Stephen Jones is a terrible negotiator

[davey999]

I do not want to hear the injury excuse next year when we have no depth.

This is why.

 

[Idgit]

Also you never know what would have happened, but at this point Lawrence, Hegeman, Attaochu, Murphy and Tuitt are all off the board by pick #50. Its possible that if we had stood pat at 47 we would have lost out on all the players we rated as DL who could help us this year.

Shudder. The real problem is that we were in this position in the first place. The cupboard was bare at WDE, and we needed to have a guy. So we had to give up picks to do it.

 

[honyock]

I get what your saying. If you were to plot the two curves you have the Cowboys chart being lower than traditional in round 1, while the Cowboys chart is higher than traditional at the end of round 7. Somewhere in the middle the two charts intersect.

I would agree with that.

Yeah that's what I was thinking. By the way, I just ran the trade using the chart I'm talking about. The website is http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/04/nfl-draft-trade-machine.html . You can plug in the trade numbers and it gives the percentage winner/loser from four different charts. The one that I'm suspecting is similar to the Cowboys chart is the Sports+Numbers chart.

By the Jimmy chart, Dallas lost by about a 12.5%.
By the Sports+Numbers chart, Dallas lost by substantially more, about 32.7%.

Again, that's just my guess based on past comments that their chart is similar to Sports+Numbers.

They really wanted Lawrence.

 

[Idgit]

I do not want to hear the injury excuse next year when we have no depth.

This is why.

This is *not* why. Old players and injuries hurt you. A tight salary cap hurts you. It's not Dallas moving up or down in the draft that hurts you.

The bigger bummer, for many of us, I bet, is less that we doubled down on Lawrence. It's that we were all looking forward to tonights draft, and it was abruptly over right after it started. I'm bummed by that.

 

[honyock]

Shudder. The real problem is that we were in this position in the first place. The cupboard was bare at WDE, and we needed to have a guy. So we had to give up picks to do it.

I think that's right on. Garrett acknowledged sometime in the last year or so that in 2011 they were going to take an offensive lineman in round one, because of desperate need. (Thank goodness need and draft position gave us Tyron). He said they never wanted to be in that position again. I think they acknowledged today that they were in that desperate position again on the d-line and especailly at edge rusher.

 

[Kaiser]

Shudder. The real problem is that we were in this position in the first place. The cupboard was bare at WDE, and we needed to have a guy. So we had to give up picks to do it.

True, but that die was cast when the cut Demarcus Ware. If you take the long term view, no one saw his production falling as far and as fast as it did - and IMO it was a surprise that Denver was will to pay a lot more than Dallas would offer in a restructure.

 

[Hoofbite]

That's the rub, right? It's the right way to make the decision, but then you're doubling down your bust-risk on one player. The chances of being wrong on a high second rounder are higher than being wrong on both a mid second and a mid third rounder. The chances of one high second rounder being great are lower than the chances of one of two 2nd and 3rd rounders being great. Just like the article you posted a few days back.

That said, we've some holes, but I don't think they're as many as our fans like to say there are on draft day. Even so, teams start a lot more players in the 7th and from CFA than I think most fans realize:

Not that many more players from the third round than there are from the seventh, when you looks at it. Rosters get filled out by inexpensive young players. Though I imagine a graph of longevity by round would look very different, we're still going to be adding a bunch of players for next season in the next few days. Those 7ths aren't just throwaways.

I would also imagine the graph of contribution is significantly skewed. Late round picks often make a roster just because they're dirt cheap and playing special teams doesn't exactly require the greatest of skills.

And perhaps just sheer volume. There's so many extra after adding the compensatory picks in that some of them are going to be better than projected. There's 32 extra picks in this draft over what would be expected without compensatory picks, all of them coming at the end of the 3rd round or later.

 

[davey999]

This is *not* why. Old players and injuries hurt you. A tight salary cap hurts you. It's not Dallas moving up or down in the draft that hurts you.

The bigger bummer, for many of us, I bet, is less that we doubled down on Lawrence. It's that we were all looking forward to tonights draft, and it was abruptly over right after it started. I'm bummed by that.

Yes it is. When you trade multiple picks to get singular ones, it catches up to you.

Successful teams don't do this consistently.

 

[Tabascocat]

This is *not* why. Old players and injuries hurt you. A tight salary cap hurts you. It's not Dallas moving up or down in the draft that hurts you.

The bigger bummer, for many of us, I bet, is less that we doubled down on Lawrence. It's that we were all looking forward to tonights draft, and it was abruptly over right after it started. I'm bummed by that.

Premature draftation??

I was still cooking the steaks looking forward to sitting in front of the TV by pick 35

 

[honyock]

This is *not* why. Old players and injuries hurt you. A tight salary cap hurts you. It's not Dallas moving up or down in the draft that hurts you.

The bigger bummer, for many of us, I bet, is less that we doubled down on Lawrence. It's that we were all looking forward to tonights draft, and it was abruptly over right after it started. I'm bummed by that.

So wanna play Words with Friends? Because I've got some time on my hands.

 

[Idgit]

So wanna play Words with Friends? Because I've got some time on my hands.

Words with Acquaintances. Maybe.

 

[Hoov]

This is *not* why. Old players and injuries hurt you. A tight salary cap hurts you. It's not Dallas moving up or down in the draft that hurts you.

The bigger bummer, for many of us, I bet, is less that we doubled down on Lawrence. It's that we were all looking forward to tonights draft, and it was abruptly over right after it started. I'm bummed by that.

Lol. Some truth to that

 

[Kevinicus]

I do not want to hear the injury excuse next year when we have no depth.

This is why.

What does depth matter if the depth is also injured?

 

[cowboys1981]

I like the pick up. I won't get caught up in the trade debate.

I like Lawrence. He's quick in game play, but slow at combine. I'll take game tape over combine results any day.

WDE-Lawrence-quick off the snap
D1T-McClain anchors blockers and pushes the line
D3T-Melton- A younger version of Hatcher and can also break the line
SDE-Selvie/Spencer- this could work if Spencer is healthy. He can use this rotation as a chance to get a deal next offseason. These two will push each other.

 

[Idgit]

I would also imagine the graph of contribution is significantly skewed. Late round picks often make a roster just because they're dirt cheap and playing special teams doesn't exactly require the greatest of skills.

And perhaps just sheer volume. There's so many extra after adding the compensatory picks in that some of them are going to be better than projected. There's 32 extra picks in this draft over what would be expected without compensatory picks, all of them coming at the end of the 3rd round or later.

Yep. Still, it's interesting to get the idea how the rosters are filled out. But, obviously, the higher round guys are typically the much better players. I'm sure the same graphs of starters would look very different, for obvious reasons.

 

[Hoofbite]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. By the way, I just ran the trade using the chart I'm talking about. The website is http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/04/nfl-draft-trade-machine.html . You can plug in the trade numbers and it gives the percentage winner/loser from four different charts. The one that I'm suspecting is similar to the Cowboys chart is the Sports+Numbers chart.

By the Jimmy chart, Dallas lost by about a 12.5%.
By the Sports+Numbers chart, Dallas lost by substantially more, about 32.7%.

Again, that's just my guess based on past comments that their chart is similar to Sports+Numbers.

They really wanted Lawrence.

So that guy has looked at player performance and plotted it against draft position? Kinda cool. Although if that's the case, it's kind of gonna be off due to projections versus outcomes.

It's more of a measure of how well the league as a whole does at identifying talent, not so much a measure of what individual teams think they can get per given pick.

Or am I looking at their page wrong? Just glanced at it quickly.

 

[Idgit]

I think that's right on. Garrett acknowledged sometime in the last year or so that in 2011 they were going to take an offensive lineman in round one, because of desperate need. (Thank goodness need and draft position gave us Tyron). He said they never wanted to be in that position again. I think they acknowledged today that they were in that desperate position again on the d-line and especailly at edge rusher.

True, but that die was cast when the cut Demarcus Ware. If you take the long term view, no one saw his production falling as far and as fast as it did - and IMO it was a surprise that Denver was will to pay a lot more than Dallas would offer in a restructure.

Yep. Wheels fell off on Ware way faster than I ever thought they would, and it caught us at a really bad time. So we made a move in the second/third that I don't really like. I still like what we did better than the alternative of keeping Ware another year, paying him, and trying to address the DL with whatever was there for us at 47, though.

At least we took a good player. Had we moved up and taken somebody I didn't like, I'd be a lot grumpier here.

 

[Kaiser]

At least we took a good player. Had we moved up and taken somebody I didn't like, I'd be a lot grumpier here.

I have a wide variety of 2nd Round Tight End jokes for your viewing pleasure.

 

[Hoofbite]

Yep. Wheels fell off on Ware way faster than I ever thought they would, and it caught us at a really bad time. So we made a move in the second/third that I don't really like. I still like what we did better than the alternative of keeping Ware another year, paying him, and trying to address the DL with whatever was there for us at 47, though.

At least we took a good player. Had we moved up and taken somebody I didn't like, I'd be a lot grumpier here.

I'm not so sure the wheels have fallen off. He's gone though some injuries for sure but I think he still has some healthy playing time ahead of him.

 

[maxdallasfan]

You draft the BPA, not for need.

Even I know that.