Stopping the New Romo Myth

[Yakuza Rich]

I always find it laughable how the Romo haters state their case by comparing Romo to Brady, Manning, and Brees. So what are you saying that Romo isnt as good as the rest of those guys? Yah, so what. No one is going to claim he is.

That's false.

I've seen plenty of people that think he's better than Brady or Rodgers or Brees.

But he is definitely in the next tier of QB's. Which is plenty good.

I have readily admitted that more times than I can count. We are on the same page, but the blind lemmings see any perceived slight to Romo as grounds for smear campaigns.

And as far as Romo throwing the deep ball poorly from 2010 to 2013 the reason is quite obvious. The Oline sucked during those years and Romo had little if any time to throw deep. He was pressured much during that time. And with no running game to keep the defense honest up towards the line of scrimmage.

I haven't really delved into Romo throwing deep in this thread.

I don't think the deep ball is a strength of his. He's better at throwing those intermediate or 'deep intermediate' passes which he's quite good at. However, he did have plenty of time to throw in 2013. The pass protection was good that year. His problem was he just didn't throw the ball well that year. Some blame the back cyst, but Romo talked about how he was changing some of his throwing mechanics and I think that played a bigger role. The older you get, the longer it takes to incorporate new skills and it may work in practice, but in the game it's a completely different story. I think the Wednesdays off combined with the new mechanics becoming ingrained allowed him to throw the ball exceptionally well for most of last season.

But, some will still think of that as being a 'Romo hater' and some will try to say 'more is more' with Romo despite showing us metrics that point to the exact opposite.

I just prefer to let 'em bury themselves with their own inane logic, blatant deception and mistruths.






YR

 

[5Stars]

That's false.


I just prefer to let 'em bury themselves with their own inane logic, blatant deception and mistruths.






YR

Right, just like yours. You dog Romo all you want, but I bet you are peeing in you pants when he wins games for the Cowboys! smh

You are one of the many that just love to look at his mistakes, but remember this...when he is gone I want you to celebrate, OK? Hey, you and ufcrules could have a good time together! lol

 

[AdamJT13]

I would love to see you use some.

Funny how you don't mention Aaron Rodgers...who has an increase of +6.02 QB rating on pass attempts 31+. By your logic, that is the same context.

And when we look at Romo's passer rating on pass attempts 31+, they are horrifically low:

Romo

2010: 69.9
2011: 73.7
2012: 95.0
2013: 77.5
2014: 126.2 (when we regulated his throwing attempts)

Compared to Brady's:

2010: 91.2
2011: 124.9
2012: 90.2
2013: 83.9

Or to Manning's:

2010: 85.8
2012: 100.8
2013: 113.3
2014: 97.8

Or even to Brees':

2010: 80.1
2011: 107.0
2012: 85.6
2013: 91.0
2014: 96.0

Out of all of those seasons, Romo has the worst 3 seasons (2010, 2011 and 2013).

So much for context

Romo's career passer rating on attempts 31+ is 89.23. If that was his career rating, he'd still be among the top 20 all-time. How is that "horrifically low"?

Yes, a few seasons have been low, but passer ratings can be VERY volatile using small sample sizes. Tom Brady's was 49.2 one season, Peyton Manning's was 55.6 one year, Drew Brees has had seasons of 49.1 and 51.4, Ben Roethlisberger had a 42.4 one season, and Philip Rivers has had a 54.7, a 67.0 and a 50.6. Brady, Brees and Rodgers have had other seasons in the 70s as well. And like Romo, they've all had seasons in the 90s and 100s, too. (Romo also had a 115.1 on attempts 31+ in 2009, the year before the first year you showed.)

Also, there's a difference between choosing to throw more than 30 times in a game and needing to throw more than 30 times in a game. When your defense is allowing a lot of points, you're going to have games when you have to throw a lot to keep up or come back, and passer ratings can drop when you're in desperate situations. The other quarterbacks you mention have been mostly on good teams lately and haven't been in desperate situations as often as Romo. But note their career passer ratings when TRAILING in the fourth quarter -- Brees 90.2, Rodgers 88.2, Manning 87.4 and Brady 82.3. Should we call those "horrifically low"? (No, because the NFL average in those situations is 74.2.) Oh, and Romo's career rating when trailing in the fourth? 96.6.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Romo's career passer rating on attempts 31+ is 89.23. If that was his career rating, he'd still be among the top 20 all-time. How is that "horrifically low"?

The context of the discussion was on his last 5 seasons.

Yes, a few seasons have been low, but passer ratings can be VERY volatile using small sample sizes. Tom Brady's was 49.2 one season, Peyton Manning's was 55.6 one year, Drew Brees has had seasons of 49.1 and 51.4, Ben Roethlisberger had a 42.4 one season, and Philip Rivers has had a 54.7, a 67.0 and a 50.6. Brady, Brees and Rodgers have had other seasons in the 70s as well. And like Romo, they've all had seasons in the 90s and 100s, too. (Romo also had a 115.1 on attempts 31+ in 2009, the year before the first year you showed.)

The context was 'is less more with Romo.' As I have shown as well as you are showing, that is indeed the case.

When looking at the context of the conversation of the last 5 seasons between Romo, Brees, Manning and Brady, Romo had the 3 worst seasons during that time.

Furthermore, the best season was last year, when his attempts per game was at its lowest. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that we threw the ball less and were getting games of 31, 32, 37 and 41 attempts and he was more effective.

But AGAIN, my entire point is that this is about Romo and not about Tom Brady or other QB's that we shouldn't concern ourselves with. However, the logic used by Percy was horrifically flawed to begin with and he noticeably didn't put in Aaron Rodgers who has been more effective when throwing 31+ attempts.

Seriously, he's trying to tell us that Romo is not less effective when he throws 31+ passes...and then shows us stats where Romo is less effective throwing 31+ passes.

Also, there's a difference between choosing to throw more than 30 times in a game and needing to throw more than 30 times in a game. When your defense is allowing a lot of points[/quote}

You mean just like 2013 against the Chiefs were they lost 17-16 and after the Cowboys had a 10-7 lead after the first quarter and we threw the ball 42 times? Or like in the Green Bay game that year where we are up 23-3 at the half and throw the ball 48 times? Or how about the Washington game in week 1 where Romo threw the ball 47 times and we lost 13-7?

you're going to have games when you have to throw a lot to keep up or come back, and passer ratings can drop when you're in desperate situations. The other quarterbacks you mention have been mostly on good teams lately and haven't been in desperate situations as often as Romo. But note their career passer ratings when TRAILING in the fourth quarter -- Brees 90.2, Rodgers 88.2, Manning 87.4 and Brady 82.3. Should we call those "horrifically low"? (No, because the NFL average in those situations is 74.2.) Oh, and Romo's career rating when trailing in the fourth? 96.6.

The fact is that we've thrown the recklessly and ignored the running game for whatever reason and often times it has nothing to do with the defense and trying to get back into the game. I've shown this. And your 'trailing in the 4th quarter' evades the entire point I've made in this thread...when he throws more, it's a problem. And it has little to do with our defense 'forcing him to throw' as I've shown on numerous occasions. Stop trying to recirculate the point to something else in an attempt to try and prove me wrong because the numbers don't lie.






YR

 

[AdamJT13]

The context was 'is less more with Romo.' As I have shown as well as you are showing, that is indeed the case.

But you're completely ignoring cause and effect -- the WHY "less" is "more." His rating is better when he has fewer attempts in a game NOT because throwing more passes automatically makes him worse, it's because more passes typically are necessary only when things are not going as well for the team. That's why passer ratings drop when teams are trailing in the fourth quarter, for example. When you're playing well and winning, there's not usually any reason to pass more than 30-35 times.

Seriously, he's trying to tell us that Romo is not less effective when he throws 31+ passes...and then shows us stats where Romo is less effective throwing 31+ passes.

No, he did say Romo was less effective when he has to pass 31+ times. All he was saying was that Romo's dropoff was typical of most of the other elite quarterbacks (other than Rodgers, and he explained why).

 

[Toruk_Makto]

The context of the discussion was on his last 5 seasons.



The context was 'is less more with Romo.' As I have shown as well as you are showing, that is indeed the case.

When looking at the context of the conversation of the last 5 seasons between Romo, Brees, Manning and Brady, Romo had the 3 worst seasons during that time.

Furthermore, the best season was last year, when his attempts per game was at its lowest. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that we threw the ball less and were getting games of 31, 32, 37 and 41 attempts and he was more effective.

But AGAIN, my entire point is that this is about Romo and not about Tom Brady or other QB's that we shouldn't concern ourselves with. However, the logic used by Percy was horrifically flawed to begin with and he noticeably didn't put in Aaron Rodgers who has been more effective when throwing 31+ attempts.

Seriously, he's trying to tell us that Romo is not less effective when he throws 31+ passes...and then shows us stats where Romo is less effective throwing 31+ passes.

You're confusing correlation with causation. You realize that right?

 

[Yakuza Rich]

You're confusing correlation with causation. You realize that right?

No, I'm not.

I'm not correlating anything.

A correlation shows the relationship between 2 variables.

I'm showing, point blank, that Romo is not nearly as efficient...if not wholly inefficient during the past 5 seasons, when he starts throwing 31+ attempts. And it's on THOSE specific attempts that he's being measured.

A correlation would be more along the lines of 'there's a correlation between Romo's performance and the temperature.'




YR

 

[Idgit]

...A correlation would be more along the lines of 'there's a correlation between Romo's performance and the temperature.'


YR

Or maybe, there's a correlation between 'Romo not throwing efficiently' (in a small sample size) and 'being in situations where throwing the football is likely to be inefficient.'

 

[Yakuza Rich]

But you're completely ignoring cause and effect -- the WHY "less" is "more." His rating is better when he has fewer attempts in a game NOT because throwing more passes automatically makes him worse, it's because more passes typically are necessary only when things are not going as well for the team. That's why passer ratings drop when teams are trailing in the fourth quarter, for example. When you're playing well and winning, there's not usually any reason to pass more than 30-35 times.

That's patently false.

Just like when the Cowboys were winning 10-7 and we threw the ball 42 times against the Chiefs?

Or how about leading the Packers game, up by 23 points and throwing 48 times?

Or how about the Detroit game in 2011 where the Cowboys are up 27-3 with the ball and they end up throwing the ball 47 times?

The fact is that the Cowboys have been up plenty of times and have been 'playing well' and we still found a reason to throw the ball well over 30 times.

This all runs right in line with the scientific method. Just saying 'well, when you're playing well and winning there's no reason to throw it more than 30 times' when the actual subject has routinely thrown the ball more than 30 times despite the team playing well is making up a theory without actually examining it.

The fact of the matter is that when he gets more throw attempts in, he's not nearly as effective. Regardless if we are winning (which we have been on numerous occasions), in a close game (which was have on numerous occasions) or getting drilled (which has happened far less).

No, he did say Romo was less effective when he has to pass 31+ times. All he was saying was that Romo's dropoff was typical of most of the other elite quarterbacks (other than Rodgers, and he explained why).

He didn't show Rodgers which was cherry picking stats.

He also didn't show that over the past 5 seasons that Romo's actual performance was far worse than the QB's he mentioned. He also didn't want to put in Romo's 2010 season because he knew it looked really bad.





YR

 

[Toruk_Makto]

No, I'm not.

I'm not correlating anything.

A correlation shows the relationship between 2 variables.

I'm showing, point blank, that Romo is not nearly as efficient...if not wholly inefficient during the past 5 seasons, when he starts throwing 31+ attempts. And it's on THOSE specific attempts that he's being measured.

A correlation would be more along the lines of 'there's a correlation between Romo's performance and the temperature.'




YR

What relationship generally holds true when a team throws the ball a lot? What is happening in those game?

We are going to work this sloooowly for you.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Or maybe, there's a correlation between 'Romo not throwing efficiently' (in a small sample size) and 'being in situations where throwing the football is likely to be inefficient.'

And we have a winner!

Like this guy thinks there is a magical difference in throwing the ball 31 vs 32 times.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Or maybe, there's a correlation between 'Romo not throwing efficiently' (in a small sample size) and 'being in situations where throwing the football is likely to be inefficient.'

His inefficiency drops drastically right around 35 throws (yes, there's going to be some exceptions to the rule).

This isn't hard to figure out.

On average, there's usually 60 plays in a game. If you throw it 35 times, you are passing the ball nearly 60% of the time and running it 40% of the time.

It creates an unbalanced offense and you get into situations where the defense:

1. Knows you're not going to run the ball which prevents them from 'being honest' and takes away one of Romo's strengths, the play action pass because if you don't run, who are you fooling with play action?


2. As Cris Collinsworth pointed out last year, many defenses will blitz Romo early and often to see where he's going with the ball and then bait him into those throws and switch the coverage up.

Hard to quantify that, but it's a hypothesis that I am more interested in testing than just chalking it up to 'well, we were probably losing those games' when I've shown time and time again we weren't and 'well, other QB's drop as well', but giving an incomplete look at those metrics.

Either way, it's still about Romo and not what Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or any other QB does.

Less is more with Romo and if you want him to start throwing 40+ times a game like we did from 2010-2013 and often time for no unearthly reason, I think you're sorely mistaken.

And before the 'well, it depends on the run game' argument comes along...we saw how well Romo and the offense played at Philadelphia when we ran 31 times for 2.61 yards per carry and the defense gave up the lead (24-21 in the 3rd quarter) and gave up 27 points overall. Yet, Romo went 22 for 31 for 265 yards, 3 TD's and 0 INT's.

It's just a FACT....we have blindly thrown the ball way too often in the past when the defense has played well and the run game has gone well. And we've won games when we stuck with the run and were down to the opponent (oh...like the Rams game when we were down 21 points ON THE ROAD). The Romo blind lemmings can't face that fact and would rather have him play to his weaknesses rather than admit that he has limitations and less is more with Romo. All of the hypothesizing won't change the fact that in the case of Dallas and Romo, we've thrown away games by throwing too often.






YR

 

[Yakuza Rich]

What relationship generally holds true when a team throws the ball a lot? What is happening in those game?

We are going to work this sloooowly for you.

How about you look at the Patriots since 2007.

Then take a look at the Saints since Brees came along.

And then take a look at Kurt Warner's pass attempts in 2008 with the Cardinals.

And then take a look at where that Cardinals team finished the season.

And then you can look at the number of pass attempts and wins for each team per season for the past 10 seasons.

Then run a correlation coefficient and see what you come up with.

Slow is a good speed for you.





YR

 

[Yakuza Rich]

And we have a winner!

Like this guy thinks there is a magical difference in throwing the ball 31 vs 32 times.

So when you're winning games, sometimes by a substantial margin and you're in games where the score is close means that those are times when you are likely to be inefficient?

Care to have any proof.

And I never said there is a 'magical difference', I said that he starts to get less efficient after 30 throws.

That's the problem for you...you can't excuse those times when Dallas was winning or in a close game and we still continued to throw the ball for no reason and Romo was less efficient. And you can't excuse for those times when we were LOSING or in a close game and stuck with the run, kept down the amount of Romo's throws and his performance didn't tail off.

It's not like I didn't research any of this, unlike yourself.




YR

 

[blindzebra]

So when you're winning games, sometimes by a substantial margin and you're in games where the score is close means that those are times when you are likely to be inefficient?

Care to have any proof.

And I never said there is a 'magical difference', I said that he starts to get less efficient after 30 throws.

That's the problem for you...you can't excuse those times when Dallas was winning or in a close game and we still continued to throw the ball for no reason and Romo was less efficient. And you can't excuse for those times when we were LOSING or in a close game and stuck with the run, kept down the amount of Romo's throws and his performance didn't tail off.

It's not like I didn't research any of this, unlike yourself.




YR

Make up your mind because most of what I am reading is you *****ing about play calling..so is it that or Romo because you are wrong on either count.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

That's the problem for you...you can't excuse those times when Dallas was winning or in a close game and we still continued to throw the ball for no reason and Romo was less efficient.

YR

No that's your problem. Your entire argument hinges on a few outliers. We generally don't throw it 48 times when leading by 30. A) Because it's rare we are winning by 30. B) Because usually in those situations we run the ball.

 

[Idgit]

His inefficiency drops drastically right around 35 throws (yes, there's going to be some exceptions to the rule).

This isn't hard to figure out.

On average, there's usually 60 plays in a game. If you throw it 35 times, you are passing the ball nearly 60% of the time and running it 40% of the time.

It creates an unbalanced offense and you get into situations where the defense:

1. Knows you're not going to run the ball which prevents them from 'being honest' and takes away one of Romo's strengths, the play action pass because if you don't run, who are you fooling with play action?


2. As Cris Collinsworth pointed out last year, many defenses will blitz Romo early and often to see where he's going with the ball and then bait him into those throws and switch the coverage up.

Hard to quantify that, but it's a hypothesis that I am more interested in testing than just chalking it up to 'well, we were probably losing those games' when I've shown time and time again we weren't and 'well, other QB's drop as well', but giving an incomplete look at those metrics.

Either way, it's still about Romo and not what Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or any other QB does.

Less is more with Romo and if you want him to start throwing 40+ times a game like we did from 2010-2013 and often time for no unearthly reason, I think you're sorely mistaken.

And before the 'well, it depends on the run game' argument comes along...we saw how well Romo and the offense played at Philadelphia when we ran 31 times for 2.61 yards per carry and the defense gave up the lead (24-21 in the 3rd quarter) and gave up 27 points overall. Yet, Romo went 22 for 31 for 265 yards, 3 TD's and 0 INT's.

It's just a FACT....we have blindly thrown the ball way too often in the past when the defense has played well and the run game has gone well. And we've won games when we stuck with the run and were down to the opponent (oh...like the Rams game when we were down 21 points ON THE ROAD). The Romo blind lemmings can't face that fact and would rather have him play to his weaknesses rather than admit that he has limitations and less is more with Romo. All of the hypothesizing won't change the fact that in the case of Dallas and Romo, we've thrown away games by throwing too often.

YR

Yeah, that sounds like you have an issue with some of the play calling, or with the changes we've made at the line in recent years when we audible into a passing play. Beyond that, it's just a really small sample size that's constrained to a 5 year period that--whether you want to admit it or not--does contain situations where you'd expect it to be challenging for a QB to throw the football so often, anyway.

I didn't hear Collinsworth make that comment last year, either, but all you have to do is look at Romo's passer rating by quarter to know that, if teams are doing that, it's not helping them. They blitz Romo early and often because for a long time our interior OL wasn't handling it well. Including the first game in WAS last season where it wasn't handling it well at all. There's not a QB on the planet who performs better with pressure up the middle, so, that's really not a knock, either. But eventually, he tends to figure out what defenses are doing and where to put the ball. He gets better typically as the game goes on, and not worse. I mean that generally and not as any function of the number of times he actually throws the football.

For my part, I honestly can't remember a QB as good as Romo is who's been as maligned as he has been over the course of his career. I think it's crazy. I've always thought it was crazy. And when the guy leads the entire league based off of his performance just this last season, you have a hard time painting a picture that the people arguing his case are either blind or lemmings. It's a lot more likely they're just looking at the evidence and interpreting it correctly.

 

[d_dub88]

Hey Beast..

Good post but U know I'm going to show up and spread some turnips on your pretty salad (grin).

I watch with interest all the videos being posted on Dallascowboys.com where Witten and Romo insist they are starting over with a NEW team that still has to re-commit to 2015.

I completely agree.

You are spending a lot of time justifying your points..

which is all good and spins my head where you want me to go in my logic.

But I think..after much thought..

that we are in serious trouble and the leaders at least on offense..

are sounding the alarms.

We as fans are like watchers of the news at 6pm.

We can clearly see what happened. The reporters tell us. But the big problem is..

..now what happens.?

None of them can shed any light on that and we have to tune back in at 10pm?

Same thing here.

I'm still of the opinion that Romo is like Danny White. not like Roger Staubach.

Not like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady.

Danny White also won a lot during the season..

Got into a bunch more playoffs and won more than Romo EVER will in his career..

Danny had a championship defense left over from the Staubach years and offensive weapons galore.

But Danny couldn't dismiss the pressure of being the Cowboys QB and succeed.

Don Meredith was the same.

Romo..is the same.

All this rebuilding is for our next QB mark my words.

Now after this season..if Romo doesn't firmly plant a SB victory banner in our end zone..

the Big Experiment ends with Tony.

Not for one second do I believe Jones is going to resign Dez at a Franchise choking deal..

Resign all our ÜBER OL and all these guys we are grooming on D to lineup at the winning ticket window for their new deals..

and still be wringing our hands over whether or not Romo can do it or not.

We'll see.

You start off saying this is a new year, a new team even. Then you compare Romo to White and Meredith and say it's the same old, same old. Do you really think JJ will dismantle this team if Romo can't do it? I can see him going back over the edge to try to sign Luck or Wilson next season but I don't think he would let this much talent walk.

 

[TheDude]

That's an easy one: you see lots of things that aren't really happening when you watch football, apparently.

LOL
You slow played that one. check raise

 

[Yakuza Rich]

2010 - 2013 seasons, under Romo:

2010

@ Washington, Final Score 7-13, 47 attempts

Chicago, Final Score 20-27 (score was 20-24 after the 3rd quarter), 51 attempts

Tennessee, Final Score 27-34 (score was 17-20 after the 3rd quarter), 46 attempts


2011

@ NJY Final Score 24-27 (score was 24-10 in the 4th quarter with 10 minutes left), 36 pass attempts

Detroit, Final score 30-34, (score was 27-3 in the 3rd quarter WITH THE BALL), 47 pass attempts

@ New England, Final Score 16-20 (score was 16-13 in the 4th quarter before final possession), 41 pass atempts

@ Philadelphia, Final Score 7-34, 35 pass attempts

@ Washington, Final Score 27-24 in Overtime (score was 24-17 Dallas) 37 pass attempts (but in Overtime, Murray had 25 carries)

@ Arizona, Final Score 13-19 in Overtime (score was 13-6 Dallas after 3rd quarter) 42 pass attempts (Murray had 12 carries)

@ NYG, Final Score 14-31, 37 pass attempts


2012

@ Seattle 7-27, 40 attempts

Tampa, Final score 16-10, 39 attempts

Chicago, Final Score 18-34, 43 attempts

NY Giants, Final Score 24-29 (score was 24-23 with 11 minutes left) 62 pass attempts

Cleveland, Final Score 23-20, (although score was 3-13 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd and went to 10-13 in the beginning of the 4th quarter), 50 attempts

Washington, Final Score 31-38 (score was 3-28, but was also 3-0 after first quarter and had 62 pass attempts, we never intended on running the ball).

@ Cinci, Final Score 20-19, Score was 10-13 at the half, 43 attempts

Pittsburgh, Final Score 27-24 (no lead more than 7 points), 42 attempts to Murrays 14 runs

@ New Orleans 31-34 (score was 17-24 after the 3rd quarter), 43 pass attempts to Murray's 11 attempts

@ Washington, 18-28, Score was 10-14 to start the 4th quarter, 37 pass attempts (but Murray did have 17 rushes)


2013

NYG, Final Score 36-31 (score was 27-10 with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter), 49 pass attempts

@KC, Final Score 16-17 (close score througout), 42 pass attempts

@ Denver, 48-51, 36 pass attempts (great game, but threw a pick on his 36th throw)

@ PHI, 17-3, 47 pass attempts

Minnesota, Final Score 27-23, (score was 20-10 in the 3rd quarter), 51 pass attempts

@NYG 24-21 (had a 21-6 lead), 38 pass attempts

Green Bay, 36-37 (up 26-3 at halftime), 48 pass attempts


So, let's count this up where we had pass attempts of more than 33 pass attempts (let's not nitpick over 1, 2 or 3 more attempts than the norm). There's 27 games listed. I will throw out the Washington game in 2011 as it was an OT game and he only threw it 37 times and we ran it 25 times. That many throws was more of a function of having more plays.

I counted 20 of those games where we weren't down by some huge deficit and *had* to throw the ball to get into the game. So in 76% of those games we egregiously threw the ball and did NOT have to play catch up.

And we had plenty of games that were ridiculous where we were throwing it 45+ times for almost no reason whatsoever.






YR