Sturm concedes: passing almost the exclusive way to win

[theogt]

It's a combonation of running the football and keeping your QB upright. I'd wager a bet that if a team has a greater ypc and allows the least QB pressure wins.

I can run the statistical studies for sacks -- pressures would be a little difficult -- but we already know that there's no correlation whatsoever between YPC and winning percentage.

Now, yards per catch has a much higher correlation with winning percentage. And QB rating has the highest correlation among official statistics.

 

[theogt]

Here are the correlations with winning percentage. The higher the number, the more it correlates with winning. As in every year, rushing efficiency has almost no correlation with winning percentage.

QB Rate		0.807753839
P. YPA		0.797132861
P. TD		0.754180769
C. Pct		0.690744746
P. Yds		0.679674154
PA		0.678537035
R. TD		0.665535467
Int		0.640438267
Sck		0.53021238
P. Comp		0.464041744
R. 1st%		0.358658295
R. FUM		0.357554002
P. Att/G	0.13938734
P. Att		0.138928536
R. Att/G	0.116174911
R. Att		0.115638603
R. Avg		0.094720547
R. Yds		0.040125207

 

[Hoofbite]

yards per carry?

 

[ScipioCowboy]

I can run the statistical studies for sacks -- pressures would be a little difficult -- but we already know that there's no correlation whatsoever between YPC and winning percentage.

Now, yards per catch has a much higher correlation with winning percentage. And QB rating has the highest correlation among official statistics.

This is absolutely true.

In essence, Sturm is saying this: If a team has the personnel to line up in shotgun, throw the ball 35 times per game, and still pass efficiently, then, by all means, it should do it.

However, if a team is playing with a limited quarterback or limited receiving personnel, throwing the ball 35 times a game is probably going to result in turnovers and inefficiency. Consequently, to have an efficient passing game, this team must limit its pass attempts to 15 or 20 per game.

 

[Cover 2]

Here are the correlations with winning percentage. The higher the number, the more it correlates with winning. As in every year, rushing efficiency has almost no correlation with winning percentage.

QB Rate        0.807753839
P. YPA        0.797132861
P. TD        0.754180769
C. Pct        0.690744746
P. Yds        0.679674154
PA        0.678537035
R. TD        0.665535467
Int        0.640438267
Sck        0.53021238
P. Comp        0.464041744
R. 1st%        0.358658295
R. FUM        0.357554002
P. Att/G    0.13938734
P. Att        0.138928536
R. Att/G    0.116174911
R. Att        0.115638603
R. Avg        0.094720547
R. Yds        0.040125207

It's pretty obvious stuff. It's too bad not everyone can realize ypc means very little when it comes to winning.

 

[T-RO]

Here are the correlations with winning percentage. The higher the number, the more it correlates with winning. As in every year, rushing efficiency has almost no correlation with winning percentage.

QB Rate		0.807753839
P. YPA		0.797132861
P. TD		0.754180769
C. Pct		0.690744746
P. Yds		0.679674154
PA		0.678537035
R. TD		0.665535467
Int		0.640438267
Sck		0.53021238
P. Comp		0.464041744
R. 1st%		0.358658295
R. FUM		0.357554002
P. Att/G	0.13938734
P. Att		0.138928536
R. Att/G	0.116174911
R. Att		0.115638603
R. Avg		0.094720547
R. Yds		0.040125207

theogt

That is as airtight as it gets....if one seeks to be objective about it. Clearly some fans here run away from numbers as telling as these.

 

[T-RO]

Consequently, to have an efficient passing game, this team must limit its pass attempts to 15 or 20 per game.

Wow. I honestly can't believe you wrote that. You want us to pass 15-20 times per game!?!?!?!?!??!

We have the 4th most efficient quarterback in the NFC and average 8.2 yards for every attempt.

Unbelievable.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Wow. I honestly can't believe you wrote that. You want us to pass 15-20 times per game!?!?!?!?!??!

We have the 4th most efficient quarterback in the NFC and average 8.2 yards for every attempt.

Unbelievable.

Um, no.

"This team" was not referring to the Cowboys. "This team" was the hypothetical team I had created in the previous sentence.

The Jets are a prime example of such a team; they have a rookie quarterback who probably won't be efficient unless his pass attempts are severely limited.

 

[T-RO]

ScipioCowboy: throwing the ball 35 times a game is probably going to result in turnovers and inefficiency.

Let's see. In our dynamic 3 game streak beating the Saints, Skins on the Road and Philly...

How many times did we throw?
34, 38, 34

And what were the results
Romo. NFL Player of the Month
900 + yards in passing
1 Turnover
3/3 HUGE WINS

 

[T-RO]

Um, no.

"This team" was not referring to the Cowboys. "This team" was the hypothetical team I had created in the previous sentence.

OK...I'll take your word for it. My bad.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

OK...I'll take your word for it. My bad.

You don't have to "take my word for it." You can read it yourself. It's 3 postings up.

 

[BrassCowboy]

Clearly you and the dinos that argue with me aren't arguing the facts or paying any attention to them.
.

are you trying to imply that an all out passing attack to win games is fun to watch? You cant be serious in thinking todays NFL is funner to watch than say the Cowboys of the early nineties.

There is a reason why the NFL stands for No Fun League. You can claim the majority of people who feel this way are dinos til the sun goes down, but the more rules the NFL implies to restrict players from playing the game the more this game looks like rehearsals rather than competition.

There are alot of rules I would remove because frankly players should be able to be competitive. The rules to handcuff DBs is the only reason that teams need to pass to win. Years past, it took talent and wit to overcome a defense, now it takes a deep ball hoping to get that quick pass interference call.

I could give you a list of rules that should be gone, but that is for another thread.

 

[T-RO]

are you trying to imply that an all out passing attack to win games is fun to watch? You cant be serious in thinking todays NFL is funner to watch than say the Cowboys of the early nineties.

There is a reason why the NFL stands for No Fun League. You can claim the majority of people who feel this way are dinos til the sun goes down, but the more rules the NFL implies to restrict players from playing the game the more this game looks like rehearsals rather than competition.

There are alot of rules I would remove because frankly players should be able to be competitive. The rules to handcuff DBs is the only reason that teams need to pass to win. Years past, it took talent and wit to overcome a defense, now it takes a deep ball hoping to get that quick pass interference call.

I could give you a list of rules that should be gone, but that is for another thread.

Yes. I think high scoring games are more fun. Apparently the league does too and they base their decisions upon TV ratings.

I remember three previous decades of football but think this era is the most fun to watch.

 

[dcfanatic]

Yes. I think high scoring games are more fun. Apparently the league does too and they base their decisions upon TV ratings.

I remember three previous decades of football but think this era is the most fun to watch.

Listen up Snookie...

Garrett postgame on balanced attack after win over Eagles tonight

:laugh1:

 

[BrassCowboy]

Yes. I think high scoring games are more fun. Apparently the league does too and they base their decisions upon TV ratings.

I remember three previous decades of football but think this era is the most fun to watch.

well, I guess THAT settles it then

I guess I compare it to all these teens who like rap music because to them they prefer hype over substance and good music.

As far as tv ratings, what else is there. The NFL could sell them salt water and the people will buy it cuz that is all there is.

It is like the flea flicker and these triple reverses, they are neat to see on occasion but they hardly constitute a solid gameplan. That is why they are called trick plays and not playcalling. Same reason all these high passing teams fizzle out, because once teams figure them out then they have nothing. And yes, you can look at all those teams you brought up, teams like St. Louis, Indy, New England, they all just are secondhand to a real defense.

Look at us last night, Eagles are a onesided team and who were they? We can key on their offense and stop it. How about our offense? If we didn't run Jones and Choice like we did and balance that with a solid passing attack, we would of been finished before it started like the Eagles were. A balanced attack destroys the mentality of a defense and it wears them down, that is what made our early 90s team so great was Emmitt Smith and how we balanced him well with our passing attack.

You sound like you are very young so you probably do not know what real football was like, so I will take it easy and let it be at that.

 

[T-RO]

Listen up Snookie...

Garrett postgame on balanced attack after win over Eagles tonight

:laugh1:

I love the word balance. Garrett likes the word balance. Aikman and Cowher too. All the guys who talk about a pass-centric offense still want balance.

But the word is defined differently than the DINOs.

We passed over 60-40 while we were buildiing our lead (winning the game) yesterday. Then we ran a lot of clock in the second half by rushing.

 

[T-RO]

It is like the flea flicker and these triple reverses,

No a solid passing game is NOTHING like those trick plays. Romo passing to Witten is one of the most reliable, repeatable success plays the Cowboys use. Did you see our third down efficiency with Romo throwing the ball yesterday?

Yes, you can look at all those teams you brought up, teams like St. Louis, Indy, New England, they all just are secondhand to a real defense.

I guess you don't like Super Bowl championship football of the past decade.

You sound like you are very young so you probably do not know what real football was like, so I will take it easy and let it be at that.

Wrong. I am Troy Aikman's age...and I am saying VERBATIM the exact things he, Dungee, Bilichick and Cowher are saying about today's game. Are they not old enough for you either?

 

[Hoofbite]

I love the word balance. Garrett likes the word balance. Aikman and Cowher too. All the guys who talk about a pass-centric offense still want balance.

But the word is defined differently than the DINOs.

We passed over 60-40 while we were buildiing our lead (winning the game) yesterday. Then we ran a lot of clock in the second half by rushing.

You love the word balance?

You've been preaching at least a 60/40 run to pass ratio and there have been a few times where you mentioned 70/30.

You call that balance?

 

[BrassCowboy]

No a solid passing game is NOTHING like those trick plays. Romo passing to Witten is one of the most reliable, repeatable success plays the Cowboys use. Did you see our third down efficiency with Romo throwing the ball yesterday?

you got me mixed up here. Romo is THE guy and without him, forget it. Him and witten together is like gold. I have nothing wrong with and expect a good passing game, and yes, third downs is a good time to throw the ball.
I always hated when coaches of old would run on third and 10. Never understood that.

I guess you don't like Super Bowl championship football of the past decade.

alright, I may of overstated my point, i will give you that because I do love football as nothing comes close to it, maybe basketball but even that I do not follow anywhere close.
Like I wrote above, unless you are the baltimore ravens of 2003 (+/- a year) with Trent Dilfer as QB, you cannot go very far if your QB cannot deliver.
Just mentioning the fact that if you are too one dimensional in EITHER running or passing, you will be figured out sooner or later and will fizzle no matter how good you are at it.
The no fun is happening because we get these stupid pass interference calls and defensive holding for defenders and WRs just playing for the ball. This may as a controversy but that PI against the eagle who was defending against Austin in the endzone was a bad call. Yeah he touch austin's arm, but really? Thank god we would of still beat them, but I am not biased in my opinion. leading with elbows, crowns of helmut, crevice of your toes and whatever else they now call penalty on is just stupid. Let these guys play football. that call on Hamlin was BS.

Wrong. I am Troy Aikman's age...and I am saying VERBATIM the exact things he, Dungee, Bilichick and Cowher are saying about today's game. Are they not old enough for you either?

not denying today's game has turned into that, read above

 

[T-RO]

You love the word balance?

You've been preaching at least a 60/40 run to pass ratio and there have been a few times where you mentioned 70/30.

You call that balance?

60/40 or more passing is the new balance. Get with the program. It's going to come down to the guns who can throw for 300 plus.

The Jets and Ravens are still alive because of elite pass rush and secondary players like Revis. But they won't stay in the playoffs long running the ball so much. The Cowboys have both a good passing attack AND god pass defense, which makes them very dangerous.