The Escobar Pick: Revisting the Cowboys Draft Board

[SWG9]

It's a weird thread for sure, IMO.

We validate the Escobar pick by using the Cowboys board that had Escobar as the 2nd best player available but at the same time we don't acknowledge that Escobar hasn't looked anything like a 2nd round pick.

Every conversation about this last draft is bizarre.

If you're going to justify the Escobar pick by saying he was the 25th player on Dallas's board, you have to be able to logically explain why Dallas passed on Floyd, who they had rated at #5.

It can't be done because it's inherently illogical, yet around and around we go in circles trying to explain the unexplainable.

 

[SWG9]

For the record I agree with you the OL scouting has been questionable the past 5-7 years. Look no further then Brewster and Martin. I just think it's more of a systematic problem with scouting rather then the idea that the cowboys specifically avoiding drafting the position.

The purpose of this thread is really to get at the draft strategy aspect of the decision making. In other words people think we should have taken OL but how far are they willing to reach.

I agree that would be interesting, but it's almost impossible to piece together what exactly happened. We know the scouts made a board, and we know that board can be overruled. We don't know who has veto power, or on what basis it can be exercised, or how often it can be used, or in what circumstances, or what the actual thought process is.

I kind of get the sense that Jerry "gave" the coaches the Frederick pick, and then "gave" the scouts the Escobar pick. Nothing but pure conjecture, but so is almost everything else.

I've obviously got a ton of questions though. The first one being that if the scouts had Floyd ranked #5, and the coaches didn't want him...doesn't that indicate a major disconnect between the two branches? I mean, disagreement is one thing, but being on totally different pages is another.

 

[starfrombirth]

I would have even reached for Barrett Jones over Escobar

+1 for me.

 

[85Cowboy85]

Every conversation about this last draft is bizarre.

If you're going to justify the Escobar pick by saying he was the 25th player on Dallas's board, you have to be able to logically explain why Dallas passed on Floyd, who they had rated at #5.

It can't be done because it's inherently illogical, yet around and around we go in circles trying to explain the unexplainable.

I actually favored picking Floyd. I don't know why you are conflating the two.

Secondly even if I was a supporter of the trade down the situations are different. Frederick was a player who could step in right away and start where as there was no such player available at 51 (at least according to the Cowboys scouts).

One of the main points of this thread is that even if you aren't a pure BPA person like me the amount you would have to reach for an OL/DL at 51 was so large that it becomes almost untenable. The DL who was in the neighborhood Hunt was a huge project and would likely not have been ready year one. By the time Hunt was ready there would have been several opportunities to address the position. Thus the benefits of drafting for need in that case would have been limited at best.

This is different then the Frederick situation where you landed an immediate starter for your biggest need that you couldn't address in FA because of limited cap room.

 

[arglebargle]

Every conversation about this last draft is bizarre.

If you're going to justify the Escobar pick by saying he was the 25th player on Dallas's board, you have to be able to logically explain why Dallas passed on Floyd, who they had rated at #5.

It can't be done because it's inherently illogical, yet around and around we go in circles trying to explain the unexplainable.

Trading picks is not coupled directly to player value at that spot. It's a risk you take on more good players being available at the picks you've traded for.

If it was strictly about player value, no one would ever trade down in the first ten picks or so.

 

[SWG9]

For the sake of interest, here's what Dallas's 2013 draft would have looked like if they had gone purely by their board and not made any trades. I'll also assume that the guys they actually took would not have fallen to their next pick (so no Frederick at #47 or Wilcox at #114)

#18: Sharrif Floyd, DT (#5 on the board)
#47: Terrance Williams, WR (#23 on the board)
#80: Ryan Nassib, QB (#28 on their board)
#114: BW Webb, CB (#47 on their board)
#151: Everitt Dawkins, DT (#62 on their board, went #229 to Minnesota. Odd.)
#185: DC Jefferson, TE (#63 on their board, went #219 to Arizona)

 

[Toruk_Makto]

If we're sticking with the draft board, wouldn't Floyd have been the pick at #1? The fact that they broke the draft board in the first round also suggests they may not necessarily followed the script on the rest of the board.

Either way, this does a good job of showing where the Cowboys head was at - skill positions, not OL or DL. Luckily with Frederick on board, we at least got some OL help before going skill position crazy.

How many times must we go through this? Had they stayed at 18 and not drafted Floyd they would have "broken the draft board."

Instead they traded back to better align value and position of need.

This isn't difficult.

In the end the Cowboys showed that they very much follow their board.

You can question if they evaluate talent well but not if they follow their board.

 

[ThreeandOut]

Every conversation about this last draft is bizarre.

If you're going to justify the Escobar pick by saying he was the 25th player on Dallas's board, you have to be able to logically explain why Dallas passed on Floyd, who they had rated at #5.

It can't be done because it's inherently illogical, yet around and around we go in circles trying to explain the unexplainable.

Okay, here is my theory...

In general, the Cowboys are a BPA drafting team. If there is a player that is rated significantly higher on their board, then they're going to take that player even if the position isn't an immediate glaring need. I think we saw this play out in several cases in this draft (Escobar, Williams, Webb) and in past drafts in recent years.

However, due to numerous 2nd/3rd round draft busts, the Cowboys have gotten very strict in their grading of OL. This approach makes it very difficult to pick OL's as they are often selected by other teams much higher than the Cowboys draft grade. So if have an OL like Frederick that you think can be an immediate contributor, you need to make some concessions with the BPA approach. But even here they didn't abandon BPA altogether. Instead, they traded back to a position where Frederick was the BPA at their selection.

 

[SWG9]

How many times must we go through this? Had they stayed at 18 and not drafted Floyd they would have "broken the draft board."

Instead they traded back to better align value and position of need.

This isn't difficult.

In the end the Cowboys showed that they very much follow their board.

You can question if they evaluate talent well but not if they follow their board.

What about staying at #18 and drafting Floyd?

 

[TheCount]

How many times must we go through this? Had they stayed at 18 and not drafted Floyd they would have "broken the draft board."

Instead they traded back to better align value and position of need.

This isn't difficult.

In the end the Cowboys showed that they very much follow their board.

You can question if they evaluate talent well but not if they follow their board.

You're right, I'm not sure how many times we must go through this either. Sticking with the board = drafting Floyd at 18.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

What about staying at #18 and drafting Floyd?

I believe if they couldn't have found a trade partner they would have done exactly that.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You're right, I'm not sure how many times we must go through this either. Sticking with the board = drafting Floyd at 18.

Oh well perhaps if you have the mind of a child you'd think it was that simple. Do you have the mind of a child?

 

[17yearsandcounting]

Like I have said before, how do you go 3 years in a college program and only manage 12 reps? I went to highschool with an NFL TE and he did that his junior year.

 

[TheCount]

Oh well perhaps if you have the mind of a child you'd think it was that simple. Do you have the mind of a child?

Why are you being a jerk about this? What I'm saying isn't that complex and it certainly isn't inflammatory enough to get into all this childish nonsense.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Why are you being a jerk about this? What I'm saying isn't that complex and it certainly isn't inflammatory enough to get into all this childish nonsense.

I'm just frustrated from having this conversation over and over. And to me i've tried to simplify it as much as possible. Your response completely ignored all rationale and assumes that the only way to be true to one's draft board is to follow a rigid sense of just select the highest guy rated who is available. If that was the case trading down would ALWAYS be incorrect. Surely you don't believe that.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

I agree that would be interesting, but it's almost impossible to piece together what exactly happened. We know the scouts made a board, and we know that board can be overruled. We don't know who has veto power, or on what basis it can be exercised, or how often it can be used, or in what circumstances, or what the actual thought process is.

I kind of get the sense that Jerry "gave" the coaches the Frederick pick, and then "gave" the scouts the Escobar pick. Nothing but pure conjecture, but so is almost everything else.

I've obviously got a ton of questions though. The first one being that if the scouts had Floyd ranked #5, and the coaches didn't want him...doesn't that indicate a major disconnect between the two branches? I mean, disagreement is one thing, but being on totally different pages is another.

Agreed. Dallas took a number of players off their board that were not scheme fits, like Jesse Williams (3-4 NT) and Larry Warford. Yet, they kept Sharif Floyd on the board at #5. And while the party line was Marinelli/Kiffen didnt think he was a good fit (I'm not buying it), Garrett, the head coach, was livid on screen when Jerry traded down. So the scouts and apparently the head coach wanted Floyd. And Jerry apparently vetoed them and traded down.

 

[tantrix1969]

Okay, here is my theory...

In general, the Cowboys are a BPA drafting team. If there is a player that is rated significantly higher on their board, then they're going to take that player even if the position isn't an immediate glaring need. I think we saw this play out in several cases in this draft (Escobar, Williams, Webb) and in past drafts in recent years.

However, due to numerous 2nd/3rd round draft busts, the Cowboys have gotten very strict in their grading of OL. This approach makes it very difficult to pick OL's as they are often selected by other teams much higher than the Cowboys draft grade. So if have an OL like Frederick that you think can be an immediate contributor, you need to make some concessions with the BPA approach. But even here they didn't abandon BPA altogether. Instead, they traded back to a position where Frederick was the BPA at their selection.

think they were targeting Pugh with the trade back Frederick was second choice after Giants took Pugh

 

[ThreeandOut]

You're right, I'm not sure how many times we must go through this either. Sticking with the board = drafting Floyd at 18.

So if Floyd had gone before 18, it's likely that the BPA would have been the CB, Xavier Rhodes. So in that case, sticking with the board = drafting Rhodes at 18. Would you have been okay with drafting another CB at #1 after gettting Carr and Clairborne last year?

 

[ThreeandOut]

think they were targeting Pugh with the trade back Frederick was second choice after Giants took Pugh

They were looking at both. They ranked them pretty closely.

 

[BAT]

So if Floyd had gone before 18, it's likely that the BPA would have been the CB, Xavier Rhodes. So in that case, sticking with the board = drafting Rhodes at 18. Would you have been okay with drafting another CB at #1 after gettting Carr and Clairborne last year?

Rhodes may be a better fit in Kiffen's D scheme than Claiborne. So if they had traded Mo and took the X-Man at 18, I would not have balked too much. I am just glad the Cowboys did not take Floyd.