CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[MyFairLady]

If you draft RB in the first round you are saying to the world I have the perfect football team and this is the icing on the cake. The thing is though you you probably don't. You may sell more jerseys than if you draft O line or DT but you will probably end up wishing you did.

 

[RonWashington]

I wouldn’t mind a young OT on the right side with Tyler Smith on the left . Book ends road graders pass protectors .

 

[kskboys]

Yea, he’s the perfect example.

Chiefs put more emphasis on OL construction instead of throwing early picks / money at TB and he looks like a star.

Chiefs also changed their O. They now have Mahomes throwing a ton of short passes. Chiefs lost to TB specifically due to an O based on the longer passing game. TB took that away, and Mahomes had no answer.

Mahomes, IMO, has now taken the next step. When they asked him at the time about changing what he does a bit, he declared that he would not. However, now he has.

 

[kskboys]

If you draft RB in the first round you are saying to the world I have the perfect football team and this is the icing on the cake. The thing is though you you probably don't. You may sell more jerseys than if you draft O line or DT but you will probably end up wishing you did.

That all depends on what you already have at OL or DT. If you're stacked there already, it would be foolish, especially if they didn't even make the team.

 

[RonWashington]

If a nugget can be picked up from these two high octane SB offenses when it comes to Dallas can MM install more movement in the pocket for # 4, Stationary drop back seems flawed with him . He’s dangerous on the move .

 

[quickccc]

Absolutely. End of 1st round and 2nd is where you take RBs.

Point: Super bowl teams often take RBs in the first two rounds. Bellychickens did it often. Rams did it w/ Gurley, and when he didn't work out took one in the 2nd round.

I agree you shouldn't take RBs w/ a high first. However, taking them late first/second is often a good pick. Eagles used a 2nd round.

Gurley actually did work out as he was an All pro, pro bowler in several seasons - before that chronic knee eventually began to give out ..
He wasn't a first round bust, he produced, and was one of the better RBs in NFL at one point . Medical issues eventually did him in.
He wasn't a Sony Michel or Rashard Penny .... .

 

[cnuball21]

Chiefs also changed their O. They now have Mahomes throwing a ton of short passes. Chiefs lost to TB specifically due to an O based on the longer passing game. TB took that away, and Mahomes had no answer.

Mahomes, IMO, has now taken the next step. When they asked him at the time about changing what he does a bit, he declared that he would not. However, now he has.

Yea, but they also rebuilt their OL right after that L. They went from being mediocre to having the best pass protection win rate in football this year.

And yes, Mahomes has matured as a passer for sure.

Sure as heck wish our team would pump resources into building up the O like the Chiefs have.

 

[RonWashington]

Can Philadelphia get a refund they paid Vic Fangio for pre SB consulting on how to stop Mahomes . 38 points ouch . On top of the 40 we hung on Philly during season . Hmmm . Plus the commanders went into the 30’s on Siriani D .

Nakobe Dean Jordan Davis non factors most of the season . Don’t feel so bad about Sam Wiilams in retrospect .

 

[G2]

Dallas' pick is literally 5 picks from being a 2nd round pick. At 26 it would be smart to draft a rb there, imo Robinson and Gibbs would be BPA

Still a 1st round pick which carries significant differences from the 2nd round.

 

[G2]

Yea, but they also rebuilt their OL right after that L. They went from being mediocre to having the best pass protection win rate in football this year.

And yes, Mahomes has matured as a passer for sure.

Sure as heck wish our team would pump resources into building up the O like the Chiefs have.

I agree. We would be better served to stock up the trenches instead of a RB.

 

[quickccc]

Pacheco ran hard ran effectively in a SB ….7th round Rutgers . Hello Jerry . No need to franchise # 20 .

While Pacheo ran hard, .. if it was Pollard, a few of those hard dirty runs would have fifth gear, instant homerun TD six points..

it's a big different between blue collar overachiever and feared speed.

BTW, i think the Chiefs blew it with selecting Clyde Edwards in the 1st rd. Since entering the NFL, i haven't see anything superficial about Edwards' skills that
opposing teams need to fear about him or why they needed to draft him that very early.
Imo, I think he is gonna eventually be a journeyman backup at some point.

 

[G2]

Chiefs also changed their O. They now have Mahomes throwing a ton of short passes. Chiefs lost to TB specifically due to an O based on the longer passing game. TB took that away, and Mahomes had no answer.

Mahomes, IMO, has now taken the next step. When they asked him at the time about changing what he does a bit, he declared that he would not. However, now he has.

I'm not seeing this. He passed for more yards than he has in his career and his yards percentage downfield ranking in essentially the same as every year. Might have something to do with not scoring as many TDs deep, but I don't know. He seemed more patient this year as well.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

It really depends on how the draft falls. I didn't want a wide receiver in 2020 but if the option was between Chaisson and Lamb.....yeah give me Lamb. We can't be afraid of drafting a position because we don't like what's available. I'd rather take a RB than reach for a player.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Pacheco ran hard ran effectively in a SB ….7th round Rutgers . Hello Jerry . No need to franchise # 20 .

Pacheco looks good but he can't sniff Pollard. Not yet anyway.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Yea, he’s the perfect example.

Chiefs put more emphasis on OL construction instead of throwing early picks / money at TB and he looks like a star.

That's because they just threw a 1st rounder at CEH and when they did it everyone praised them for it and were talking about how "scary" they'd be.

 

[eromeopolk]

Similarities to Pollard. Problem is he wont get to no.58.

Did those idiots lose a 1st round pick? If the Jonesboys still have pick no. 27, they better draft Gibbs at RB, then DT, DT, OL, OL, WR, CB, DB, and LB in that order.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I like the value at 26 if he is BPA.

I think the days of top 10 rbs is over.....never makes sense.

NO reason to waste a top pick on a RB when you can get great ones in rounds 2-4. This year is also a great year for FA RB's and you can get them cheap. Pay the line, not the back.

 

[Ken]

NO reason to waste a top pick on a RB when you can get great ones in rounds 2-4. This year is also a great year for FA RB's and you can get them cheap. Pay the line, not the back.

I saw a draft guru say the other day that there are rb starters in all days of this class. I am fine with taking 1 or 2 in round 2-6

 

[CowboyRoy]

I saw a draft guru say the other day that there are rb starters in all days of this class. I am fine with taking 1 or 2 in round 2-6

Pluck a quality guy from the FA pile for cheap and draft another guy in rounds 2-4. Problem solved. Get rid of Zeke, Tyron and either trade or let Pollard get paid somewhere else. Use ALL that newfound money to make your Oline the best in the league. The run game will be better than last year. The key is the line.

 

[btcutter]

I will pop my cork if we draft a running back in the top 4 rounds

I would be upset if we don't pick up a RB in the 1st 4 rounds and try to bottom fish.