I'll tell you Brain, this might be the best Michigan team I've seen. They are just dominating in there front four and with there OL.
I agree that Florida has the inside track right now but I don't know that I would say that if they win out, they are in. Let me tell ya, they better hope they don't have to face Auburn again because I think they might get smoked if they do. If they play Arkansas in the SEC title game, to me that's not going to help them much in the BCS ratings. Arkansas is good but they have really over achieved IMO. They have not played a great schedule IMO and they have played a lot of close games in the SEC. 21-19 over Vandy, 24-23 over Bama, 26-20 over SCar and they got stomped against USC 50-14. They did beat Auburn, which is important but they still have the Vols, MissSt and LSU left and then the SEC Title game. I don't think Arkansas is going to win out. If they don't, then it's probably Auburn and that's bad for Florida IMO. The other thing that could really hurt Florida is if they don't kill FSU. They have to win convincingly IMO or it will hurt there BCS ranking. That's a rivalry game that could kill Florida. Auburn is who I would be more affraid of in the SEC.
As far as Texas goes, they have KSt. who they should really be able to beat, then TAM who should be a ranked opponent in Austin and then the Big 12 Championship game. That will either be Nebraska or Missouri depending. Nebraska is really the only team who has played Texas close (outside of OSU of course) but I watched that game and I doubt Nebraska is going to get a snow storm like they did in Lincoln. I don't see either of those teams having a very good chance of beating Texas. Interestingly enough, the Oklahoma lose to at Oregon really hurts Texas. Oklahoma should be 8-1 with it's only lose to Texas. Oregon should be 6-3 going into the SC game. This really hurts Texas because right now, they would probably be the number 3 team in the country in all polls. I look at Texas' case for a national championship game and I see it as compelling. They are ranked higher in every poll, except the BCS, then anybody other then Michigan or OSU. If OSU wins, then you have Colt McCoy (highest rated QB in the country) in a rematch with the whole how far has he come angle against possibly the Heisman Winner with Smith. Also a National Championship rematch from last year. If Michigan wins, then the loss against OSU is not as big an obstical to put Texas in a championship game and you also have the Rose Bowl rematch from 2004. Either way, I can see a good angle on Texas.