CFZ The clear recipe to make a conference championship game without an elite QB

[JBS]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

We’ve had elite run games and elite defenses at different times. And we still haven’t gotten there

 

[Yobwocs]

Burrow isn't elite. His defense forced 7 INTs in the last 3 games of the Super Bowl run and he came up with RUNNER UP.

when your defense plays that well, you gotta WIN the Super Bowl. Runner up is not good enough. Since then he's been about in the regular pack of QBs.

 

[Rockport]

We’ve had elite run games and elite defenses at different times. And we still haven’t gotten there

When did they have an “elite defense”?

 

[Yobwocs]

When did they have an “elite defense”?

I'll have what he's having

 

[Bobhaze]

You’re ok with moving on from Dak and Cee Dee? Two of the best players in the league? Only here do you see statements like this.

No not exactly. You didn’t read it right. I was just responding to something another member said about getting Jerry and Dak to step aside. Would I be willing to see Jerry leave if it meant Dak too? Yes in a heartbeat.

This is the exact quote I was somewhat sarcastically responding to from CowboyoWales: “So the fact Dak failed to play 'to the best of his ability' in 3 of 4 play-off games means Jerry just can't build that team around a QB that needs a FULL supporting act.....get rid of Jerry AND Dak.”

There was nothing said about Cedee. You can quote me all day. Just get it right. And you’re always welcome to disagree. Nothing personal from my end.

 

[Rockport]

No not exactly. You didn’t read it right. I was just responding to something another member said about getting Jerry and Dak to step aside. Would I be willing to see Jerry leave if it meant Dak too? Yes in a heartbeat.

This is the exact quote I was somewhat sarcastically responding to from CowboyoWales: “So the fact Dak failed to play 'to the best of his ability' in 3 of 4 play-off games means Jerry just can't build that team around a QB that needs a FULL supporting act.....get rid of Jerry AND Dak.”

There was nothing said about Cedee. You can quote me all day. Just get it right. And you’re always welcome to disagree. Nothing personal from my end.

Here’s your quote where you said it. I don’t just make stuff up like many here do.

Post #76

“I’m ok with moving on from Dak and Cedee if that’s the assessment. Just make a freakin decision!”

 

[Bobhaze]

Here’s your quote where you said it. I don’t just make stuff up like many here do.

Post #76

“I’m ok with moving on from Dak and Cedee if that’s the assessment. Just make a freakin decision!”

Ok…That was a completely different quote than the one I thought you first mentioned. My mistake. The one you’re now quoting is where I was responding to a different poster. Again, you apparently misunderstood that context. The context of that was for the FO to “Make a decision” on Lamb and Dak. If the FO doesn’t think those two are worth the money the market says they are worth, move on. If they don’t think those guys are worth it, they should move on.

Man Rock, for someone who disagrees with almost every thread, every post, every syllable I write here, I gotta say I’m amazed at the apparent obsession with my posts. I think this was just a misunderstanding of which quote you were referring to of mine, lol. That was my mistake.

 

[nalam]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Who will make Jerry n Stephen understand, by paying Dak eliteQB money, you dont have an elite QB lead team,you need to have top ru ning game and top 10 run D.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

Non-elite QBs to make at least a conference championship game in last decade:

• Brock Purdy SF -2022 and 2023 made NFC Championship game and also a SB. Each time with a top 10 running game and top 10 defense.
• Jared Goff Det - made 2023 nfc championship game with 6th ranked running game.
• Jalen Hurts PHi- in 2022 made it to SB with a top 5 running game and top ten defense.
• Jimmy Garropolo SF- In 2019 and 2021 led the niners to a SB and an NFC championship game with a top 5 running game and defense.
• Matt Stafford Rams - 2021 SB champs had the 9th best defense. Not a great running game but their D was big when it had to be.
• Ryan Tannehill- Titans 2019- had 3rd ranked running game.
• Nick Foles Phi- 2017- won SB with 3rd ranked running game and 4th ranked defense.
• Matt Ryan Atl 2016- made SB with a 5th ranked rushing game.

Again…Dak (or any other decent, non-elite QB) needs to be supported by a good running game and/or defense. It’s the only way.

The problem with this logic is that it lumps Dak in with guys like Purdy, Hurts, Goff, etc.

Whether those guys are elite or not, what they DID do is ball out in the playoffs. They gave their team a chance to win.

Dak does the opposite: throws early picks, and removes any chance his team has to win. Having Mahomes is great, but even if you just have a solid, smart, professional performance at QB, your team can win. But if your QB goes out there like a deer in headlights, and helps the other team jump out to a quick 3 score lead because he's handing out INTs like Halloween candy, you stand no chance.

Being "very good" in Sept and Oct is meaningless, if you're downright pathetic in January, which Dak always is.

 

[Rockport]

Ok…That was a completely different quote than the one I thought you first mentioned. My mistake. The one you’re now quoting is where I was responding to a different poster. Again, you apparently misunderstood that context. The context of that was for the FO to “Make a decision” on Lamb and Dak. If the FO doesn’t think those two are worth the money the market says they are worth, move on. If they don’t think those guys are worth it, they should move on.

Man Rock, for someone who disagrees with almost every thread, every post, every syllable I write here, I gotta say I’m amazed at the apparent obsession with my posts. I think this was just a misunderstanding of which quote you were referring to of mine, lol. That was my mistake.

You wrote it so what am I supposed to believe? I mean your quote was rather specific saying you’re ok with moving on from Dak and Cee Dee if that’s their assessment. And I’m not obsessed with your posts. You write like everything you say is fact when it’s just your opinion. I know you’re a mod and all, but that doesn’t mean you’re always right. One thing you’re wrong about is blaming all the issues on 1 player instead of the whole team Including the coaching staff. You’ll say you don’t, but you do like half this board does. You’re always preaching everyone has an opionion. Well, do as you preach and don’t blame me for questioning such a ridiculous statement. You’re acting a little Deion Sanders here.

 

[HungryLion]

Hard to have a supporting cast, when your top 3 guys want to eat half the pie....

Not much Pie left for the other guys ...

And no , passing the buck to future years is not the answer .

That is analogous to making the minimum payment on your credit card . Eventually your going to get burnt , Bad ~!

Thanks Stephen. This is why the FO needs to be good at their jobs.

 

[Bobhaze]

You wrote it so what am I supposed to believe? I mean your quote was rather specific saying you’re ok with moving on from Dak and Cee Dee if that’s their assessment. And I’m not obsessed with your posts. You write like everything you say is fact when it’s just your opinion. I know you’re a mod and all, but that doesn’t mean you’re always right. One thing you’re wrong about is blaming all the issues on 1 player instead of the whole team Including the coaching staff. You’ll say you don’t, but you do like half this board does. You’re always preaching everyone has an opionion. Well, do as you preach and don’t blame me for questioning such a ridiculous statement. You’re acting a little Deion Sanders here.

Context, Context, Context. The defintion of context according to Webster’s: the parts of a discussion that surround a word or passage that can throw light on its meaning.

In other words, you have to understand more than the literal words.

 

[Bobhaze]

You wrote it so what am I supposed to believe? I mean your quote was rather specific saying you’re ok with moving on from Dak and Cee Dee if that’s their assessment. And I’m not obsessed with your posts. You write like everything you say is fact when it’s just your opinion. I know you’re a mod and all, but that doesn’t mean you’re always right. One thing you’re wrong about is blaming all the issues on 1 player instead of the whole team Including the coaching staff. You’ll say you don’t, but you do like half this board does. You’re always preaching everyone has an opionion. Well, do as you preach and don’t blame me for questioning such a ridiculous statement. You’re acting a little Deion Sanders here.

Rock…taking what you are literally telling me…no, not everything I say on here is fact. Most of what I say on here is opinion. If you can’t tell the difference, I can’t help you. I’m not going to argue with you anymore. If you don’t like what I’m posting that’s fine.

This is bordering on trolling. I get it that you disagree with me. Fine. Im done arguing with you about what you tell me I intended to say. Done.

 

[Rockport]

Context, Context, Context. The defintion of context according to Webster’s: the parts of a discussion that surround a word or passage that can throw light on its meaning.

In other words, you have to understand more than the literal words.

Well, yeah I believe you when you said “If they want to get rid of Dak and Cee Dee, so be it”.

 

[Eddie]

Non-elite QBs to make at least a conference championship game in last decade:

• Brock Purdy SF -2022 and 2023 made NFC Championship game and also a SB. Each time with a top 10 running game and top 10 defense.
• Jared Goff Det - made 2023 nfc championship game with 6th ranked running game.
• Jalen Hurts PHi- in 2022 made it to SB with a top 5 running game and top ten defense.
• Jimmy Garropolo SF- In 2019 and 2021 led the niners to a SB and an NFC championship game with a top 5 running game and defense.
• Matt Stafford Rams - 2021 SB champs had the 9th best defense. Not a great running game but their D was big when it had to be.
• Ryan Tannehill- Titans 2019- had 3rd ranked running game.
• Nick Foles Phi- 2017- won SB with 3rd ranked running game and 4th ranked defense.
• Matt Ryan Atl 2016- made SB with a 5th ranked rushing game.

Again…Dak (or any other decent, non-elite QB) needs to be supported by a good running game and/or defense. It’s the only way.

That also means there's no reason to pay Dak the $70 mil a year that he wants.

 

[Chasing6]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Now what is the clear recipe for getting an elite QB???

An elite QB is someone who has been on a team with a top 10 defense and a top 10 running game and won 1 or more SB's.

If you don't win SB's you can't be considered an elite QB by definition. However, you can be considered an elite player in any other position without winning a SB.

See how that works.

Stop looking for an Elite QB. Build a complimentary football team and your good QB will become elite.

 

[eromeopolk]

You kinda skipped over taking Irvin and Aikman. Didn't fit your Narrative.
But it happened. And that was 3 SBs in 4 years. And shoulda been 4/4.

That team was an offensive heavy team. Again, not fitting your Narrative.
The Pro Bowls. The All Pros. The HOFs. Offense.

Jimmy Johnson did not draft Michael Irvin that was Tex, Gil, and Tom. In fact Jimmy Johnson almost traded Irvin to the Raiders in 1989. Jimmy was a defensive guy like Tom so they only draft offense in the first round when necessary. Aikman actually was a Tex, Gil, and Tom's pick as the scouting had been done and they had dinner together with Tom Landry going to the Cotton Bowl practices. He was going to be a Cowboy without Jimmy or Jerry. Jimmy played with the Aikman pick until he went to Troy's Pro Day. Gil Brandt told him he would be out of his mind to do anything with the number one overall pick but draft Troy Aikman. That is why Gil, Ackles, Wooten, and Jimmy ran the 1989 draft.

Jerry and Jimmy only had 2 months to prepare. No way they could trash all the work Gil, Ackles, Wooten and the scouts did for the 1989 draft. Jerry played with the pick to the media based on Jimmy doing subterfuge with the pick after the Pro Day telling Jerry Tony Mandrich is all world.

My narrative is sound as the first pick in Dallas Cowboys History and the last No.1 overall pick in Dallas Cowboys history. Different players, same position.

 

[eromeopolk]

Yeah this high flying passing offense doen't work in the cold or against physical teams

We play the NFC EAST. Cold weather physically built teams.

 

[birdwells1]

We play the NFC EAST. Cold weather physically built teams.

Depends on when you play the East and if they’re good. The last few years it didn’t matter where we played Washington or New York because the weren’t good. If you play someone on the road in bad weather in the playoffs then that team is going to be good

 

[Cowboys5217]

Burrow isn't elite. His defense forced 7 INTs in the last 3 games of the Super Bowl run and he came up with RUNNER UP.

when your defense plays that well, you gotta WIN the Super Bowl. Runner up is not good enough. Since then he's been about in the regular pack of QBs.

He's accomplished more than Dak in a shorter amount of time. Make all the excuses you want.