The Phantom Salary Cap Menace

[waldoputty]

And what are you doing in the next 5 years outside of just those "3 top FA." Are you not still signing free agents during your 5 year window when you're going for the superbowl? Are you not retaining Zeke? Are you not keeping Dak who you hope is a top 10 QB by that point? It's now time to sign your draft picks from the last 3 years. Players you picked who probably helped you win that coveted super bowl. None of them have gotten contracts over this magical 5 year window?

How do you tank with a top 10 QB btw? Who is going to win you at least 7 to 8 games. I don't even know why I'm responding to this absurd fantasy. Where you can just have one big free agent spending year. Bring in 3 guys. Win it all a few times. Give out no other big contracts over 5 years. Cut everyone. Get the number 1 pick. And then go on to win the superbowl again a few times in the next 5 years.

Why did I respond to this nonsense?

Prescott, Martin and La'el would be your own major extensions.
Prescott can be paid by Romo retirement/trade/etc.

if we get 3 top FA, where are the holes in the team?
The draft can then easily fill in attrition and perhaps even get a couple gems though no one can count on another 2016.

the only reason i am saying this is because the foundation is already built.
in the $30M cap space, you can sign 3 top FA (say RDE and DT), RT to replace Free, WR2, SS (say Wilcox) and then extend Martin after season starts (simple cap trick to leverage 2018 cap space).
you would have the entire offense signed through 2019 except Witten (Swaim, Rico are replacements).
on D, you would have locked up for 3-4 years:
DT: top FA, Collins, Thornton
DE: top FA, Irving, Mayowa (may only be 2 years but can be readily be replaced high draft pick), may be Tapper
LB: Jaylon, Lee, Wilson
CB: top FA, Brown,
S: Jone, church or wilcox

I did not say no salary or no FA.
if you have no pass rush, no wr1, possibly no dominant RB, i dont think you top 10 qB would be doing too well.
that team can easily draft in the top 10.
You dont need a #1 pick to get a WR1 or RB.
Top 10 pick would probably be adequate.

 

[waldoputty]

Good stuff

The only point I'd like to expound on is that tanking the salary cap is not even necessary, let alone practical.....it only takes one season to reset the cap .....contracts have grow so much they can be dumped or traded to create a ton of space

I bet a lot more teams struggle with the 90% cash floor than the ceiling

tanking for 1 year can get you the 1 premium draft pick for 1 major need.

if the cap keeps growing out of control, then we can simply buy FAs and restructure .

 

[waldoputty]

Wait wait wait. Hold the phone.

This is a serious question. Do you believe Jerry Jones' public acknowledgment that the defense needs a (nonspecific) dominate pass rusher was dictated by public opinion pressure and not because of his own perceptions of defensive need?

not dictated.
Jerry feels pressure in achieving like most successful people do.
if you think the press calling them 'dogging it' would not bother him,...
Jerry is not the problem - it is Stephen here.
frugal savings is great when building the foundation, now we are talking about getting over the top and doing whatever it takes to get there.

 

[Nightman]

From 1995 to now, the idea of the salary cap has been pounded into us.
We had to break up the 90's dynasty because of the cap.
We got roasted by the league for 'manipulating' the cap.
On and on...
Well that was all true.

That is no longer true in the current environment.
For 2017, we could easily open up $30M by restructuring 5 contracts without even doing something with Romo. $50M or more can be opened up if desired.
For 2018, we are $60M under the cap currently. If Romo is gone, ~$90M under the cap.

Why? Mostly because the salary cap has been going through an unprecedented annual increase of $10M
And it will keep doing this for 4 more years at the minimum.

So WHY are we stuck in feeling helpless because of the salary cap.
Because it has been droned into us for 20 years.
Also the FO wants to manage expectations if they cannot get big time players.

We are not helping ourselves making excuses for the FO
The FO probably monitors fan reactions - and CZ is one easy place for them.
More pressure should be put on for the best possible product/team.

What can we afford?
Easily 3 top FAs this year plus a WR2 at least as good as TWill, choice of Church/Wilcox, extension for Martin after the season starts.
If we get 2 top FA DL and a top FA CB, we should become prohibitive favorites next year especially if Jaylon is 90+% of what he used to be.

Will the cap blow up if we spend like this
Not for many years because of the cap rise.
That is because we are currently $60M or so below the cap in 2018 so much less restructuring needed.

What happens if we blow up the Cap in 2022 by spending much more now?
That is a good thing to tank 1-2 years at that point.
5-6 years from now, we will need better draft picks to nail down Elliott's replacement or a WR1 or a passrushing edge or a shutdown corner.
For all we know, NFL may outlaw tackling by then due to brain damage concerns...

But the Patriots are Frugal so they never blow up the team
Think about how many more superbowls Brady would have won if the Pats tanked 1 year every 5 years to reload on 1 key high #1 pick (WR1, RB, dominant DL/OLB or shutdown corner)

Good points........ the only quibble is that there are less and less quality players hitting UFA

DAL should spend more to fill holes and keep depth but they should do it wisely

I want to add a stud SDE right now....I want Mo Claiborne and another level 2 CB ....I want a SS

I want a WR2..... but I also love our drafts lately and want to keep ZMartin and LCollins and DLawrence

The only real UFAs I still rue are NSuh, JNorman, GHardy, EWeddle, (I wanted JByrd too and Ashougma.....ooops)

 

[waldoputty]

This team is doing it the right way (finally). When has spending big in FA ever led to a championship? A piece here or there can help, but you need to be smart about it. Most teams are spending bigger money to keep the guys they develop, so the players that hit FA are - with very few exceptions - players not worth top dollar.

if you have 50 million spend, why worry about worth top dollar when the point is the big picture - winning the lombardi.

now if the FAs suck, then you are stuck.
but melvin ingram and JPP do not suck.
neither do chandler jones, eric berry, nick perry, trumaine johnson, nick fairley, kwann short, poe, bouye, ...
some will get franchised
but some will be available.

 

[waldoputty]

Good points........ the only quibble is that there are less and less quality players hitting UFA

DAL should spend more to fill holes and keep depth but they should do it wisely

I want to add a stud SDE right now....I want Mo Claiborne and another level 2 CB ....I want a SS

I want a WR2..... but I also love our drafts lately and want to keep ZMartin and LCollins and DLawrence

The only real UFAs I still rue are NSuh, JNorman, GHardy, EWeddle, (I wanted JByrd too and Ashougma.....ooops)

2 X TCrawford = Suh
am i correct?
the Giants FA remodel last year would work fine for me.

I think DLaw is essentially done with his back.
Mo is unreliable due to injury risk.
Spend more and get a CB1 that is less injury prone.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

if you have 50 million spend, why worry about worth top dollar when the point is the big picture - winning the lombardi.

now if the FAs suck, then you are stuck.
but melvin ingram and JPP do not suck.
neither do chandler jones, eric berry, nick perry, trumaine johnson, nick fairley, kwann short, poe, bouye, ...
some will get franchised
but some will be available.

I don't think any of those guys suck, but I'd bet only Berry, Ingram, Short and Jones are worth giving big money to. And I would be surprised if any of those four are available after franchise tags and re-signs wash out.

 

[waldoputty]

I don't think any of those guys suck, but I'd bet only Berry, Ingram, Short and Jones are worth giving big money to. And I would be surprised if any of those four are available after franchise tags and re-signs wash out.

If no decent FAs are available, then obviously we are stuck.
The question is if multiple are available.

furthermore, the notion of 'value' changes in an environment of free flowing money.
that is why signing the OL early was such an advantage with TSmith.
TFred also basically gave the team a serious discount.

In an environment of free flowing $ (cap rise of $10m per year and larger), you get serious inflation.
sticker shock is the unavoidable consequence.
if you want to win, you have to pay the price - and it is a free market mostly anyway.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

If no decent FAs are available, then obviously we are stuck.
The question is if multiple are available.

furthermore, the notion of 'value' changes in an environment of free flowing money.
that is why signing the OL early was such an advantage with TSmith.
TFred also basically gave the team a serious discount.

In an environment of free flowing $ (cap rise of $10m per year and larger), you get serious inflation.
sticker shock is the unavoidable consequence.
if you want to win, you have to pay the price - and it is a free market mostly anyway.

Hey, I understand the notion of value and its changes, I've been fighting that battle around here since I started posting a couple months back.

The problem is all the guys you mentioned will get at or near the top of the league in value for their position in guarantees and avg annual salary (as flawed as AAS is). Other than the four I named, they really aren't worth that. I'm not even sure the four I named are worth that. Except Berry, he's a dynamic talent. Definition of War Daddy. Which is why there's no way KC lets him hit the market.

 

[waldoputty]

I don't think any of those guys suck, but I'd bet only Berry, Ingram, Short and Jones are worth giving big money to. And I would be surprised if any of those four are available after franchise tags and re-signs wash out.

furthermore, in the era of rapidly-rising cap, 'worth big dollar' is not well-defined.
you get inflation when that happens and along with that sticker shock.
the point is the big picture.
dont waste elliott's prime and dez's remaining years.
people think elliott will last forever.
you cannot count on a rb last more than 4-5 years.
1 year passed already.

 

[waldoputty]

Hey, I understand the notion of value and its changes, I've been fighting that battle around here since I started posting a couple months back.

The problem is all the guys you mentioned will get at or near the top of the league in value for their position in guarantees and avg annual salary (as flawed as AAS is). Other than the four I named, they really aren't worth that. I'm not even sure the four I named are worth that. Except Berry, he's a dynamic talent. Definition of War Daddy. Which is why there's no way KC lets him hit the market.

well we can get what we can get.
those players i named are improvements over what we got.
if you get 3 top FAs, that would allow you to go BPA in the draft and hopefully get a few more probowlers to continue the trend.
if we continue to draft that well, then the tank would not even be necessary since the replacements for the FAs and aging stars would be drafted - even better.

RBs like Elliott do not often stay dominant for more than 4-5 years.
The window is a precious thing to waste.
Rather be a candle that burns bright for a short time than a candle that never burns bright enough.

 

[Cowboys_22]

No need to tank, just need to replenish with talent.

 

[waldoputty]

No need to tank, just need to replenish with talent.

that would be even better if the draft continue to turn out 1 probowler per year.
the tank would happen naturally if the draft does not continue to be a winner.

 

[Nightman]

2 X TCrawford = Suh
am i correct?
the Giants FA remodel last year would work fine for me.

I think DLaw is essentially done with his back.
Mo is unreliable due to injury risk.
Spend more and get a CB1 that is less injury prone.

You need to stop playing doctor....it is clouding your decisions........you have an excuse for every player you want replaced but Clear Eye Views for every incoming FA

Some FAs just want money, some don't fit the system, some clash with coaches
For every 5 you sign you are lucky 2 work out.....FA is expensive by design

The NYGiants aren't the new normal...they did well with Vernon, Jenkins and Harrison but also had Collins and Apple and JPP make big improvements

 

[DallasEast]

not dictated.
Jerry feels pressure in achieving like most successful people do.
if you think the press calling them 'dogging it' would not bother him,...
Jerry is not the problem - it is Stephen here.
frugal savings is great when building the foundation, now we are talking about getting over the top and doing whatever it takes to get there.

Curious. So you would agree that Jones wasn't influenced by public opinion while making that statement--just as he hasn't for nearly three decades?

Similarly, Jones has been the object of media scrutiny for the same length of time. How is his latest in a long list of Arkansas raised colorful metaphors used in your example a sign differentiating a 'need' to public acknowledge pressure felt by him from the media? In you opinion, have you identified an indicator marking each time Jones has been pressured by the media to make specific roster acquisitions? If true, it would confirm many occasions when Jones has been pressured through the years. Perhaps the wrong people are pressuring him..?

 

[waldoputty]

Curious. So you would agree that Jones wasn't influenced by public opinion while making that statement--just as he hasn't for nearly three decades?

Similarly, Jones has been the object of media scrutiny for the same length of time. How is his latest in a long list of Arkansas raised colorful metaphors used in your example a sign differentiating a 'need' to public acknowledge pressure felt by him from the media? In you opinion, have you identified an indicator marking each time Jones has been pressured by the media to make specific roster acquisitions? If true, it would confirm many occasions when Jones has been pressured through the years. Perhaps the wrong people are pressuring him..?

How many times has Jones made declarations about Jaylon Smith pick?
Do you not think he feels pressure?

Jerry Jones feels pressure to succeed for many reasons, my guess is the most is that he wants to win himself.
People dont become billionaires if they are not that driven.
When he made the statement about war daddy, it is a combination of everything.
My guess is the most is that he wants to win himself.
Though obviously none of us can read his mind so no one can be sure what was more important.
My point is PR is very important to the organization.
Whether it is for $ or personal satisfaction, they dont want to be known as "not trying hard enough" or "dogging it"

Stephen has been the voice of reason that helped build the foundation.
That is great.
The problem is a different approach is needed to get over the top.
I am sure Stephen knows that.
In many organizations, the person who built the foundation is not the person that takes the organization to the next stage...

Nobody knows what the organization will do.
They may go sign a RDE and a better CB1 than Mo.
In which case I would be reasonably happy, though I would want one more top DL.
Or they may not.

 

[DallasEast]

How many times has Jones made declarations about Jaylon Smith pick?
Do you not think he feels pressure?

You mean the pressure to run off at the mouth at any and every given opportunity someone sticks a microphone in his face? Well yeah. He's felt more pressure over the past three decades than turkeys have experienced before Thanksgiving.

Jones has made umpteen declarations about Smith playing for his team. Why do you feel those declarations are any different from the umpteen declarations he's made about other past and present players, coaches or even himself since he bought the team? How long have you observed Jones' hype machinations?

 

[waldoputty]

You mean the pressure to run off at the mouth at any and every given opportunity someone sticks a microphone in his face? Well yeah. He's felt more pressure over the past three decades than turkeys have experienced before Thanksgiving.

Jones has made umpteen declarations about Smith playing for his team. Why do you feel those declarations are any different from the umpteen declarations he's made about other past and present players, coaches or even himself since he bought the team? How long have you observed Jones' hype machinations?

I have been a fan since Roger threw the pass to Pearson against the Vikings in the NFC championship game.

Jerry, just like another other super successful guy, wants to be smart and not look stupid.
Jaylon was a big gamble, and I am sure part of him was hoping for a return for the 2016 season, which did not happen.
You dont think he felt pressure being pounded on by tons of sports writers calling him a fool?
If Jaylon plays well in 2017, you dont think Jerry has his press blitz all planned out in his mind?
Something like ... Jerry Jone bucked NFL conventional wisdom and swung for the fences and got his HOF LB in the 2nd round when everyone else were too scared to do so.

He may act inspite of the pressure by being stubborn and having strong force of character, but how could anyone not feel pressure by it?
If he was not stubborn and have strong force of character, he probably would not be a billionaire in the first place.

 

[DallasEast]

You dont think he felt pressure being pounded on by tons of sports writers calling him a fool?

You profess being a fan since Staubach. I don't question that but you don't seem to know much about Jones.

Like most successful individuals, Jones is driven by fear of failure. That's his source of pressure. On the other hand, Jones' personality relishes fan and media scrutiny way more than the norm associated with his business demographic.

If Jaylon plays well in 2017, you dont think Jerry has his press blitz all planned out in his mind?

I may be wrong but I get the feeling that you may think no one else who is aware of Smith's situation has predicted the exact same thing. Jones didn't pop up out of nowhere yesterday. Jones' hype machine is well-known and well-practiced. Your question doesn't reflect an original conceivable conception.

He may act inspite of the pressure by being stubborn and having strong force of character, but how could anyone not feel pressure by it?
If he was not stubborn and have strong force of character, he probably would not be a billionaire in the first place.

You're stuck on the pressure assumption. However, we've traveled thousands of miles away from the originating source of this conversation, namely, Jones making roster decisions specifically according to outside pressure (see what I did there?) Maybe we can get back to that..?

 

[waldoputty]

You profess being a fan since Staubach. I don't question that but you don't seem to know much about Jones.

Like most successful individuals, Jones is driven by fear of failure. That's his source of pressure. On the other hand, Jones' personality relishes fan and media scrutiny way more than the norm associated with his business demographic.
I may be wrong but I get the feeling that you may think no one else who is aware of Smith's situation has predicted the exact same thing. Jones didn't pop up out of nowhere yesterday. Jones' hype machine is well-known and well-practiced. Your question doesn't reflect an original conceivable conception.
You're stuck on the pressure assumption. However, we've traveled thousands of miles away from the originating source of this conversation, namely, Jones making roster decisions specifically according to outside pressure (see what I did there?) Maybe we can get back to that..?

I remember Jones firing Landry, the Walker trade, Jimmy leaving, the galloway trade, Romo dropping the ball ...

It is not whether others predicted the same thing. It is Jerry getting the credit (or fail) for it. He wants to bask in the glory of making that gutsy call (when others did the homework that allowed the gutsy call)...

The point I made with Jaylon is that it reflects how PR can affect Jerry and then hopefully the FO. He felt compelled to make various declarations about Jaylon etc. due to his perceived pressure.

Pressure is the only thing fans have. If fans can influence sports writers, then the effect on the FO would be substantially magnified.

Why does it make a difference - a lot of blog/sports writers do not understand the cap issues and still are stuck in the old cap world. That old cap world is no longer true at least for the next 4-5 years.