

35 1st Round Picks - 18 Starters - 51% Success Rate
13 2nd Round Picks - 3 Starters - 23% Success Rate
16 3rd Round Picks - 3 Starters - 18% Success Rate
28 4th Round Picks - 1 Starters - .03% Success Rate
15 5th Round Picks - 1 Starters - .06% Success Rate
27 6th Round Picks - 3 Starters - .11% Success Rate
36 7th Round Picks - 1 Starter - .02% Success Rate
18 8th Round Picks - 1 Starter - .05% Success Rate
Undrafted Free Agents - Four Hundred maybe? 1 Starter (Jake Delhomme) - .0025%

I am using facts here not conjecture. It is clear that the higher you are drafted the more likely you are to have a NFL career as a starter.

If I'm given the choice, give me a "failure" like Billy Volek or David Gerrard over a "success" like Joey Harrington.

 

[gbrittain]

If I'm given the choice, give me a "failure" like Billy Volek or David Gerrard over a "success" like Joey Harrington.

Success in terms of starting that is all. Does not mean they are any good. Gus Frerotte was termed "a success" in this little chart as well.

So just because they are lower round draft picks and they are starting does not mean they are good either. It kind of evens out.

I just keep hearing how first round picks are likely to fail, and that is true, but not as likely as lower round picks.

The wash out rate for lower round QBs is much higher than high round picks.

 

[CF74]

I would take Big Ben over Peyton Manning in a heart beat, Manning is by far, over rated. He lacks the balance a real QB must possessssss.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

It looks like some people have differing definitions of a franchise QB.

Mine is any QB that demonstrates the ability to carry a team/franchise when the need arises and make clutch plays. I don't care what round they are drafted in. As far as age, anything over 32ish is crossing into retread land. So to me, you could call any of the QBs in the playoffs a franchise QB. How they got there is irrelevant.

spot on

that's why there's a thing called developing a QB, who cares who they are, as long as you develop them properly, and they get the nuances of playing QB down, you have yourself a franchise QB

and possessing a little talent doesn't hurt

 

[neosapien23]

1st round

but someone with extensive knowledge of the NFL is taking the time to keep these 2 gunners around, there must be a reason, hell, we passed on Aaron Rodgers not once, but twice

Parcells wanted Spear and Ware.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Parcells wanted Spear and Ware.

cuz he needed them

makes you think that he feels he doesn't need a future at QB, that he feels he already has 1 on the roster

 

[trueblue1687]

If Defense win championships why has B-More won only won championship and not championships?

Why did the 85 Bears only win one championship and not championships?

Why is Chicago out of the playoffs?

You want to contend year in and year out, you better get you a franchise QB. Of course, it takes more than just a QB, afterall football is a team game.

However, there is not a single player on the field more important than the QB.

Defense DOES win football games. That saying is around for a reason: it's true and irrefutable. ANY coach can put together an offense that can score 10-14 points a game, heck your special teams may give you 7 or so. Will 10-14 points win you any games in the NFL? The standard USED to be 24 points to win, don't know if that's still the rule of thumb, but a strong defense will let you win games while only scoring 10-14 points. If an opposing team can't score, they can't win.

Baltimore can't win championships because of lack of discipline. Period.

Obviously there is more that goes into superbowl wins than JUST defense...luck has some factor as well (other teams losing or winning, etc.). A blanket statement like the 85 Bears thing is meaningless: they were the 85 Bears for only one year. The next they were called the 86 Bears.

 

[mr.jameswoods]

The Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger was a first team All American by the NFL Draft Report and All-American third team by the AP. He was a semifinalist for the Davey O'brien award and was selected 11th overall after he was predicted to go in the first 5 picks. To suggest he wasn't a franchise QB is assanine.

Let's not forget that both the Bronco's Jake Plummer and the Seahawks Matt Hasselback made the Pro Bowls and were signed to extended contracts befitting a franchise QB.

The 4th QB, Jake Delhomme, has already appeared in the Superbowl and is on the verge of appearing in another Superbowl. Funny, Tom Brady wasn't considered a franchise QB until he won his second Superbowl so I suppose if Jake Delhome can lead the Panthers to two more Superbowls then maybe people like you will annoint him as a "Franchise" QB. Needless to say, all of these QB's are better than Drew Bledsoe in his current state, and the only ones who would dare argue otherwise are Cowboys fans.

PS: Delhomme made the Pro Bowl too

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Really? How about Brett Favre, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, the list goes on and on. It happens all the time, with great success in many cases. For every Troy Aikman or Carson Palmer there are just as many Akili Smith's, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, etc. Parcells knows something about these guys, particularly Romo IMO, that none of us are aware of. I trust his judgement there.

Brett Favre was a 2nd round pick that was traded to GB, from Atlanta for a 1st. Steve Young would surely have been a first round pick had he not signed with the LA Express of the USFL early. Gannon took like 11 years to develope. That what your asking for? Trent Green took 8. Maybe that's more acceptable. Kurt Warner and Tom Brady were just misses but name me another QB in modern history that the Tom Brady story applies to.

There will be misses in the draft but thats at any position. Might as well say we aren't drafting anybody until the 4th round because we don't want to take the chance of busting.