Simple. There's only been one SB won by an UDFA. The last 8 have been won by a top 32 pick.
1st round qbs who bust are so overscrutinized that you hear people say that ytou shouldn't take a qb in the first round. Even though any reasonable look at it tells you that you should.
I like this post.
I & II...Bart Starr, 17th, pick 200. Would now be a 6th.
III...Joe Namath, 1st.
IV...Len Dawson, 1st.
V...Earl Morrall, 1st.
VI & XII...Roger Staubach, 10th, pick 129. Would now be a 4th.
VII & VIII...Bob Griese, 1st.
IX, X, XIII, & XVI...Terry Bradshaw, 1st overall.
XI...Ken Stabler, 2nd.
XV & XVIII...Jim Plunkett, 1st overall.
XVI,XIX, XXIII, & XXIV...Joe Montana, 3rd
XVII...Joe Theisman, 4th, pick 99.
XX...Jim McMahon, 1st.
XXI...Phil Simms, 1st.
XXII...Mark Rypien, 6th, pick 146. Would now be a 5th.
XXV...Jeff Hostetler, 3rd, pick 59. Would now be a 2nd.
XXVI...Doug Williams, 1st.
XXVII, XXVIII, & XXX...Troy Aikman, 1st overall.
XXIX...Steve Young, 1st.
XXXI...Brett Favre, 2nd.
XXXII & XXXIII...John Elway, 1st overall.
XXXIV...Kurt Warner, Undrafted.
XXXV...Trent Dilfer, 1st.
XXXVI, XXXVIII, & XXXIX...Tom Brady, 6th.
XXXVII...Brad Johnson, 9th, pick 227. Would now be a 7th.
XL & XLIII...Ben Roethlisberger, 1st.
XLI...Peyton Manning, 1st overall.
XLII & XLVI...Eli Manning, 1st overall.
XLIV...Drew Brees, 2nd, pick 32. Would now be the last pick of round 1.
XLV...Aaron Rodgers, 1st.
XLVII...Joe Flacco, 1st.
The Tally Book Says...
47 Super Bowls.
- 28 won by QBs who were 1st round picks.
- 14 of those 28 were won by guys who were the overall #1 pick.
- 1 more would today be a 1st round pick.
- 3 were won by 2nd round picks.
- 1 more would today be a 2nd round pick.
- 5 were won by 3rd round picks.
- 1 was won by a 4th round pick.
- 1 would today be a 4th round pick.
- 1 would today be a 5th round pick.
- 4 were won by 6th round picks.
- 2 more would today be 6th round picks.
- 1 would today be a 7th round pick.
- 1 was won by a 9th round pick.
- 2 were won by a 10th round pick.
- 2 were won by a 17th round pick.
- 1 was won by a UDFA.
Therefore the odds say that not only should you place more expectations upon a 1st round pick QB, but of those 28, 50% of them are won by the overall #1 pick.