Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[ufcrules1]

Dude, you've been pissing in Romo's cornflakes as long as I've seen you on this forum.

Yes, I have.. that is correct. I liked Romo when he first started with the Cowboys but over time I saw him for what he was. A really good QB during the regular season, but nothing special during the most important games. Win/In and playoffs. I realized he would never lead this team deep into the playoffs or to a super bowl.

Dak on the other hand seems extremely special right now. If he can continue to improve his game, I can certainly see him LEADING the team to the super bowl. Dak is a winner and a leader. Romo was neither here.

 

[ufcrules1]

While saying Dak and Dez are winning in spite of the coaching staff..

Yes, they are winning in spite of the coaching staff. This same coaching staff won exactly 1 game without Romo last year. We had the same exact Oline, and a top 5 RB. So what does that tell you? Our coaching on the offensive side of the ball is not very good at all.

 

[Future]

Yup his greatest season 10 yrs into the league.

Dak 7.9 avg and on par with or slightly above or below Romo in every stat as a rookie. AS A ROOKIE. People want to talk about Dak's recent struggles against two of the top defenses in the NFL. And want to do the whole Romo would do this and that. I wonder if they even remember how many slow starts Romo had in 2014. More then a few games where he stunk it up in the first half only to have Murray save him in the 2nd half.

Tony never had a run game to help him until 2014...

Murray never bailed out Tony Romo. Was it 3 games Murray lost a fumble in the first quarter that got returned for a TD in the first six weeks of the season - or whatever it was. No, Romo wasn't always great, but his highs were much higher than Dak's have been.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Sturm totally misses the point. Apparently, Jerry Falwell didn't teach mathematics very well at Liberty University, his alma mater.

Yards Per Attempt can be very misleading.

If you throw passes for 8 yards on 20 consecutive passes, you have a tremendous YPA. But you are dink and dunk.

If you throw 20 passes for 30, 2, 3, 20, 0, 1, 50, 4, etc, and total 160 yards, then you have the same YPA. But you aren't dink and dunk.

Reason number 1,000 why I hate statistics.

Sturm did reference air yards as well. Being 5th in the league in air yards per attempt establishes pretty definitively that you're not dink and dunk.

In any event, there are logical errors in your criticism of YPA as a measurement of a QB's tendency to throw downfield vs. underneath. It's true that YPA is a poor measurement of that, but it's clearly not for the reasons you suggest. In particular:

If you throw 20 passes for 30, 2, 3, 20, 0, 1, 50, 4, etc, and total 160 yards, then you have the same YPA. But you aren't dink and dunk.

Your conclusion is precipitous. A QB could generate that stat line throwing nothing but one-yard quick outs on every play (the balance of his YPA would be YAC). That's the very definition of dink and dunk. Which should tell you that the right way to zero in on whether a QB is dink and dunk is by separating out YAC and looking only at air yards per attempt.

There's no reason to hate statistics so long as you're looking at the right ones.

 

[StarWiz2]

I was thinking the other day about the Romo vs Dak arguments, and how inane they seem to be when we are 12-2. Clearly Dak is a winning QB, and now a pro-bowl caliber QB, and maybe most importantly a conservative QB much like Brady and not a gunslinger like Romo. As I never liked Romo's style of play, I can't be an objective analyst in these arguments, but I think I can understand the passion of the posters who do love his style of play, who do want him to lead this great team to a super bowl win, and who believe a veteran QB ala Romo is crucial for a successful playoff drive to the super bowl.

That last part is a legitimate concern. The first two come from a place I think I can also understand, because if this were about Emmitt(if he were still playing) vs Elliot, hands down I would want Emmitt in there no matter what. And don't you even try to persuade me otherwise. Don't you throw stats at me either. Don't you say nothin' 'cos if Emmitt were still playing today, he's my man. I wouldn't care if he had a white beard and ran the 40 in ten minutes, he's still my guy. One day maybe Zeke will sneak into my heart like that, but it won't be until he is a couple more years in this league and playing Emmitt level football. Until then, Zeke and I are sorta on shaky ground, even though I find myself thoroughly enjoying his style of play, his heart and everything else about him.

But don't you diss my Emmitt, or I'll take you into an alleyway and show you where all the bad bars are.

 

[LatinMind]

Tony never had a run game to help him until 2014...

Murray never bailed out Tony Romo. Was it 3 games Murray lost a fumble in the first quarter that got returned for a TD in the first six weeks of the season - or whatever it was. No, Romo wasn't always great, but his highs were much higher than Dak's have been.

which is why i used the numbers from 2014 which was his best yr of his career. And as a rookie Dak is right on par with him. Was it Murray who saved the season early with how many games of 100yrds to start? I dont know why people like you continue to try and make this into the Dallas Romos. Dallas is 12-2 and bout to wrap up HFA. Its a team game and this is a better team than 2014. The main reason i let go of thoughts of Romo is because he hasnt been on the field for basically 2 yrs. This team moved on with a Rookie who has surpassed what anybody thought he would do. Be thankful you have a team thats very good.

 

[Future]

which is why i used the numbers from 2014 which was his best yr of his career. And as a rookie Dak is right on par with him. Was it Murray who saved the season early with how many games of 100yrds to start? I dont know why people like you continue to try and make this into the Dallas Romos. Dallas is 12-2 and bout to wrap up HFA. Its a team game and this is a better team than 2014. The main reason i let go of thoughts of Romo is because he hasnt been on the field for basically 2 yrs. This team moved on with a Rookie who has surpassed what anybody thought he would do. Be thankful you have a team thats very good.

I didn't say we should play Romo and have not once said we should bench Dak.

I just think it's shortsighted to not even consider what Tony could bring to this offense that Dak doesn't. The fact that this is a better team in 2014 - both the run game and the defense - is exactly why we should be wondering what Tony could do.

 

[SultanOfSix]

Clearly Dak is a winning QB, and now a pro-bowl caliber QB, and maybe most importantly a conservative QB much like Brady and not a gunslinger like Romo. As I never liked Romo's style of play, I can't be an objective analyst in these arguments.

Romo has really never been a gunslinger. I don't even know what that really means since all I can think of when the term is used is Brett Favre. He sometimes holds the ball too long and tries to make plays whenever they aren't there, and takes some chances like all QBs do, but he doesn't just throw it as carelessly as Brett Favre often did. This is just another myth propagated by the stupid media.

 

[links18]

You guys act like Dak hasn't attempted a single deep ball.

God-almighty you're just too much.

What does Dak have to do with the 49ers?

 

[Clarkson]

Romo has really never been a gunslinger. I don't even know what that really means since all I can think of when the term is used is Brett Favre. He sometimes holds the ball too long and tries to make plays whenever they aren't there, and takes some chances like all QBs do, but he doesn't just throw it as carelessly as Brett Favre often did. This is just another myth propagated by the stupid media.

I've never viewed Tony as a "gunslinger." For the most part, the only reason he would make throws that were too risky was because he basically had to to win games.

 

[Clarkson]

I didn't say we should play Romo and have not once said we should bench Dak.

I just think it's shortsighted to not even consider what Tony could bring to this offense that Dak doesn't. The fact that this is a better team in 2014 - both the run game and the defense - is exactly why we should be wondering what Tony could do.

I wish there was some parallel universe where we could see how good and healthy Tony is and what he could do with this team. I am ridiculously curious. There's basically no way to find out how much better or worse we would've been. And if we don't make the Super Bowl, it will kill me to not know if Tony would've led us there. I can't imagine actually being part of the organization.

 

[sean10mm]

Romo has really never been a gunslinger. I don't even know what that really means since all I can think of when the term is used is Brett Favre. He sometimes holds the ball too long and tries to make plays whenever they aren't there, and takes some chances like all QBs do, but he doesn't just throw it as carelessly as Brett Favre often did. This is just another myth propagated by the stupid media.

Romo absolutely was a gunslinger in 2006-2007. He had a lot of crazy scrambles, a lot of big boom-or-bust throws and a Favre-esque interception rate.

By 2009 that part of his career was over though.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

What does Dak have to do with the 49ers?

SMH

 

[SultanOfSix]

Romo absolutely was a gunslinger in 2006-2007. He had a lot of crazy scrambles, a lot of big boom-or-bust throws and a Favre-esque interception rate.

By 2009 that part of his career was over though.

Romo has never thrown 20 interceptions or over in a season in his career. The most he's thrown is 19, the same as Aikman threw his rookie year.

Brett Favre has done it six times.

 

[LatinMind]

I didn't say we should play Romo and have not once said we should bench Dak.

I just think it's shortsighted to not even consider what Tony could bring to this offense that Dak doesn't. The fact that this is a better team in 2014 - both the run game and the defense - is exactly why we should be wondering what Tony could do.

What makes you think Romo can still play at that level? And thats the thing with this whole Romo situation. They dont have to force it to find out. Because they have their new franchise QB. Its not short sighted, its called reality. When you have a player who hasnt been on the field for basically 2 yrs you cant expect the team to wait and all of the sudden abandon the guy who has lead the way to 12wins. For yrs all people complained about was this team needs to think bout the guy who will replace Romo because he's a;ways hurt. Hes not going to play much longer. Go figure they find the guy and now people dont want to get past Romo.

This team is in good hands and they will only get better. And why wonder what Tony can do when Dak is doing it now?

 

[thechosen1n2]

This is 100% true. Dak's biggest strength is his outstanding decision making and intelligence. Avoiding big mistakes is critical in the NFL. A lot of quarterbacks never learn that lesson. Great to see a rookie who understands the best way to win games. Parcells would love Dak.

Correction. Parcells does love Dak. Before the draft he pointed to Dak and said Dak met all the criteria that you should look for in drafting a QB.

 

[Plankton]

I don't get why this is still a discussion when the actual air yards/attempt (not just yards per) have been posted and Dak is in the top 5 in the league?

Because, truthfully, air yards per attempt is a manufactured and worthless statistic.

If a receiver runs a wrong route, and the QB overthrows it by 20 yards, what's the calculation for air yards on the attempt? And, is it legit? If the QB reads the receiver incorrectly, and airmails the throw, what's the air yards? And, is that legit?

If a QB throws the ball away to avoid a rush, what's the average air yards for that attempt?

Yards per attempt are quantifiable. The other isn't.

 

[kramskoi]

Romo has really never been a gunslinger. I don't even know what that really means since all I can think of when the term is used is Brett Favre. He sometimes holds the ball too long and tries to make plays whenever they aren't there, and takes some chances like all QBs do, but he doesn't just throw it as carelessly as Brett Favre often did. This is just another myth propagated by the stupid media.

Favre first 8 seasons with the Packers...139 ints...Cutler eight seasons with Chicago...134 ints...Romo eight seasons with Dallas...103 ints. The former two QBs are certifiable gunslingers. Favre, in particular only had one season (in a 20 year career) where he threw for 10 ints or less...and that year saw him a Vikings uniform (2009). Romo had four such seasons (of eight) where he started 13 games or more.

 

[erod]

Sturm did reference air yards as well. Being 5th in the league in air yards per attempt establishes pretty definitively that you're not dink and dunk.

In any event, there are logical errors in your criticism of YPA as a measurement of a QB's tendency to throw downfield vs. underneath. It's true that YPA is a poor measurement of that, but it's clearly not for the reasons you suggest. In particular:



Your conclusion is precipitous. A QB could generate that stat line throwing nothing but one-yard quick outs on every play (the balance of his YPA would be YAC). That's the very definition of dink and dunk. Which should tell you that the right way to zero in on whether a QB is dink and dunk is by separating out YAC and looking only at air yards per attempt.

There's no reason to hate statistics so long as you're looking at the right ones.

Dak doesn't go downfield much at all. Do you even watch the games?

 

[sean10mm]

Because, truthfully, air yards per attempt is a manufactured and worthless statistic.

If a receiver runs a wrong route, and the QB overthrows it by 20 yards, what's the calculation for air yards on the attempt? And, is it legit?

If a QB throws the ball away to avoid a rush, what's the average air yards for that attempt?

Yards per attempt are quantifiable. The other isn't.

Sure it is, you are just ignorant of the actual definition of the stat. That's your problem, though. The concept is actually really simple and clearly defined for anyone who can bother to look it up.

What is Air Yards?
The total distance that a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. Air yards can be calculated by taking total passing yards and subtracting Yards After the Catch (YAC).

https://www.sportingcharts.com/dictionary/nfl/air-yards.aspx

In all the hypothetical examples you made up, the air yards would be ZERO.