Strange stat about Romo's int's the last three seasons

[TheMarathonContinues]

I won't argue against them but when Romo has to be flawless for the team to stand a chance, every INT is ill-timed.

EXACTLY.

 

[Gameover]

I won't argue against them but when Romo has to be flawless for the team to stand a chance, every INT is ill-timed.

Couldn't you say the same about manning?

 

[SDCowboy]

Couldn't you say the same about manning?

He doesn't have to be near perfect to win games (though he has been this season) but if we had won that game, I wouldn't be blaming blaming Peyton for his INT if I was a Broncos fan.

 

[SHAMSzy]

Does anyone even know what this means? In general, every giveaway is bad and every takeaway is good. Even I, as a mere fan, understand this. But, what is a 20% loss in "win probability". It sounds like nonsense to me.

It is using the ESPN game predictor I believe, which predicts the % chance each team has of winning the game based on the current situation of time, down, and score. Basically the interception swings the machine by 20% against the team who threw the pick, and Romo is leading that blah blah.

 

[AbeBeta]

This was posted beside Dallas' Power ranking this week on ESPN. I'm not knocking Romo by no means, just wanted to share since they must dig deep to come up with a stat like this....

"Tony Romo has six interceptions during the past three seasons that have dropped Dallas' win probability by at least 20 percent. Matt Schaub and Eli Manning (seven) have the most."

ESPN Power Rankings

Be useful if they could point the exact plays.

Also, if you are the only reason your team is a game, it stands to reason that you would end up being the reason you lose.

Also #2: in 2012 he threw more than 40 passes in a game EIGHT times. In 2011 he did it three times and in 2012 he's already done it twice. Guess, what? If you are putting the ball exclusively in your QBs hands and making him pass nearly every down, he is far more likely to throw picks.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Not surprising to me. Dallas plays a ridiculous number of close games. Those are games where one play can create a big swing in win probability.

 

[Tabascocat]

On this forum anyone will argue about anything.

Whatever. The sky isn't blue and the earth isn't round!

 

[texbumthelife]

Be useful if they could point the exact plays.

Also, if you are the only reason your team is a game, it stands to reason that you would end up being the reason you lose.

Also #2: in 2012 he threw more than 40 passes in a game EIGHT times. In 2011 he did it three times and in 2012 he's already done it twice. Guess, what? If you are putting the ball exclusively in your QBs hands and making him pass nearly every down, he is far more likely to throw picks.

Guess what changed this season? Romo is calling his own plays. It's not a fluke and it's already been acknowledged by the coaches and players and talked about to exhaustion here. I don't think they need to take it away, but I think they should reel him in just a little.

 

[texbumthelife]

Whatever. The sky isn't blue and the earth isn't round!

I will prove you wrong or my name isn't Christopher Columbus!

 

[Arkyvarminter]

Also, if you throw for 500 yards, your more than likey going to have at least one pick.........

 

[ChooChoo73]

I wonder what the win percentage does when he throws a TD? or 5 of them? He has had some bad plays but they are not worthy of the scrutiny they get. There are probably 5-7 QBs clearly better than he is tops.

 

[Idgit]

Does anyone even know what this means? In general, every giveaway is bad and every takeaway is good. Even I, as a mere fan, understand this. But, what is a 20% loss in "win probability". It sounds like nonsense to me.

It sounds to me like it's just a measure of when in the game the interceptions occur. It would make sense, and explain the impression that casual fans have that Tony 'chokes.'

 

[bracey]

I'm sorry but when your QB goes 5 TD to 1 INT and 500+ yards with a 150 QB rating, you shouldn't lose the game, regardless of when the interception is thrown.

When your team is in a contest of "whoever has the ball last wins", there's something wrong with the defense, not the quarterback who's in the middle of outplaying Peyton Manning.

Here's a fun table to play with to see the data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...o_have_passed_for_400_or_more_yards_in_a_game

I was about to argue with you. Of the 15 500+ yard passing games 7 were losses. So about half.

If you sort that list by QB rating something does stand out like a sore thumb though. Every single 400+ yard game with a QB rating from 158.3 - 131.3 is a W, except for Romo.

 

[AbeBeta]

It sounds to me like it's just a measure of when in the game the interceptions occur. It would make sense, and explain the impression that casual fans have that Tony 'chokes.'

The problem I have with that is that his "choking" often comes after he's done an amazing job of keep us in the game. So, if he sucked more, he'd really have little chance to choke

 

[burmafrd]

Here's a fun table to play with to see the data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...o_have_passed_for_400_or_more_yards_in_a_game

I was about to argue with you. Of the 15 500+ yard passing games 7 were losses. So about half.

If you sort that list by QB rating something does stand out like a sore thumb though. Every single 400+ yard game with a QB rating from 158.3 - 131.3 is a W, except for Romo.

It was a 151 rating for Romo right? I wonder if any QB in NFL history ever was on the losing team with a rating that high.

 

[phildadon86]

On this forum anyone will argue about anything.

Thats the point of a public forum no? lol sorry i had too.

 

[Ring Leader]

Congratulations on bring sucked. On Sunday Eli threw 3 picks, Newton threw 3 picks, Brady and Wilson threw game ending picks and Schaub threw yet another pick 6, and so on, and so on, and so on. Top quarterbacks, including those not names Romo, make mistakes all the time and sometimes at the worst times. Why is it that Romo makes headlines when the others don't? Because you have been sucked and sucked hard by a group of prolific sensationalistic media suckers, who if they can't suck you in - their relevance, ratings, and existence would suck.

 

[WV Cowboy]

wow, so 6 picks in 48 games is what we are talking about.

 

[Meat-O-Rama]

Does anyone even know what this means? In general, every giveaway is bad and every takeaway is good. Even I, as a mere fan, understand this. But, what is a 20% loss in "win probability". It sounds like nonsense to me.

It seems pretty simple to me. If you throw an INT with 2 minutes left in the game and it puts the other team in scoring position to take the lead, that has a direct effect on your ability to win the game. The same INT thrown in the 1st quarter does not have nearly the same direct effect on the game as there is still plenty of time to recover even if the other team scores a TD. You've still got plenty of time to catch up and pass the other team. This is true regardless of who's fault the INT is.

 

[tecolote]

So it wasn't an ill-timed interception? As opposed to say, an interception in the second quarter when you're leading by 14?

Last year the Cowboys never led for the whole game, the defense is horrible, as soon as the offense scores the opposing team comes back down the field and has a score of their own. Son in escence, almost every int Tony throws comes in a close game, that's why they always come at a critical time. How many times have we led by 14 in the second quarter in the Garrett era? I'm pretty sure it did not happen last year.