CFZ The clear recipe to make a conference championship game without an elite QB

[CowboyoWales]

I would support that.

Yep that, or Dak gives a career ending contract. If Dak gives such a contract we're in the Eagles/Hurts scenario (in 2028/29), a couple of years of CAP relief with a 'planned' CAP Hell, to reset.
Will Jerry care in 4/5 years, by then we'll have Stephen, who'll last a maximum of 2 years before he realises (with the help of the media), that he's out of his depth.

 

[blueblood70]

I wish Sam Williams hadn’t gone down. Because I think our defense is going to be really good this year. The pass rush is my only concern.

Look as much as Sam Williams ,was one of my pics this offseason that maybe he takes a step becomes Armstrong for us, this might be a blessing in disguise

and I know it don't seem like it but the man was like Randy Gregory he was one of those guys in big moments that's going to get through the dumb thing and because of his passion and his overzealousness creating penalties or jumping offsides and he's young, cant tell me that Lawson's not a better fill in for him as vet, if it wasn't for Sam Williams getting hurt I don't think this defensive line is being rebuilt right now...

I think Mike Zimmer went in and said Hey we're having all these injuries they even brought in Toney and Mohammed and then Toney gets hurt right away.. The rash of injuries have them go out and in my opinion got a better player and don't overlook Gholston I think this year you can say that Lawson's probably going to be a version of Fowler maybe better and then you can put Gholston in as the next Armstrong.

Look as much as I like Sam Williams I think you're putting a little too much stock in what he could have brought this team this year like granny Gregory he couldn't be trusted or relied on I think what they've done since his injury again might be a blessing in disguise.

Lastly I believe Mike zimmer's defense creates pressure they disguise their pressure much better they will be bringing guys from the edge you know like safeties linebackers and corners to get sacks. Also probably a better run stopping team than we were last year more consistency is what I see from Mike zimmer's defense is because they're not feast or famine they're steady all year no matter what team you're facing they're gonna look the same even though the game plan is gonna switch things up.

 

[Ranching]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

All that, or just have Jerry fire himself. Problem solved.

 

[blueblood70]

All that, or just have Jerry fire himself. Problem solved.

That doesn't work either,

I mean he's still the owner his assistant GM in Stephen Jones and will McClay all play a part it's going to all still channel through the same people, right?

I mean the end result probably going to be the same,

and by the way I've watched teams for decades keep changing their GM's head coaches, full turnover of players, some even moved out of state ,changed ownership, and nothing changed.. they're still looking for a quarterback or key players,

they're still trying to find a Super Bowl win or I don't know how long it's been since they had one if they do have one I have not seen any proof that there's a blueprint if you have a regular GM and you fire them on a regular basis somehow it just automatically means Super Bowl wins, or I guess in this case we're talking about a championship game appearance..

We for sure have been snake bitten over the years a player or two or a handful or something always seems to pop up at the worst possible time in the biggest games in the biggest moments and yeah, we fell short.

 

[rambo2]

Dont completely disagree but the Cowboys had Dak, Zeke, Cedee and many other talented players for years on cheap rookie deals (like SF has with Purdy) but they(SF) built great running games and defenses around them before the QB got expensive. Jerry has never learned that lesson.

The 49ers have some issues too. I get the feeling that they might not win the NFC this year. They might come up short.

 

[Diehardblues]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

Probably because our dysfunctional ownership duo Jethro & Son believe they have an Elite QB.

 

[rags747]

It is always the responsibility of the owner, GM and the front office to make the cap work. It is not the players’ responsibility.

The players’ responsibility is to train, prepare and play to the best of their ability. Managing the team’s cap space is not their responsibility.

Very true and both Dak and CeeDee spit the bit, screwed the pooch, behaved like little schoolgirls vs GB last year. Reup them when they prove that they can play big boy football.

 

[Ranching]

That doesn't work either,

I mean he's still the owner his assistant GM in Stephen Jones and will McClay all play a part it's going to all still channel through the same people, right?

I mean the end result probably going to be the same,

and by the way I've watched teams for decades keep changing their GM's head coaches, full turnover of players, some even moved out of state ,changed ownership, and nothing changed.. they're still looking for a quarterback or key players,

they're still trying to find a Super Bowl win or I don't know how long it's been since they had one if they do have one I have not seen any proof that there's a blueprint if you have a regular GM and you fire them on a regular basis somehow it just automatically means Super Bowl wins, or I guess in this case we're talking about a championship game appearance..

We for sure have been snake bitten over the years a player or two or a handful or something always seems to pop up at the worst possible time in the biggest games in the biggest moments and yeah, we fell short.

It was a joke

 

[Bobhaze]

Very true and both Dak and CeeDee spit the bit, screwed the pooch, behaved like little schoolgirls vs GB last year. Reup them when they prove that they can play big boy football.

If after 8 seasons with Dak and 4 with Cedee, if the Cowboys FO doesn’t know by now whether or not these guys have what it takes to “play big boy football”, we have an incompetent FO.

In the NFL, deferring the decision to keep or not keep players is a losing strategy. Be decisive. If you’re not sure they have what it takes after all these years, the decision has already been made.Cut ties. If you think they do have what it takes, sign them. It’s not that complex.

 

[blueblood70]

It was a joke

ohh I know it was I know your sarcasm I'm just adding to it some people need a dose of cold water thrown on their faces because it could be much worse around here...

 

[blueblood70]

If after 8 seasons with Dak and 4 with Cedee, if the Cowboys FO doesn’t know by now whether or not these guys have what it takes to “play big boy football”, we have an incompetent FO.

In the NFL, deferring the decision to keep or not keep players is a losing strategy. Be decisive. If you’re not sure they have what it takes after all these years, the decision has already been made.Cut ties. If you think they do have what it takes, sign them. It’s not that complex.

What do you mean they paid Prescott his big deal gave him everything he ever asked for now we're back at it again this would be his third contract so sometimes this could get stickier and by the way they also offered $1 million per game on a fifth year option to lamb and also offered him 33 million so somehow are we losing sight of the fact that they've made valid offers to these players you're taking the side of the players as usual you don't like the front office but they have done their part in my opinion with these fighters right now the demands are so high this is not an instance where you give players a blank check and they get to decide what's written in the contract or not that is not negotiations that is demands that are so high they can't be met that's on the agent and player now I get it that is why we're negotiating they gotta come to the middle they do know what these players are but they also have to run a business yes football is a business they have to fit a lot of players underneath the salary cap.

How many do you not think that the 49ers don't know Trent brown and Brandon iuke by now but they're going through this struggle I mean sometimes you gotta look at this with a much more open mind because I know you hate the front office you hate Jerry Jones and you think if they left all of a sudden all our problems would just go away because no other team struggle to get the championship games in championships themselves with Super Bowls and Super Bowl wins no other team, no... The Cowboys are the only team in the history of the NFL that have to struggle with players holding out and demanding players demanding high contract to somehow have to take some time to negotiate because they all don't go as easy as I don't know Trayvon diggs why was that a non story I can tell you why because his agent didn't get greedy that player said hey offer me something fair I'll take it top five money is and has always been fair..

But in this case and I don't know Prescott situation because we haven't seen the contract numbers going both ways but lamb he's being greedy $33 million is beyond fair it's above the top five average it would make him the second highest paid player non quarterback in the league and the second highest paid wide receiver in the league get out of 1400 players Oh my God the Jones family disrespected lamb and they don't know how to do business because they just didn't give him everything he wants I mean that's just so disrespectful.. Poor lamb he only was offered $1 million a game to play the sport of football but then when the ownership finally comes to the table says OK we'll give you 33 million they say no and somehow this is all the Jones family again you guys really need to get a life this is a business it will always be a business you have to be able to compromise and come to the middle of the table right now lamb's not doing that in my opinion...

the narrative used to be if you get into top 5 money it would get done quickly, now its make me the highest paid non qb in the league, this throws a wrench in negotiations.

 

[Big D]

We've known since 2016 that our ability to both run and stop the run is the last hurdle needed to be surpassed. Fast forward to now we still haven't adequately addressed those same issues that plague us. Instead we've, (when I say we I mean most fans mediates and talking heads ) been chasing our tails around and circles over the issue of dak being a decent quarterback or not.

Now we're now we're at the end of our quarterback's career. We got super lucky with our last two quarterbacks I don't see it happening again without Jerry taking his hands off the wheel.

 

[rags747]

If after 8 seasons with Dak and 4 with Cedee, if the Cowboys FO doesn’t know by now whether or not these guys have what it takes to “play big boy football”, we have an incompetent FO.

In the NFL, deferring the decision to keep or not keep players is a losing strategy. Be decisive. If you’re not sure they have what it takes after all these years, the decision has already been made.Cut ties. If you think they do have what it takes, sign them. It’s not that complex.

Maybe they do now know and are in no rush to pay them. Both are under contract so not sure what the issue is. The way our two Biggest Star players folded vs GB was total cringe, I’m sure u would agree.

 

[Flamma]

Non-elite QBs to make at least a conference championship game in last decade:

• Brock Purdy SF -2022 and 2023 made NFC Championship game and also a SB. Each time with a top 10 running game and top 10 defense.
• Jared Goff Det - made 2023 nfc championship game with 6th ranked running game.
• Jalen Hurts PHi- in 2022 made it to SB with a top 5 running game and top ten defense.
• Jimmy Garropolo SF- In 2019 and 2021 led the niners to a SB and an NFC championship game with a top 5 running game and defense.
• Matt Stafford Rams - 2021 SB champs had the 9th best defense. Not a great running game but their D was big when it had to be.
• Ryan Tannehill- Titans 2019- had 3rd ranked running game.
• Nick Foles Phi- 2017- won SB with 3rd ranked running game and 4th ranked defense.
• Matt Ryan Atl 2016- made SB with a 5th ranked rushing game.

Again…Dak (or any other decent, non-elite QB) needs to be supported by a good running game and/or defense. It’s the only way.

We could have a good run game. It all depends on the offensive line play. We don't need an elite, or hall of fame running back to have a good run game.

If nothing else, the Cowboys make an effort on the offensive line. They draft well there. But if they're not doing well with the actual RB, or the defensive line in the draft, you have to resort to trades FA. Which they refuse to do. At least not for any high caliber player.

 

[KJJ]

The QB we have may not be “elite” but he’s darn good. The recipe for the Cowboys to reach a conference title game and beyond is to perform in the playoffs like they do in their best games during the regular season. Our best regular season performances aren’t translating to the playoffs. Our offensive and defensive rankings aren’t translating to the playoffs. Our worst regular season performances is what we’re seeing in the playoffs. What we saw against Green Bay in the playoffs is what we saw against Arizona, San Francisco and Buffalo during the regular season. Forget our regular season rankings. Our defense was ranked fifth last season, but looked like a bottom five defense in the playoffs.

We have to be able to run the ball consistently in the playoffs and we have to play great defensively. When we play well as a team, especially on defense our QB plays well. If you put a game entirely on the shoulders of your QB in the playoffs you’re going to lose every time. You don’t see teams winning in the playoffs with their QB having to carry them. This has been a big problem for Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. The Cowboys can’t seem to function as a team in postseason. Everything good we see during the regular season doesn’t show up in the playoffs.

 

[Bobhaze]

Maybe they do now know and are in no rush to pay them. Both are under contract so not sure what the issue is. The way our two Biggest Star players folded vs GB was total cringe, I’m sure u would agree.

I agree with you Rags that those two stars spit the bit vs GB. Where I disagree brother is decisions need to be made. Do you want these guys or not? Yes both are under contract but waiting never saves money.

If you don’t want to pay those guys market value I’m fine with that if you have determined they aren’t worth the cost. I’m ok with moving on from Dak and Cedee if that’s the assessment. Just make a freakin decision!

 

[TwentyOne]

Non-elite QBs to make at least a conference championship game in last decade:

• Brock Purdy SF -2022 and 2023 made NFC Championship game and also a SB. Each time with a top 10 running game and top 10 defense.
• Jared Goff Det - made 2023 nfc championship game with 6th ranked running game.
• Jalen Hurts PHi- in 2022 made it to SB with a top 5 running game and top ten defense.
• Jimmy Garropolo SF- In 2019 and 2021 led the niners to a SB and an NFC championship game with a top 5 running game and defense.
• Matt Stafford Rams - 2021 SB champs had the 9th best defense. Not a great running game but their D was big when it had to be.
• Ryan Tannehill- Titans 2019- had 3rd ranked running game.
• Nick Foles Phi- 2017- won SB with 3rd ranked running game and 4th ranked defense.
• Matt Ryan Atl 2016- made SB with a 5th ranked rushing game.

Again…Dak (or any other decent, non-elite QB) needs to be supported by a good running game and/or defense. It’s the only way.

Dak is not decent.

Thats the problem.

You can support him with whatever you want. He wont be able to defeat better defenses.

 

[ArtClink]

In the last decade of NFL playoff history, it is clear, if your team doesn’t have an elite QB (like Mahomes, Brady, or Burrow) in order to at least make it to a conference championship game, then your team MUST have at least one of these two team strengths:

1. A top ten running game. AND/OR
2. A top ten defense (points per game)

If your team has both a good running game and a good defense you may even win a SB with just a decent QB. I believe Dak Prescott is a very good starting QB but one that is NOT elite. In other words, he needs either a top ten rushing attack or a top ten defense for the Cowboys to have a legit shot at making at least an NFC championship game. Over the last ten NFL seasons this proves out.

Below is the evidence of what I’m talking about. Here are the four conference championship teams the last five seasons, who the starting QBs were, and what kind of running game and defense rankings each team had.

• 2023: NFC TEAMS- SF vs. Det/AFC TEAMS KC vs Balt
  • SF: QB- Brock Purdy(not elite) Running game- 4th, Defense- ranked 4th
  • Det: QB- Jared Goff (not elite) Running game-6th, Defense ranked 25th
  • KC: QB Pat Mahomes (ELITE) Running game-17th, defense 2nd
  • Balt: QB Lamar Jackson (not elite) Running game 1st, defense 1st
• 2022: NFC TEAMs SF vs PHil/ AFC TEAMS KC vs Cincy
  • SF: QB Brock Purdy (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 1st
  • PHI: QB Jalen Hurts (not elite) Running game 4th, defense 7th
  • KC: QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 20th, defense 18th
  • Cin: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 28th, defense 5th
• 2021: NFC TEAMS LARams vs SF/AFC KC vs Cincy
  • Rams QB Matt Stafford (not elite) Running game 27th, defense 9th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (not elite) Running game 7th, defense 5th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 13th, defense 24th
  • Cincy QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 13th
• 2020: NFC TEAMS GB vs TB/AFC TEAMS KC vs BUFF
  • TB QB Tom Brady (ELITE) Running game 25th, defense 7th
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 15th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE) Running game 16th, defense 10th
  • CIN: QB Joe Burrow (ELITE) Running game 24th, defense 21st
• 2019: NFC TEAMS SF vs GB/AFC TEAMS KC vs TENN
  • GB QB Rodgers (ELITE) Running game 15th, defense 12th
  • SF QB Jimmy Garropolo (Not elite) Running game 2nd, defense 7th
  • TENN QB Ryan Tannehill (Not elite) Running game 3rd, defense 11th
  • KC QB Mahomes (ELITE)

So those are the last 5 years of teams who made it to the conference championship game. All teams that did NOT have an elite QB had either a top 10 running game or defense - some both. For the sake of time and space, the same is true for the previous 5 years as well. Like 2017 SB champ Philly who had a 3rd ranked running game and a 4th ranked defense with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles at QB.

With all this clear evidence, why hasn‘t our front office at least worked harder to get us a great running game? We do have some good young OL with great upside. But our backfield? Defense could be possibly top ten potentially.

Bottom Line: Without an elite QB, our best chance to playoff glory is a top ten running game or defense. Without an elite QB, the ONLY way the Cowboys can win big in the playoffs is to have either of those.

What a great analysis.

The Bucs last championship, Id argue Brady was not elite (he is of course elite, but not late in his career).

I stopped trying mk sense of any decision made by the FO.

 

[buybuydandavis]

The first pick in Dallas Cowboys history was not a QB. It was Mr. Cowboy Bob Lilly a DT. Jimmy Johnson drafted the NFL all time Leading rusher, .

You kinda skipped over taking Irvin and Aikman. Didn't fit your Narrative.
But it happened. And that was 3 SBs in 4 years. And shoulda been 4/4.

That team was an offensive heavy team. Again, not fitting your Narrative.
The Pro Bowls. The All Pros. The HOFs. Offense.

 

[Rockport]

I agree with you Rags that those two stars spit the bit vs GB. Where I disagree brother is decisions need to be made. Do you want these guys or not? Yes both are under contract but waiting never saves money.

If you don’t want to pay those guys market value I’m fine with that if you have determined they aren’t worth the cost. I’m ok with moving on from Dak and Cedee if that’s the assessment. Just make a freakin decision!

You’re ok with moving on from Dak and Cee Dee? Two of the best players in the league? Only here do you see statements like this.