Allow me please to more brazenly advocate tonight than ever before... Guyton may be the long-term answer, yet not be the short-term answer at LT.
Some already knew this stuff. I confess I did not. See below.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-buyer-beware-2024-nfl-draft-prospects
Offensive line grading is one of the most stable and predictable data points for future NFL success, and Guyton doesn't check all of the boxes.
His grading profile from 2022 to 2023 is remarkably consistent, albeit at the low end of the spectrum. His 66.2 overall grade in 2022 is almost identical to his 66.3 grade in 2023. His pass-blocking grade was 72.9 in both years, which is respectable but not a great mark. His run blocking is the biggest concern, as he graded out at 62.1 in 2022 and 60.5 in 2023.
On inside-zone runs, Guyton earned a 58.1 grade, with a greater than 2-to-1 negative-to-positive-grade ratio. On all other runs, he recorded a near 1-to-1 ratio. With inside zone being the most prevalent run scheme in the NFL, teams will need to be mindful when considering the big man from Oklahoma.
https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2024/05/10/cowboys-tyler-guyton-biggest-challenge/
Guyton specifically struggled with inside-zone runs at Oklahoma. The same inside-zone Brian Schottenheimer is famous for running as an offensive coordinator. Guyton’s negative grades on inside-zone runs beat out his positive grades more than 2-to-1.
A blown assignment on a running play may not sound like a significant event given total number of players involved in blocking for a running play, but the numbers tell a different tale: On a running play with zero negatively graded blocks, running plays historically have a 60.2% success rate. On plays with one or more negative graded blocks that success rate drops to 25.7%. Understandably the EPA follows suit, dropping from +0.27 to -0.27.
It shows one bad block can make all the difference in the running game and both phases of the game should be seen as single point failure areas for offensive linemen and not just pass-protection.
For Guyton, it’s not about the pancake blocks or the highlight-reel peaks in performance, it’s about cutting out the blown assignments and lowlight-reel valleys in performance.
If we get to Oxnard, and that appears to be the prevailing conclusion, of course, we have some alternatives in-house... the leading one likely being that you move Tyler to LT, and TJ to LG.
Me, I'd rather just take the proposition of Guyton starting off the table, given that almost no one believes he's going to be a capable left tackle for Dak and for the running game in week one. It's too important a position, in my opinion, to pencil him in there, and make it his job to lose.
Rather, I'm a proponent for going out of house for an cagey old veteran LT whose price on the open market probably is significantly slashed as a consequence that 2 of the last 3 seasons have been lost seasons for him healthwise... but supposedly, he is already deemed healthy for 2024, and conceivably, he could be attracted to a reunion with his old head coach. Sign 32 yr old
David Bakhtiari to be the #1 for 2024, unless/until the kid just overwhelms and makes it irrational to keep him as the swing tackle... or unless/until injury forces Guyton into the line-up.
