The Cowboys' realist path to the Big Dance

[Chasing6]

Think it's a good thing if Herbert is out. Might mean he's out the same timeline CD was out (CD also came back in the game if we remember).... so he'll be back in a month......

Well the Eagles just got lucky if he is out next week.

 

[mldardy]

You guys give up so easily. There are still 5 more games to play and anything can happen.

 

[805BoysInBlue]

Call me crazy but I think Philly loses to either commanders or raiders. They will also lose to the Bills. This division will have Dallas as the NFC East champs

 

[ATXSRT]

I think winning out guarantees us a spot, whether that's the NFCE or a wildcard doesn't matter. Having the tie benefits us as it means we have less losses than other 11 win teams and we get in. Still a lot of season left to play. Injuries and other things still can happen.

 

[805BoysInBlue]

Just read that Dr's are hopeful that Herbert won't miss any time.

 

[RonWashington]

I think winning out guarantees us a spot, whether that's the NFCE or a wildcard doesn't matter. Having the tie almost benefits us as it means we have less losses than other 11 win teams and we get in. Still a lot of season left to play. Injuries and other things still can happen.

It does matter . NFCE gives you a home playoff game

 

[Pentagruel]

In my opinion Philadelphia dropping the NFC East is the least likely scenario outside of the Rams imploding and missing the playoffs.

The Cowboys need to pass one more team in the standings if we assume they win out. I’m going to assume they win out because if they don’t their chances to get to the playoffs drastically decrease and this whole exercise is pointless.

Irrelevant teams in the hunt for the Cowboys:

Panthers
Buccaneers
Lions

The cowboys are either already ahead of these teams (or will be when they win out) or they will be a division winner and thus not relevant.

Teams ahead of the cowboys:

Bears (3)
Packers (2 - tiebreaker considerations)
49ers (2)
Rams (3)
Seahawks (3)

These teams need to lose the indicated number of games for the cowboys to pass them in the wildcard standings. There are many games between all these teams where at least one of them will lose and that number ticks down one spot. We want one teams ticker to hit zero. For this reason we want either GB or CHI to sweep their series (Chicago sweep would be better as if that happens, Cowboys are in if they win out). We would prefer that these teams don’t split their loseable games in such a way that no team hits zero. It’s for this reason that Carolina beating the Rams was a good outcome because even if it’s highly unlikely that the Rams implode and hit zero, Carolina is not relevant as they are already behind the Cowboys in the standings.

The most likely path to the playoffs, though this is subjective, from most likely to least likely:

San Francisco losing two games (Tennessee, Seattle, Chicago, Indianapolis)

Chicago losing three games (Green Bay x2, San Francisco, Detroit, Cleveland)

Green Bay losing two conference games (Chicago x2, Minnesota, Denver, Baltimore)

Seattle losing three games (Atlanta, Indianapolis, LA Rams, Carolina, San Francisco)

Philadelphia losing two games (LA Chargers, Buffalo, Las Vegas, Washington x2)

LA Rams losing three more games (Arizona x2, Seattle, Atlanta, Detroit)

The biggest thing look out for is losses by teams that are not in the playoff hunt. I haven’t done the math for exact permutations of what could happen, but many of these teams ahead of us play each other and will drop their magic numbers down in these matchups. Any time a team loses to a team not in the hunt (or in the AFC) then that’s an extra number dropped and makes it much more difficult for the Cowboys to miss the playoffs if they win out.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Washington with a fresh Jayden Daniels are likely going to play the Eagles tough. And they will likely be a challenge for the Cowboys too.

Washington will be desperate to play spoiler for the NFC East foes, and Jayden may rekindle a little magic at the end of the season.

So the only "easy" game on the schedule for the Eagles is the Raiders game.

I don't share your high opinion of Washington, though it will be a division game so you never know.

 

[JBS]

Am I missing something.........there are NINE teams currently with a better record than the Cowboys. We need to finish with a better record than seven.........

Yeah you must be missing a lot

 

[Tabascocat]

Am I missing something.........there are NINE teams currently with a better record than the Cowboys. We need to finish with a better record than seven.........

Finish better than two of them

 

[cowboys1981]

Best scenario is us winning out and let the rest fall in place. No game is a give me. Philly could very well beat LAC and turn around to lose to Washington.

Schedules going into today:

I placed a ️on potential losses.


LAR 9-3:
@ CAROLINA 6-6️
@ ARIZONA 3-8
VS DETROIT 7-5️
@ SEATTLE 8-3 ️
@ ATLANTA 4-7
VS ARIZONA 3-8

CHICAGO 9-3:
@ GREEN BAY 8-3-1️
VS CLEVELAND
VS GREEN BAY 8-3-1️
@ SF 8-4️
VS DET 7-5️

PHILADELPHIA 8-4:
@ LAC 8-4️
VS LAS VEGAS 2-9
@ WASHINGTON 3-8
@ BUFFALO 7-4️
VS WASHINGTON 3-8

TB 7-5
VS ARIZONA 3-8️
VS NEW ORLEANS 2-9
VS ATLANTA 4-7
@ CAROLINA 6-6️
@ MIAMI 4-7
VS CAROLINA 6-6️

SEATTLE 9-3:
VS MINNESOTA 4-7️
@ ATLANTA 4-7
VS INDIANAPOLIS 8-3️
VS LAR 9-2️
@ CAROLINA 6-6️
@ SF 8-4️



GREEN BAY 8-3-1:
VS CHICAGO 9-3️
@ DENVER 9-2️
@ CHICAGO 9-3️
VS BALTIMORE 6-6️
@ MINNESOTA 4-7



SF 9-4:
@ CLEVELAND 3-8️
VS TENNESSEE 1-10
@ INDIANAPOLIS 8-3️
VS CHICAGO 9-3️
VS SEATTLE 8-3️

Dallas 6-5-1:
@DETROIT 7-5️
MINNESOTA 4-7
LAC 8-4️
@WSH 3-8
@NYG 2-10

 

[KMY_Amber]

I don't share your high opinion of Washington, though it will be a division game so you never know.

They are grittier than you think

 

[jaythecowboy]

They are grittier than you think

Washington just took Denver to OT

 

[TequilaCowboy]

As has been mentioned ad nauseum , the Cowboys have placed themselves in a position now that if they want to be in the playoffs… they must win out . Teams will beat each other up and they should make it as a WC or div champ.

Lose one game and their chances are almost nil. Too many hoops to jump through. Reservations to Cabo begin.

First challenge is Detroit.

 

[KMY_Amber]

Washington just took Denver to OT

And they may do the same against the Eagles, or even the Cowboys. Jayden will be back soon, and he'll complete more of these throws that Mariota can't.

Yes, Washington could get blown out, but they certainly will have the ability to play the Eagles and Cowboys tough...division games are always unpredictable. And Washington will have the added desire to bury their division foes. So neither the Eagles nor the Cowboys better should take those Washington games lightly.

 

[KMY_Amber]

As has been mentioned ad nauseum , the Cowboys have placed themselves in a position now that if they want to be in the playoffs… they must win out . Teams will beat each other up and they should make it as a WC or div champ.

Lose one game and their chances are almost nil. Too many hoops to jump through. Reservations to Cabo begin.

First challenge is Detroit.

No, this challenge started with the Raiders. Then, the Eagles, then the Chiefs.

They're going to have to go on one long win streak to end the season...and I still don't trust Schotty and Eb, not yet...not to win 8 in a row.

But we can all hope. Schotty, SHOCK THE WORLD!!!!

 

[gimmesix]

I've been saying winning the division is the way to go........wildcard is next to impossible IMO. We need way too many teams to collapse vs the Eagles, losing 2-3 more games.

That's one path, but we don't need too many teams to collapse to get there another way, we just need one of six teams to collapse (Eagles, Rams, Bears, Seahawks, 49ers and Packers). Just because it didn't happen this week for the WC route doesn't mean that much. There weren't really a whole lot of games that were toss-ups. And the Rams lost anyway to a Panthers team that had been reeling, which shows that the unexpected can happen.

Philly lost on Friday in the only game this week that was really a toss-up game. If the Bears had lost instead, fans would be saying that's our most realistic path. Lots to still be settled with some good matchups remaining.

The one thing Dallas has to do is not lose much. The Cowboys may not be able to afford even one loss and stay in contention.

Now, my preferred path is a Philly collapse and Dallas surging to the division title, because it's the Eagles and because it would give us at least one home game.

 

[Daktozekecoop]

The.Eagles Chargers game is huge. Eagles are sliding. If they lose then, they have the Bills. So yeah Dallas simply needs to win out.

 

[Tabascocat]

I was playing around with the simulator and there is a decent chance that three 12-win teams can come from the NFCW. It would depend on how they do in H2H but it is very possible. If that is the case, GB can’t finish at 11-5-1 if Dallas wins out. I don’t know how the tiebreaker with them would look by then though.

 

[gtb1943]

if we are able to win out that means 8 wins in a row

that is the hard part