The Cowboys' realist path to the Big Dance

[kramskoi]

Well you need the following (over the last five games, with possible losses in bold):


(9-3) Seattle...(2-3)...Falcons, Colts, Rams, Panthers, 49ers
(9-3) Bears...(2-3)...Packers, Browns, Packers, 49ers, Lions (if Seattle and Chicago can both take out the 49ers you are in at 11-5-1 or maybe even 10-6-1)
(8-4) 49ers...(2-2)...Titans, Colts, Bears, Seahawks
(8-4) Eagles...(3-2)...Chargers, Raiders, Commanders, Bills, Commanders
(8-3-1) Packers...(3-2)...Bears, Broncos, Bears, Ravens, Vikings

Easiest path on paper is 49ers, Eagles, Packers. Harder paths with Seahawks and Bears...and both teams are playing really well at the moment.

 

[kramskoi]

Well you need the following (over the last five games, with possible losses in bold):


(9-3) Seattle...(2-3)...Falcons, Colts, Rams, Panthers, 49ers
(9-3) Bears...(2-3)...Packers, Browns, Packers, 49ers, Lions (if Seattle and Chicago can both take out the 49ers you are in at 11-5-1 or maybe even 10-6-1)
(8-4) 49ers...(2-2)...Titans, Colts, Bears, Seahawks
(8-4) Eagles...(3-2)...Chargers, Raiders, Commanders, Bills, Commanders
(8-3-1) Packers...(3-2)...Bears, Broncos, Bears, Ravens, Vikings

Easiest path on paper is 49ers, Eagles, Packers. Harder paths with Seahawks and Bears...and both teams are playing really well at the moment.

If you believe that the Packers can't sweep the Bears (which is hard to do within the division) then you only need them to lose one more...to either the Broncos or the Ravens. The Vikings game is more of a wildcard. The 49ers don't have the defense they once had...and the offense is missing pieces. They could absolutely lose to the Seahawks, Bears or Colts.

 

[Beast_from_East]

In my opinion Philadelphia dropping the NFC East is the least likely scenario outside of the Rams imploding and missing the playoffs.

The Cowboys need to pass one more team in the standings if we assume they win out. I’m going to assume they win out because if they don’t their chances to get to the playoffs drastically decrease and this whole exercise is pointless.

Irrelevant teams in the hunt for the Cowboys:

Panthers
Buccaneers
Lions

The cowboys are either already ahead of these teams (or will be when they win out) or they will be a division winner and thus not relevant.

Teams ahead of the cowboys:

Bears (3)
Packers (2 - tiebreaker considerations)
49ers (2)
Rams (3)
Seahawks (3)

These teams need to lose the indicated number of games for the cowboys to pass them in the wildcard standings. There are many games between all these teams where at least one of them will lose and that number ticks down one spot. We want one teams ticker to hit zero. For this reason we want either GB or CHI to sweep their series (Chicago sweep would be better as if that happens, Cowboys are in if they win out). We would prefer that these teams don’t split their loseable games in such a way that no team hits zero. It’s for this reason that Carolina beating the Rams was a good outcome because even if it’s highly unlikely that the Rams implode and hit zero, Carolina is not relevant as they are already behind the Cowboys in the standings.

The most likely path to the playoffs, though this is subjective, from most likely to least likely:

San Francisco losing two games (Tennessee, Seattle, Chicago, Indianapolis)

Chicago losing three games (Green Bay x2, San Francisco, Detroit, Cleveland)

Green Bay losing two conference games (Chicago x2, Minnesota, Denver, Baltimore)

Seattle losing three games (Atlanta, Indianapolis, LA Rams, Carolina, San Francisco)

Philadelphia losing two games (LA Chargers, Buffalo, Las Vegas, Washington x2)

LA Rams losing three more games (Arizona x2, Seattle, Atlanta, Detroit)

The biggest thing look out for is losses by teams that are not in the playoff hunt. I haven’t done the math for exact permutations of what could happen, but many of these teams ahead of us play each other and will drop their magic numbers down in these matchups. Any time a team loses to a team not in the hunt (or in the AFC) then that’s an extra number dropped and makes it much more difficult for the Cowboys to miss the playoffs if they win out.

Excellent analysis my friend.

The biggest hurdle to getting to the playoffs is the Cowboys winning out. They have already won 3 games in a row, so to win another 5 games in a row means an 8-game winning streak.

Even the best teams in the league, number one seed contenders, dont win 8 games in a row very often. That is incredibly difficult to do in today's NFL, that is basically going half the entire season without a loss.

 

[zeroburrito]

Am I missing something.........there are NINE teams currently with a better record than the Cowboys. We need to finish with a better record than seven.........

wildcard is a fantasy at this point. people high on that copium.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Beat the Lions - nothing else matters

Yeah, I think this goes without saying.

A loss to the Lions basically kills any realistic chance of a Wildcard, thus, our only path to the playoffs would be a Philly collapse and win the division.

We are currently 1.5 games behind Philly with 5 games left.
We go 5-0, Philly has to lose 2 games
We go 4-1, Philly has to lose 3 games
We go 3-2, Philly has to lose 4 games
We go 2-3, Philly has to lose 5 games

 

[Chasing6]

Is it going to be fun when we play Phenom Trance in 3 weeks???

 

[kramskoi]

I've been saying winning the division is the way to go........wildcard is next to impossible IMO. We need way too many teams to collapse vs the Eagles, losing 2-3 more games.

Losing 2 of 5 isn't really a "collapse". It's just a tougher part of the schedule. 49ers, Eagles, Packers. But with a loss it becomes a real long-shot to make the playoffs.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Losing 2 of 5 isn't really a "collapse". It's just a tougher part of the schedule. 49ers, Eagles, Packers. But with a loss it becomes a real long-shot to make the playoffs.

Yeah, if we lose 1 more game then Philly has to go 2-3.

Considering they still have the Raiders on their schedule, I find it hard to believe Philly is going to drop another 3 games.

Oh well, fun exercise to think out the possible scenarios, but all that really matters is beating Detroit Thursday. Lose that game and all of this is pretty much moot.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Non throwing hand…may not miss anytime

Correct. Plus, the Chargers are fighting for a wildcard birth themselves in the AFC, so they most likely are going to try to see if Herbert can play without missing any games if possible.

If nothing else, let's pray Trance pulls off several miracles. lol

 

[Cowboyny]

I've been saying winning the division is the way to go........wildcard is next to impossible IMO. We need way too many teams to collapse vs the Eagles, losing 2-3 more games.

Still a ton of football left, all they can do is keep on winning and hope teams ahead of them lose some games. Good thing is, several still have to play each other.

 

[Risen Star]

Beat the Lions - nothing else matters

Lions 26
Cowboys 20

 

[Swagger]

All on the Lions game. This is the interesting one as realistically there weren't really any expectations against the Eagles or Chiefs. The season looked all but over so the guys could play loose without much pressure.

With four winnable games to follow (three bad teams playing for nothing and a banged up Chargers including the quarterback) this is just huge and it will not be lost on the players.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Still a ton of football left, all they can do is keep on winning and hope teams ahead of them lose some games. Good thing is, several still have to play each other.

Strange things happen but IF, and that's a big one, we pull off a win against the Lions, who knows what can happen.

 

[Jipper]

This week is critical....have to close to a half game of philly...we must win amd they must lose.....then the path is clear.

So little chance for a wc its not even worth wasting time on now

 

[Hawkeye0202]

All on the Lions game. This is the interesting one as realistically there weren't really any expectations against the Eagles or Chiefs. The season looked all but over so the guys could play loose without much pressure.

With four winnable games to follow (three bad teams playing for nothing and a banged up Chargers including the quarterback) this is just huge and it will not be lost on the players.

+1 ....... their playoff hopes/chances could come down to this game. Honestly, I have a good feeling about this game, similar to the Eagles game. This will come down to our defense vs their offense IMO. Remember, Campbell took over play calling from OC Morton in week 10.

 

[csirl]

I think it will be easier to win the NFCE than get a WC. We're not catching the 9 win teams in NFCW - that's 2 of the 3 WC spots gone straight away. Not all of the other WC contenders will collapse. Note that some of the WC contenders play each other - so they cant all lose out!

 

[Jipper]

I think it will be easier to win the NFCE than get a WC. We're not catching the 9 win teams in NFCW - that's 2 of the 3 WC spots gone straight away. Not all of the other WC contenders will collapse. Note that some of the WC contenders play each other - so they cant all lose out!

I agree, but while they cant loae out they will lose some, we need the division winners to run away with their divisions fo the wc to be in play

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I think it will be easier to win the NFCE than get a WC. We're not catching the 9 win teams in NFCW - that's 2 of the 3 WC spots gone straight away. Not all of the other WC contenders will collapse. Note that some of the WC contenders play each other - so they cant all lose out!

Bingo!

 

[TNCowboy]

Outside chance of WC still. Bears and 49ers have a lot of potential losses on their schedules.

I'd wager if Dallas wins out, they get in. Problem is they most likely won't win out.

 

[Cowboyny]

Strange things happen but IF, and that's a big one, we pull off a win against the Lions, who knows what can happen.

Yes, all means nothing without a win this week. Definitely a must win!