The Case Against Extending Elliott

[Blackrain]

In case you haven’t heard Linehan is gone and the Cowboys hired a new Offensive Coordinator. Give him a chance before you spew this nonsense.

No nonsense about it Moore is not a proven commodity yet so after viewing the WR by committee debacle of last year Im not confident we can just dispense with a top 3 RB and have a group talented enough to carry the load with our current coaching staff . We added one very talented WR and fixed the problem .

Moore was still on the staff and the problem was not going away . He could not catch the balls that were going through lesser talented guys hands than Coopers and being INTd

Im all about giving him a chance but till he proves himself Im not confident . I believe if Zeke is in shape and all in commitment wise with the improvements on the Oline we will be able to run the ball effectively, like we did before no matter who the OC is We imposed our will and had a talented enough RB to do so when everyone knew we were running the ball .

3 guys with marginal talent could require a level of coaching at the OC spot that we don't know if we have yet .

So before you accuse someone of spewing nonsense think it through a little

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Wow, that is a terrible plot. It comes from: https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

The big problem with it is survivorship bias. The age 27 data includes all RBs who had 75+ carries at age 27...but it doesn't include the RBs who played from ages 21-26 but were out of the league by age 27. So anyone who declined earlier or faster is excluded. And the problem only gets worse as the ages increase: there are fewer and fewer guys who are actually still in the league. What that means is the actual average decline is much more precipitous than shown here. Other, better-constructed studies show that RBs on average peak at age 25 and decline after that, and (again, on average) drop off precipitously after age 28. (See for instance https://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/des.htm).

That is fair. Good argument. Still he is only 24 and through age 28 he should play at a high level. Even a 5 year deal is not a bad gig considering the unguaranteed contracts of the NFL.

 

[HungryLion]

I'm fine with giving him a 4 or even 5 year extension. RB peak at 27 typically and he is 24. His age 28 and even 29 years are still going to be similar to what we see now.

As the chart clearly shows the next 3 years should see him improve, 29 is similar to age 23, and the cliff is after 30. His best years are likely to be the next three. Cutting/trading him now is plain ignorant.

I’ve never see. This chart before. Thanks for
Posting it. I agree. The time to extend Zeke is now. He has 4-5 years of high end production left before the bottom falls out. By the time he is done producing. The contract is done or you’re at a point where you can cut him with little cap ramifications.

 

[CouchCoach]

I can tell you after one Miracle on the Brazos in 50+ years and then when Briles restored Belief on the Brazos we’d of sold our souls and the neighbors girls for a Nat’l Championship. One Ring would have been worth another 50 years of mostly dormant football.

The problem with not selling out for the Ring is you really never know if treading along will bring it or not. But if you’ve ever followed a Dormant team it’s a completely different mindset and attitude than following a championship history team.

We have 5 Rings in our pocket. Our plate is pretty full. 25 years hasn't scraped it out that much . We really don’t know what we’d feel if we were Brown or Lion fans. Well, I think I know cause I’ve been following Baylor as long as I have the Cowboys.

Try being a Razorback. They showed the odds for teams to win the SEC this year and went to 12 and they didn't show up.

We all knew bolting the SWC for the SEC would bring some recruiting changes but no one saw this coming, they're a disaster and really do not show any signs of improving anytime soon. They hired a coach with a losing record with the spin "yeah, but they would have been worse without him". What kind of sales job is that? That's like us selling ourselves on Garrett and Prescott, we could be worse.

 

[Blackrain]

Ya know, I get that pet cat thing, I used to have my untouchables as well but I've spent a lot of time watching how that guy in NE does things and it all begins with one principle, no one isn't expendable. That includes the QB and if Kraft hadn't interceded and got Brady to go along with that contract, he would be playing somewhere else.

He doesn't get himself into situations where a player can hold him up and take him out of his formula because he doesn't get too dependent on one player. Flowers was right there with Lawrence except he actually showed up in crunch time and Belichick didn't blink, didn't even tag him and try to work something out. Just wished him well and will probably see him again after this contract like he did Jamie Collins.

There is this imaginary point where a good player crosses it and begins to hurt his team because he's taking too much of the cap. Example, Lawrence. If he's only as good as he was, he's a liability. He must step up and be, by far, the best player on that defense and he wasn't last season. He wasn't the best and he wasn't consistent, he's yet to show he's a crunch time asset. However, he's pulling 11% of this year's cap. But that's not really what he's doing.

Considering that the team isn't going to commit anymore than 45% of the total cap to the D side, and with the triplets pending they won't come close to that if they sign them they could take close to 35% of the total cap...just the 3 of them. So, let's assume 45% to the D side, Lawrence is taking 22% of that, 1 player accounting for almost a quarter of the available money with a CB and LB in the wings waiting for their payday. Don't know if you've seen the chart but 4 of that starting back 7 is up next year and 2 of the front 4. Half the defense is up and 22% going to one player already.

I am pretty sure Belichick would have loved to have kept Flowers. He played for my Hogs and stayed his senior season to help his HC out, he's as good a team guy as you'd ever want and a good player but Belichick knew he couldn't pull the trigger on that and stay true to his formula. That's why he's the best of this era, he has a formula and that takes priority over any player because it benefits all of his players.

Do you think Belichick would even be considering an extension for Elliott, even if he is the best RB in the league?

Great post coach and all true problem is Belichick is a great coach that can coach up lesser talent and put them in positions to help him . We need an over abundance of talent to overcome our coaching . Fortunately Garrett is pretty good at acquiring that talent to save himself we just have to find a way to pay for it all LOL

 

[CouchCoach]

Great post coach and all true problem is Belichick is a great coach that can coach up lesser talent and put them in positions to help him . We need an over abundance of talent to overcome our coaching . Fortunately Garrett is pretty good at acquiring that talent to save himself we just have to find a way to pay for it all LOL

That's the honest truth, Blackie, and I don't know if that's going to change anytime soon even with a coaching change.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

AGE OF RBS DO NOT MATTER IN TERMS OF FALLING OFF THE PROVERBIAL CLIFF. IT'S COMES DOWN TO TOUCHES

 

[HungryLion]

Wow, that is a terrible plot. It comes from: https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

The big problem with it is survivorship bias. The age 27 data includes all RBs who had 75+ carries at age 27...but it doesn't include the RBs who played from ages 21-26 but were out of the league by age 27. So anyone who declined earlier or faster is excluded. And the problem only gets worse as the ages increase: there are fewer and fewer guys who are actually still in the league. What that means is the actual average decline is much more precipitous than shown here. Other, better-constructed studies show that RBs on average peak at age 25 and decline after that, and (again, on average) drop off precipitously after age 28. (See for instance https://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/des.htm).

You have to ask the question, is Zeke an elite level
Talent?

If you look at a lot of the High end running backs in recent history, they are still performing at a high level when they are 27/28. Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Matt forte, lesean McCoy, frank gore, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, etc.

Anytime you sign a player to a new contract, you are making a projection on how you think they will do over the life of that contract.

All that being said, given Zeke’s overall talent level, his pedigree, and his production up to this point in his career, it’s not unreasonable to project that Zeke will remain highly productive until 27/28 like other elite running backs in the NFL have.

Of course there’s risk involved. There is with every single long term contract for every player though.

 

[Diehardblues]

Try being a Razorback. They showed the odds for teams to win the SEC this year and went to 12 and they didn't show up.

We all knew bolting the SWC for the SEC would bring some recruiting changes but no one saw this coming, they're a disaster and really do not show any signs of improving anytime soon. They hired a coach with a losing record with the spin "yeah, but they would have been worse without him". What kind of sales job is that? That's like us selling ourselves on Garrett and Prescott, we could be worse.

I hear ya .

Horrible move by Ark except financially. Surely you’d much rather be a bigger fish in a smaller pond? But at least you have that 1 Ring. We miss the Hogs.

 

[Blackrain]

That's the honest truth, Blackie, and I don't know if that's going to change anytime soon even with a coaching change.

There is just such a small window while these guys are on there rookie contracts . Other than he needs his comfort and Credit I cant understand why Jerry dosent shoot the works on Coaching . There is no cap and it makes the most of what you have available talent wise for the longest foreseeable time.

I threw my hands up after the Eagles won the SB if that didn't shock him into the reality of the value in coaching I figured nothing would and we would just have to be satisfied with a playoff birth once in a while .

 

[Diehardblues]

You have to ask the question, is Zeke an elite level
Talent?

If you look at a lot of the High end running backs in recent history, they are still performing at a high level when they are 27/28. Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Matt forte, lesean McCoy, frank gore, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, etc.

Anytime you sign a player to a new contract, you are making a projection on how you think they will do over the life of that contract.

All that being said, given Zeke’s overall talent level, his pedigree, and his production up to this point in his career, it’s not unreasonable to project that Zeke will remain highly productive until 27/28 like other elite running backs in the NFL have.

Of course there’s risk involved. There is with every single long term contract for every player though.

This has been a fun 24 hrs but as the dust begins to settle in this marvelous scandalously rumor the more I think Big Daddy will find a way to convince Zeke he’s going to be taken care of in a way only Jerry can do because he realizes their offense and Prescott is built and dependent on #21.

But paying him wasn’t in the plans this season . There in lies the conundrum.

I’ve been thinking Elliott’s probably been thinking we might not be planning on extending him next year . After all there has been a vibe since his suspension in 2017 that with his off field history he’s a risk to bust the bank with. We’ve all discussed as has the media. And he knows Dak and Cooper are fixing to get paid and he could be the odd man out.

Honestly , I think it’s brilliant strategy on his part despite how painful this is for the Cowboys. He’s basically placing this season in jeopardy if he sits out. Cheapskate Son is probably willing to trade him or let him walk and suffer the consequences but Big Daddy will have to take brunt of it publicly not to mention the grief he could take with criticism of Dak if he struggles without Elliott. It’s the risk of the offense collapsing again that haunts Big Daddy.

 

[HungryLion]

This has been a fun 24 hrs but as the dust begins to settle in this marvelous scandalously rumor the more I think Big Daddy will find a way to convince Zeke he’s going to be taken care of in a way only Jerry can do because he realizes their offense and Prescott is built and dependent on #21.

But paying him wasn’t in the plans this season . There in lies the conundrum.

I’ve been thinking Elliott’s probably been thinking we might not be planning on extending him next year . After all there has been a vibe since his suspension in 2017 that with his off field history he’s a risk to bust the bank with. We’ve all discussed as has the media. And he knows Dak and Cooper are fixing to get paid and he could be the odd man out.

Honestly , I think it’s brilliant strategy on his part despite how painful this is for the Cowboys. He’s basically placing this season in jeopardy if he sits out. Cheapskate Son is probably willing to trade him or let him walk and suffer the consequences but Big Daddy will have to take brunt of it publicly not to mention the grief he could take with criticism of Dak if he struggles without Elliott. It’s the risk of the offense collapsing again that haunts Big Daddy.

I’m ok with extending Zeke next off season. Simply for the fact that any contract he signs will probably be structured to where he could be cut after 4 years anyway. Making his contract escapable by the time he declines.

The one thing I don’t want the team to do, is wait until after zeke’s 5th year option or even worse, franchise him once and then extend him when he is like 26 years old. That would be a mistake.

I also don’t see Zeke being willing to play on his 5th year option Or a franchise tag anyway.

As much as fans talk about “use the franchise tag, run him into the ground, etc”. They don’t think agents know what teams are trying to do? Look at Gordon in San Diego now holding out because him and his agent knows the teams strategy. Running backs know they don’t have long shelf lives.

Zeke would be wise to hold out next off season if he isn’t extended by then and I couldn’t blame him if he does.

 

[shabazz]

How many teams would line up to pay him? This is not just the Cowboys I don't should pay him, no one should. RB's are too plentiful in the draft and they never have to have one in a 2nd contract unless he's affordable.

As long as the Raiders remain in the NFl there’s always a chance

 

[Diehardblues]

I’m ok with extending Zeke next off season. Simply for the fact that any contract he signs will probably be structured to where he could be cut after 4 years anyway. Making his contract escapable by the time he declines.

The one thing I don’t want the team to do, is wait until after zeke’s 5th year option or even worse, franchise him once and then extend him when he is like 26 years old. That would be a mistake.

I also don’t see Zeke being willing to play on his 5th year option Or a franchise tag anyway.

As much as fans talk about “use the franchise tag, run him into the ground, etc”. They don’t think agents know what teams are trying to do? Look at Gordon in San Diego now holding out because him and his agent knows the teams strategy. Running backs know they don’t have long shelf lives.

Zeke would be wise to hold out next off season if he isn’t extended by then and I couldn’t blame him if he does.

I agree but unfortunately for the Cowboys it appears Elliott wants to be paid now.

 

[DuncanIso]

I agree but unfortunately for the Cowboys it appears Elliott wants to be paid now.

This is not surprising.

Zeke is way underpaid. TGurley and LBell are #1 and #2. Zeke is #10.

Soon Zeke will be the #1 paid RB.

Look for a 4 yr 60-70 million deal. 25 million signing bonus. 37 million guaranteed.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Means nothing at all.

So why doesn't one team buy all the good players?

Seems the obvious move since... ThE sAlArY cAp DoEsN't MaTtEr

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You are doing what I call Broaddus-ing.

An continued attempt to prove your draft opinion correct by any means necessary while pretending to actually be analyzing the current situation.

Zeke more than doubled his receptions from 2016. His pass blocking and attention to detail was terrific but it requires studying game footage to see all of those detailed issues.

A look at all NFL teams shows it'a not as trivial as just drafting a "mid-round" RB; otherwise all teams would have really good ones.

I have seen pages and pages of posts about re-signing or not re-signing or trading Zeke but barely any of them address who would replace him.

Zeke finished 24th in yards per route run. He was essentially a dump off option. High volume. Low efficiency.

Also my draft opinion was that Zeke was a great player who because of his position shouldn't be drafted where he was taken.

As it turns out Zeke is just a really good player who has benefited from good health, high volume and elite run blocking.

What analysis am I only pretending to do?

Oh and in regards to replacing Zeke almost any rb we view highly in the mid rounds would do. It's amazing people can look at the success Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden had in our offense and worry about finding running production. It's amazing people who follow the NFL closely worry about finding rushing production and focus on the rb.

Find me a GM who goes into the draft with rb as his biggest need I'll show you a pretty happy GM.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You sure you are watching the same team?

Zeke wasn't that good last year?!? he had 2001 scrimmage yards. His best year yet.

He's on pace to break all of Emmitt's records.

SHOW ME THE MONEY JERRY 8)

Volume vs efficiency.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Same QB when we ranked 5th and 7th in the red zone in 2016 and 2017.

Would love to see the numbers vs league average. Specifically opportunities.

 

[TwoDeep3]

So why doesn't one team buy all the good players?

Seems the obvious move since... ThE sAlArY cAp DoEsN't MaTtEr

It doesn't take all the good players. They are not on the market at the same time. The draft frowns on one team drafting all the first round players.

I find the fact the Eagles essentially put together a team and spent a great deal of money doing it, and are still fielding a team that is competitive. They sort of did buy that Superbowl in a way.

It seems to me that wringing hands over the salary cap, as fans like yourself do so often is pointless. Jerry did the stupid stuff ten years ago and it didn't work. He has cooled his jets and been a little more pragmatic about the cap and the results are the same.

So evidently in the real world, teams massage the cap and make it work.

I guess in Madden it doesn't work that way.