Sturm concedes: passing almost the exclusive way to win

[T-RO]

Sturm
http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2010/01/nfl-playoff-fun.html

I commend him for his insights. Though he's a year behind T-RO, the PASS DOCTOR, at least he's keen enough to see it (once the tidal wave of data and my million posts smack him in the face.) Give Sturm credit for at least being ahead of some of the dinos around here, who still can't buy a clue from the LOST-IN-THE-70'S discount store.





This morning, I wanted to update you on a few things that have appeared on the blog in the past, but we lead off with some new territory:

Item #1 - The 4,000 Yard Club.

Those of us who love the NFL and dabble in stats could not help take note of the new trend in the NFL that has been slowly moving like an iceberg for years, but has taken to a new extreme: Prolific Passing is at an all-time high. In fact, the guys at the NFL office tweeted this yesterday:

NFL QBs set record for most 4,000-yard passing seasons (10) & most 25 TD pass seasons (12). Previous bests were 7 & 10 in '07.

A decade or two ago, when someone would have a silly yardage season (and 4,000 yards used to be silly) it was always justified as that QB played on a team that was coming from behind and passing the ball because his team was lousy. Put another way, the only teams with gaudy passing stats were not good teams.

Times have changed. I wonder if the NFL has gone too far with its further evolution of the passing rules that now make it almost impossible for the defense to have a fair chance.

Regardless, football coaches and strategists figure out how to use the new rules to their advantage, and the sport has evolved to a point where passing for huge numbers is no longer a means to come from behind - rather it has become almost the exclusive way to win in this era.

As you saw above, there have never been as many 4,000 yard passers. And, 7 of those 10 made the playoffs, with 2 more (Schaub and Roethlisberger) in the mix until the final day, and the 10th was Eli Manning, who was part of an amazing collapse in the last 2 weeks of the season by the Giants.

All of the top 6 seeds in the NFL playoffs had 4,000/25 TD QBs, and Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb would both be added to this stack if they had been healthy for the entire season.

Only 3 teams made the playoffs with out a member of this 4,000/25 TD club, really. And they were all in the AFC. The Bengals with Carson Palmer, the Ravens with Joe Flacco, and the Jets with the rookie Mark Sanchez. None of these 3 are any more than a longshot to win multiple playoff games this year. And, if rated in a power poll, these might be teams #10, #11, and #12 in the tournament.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Sturm
http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2010/01/nfl-playoff-fun.html

I commend him for his insights. Though he's a year behind T-RO, the PASS DOCTOR, at least he's keen enough to see it (once the tidal wave of data and my million posts smack him in the face.) Give Sturm credit for at least being ahead of some of the dinos around here, who still can't buy a clue from the LOST-IN-THE-70'S discount store.

Where, precisely, has Bob Sturm denied the importance of the passing game? He merely points out that Dallas runs the ball well.

 

[T-RO]

Sturm had his panties in a wad about the Cowboys passing too much several times this season.

 

[gmoney112]

Is the passing era a result of more domed stadiums? A solid running game isn't near as important when weather quits being a factor.

 

[T-RO]

Is the passing era a result of more domed stadiums? A solid running game isn't near as important when weather quits being a factor.

Maybe a little, but wet or frozen fields have seen some of the most prolific passing days in NFL history. Wind is the only real downer to a big time quarterback nowadays.

 

[BrassCowboy]

I believe it is the new rules that make you want to pass to win. DBs can barely touch receivers anymore and DL & LBs have so many rules that curtail hitting the QB a certain way.

Some may like this new pass happy NFL, but even today I would use a more balanced attack and I think we got some of that.

I absolutely love those 15 play 12 minute drives. I think it proves a more dominant team rather than 3 throws and td. good when needed, but personal opinion here i guess

Our team in the early 90s was a perfect example of what a balanced attack team should be, but since then the No Fun League has downgraded the play with all these rules that make players worry more about getting a penalty rather than just playing the game. I think too many times, players are called for PI and defensive holding. let them play. Same with QB, he has pads on too last time I saw, he is going to get hit.

 

[jackrussell]

Sturm had his panties in a wad about the Cowboys passing too much several times this season.

There were times they passed too much this season.

 

[ljs44]

Adam has been saying this for year. The efficiency with which a team passes and how well the Defense prevents the other teams passing efficiency are athe keys to winning almost all games

 

[MONT17]

Draft more pass rushers!

 

[YosemiteSam]

I can tell you why there is more passing in the game now. Teams are deathly afraid that if they don't get the ball to their receivers they might become the next TO. :laugh2:

 

[Temo]

Adam has been saying this for year. The efficiency with which a team passes and how well the Defense prevents the other teams passing efficiency are athe keys to winning almost all games

Many people have been saying that for a very long time.

 

[casmith07]

There were times they passed too much this season.

This.

Quit the agenda, T-RO. Nobody cares as long as the Cowboys win.

 

[lkelly]

Interesting that in the 2007 season the champion Giants were 21st in passing. In the 2005 season, the champion Steelers were 24th. The 2002 champ Bucs were 15th, the 2001 Pats were 22nd, and the 2000 Ravens were 22nd.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Interesting that in the 2007 season the champion Giants were 21st in passing. In the 2005 season, the champion Steelers were 24th. The 2002 champ Bucs were 15th, the 2001 Pats were 22nd, and the 2000 Ravens were 22nd.

Damn, I wish we were 22nd in passing. :laugh2:

 

[Gaede]

Sturm had his panties in a wad about the Cowboys passing too much several times this season.

??Probably because they did??

 

[ljs44]

Interesting that in the 2007 season the champion Giants were 21st in passing. In the 2005 season, the champion Steelers were 24th. The 2002 champ Bucs were 15th, the 2001 Pats were 22nd, and the 2000 Ravens were 22nd.

Its not total yards, its the efficiency in how they get them.

 

[Doomsday101]

T-RO so I guess that long run by Felix for the TD upset you?

 

[TwoDeep3]

Sturm had his panties in a wad about the Cowboys passing too much several times this season.

He had his "panties in a wad" because they ran the shotgun and passed out of it exclusively so when they backed into this formation it told the defense what was coming.

That hardly equates to the way you colored his comments.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Sturm had his panties in a wad about the Cowboys passing too much several times this season.

Assuming Sturm did have "his panties in a wad about the Cowboys passing too much," it's not synonymous with denying the importance of the passing game.

Bob Sturm does only two things: Collates data on the Cowboys, and explains its significance. Throughout the year, the data led him to the following conclusions:

1) The Cowboys were a good running team who achieved excellent efficiency out of their two and three tight end set.

2) However, especially early in the season, the Cowboys were very inefficient in their S11 (Shotgun, 11 personnel) formation.

3) When asked why teams such as Indianapolis and New England were so effective out of S11 while Dallas struggled, Sturm replied "personnel." The Cowboys simply lacked the personnel to line up in shotgun 70 percent of the time; they did not have the requisite depth at receiver and couldn't generate a running game out of the shotgun.

Sturm never railed against pass heavy attacks. He was simply expounding upon Dallas' weaknesses. Wanting an overly pass heavy attack and actually having the personnel to mount a pass heavy attack are completely different things.

 

[T-RO]

I absolutely love those 15 play 12 minute drives. I think it proves a more dominant team rather than 3 throws and td. good when needed, but personal opinion here i guess

I love them too but more often than not that kind of offense will get you beat. We had a 10 minute 90 yard drive on the Giants in the 08 playoff game and lost mainly because of a hanful of big plays. I could go on and on with examples.

It's just far more statistically difficult to sustain 3 or 4 such Touchdown drives and nowadays you have to score 20+ to consistently win.