The Final Thread: Matt Johnson Released

[Arkyvarminter]

What are the odds this kid was going to go on and play productive safety in the NFL? How many guys like him do this? 1 out of 4,000? Think about it!

 

[Idgit]

What are the odds this kid was going to go on and play productive safety in the NFL? How many guys like him do this? 1 out of 4,000? Think about it!

About one chance in three of a player drafted in his round being on a roster four years later (higher than I'd have thought). Adjust that downward for a guy who's been camped out on IR most of that whole time.

 

[AbeBeta]

We didn't keep him around for 3 years without high expectations. I think the term is relative. Bust = disappointment and a wasted pick. The Cowboys were expecting more. So was I. I call it a bust. All that effort put into making him a player down the drain.

Go study draft history. You can call at least 25% of 4th rounders "busts" by your definition. Only a fool counts on every 4th rounder to contribute.

 

[bark]

Even cats die after the 9th time

 

[DFWJC]

What are the odds this kid was going to go on and play productive safety in the NFL? How many guys like him do this? 1 out of 4,000? Think about it!

I think the odds are pretty good that he'll eventually make a team...starting is a different story.

 

[Risen Star]

About one chance in three of a player drafted in his round being on a roster four years later (higher than I'd have thought). Adjust that downward for a guy who's been camped out on IR most of that whole time.

And adjust it way downward when you consider he wasn't a 4th round talent and may have been the worst pick in that entire draft. You can't throw a blanket on them and give them the same chance at success. Quincy Carter and Tony Dixon didn't have as good a chance to succeed in the NFL as Chad Johnson and Matt Light simply because they all went in the 2nd round. That's ridiculous. They were 2nd round reaches. Huge reaches. They didn't belong in that portion of the draft. Just like Matt Johnson had no business being selected in that 4th round.

 

[Idgit]

Practice Squad

 

[Idgit]

And adjust it way downward when you consider he wasn't a 4th round talent and may have been the worst pick in that entire draft. You can't throw a blanket on them and give them the same chance at success. Quincy Carter and Tony Dixon didn't have as good a chance to succeed in the NFL as Chad Johnson and Matt Light simply because they all went in the 2nd round. That's ridiculous. They were 2nd round reaches. Huge reaches. They didn't belong in that portion of the draft. Just like Matt Johnson had no business being selected in that 4th round.

And yet...he was.

It only takes one team to disagree with you to make him an actual 4th round talent. From there, I'm just providing a baseline for the probability of 'guys deemed by at least one team to have 4th round talent' sticking around after a third camp.

 

[Risen Star]

And yet...he was.

It only takes one team to disagree with you to make him an actual 4th round talent. From there, I'm just providing a baseline for the probability of 'guys deemed by at least one team to have 4th round talent' sticking around after a third camp.

Yeah but if one team makes the mistake and wastes a pick on a player nobody else has in that round, vs. a team using a pick on a consensus top 120 player overall, those two prospects do not have the same chance at success in the NFL.

You're reaching desperately to defend the team.

 

[DFWJC]

The NFL designates comp picks to the round that they follow. Some forget that although the 4th round starterd with the 96th pick, Johnson was not picked until 135. He was the very last of the 8 comp picks taken after the 4th round in 2012.
The next pick was pick 1 in the 5th.

 

[Tawney88]

You knew it was coming (the thread, that is).

Rue away, Zoners.

http://i1133.***BLOCKED***/albums/m593/mrrager45/tumblr_lblrbtFuJp1qbqqbp.gif

 

[Idgit]

Yeah but if one team makes the mistake and wastes a pick on a player nobody else has in that round, vs. a team using a pick on a consensus top 120 player overall, those two prospects do not have the same chance at success in the NFL.

You're reaching desperately to defend the team.

It's not a defense of the team. It was an attempt to quantify an honest question. You're trying to make a point that doesn't exist for a reason that escapes my speculation. If it makes you feel more comfortable to think his odds of 'playing productive safety' in the NFL are less than 'something less than 1-in-3,' by all means, be my guest.

 

[CF74]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

This....

 

[Redball Express]

They cut him instead of IR so he can come back during the season.

That's pretty sneaky if you ask me.

 

[Risen Star]

It's not a defense of the team. It was an attempt to quantify an honest question. You're trying to make a point that doesn't exist for a reason that escapes my speculation. If it makes you feel more comfortable to think his odds of 'playing productive safety' in the NFL are less than 'something less than 1-in-3,' by all means, be my guest.

I'm saying you can't say, well there's been a 1 in 3 chance of a player drafted in the 4th round sticking around for another contract , so that was Matt Johnson's odds.

You can't judge Matt Johnson on the average 4th round pick because he was a gigantic reach in that draft. He's not the typical 4th round talent.

Quincy Carter was a 2nd round pick. So was Matt Light. They didn't enter the league with the same odds for success.

 

[Idgit]

I'm saying you can't say, well there's been a 1 in 3 chance of a player drafted in the 4th round sticking around for another contract , so that was Matt Johnson's odds.

You can't judge Matt Johnson on the average 4th round pick because he was a gigantic reach in that draft. He's not the typical 4th round talent.

Quincy Carter was a 2nd round pick. So was Matt Light. They didn't enter the league with the same odds for success.

Ok. You can say that. We don't have to agree on his ability. I actually discounted those ball park odds for his injury concerns, but you're free to discount them some more for injury + your opinion of his ability concerns. Let's say 'adjust that downward, *a lot,* for his ability and injury history' instead of my 'adjust that downward for a guy who's been camped out on IR most of that whole time.'

 

[CCBoy]

I don't feel sorry for a man, heart in it or not, who was given a contract for three seasons and didn't walk onto the field for two consecutive games...while being paid.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

How will the Cowboys ever survive this? He was our last best hope.

 

[ConstantReboot]

I will say this: he was a 4th round pick. While his career here was frustrating, 4th rounders rarely stick around for a long time and it's even more rare that they become big-time players.

He'll come back and be placed on IR anyway.

Why not? Maybe Seattle didn't get the memo that 4th rounders and lower don't stick around. Maybe that's their secret to winning...

 

[Manwiththeplan]

This is not the end.

death is only the beginning