The debate over Murray's worth will likely swing heavily come Sunday

[romothesavior]

If money is not an issue, you never settle for a second-tier player at ANY position if a first-tier player is available.

Ha, well yeah... Problem is money is always an issue.

 

[KJJ]

Murray's an excellent back; I don't think anyone is arguing against that, and if they are, they're silly. I will note this, though:

1992: Emmitt 4.6 ypa, Richards 3.6
1993: Emmitt 5.3, Lassic 3.6
1994: Emmitt 4.0, Coleman 2.8
1995: Emmitt 4.7, Williams 4.3

2014: Murray 4.8, Randle 7.0 (Dunbar 3.5)

I'm very pleased with Randle as the backup and fully expect him to have a fine game if Murray can't go or is limited. (Of course, if Free's out and Martin can't go or is limited, we may have some problems no matter who the RB is).

No one is arguing Murray is an excellent back but what many are arguing is the Cowboys won't miss a beat with Randle alone or a Dunbar/Randle rotation due to the OL and I don't agree. As for Randle's 7.0 rushing average this season that average is very misleading because he's only carried the ball 34 times this season. That average has been blown up due to a few long runs. Randle has benefitted by coming in with fresh legs later in games taking advantage of some big holes and defenses that have been softened up by Murray. Against Seattle Randle carried the ball only 5 times averaging 10.4 a carry due to a 38 yard run. Against Washington he only carried the ball 3 times averaging 7.7 a carry due to a 12 yard run. Against JAX he carried the ball only 7 times averaging 8.0 a carry due to a 40 yard run. He got very little on 6 of his 7 carries but his average got blown up due to that 40 yard run.

In 2008 Felix Jones only carried the ball 30 times that season averaging 8.0 a carry due to some long runs. The more his carries increased the lower his rushing average went. By the time he became a starter he was averaging under 4.0 a carry. It's been the same thing with every back the Cowboys have had since Emmitt once their carries increase they weren't consistent except for Murray. He's had 351 carries this season and is averaging 4.8 a carry which is very impressive for a back with that many carries. He's getting a lot of tough 4-5 yard runs and is able to push the pile. I can assure you once Randle's carries go up his 7.0 rushing average will come way down.

 

[KJJ]

Funny can't remember a lot of things but remember a lot of Cowboys games. lol .

Same here I can remember specifics about Cowboy games 25 years ago but can't remember some of the most important things like birthdays and anniversaries which may explain why I'm on my second marriage. lol

 

[Nirvana]

Thing about Randle and Dunbar is they are less likely to pick up the "dirty yards" that are crucial to 3rd and shorts, first downs, touchdowns, etc.

Murray is a top 5 back in the league and will get paid like one. This season's body of work will be rewarded. But it won't be the Cowboys who give him that contract. I am glad as those contracts are scary.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Imagine for a moment that Randle and Dunbar burst onto the scene in Murray's absence, The talk of our offensive line being the catalyst that sprung Murray will go into over drive. It could go a long way in either parting ways with him or driving his price down.

However, if they fail to produce, then many who have sold Murray short will likely jump on the opposing bandwagon and reconsider cutting ties with him. If this were the outcome, I'd certainly hate to be either Randle or Dunbar. There would be no talk of a future with them, as it would be all about Murray or bringing in an outsider.

Really? Against an average Indy run d? Whoppie for Randle or Dunbar.

 

[JD_KaPow]

No one is arguing Murray is an excellent back but what many are arguing is the Cowboys won't miss a beat with Randle alone or a Dunbar/Randle rotation due to the OL and I don't agree. As for Randle's 7.0 rushing average this season that average is very misleading because he's only carried the ball 34 times this season. That average has been blown up due to a few long runs. Randle has benefitted by coming in with fresh legs later in games taking advantage of some big holes and defenses that have been softened up by Murray. Against Seattle Randle carried the ball only 5 times averaging 10.4 a carry due to a 38 yard run. Against Washington he only carried the ball 3 times averaging 7.7 a carry due to a 12 yard run. Against JAX he carried the ball only 7 times averaging 8.0 a carry due to a 40 yard run. He got very little on 6 of his 7 carries but his average got blown up due to that 40 yard run.

In 2008 Felix Jones only carried the ball 30 times that season averaging 8.0 a carry due to some long runs. The more his carries increased the lower his rushing average went. By the time he became a starter he was averaging under 4.0 a carry. It's been the same thing with every back the Cowboys have had since Emmitt once their carries increase they weren't consistent except for Murray. He's had 351 carries this season and is averaging 4.8 a carry which is very impressive for a back with that many carries. He's getting a lot of tough 4-5 yard runs and is able to push the pile. I can assure you once Randle's carries go up his 7.0 rushing average will come way down.

Wow, that's a long response to argue against things I didn't say.

I wasn't arguing that Randle can maintain an absurdly high ypa, and I wasn't arguing that he's better (or even as good as) Murray. The point is that he's a far more capable back than any of Emmitt's backups that were brought into the discussion, and I have high confidence that he can carry the load tomorrow if called upon to do so. I can't speak to his pass protection, which is the biggest concern I would have, but it sounds like the team is comfortable with that part of his game.

And every back's ypa is inflated by long runs. The distribution is nowhere near normal for anyone. Take away the runs >10 yards and no back approaches 4 ypa (Murray averages 2.9, Randle averages 3.1). 40% of Murray's runs have gone for 2 yards or less (29% for Randle). The fact that Randle has ripped off a number of long runs speaks well of him.

I'll further note that most of Randle's long runs have come in the first quarter, not "taking advantage of...defenses that have been softened up by Murray." Randle's had 8 first-quarter runs: 38, 14, 12, 11, 4, 3, 1, -1. In fact, not one of his long runs has come in the 4th quarter.

 

[Risen Star]

Same here I can remember specifics about Cowboy games 25 years ago but can't remember some of the most important things like birthdays and anniversaries which may explain why I'm on my second marriage. lol

You, sir, have your priorities in order.

 

[Avery]

Murray out has outperformed every expectation this year and it will serve him well on the open market next year for his last big contract in the league. That being said, at 27.5 years old at the start of next season, he's coming close to the 30 wall where a dropoff is expected and likely to occur. You can already tell that he's a step slower this late in the season when he gets loose. If it's a friendly deal for three years, I'm fine with it, but Demarco's smart enough to know that this is the last great change to cash in as a player and wearing a star will have little bearing over the number of zeroes offered on a sheet of paper.

Much like a Brita water filter, RB's are use, abuse and discard. Just because one has produced great-tasting water for a bit longer than others doesn't mean that it's going to last forever.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

No doubt that "life without Demarco" will be on full display Sunday. He's definitely a quality back but he's on a team with serious defensive needs and a tiny window with Romo retiring soon. Where's that money best spent? In free agency you can pay a top 5 defensive lineman basically the same money as a top 5 RB and you would arguably have a better chance at landing a decent RB in the middle of the draft than you would a defensive lineman. Also, I'm very curious to see if Randle's speed is a good match for the kind of blocking this OL provides. Some home runs would be nice but not at the expense of consistent 3-4 yard gains.

 

[KJJ]

Wow, that's a long response to argue against things I didn't say.

I wasn't arguing that Randle can maintain an absurdly high ypa, and I wasn't arguing that he's better (or even as good as) Murray. The point is that he's a far more capable back than any of Emmitt's backups that were brought into the discussion, and I have high confidence that he can carry the load tomorrow if called upon to do so. I can't speak to his pass protection, which is the biggest concern I would have, but it sounds like the team is comfortable with that part of his game.

And every back's ypa is inflated by long runs. The distribution is nowhere near normal for anyone. Take away the runs >10 yards and no back approaches 4 ypa (Murray averages 2.9, Randle averages 3.1). 40% of Murray's runs have gone for 2 yards or less (29% for Randle). The fact that Randle has ripped off a number of long runs speaks well of him.

I'll further note that most of Randle's long runs have come in the first quarter, not "taking advantage of...defenses that have been softened up by Murray." Randle's had 8 first-quarter runs: 38, 14, 12, 11, 4, 3, 1, -1. In fact, not one of his long runs has come in the 4th quarter.

Last season Randle carried the ball 54 times and averaged 3.0 a carry his longest run was 19 yards. He had 2 starts last season and averaged only 3.4 vs Philly in 19 carries and a dreadful 1.9 vs Detroit in 14 carries. He had a 38 yard run vs Seattle in week 6 this season but only gained 14 yards on his other 4 carries. He had a 40 yard run vs JAX but only gained 16 yards on his other 6 carries. He had one carry vs Chicago but broke it for 17 yards. Regardless of when his long runs have come they came after Murray softened up the defense some. He came in with fresh legs vs defenses that had been facing Murray for a number of carries Marion Barber excelled in that role. I have to see some consistency over a number of carries before I'll be sold on him as a viable starter. I want to see him pick up some of the dirty yards that move the chains keeping drives alive. He's had some big holes open up for him but I want to see what he can do when there's not much there carry after carry. Let's see if he can push the pile for 4-5 yards like Murray does. I've seen plenty of backs in relief break runs looking terrific with only a handful of carries and do nothing once they're handed a big workload.

If Randle has success tomorrow they'll be plenty of FANS on the board that will be completely sold on him as a quality starting back and will be ready to say goodbye to Murray. I have to see consistency from week to week to be sold on a player. None of us have seen enough of Randle to know what he can do over the long haul as a workhorse. With Murray we saw some big games where he had a number of carries before this OL was built but we haven't seen that with Randle. He had 2 starting opportunities last season that saw him carry the ball 34 times and he failed. If he's called upon tomorrow to carry the ball a lot and doesn't produce then he'll remain stuck as a backup if Murray is lost to free agency. Randle better take advantage of the opportunities he gets tomorrow because the Cowboys have to come away with the win and if the lack of a running game is blamed for a loss he'll never be depended on again with a significant number of carries.

 

[dupree89]

I may regret this, but I think a combination of Randle/ Dunbar will get the job done tomorrow if Murray doesnt go or plays very little....IF....IF..and I know this is a huge IF...but if they don't fumble, I am comfortable against the colts D with these 2 guys.

 

[Thomas82]

The problem is a lot of fans don't see that. It's like with Emmitt most gave the OL the credit and still do to this day due to the Cowboys having what most consider the greatest OL in NFL history. That OL was so great it's been named the Great Wall of Dallas and was documented in NFLN's A Football Life. Not even Emmitt's career has been documented on it's A Football Life yet but several other backs have including Terrell Davis who'll never have a bust in Canton. Emmitt came out of some piles and made plays on his own at times but he's been disrespected some due to the Cowboys great OL. The same with Murray the OL is receiving most of the credit and it's clearly been part of the reason for his success but as I've said several times he had some big games before this OL was built.

That 253-yard game his rookie year was the first game that came to my mind.

 

[dupree89]

I am listening to 94 WIP Eagles Pre Game show right now. One guy is a former Eagle player, though I havent caught who it is. He just says....(paraphrase but accurate to make point) Cowboys aren't concerned about Murray for next year, he will be gone after this season and Adrian Peterson will be the Cowboys RB next year.

 

[CCBoy]

In a 'changed' NFL one still has to invest in what is currently a league leading level of play...no matter how slick one tries to be in theoretical manipulations. Pay both the men.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I am listening to 94 WIP Eagles Pre Game show right now. One guy is a former Eagle player, though I havent caught who it is. He just says....(paraphrase but accurate to make point) Cowboys aren't concerned about Murray for next year, he will be gone after this season and Adrian Peterson will be the Cowboys RB next year.

I can understand why someone would feel that way but that is just speculation at this point and not based on any real evidence to support it. Oh I forgot, I've read that here many times so it must be true.

 

[Thomas82]

I can understand why someone would feel that way but that is just speculation at this point and not based on any real evidence to support it. Oh I forgot, I've read that here many times so it must be true.

The Vikings already said they don't plan on letting AP go.

 

[KJJ]

That 253-yard game his rookie year was the first game that came to my mind.

I mentioned that in another post and Tyron was the only #1 pick we had on that OL and both he and Murray were rookies when Murray put up that 253 yards.

 

[dupree89]

I can understand why someone would feel that way but that is just speculation at this point and not based on any real evidence to support it. Oh I forgot, I've read that here many times so it must be true.

yeah, I was just relaying the discussion. I have no clue what will happen. But I dont sink much $$ into RBs, but thats just me.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Last season Randle carried the ball 54 times and averaged 3.0 a carry his longest run was 19 yards.

Yes, and he has looked like a completely different back in his sophomore season. And it's shown up in his performance so far.

He had a 38 yard run vs Seattle in week 6 this season but only gained 14 yards on his other 4 carries. He had a 40 yard run vs JAX but only gained 16 yards on his other 6 carries. He had one carry vs Chicago but broke it for 17 yards.

I think you don't understand what typical distributions of gains look like.
In Seattle, his "only 14 yards" on 4 carries is 3.5 ypa AFTER removing his best run. As I've already shown, that's an excellent number for any back after you take out his >10 yard runs. Not sure how getting 17 yards on your only run is a point against you. And again, his performance when he's not breaking a big run is very consistent with what we see from good RBs.

Regardless of when his long runs have come they came after Murray softened up the defense some. He came in with fresh legs vs defenses that had been facing Murray for a number of carries

Okay, now this is just silly. We've gone from "late in the game" to "after at least one Murray carry." Randle's best work has come in the 1st quarter. But then, you wouldn't be KJJ if you weren't moving goalposts.

Obviously, we don't know for sure what Randle will do with an increased workload. He's not going to average 7 yards per carry over any length of time. And yet, I'm comfortable with him getting the start tomorrow, as in, way less concerned than I will be if Martin can't go or is hobbled (and way less concerned than I ever was when Derrick Lassic or Lincoln Coleman was the next man up).

 

[KJJ]

Okay, now this is just silly. We've gone from "late in the game" to "after at least one Murray carry." Randle's best work has come in the 1st quarter. But then, you wouldn't be KJJ if you weren't moving goalposts.

I never said "from late in the game" I said from "later" in the game which means anytime after the opening KO so you're the one attempting to move the goalposts. We've argued this enough we'll just see how things go from this day forward.