Spencer may not be done?

[khiladi]

How did Spencer dramatically underachieve when he was given the likes of Dave Campo coaching that horrific secondary and MLB that were so slow, even an old lady could out run them? Notice how Spencer has an MVP year the very year the secondary is adequate, let alone above average...

 

[Nation]

How did Spencer dramatically underachieve when he was given the likes of Dave Campo coaching that horrific secondary and MLB that were so slow, even an old lady could out run them? Notice how Spencer has an MVP year the very year the secondary is adequate, let alone above average...

It's people that don't understand football and equate strong-side 3-4 OLB play with sack totals.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Frankly..

He is another of the players who have dramatically underachieved while taken so high in the draft.

Last year was his only decent return on the investment IMO.

So you give him some Mega Deal.

Please no more cap killing deals.

We have had too many of those.

People's expectations of first-round draft picks are bizarrely overinflated. Here's a quick look at the first-round success rate over a 5-year period:

http://oakcreek.patch.com/groups/an...e-nfl-first-round-success-rate-from-2006-2010

So we can expect about half of first-rounders to "hit" (note that Anthony was labeled a hit here) and about 10% to become big stars. Sounds about right. And Spencer was a very late first-rounder.

Anthony Spencer in no way, shape or form underachieved his draft position: forget about "dramatically".

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Sometimes you find 1st round talent in later rounds.

Spencer was a 1st rounder in the 20's. Would have like to have gotten more. He seems like a "do just enough kind of player"
Parcell's, "never let good enough, be good enough"

 

[Idgit]

Since he's already on IR can we designate him to return or no?

We used our single designation for Rat.

 

[Galian Beast]

We used our single designation for Rat.

Incorrect, we put Ratliff on PUP. The failure to be able to bring Spencer back is because we put him on IR without a return designation.

 

[Idgit]

Incorrect, we put Ratliff on PUP. The failure to be able to bring Spencer back is because we put him on IR without a return designation.

Ah, right. My bad.

I know we didn't use the single designation for Spencer, so he's done. Were we talking about using it on somebody at one point, then? I thought we'd used it already. Or am I just brain-farting?

 

[Ring Leader]

Many will view him as an underachiever simply because it took him a while to finally reach his 1st round potential. Now that his future with the team is in the balance, we may never truly reap the rewards for the time and money we invested in what finally looked like a pro bowl type player. From a value perspective, we were all optimistic that the long and expensive investment would finally be paying big dividends, only to see the $10 million dollar man's season, and possibly his career, go up in smoke.

 

[Direwolf63]

Whether Spencer returns or not largely depends on the play of Selvie and Rayford. If Selvie keeps playing the way he has been, he's a keeper. Rayford could back him up. Crawford will be back next year and they likely will draft a DE next year.

I don't see Spencer coming back unless he's very, cheap. Somebody will take a chance on him with more money on the table.

 

[Galian Beast]

Ah, right. My bad.

I know we didn't use the single designation for Spencer, so he's done. Were we talking about using it on somebody at one point, then? I thought we'd used it already. Or am I just brain-farting?

We haven't used it yet, and likely would only use it on a player of particular caliber that would warrant the use.

I don't think they expected Spencer back this year, otherwise they would have used it on him. Perhaps they jumped the gun a bit, who knows.

 

[JPM]

mega deal?

 

[Verdict]

Looking at Spencer, what exactly was his worth? He has been a solid, if not spectacular player. He was not a bust by any reasonable standard. He has had a pretty productive career with the Dallas Cowboys. But many Cowboys fans over value Spencer because of their affinity for the team, or root for him personally.

Some will argue that "Spencer was our best player on defense last year". Maybe so, but that isn't a very high standard though, since arguably the players who are obviously better than Spencer on our defense were injured. You don't get the nickname Almost Anthony by being dominant.

Spencer was worth the draft pick it cost us to acquire him, because he contributed in substantial way for his entire career with the Cowboys. But realistically, one could reasonably expect to get the same production out of a second or third round pick. So was he a good pick? Yes. Was he worth the pick? Yes. But is the the superhero many make him out to be? Personally I don't think so, but that is just MY opinion. I do NOT think he was worth the franchise tag money we spent on him the past two years ..... in either year.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

There's no opting out of IR. The only option left for Spencer is whether to be operated upon or not. Other than that, he's destined to sit out the year and hope he's able to return to playing football again at some point. I can't help but think it'll be for another team. His time with the Cowboys has never proven to be a bargain, I'm afraid, although I'll wish him well in his recovery and in playing for another team.

I think we'll pay to have him back. His injury drops his monetary value a bit, so that bodes well for us. Plus, I think he wants to come back to a 4-3 system. It suits him well, too. He just never got a chance to shine in this defense. But he would have if not for his injury.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

To me, I think this injury makes him more likely to return next year. I mean, if he can physically. The only way he was leaving Dallas was with a nice multi year deal somewhere else. That's not happening now.

That's the point I was also making. The injury helps us, because it lowers his market value.

 

[Verdict]

People's expectations of first-round draft picks are bizarrely overinflated. Here's a quick look at the first-round success rate over a 5-year period:

http://oakcreek.patch.com/groups/an...e-nfl-first-round-success-rate-from-2006-2010

So we can expect about half of first-rounders to "hit" (note that Anthony was labeled a hit here) and about 10% to become big stars. Sounds about right. And Spencer was a very late first-rounder.

Anthony Spencer in no way, shape or form underachieved his draft position: forget about "dramatically".

I'm curious what the percentage of whiffs, or too early to calls were QBs who are often over drafted due to the importance of the position. My guess is pretty high, which probably shifts the analysis slightly.

 

[Verdict]

I think we'll pay to have him back. His injury drops his monetary value a bit, so that bodes well for us. Plus, I think he wants to come back to a 4-3 system. It suits him well, too. He just never got a chance to shine in this defense. But he would have.

It is possible that he would excel in this defense. But if he doesn't excel, his proponents will find some excuse for him. If Selvie can light the world on fire in this defense, and Spencer can't, I don't see how someone could overlook that.

 

[Redball Express]

People's expectations of first-round draft picks are bizarrely overinflated. Here's a quick look at the first-round success rate over a 5-year period:

http://oakcreek.patch.com/groups/an...e-nfl-first-round-success-rate-from-2006-2010

So we can expect about half of first-rounders to "hit" (note that Anthony was labeled a hit here) and about 10% to become big stars. Sounds about right. And Spencer was a very late first-rounder.

Anthony Spencer in no way, shape or form underachieved his draft position: forget about "dramatically".

I understand.

I do expect more out of a 1st Rd. player like Spencer.

What are your expectations of Frederick this year..?

You expect him to not anchor the line in the middle immediately and excel there..right..for all 4 years of his contract..right..?

Same thing for Spencer.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I'm curious what the percentage of whiffs, or too early to calls were QBs who are often over drafted due to the importance of the position. My guess is pretty high, which probably shifts the analysis slightly.

This stuff isn't hard to look up:

2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2007: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow

That's 12 QBs. Four obvious hits (Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford), and then it depends on where you put Bradford (still starting but oh my god did you see them last night), Freeman (started until a couple days ago, made a Pro Bowl) and Young (started for quite a while). I guess I'd call it 5 hits and say that it doesn't really skew the results to any meaningful extent.

 

[Nation]

I understand.

I do expect more out of a 1st Rd. player like Spencer.

What are your expectations of Frederick this year..?

You expect him to not anchor the line in the middle immediately and excel there..right..for all 4 years of his contract..right..?

Same thing for Spencer.

Spencer did excel here. It's just people don't seem to understand that a strongside guy excelling doesn't meant 10+ sacks a year.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I understand.

I do expect more out of a 1st Rd. player like Spencer.

What are your expectations of Frederick this year..?

You expect him to not anchor the line in the middle immediately and excel there..right..for all 4 years of his contract..right..?

Same thing for Spencer.

This is exactly what I mean by "overinflated." I'm like anyone else: I get excited about first-rounders and hope that they turn into major stars. But I know that that doesn't really happen all that often. I know it was a typo on your part, but on Frederick, I agree with your comment that I "expect[ed] him to NOT anchor the line immediately". I expected him to have more growing pains than it seems like he's had so far (although Poe did have his way with him on a number of plays). I expected him to start right away, but that says a lot more about the state of the center position in Dallas than it does about what I thought a rookie center would likely be capable of. I actually don't expect him to "excel": I consider it more likely that he'll be a good solid starter but not a perennial Pro-Bowler or anything like that.

And, of course, Spencer did very very well here. At least as well as I would have expected from a late first-rounder.