CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[Flamma]

Our only hope is for the FO leadership either learning something from their mistakes or listening to some great advice on how to build a championship roster.

Because if we’re being totally honest, the Jones boys don’t know what they’re doing. And they are accountable to no one. Jerry made a good move in hiring McClay. But they need someone else in their ear giving them clear eyed advice about what their needs really are and how to get the kind of players to take us to the next level.

Hate to say it, but as good as it’s been to make the playoffs two years in a row, I don’t see this team as being “close” without some major moves this off-season.

Right. That's the biggest problem right now. We've seen how bad Jerry was when taking risks during the salary cap era of his ownership. Only when Parcells came in did it recover. They're not good at it. They need someone that know better how to do this. Because risk taking Jerry is probably worse than what they're doing now.

 

[kskboys]

All 5 of the Cowboys Super Bowl teams had a 1st round running back.

KC took a RB in the 1st.

 

[kskboys]

Really ? ... so does this mean Edgerrin James is a Hall of Fame imposter ?

James was voted into HOF in 2017 i believe ...

AP will be a HOFer.

 

[G2]

- my question is for some reason some keep calling him a " generational " back .. although he does not have top elite killer speed
i haven't seen the homerun fifth gear i've seen from saquon barkley....chris johnson .. 2016 Zeke Elliott .. or even Tony Pollard

- i'll give him the elite elusiveness, vision, tackle breaking power but i'm not convince this is that type that has breathe-taking, 60 yard sprinter - ala Tony Pollard
those are the backs that flat out keep you pins and needles -

- yes, Robinson has fascinatiing " stop and re-start " cut back run skills -thus the Broaddus comparisons to Barry Sanders .
..but i don't see him near as flat quick stop/re-start sheer elusive as Sanders- and he does not have Sanders home run fifth gear .

- But i think Robinson is bigger and powerful and even more elusive than Travis Etienne Jr.... and he is far more elusive and creative than Steelers' Najee Harris
Two RBs previously selected in the first round .

Yeah, I pretty much agree w/ all of what you said. Generational seems a touch eager an idea in my opinion. I take pause for a few other reasons in addition to your points.
One of the "pros" I've heard was his threat in the passing game, but he wasn't in the top 10 in yards/TDs. I would guess that would be better to be crowned.
He's talented and very quick & shifty, though I wonder how that translates to the NFL and the jump up in speed, strength and skillset.
He's just outside the top 5 in yards. While not an enormous deal, but I'd like a guy who's generational to be substantially better than the rest. Elite. Best of the best.
Tied for 5th in TDs with 2 others. Not remarkable but not too concerned.

Now he could be the next long career RB, I'm just turned off by the idea of drafting a RB, any RB in the first couple of rounds. I maintain the idea that IF we were simply a RB away, sure but we haven't even dealt with our aging RB under contract.

 

[TheCoolFan]

Since 2010, only 3 SB winning teams had a 1,000 yard RB that season:

2012 Ravens - Ray Rice
2013 Seahawks - Marshawn Lynch
2016 Patriots: LeGarrette Blount

And for 1st round RBs, I believe only Ray Rice and Sony Michel (2018 Patriots) were starters on their SB teams that drafted them.

Obviously if you have an elite QB like Mahomes or Brady, you can build around them and the RB doesn't matter. But even for Stafford and Foles, when they won SBs, it was more important for them to have weapons in the passing game + great players on defense

 

[quickccc]

KC took a RB in the 1st.

Clyde Edwards will be their Jalen Reagor version ... but so long as you're winning SBs, that won't come back to bite them

 

[Bobhaze]

Really ? ... so does this mean Edgerrin James is a Hall of Fame imposter ?

James was voted into HOF in 2017 i believe ...

Actually Edgerrin James isn’t yet in the HOF. Maybe he will at some point. I was saying earlier that the last HOF RB to be drafted in the first round as of today is Marshall Faulk, drafted in first round in ‘94. As @kskboys has pointed out, Adrian Peterson will be in the HOF and he was a first rounder.

Just to clarify, I believe in a great running game. Both the eagles and chiefs had an outstanding running game. I’m just saying I think it’s a mistake to draft a RB early in round 1 with all the needs this team has.

KC took a RB in the 1st.

Yeah but it was in 2020 at the end of round 1- I think the 30th pick. Clyde Edward-Solarire. He didn’t play in SB due to injuries and was supplanted this year by 7th round RB Isiah Pacheco who was a star in the playoffs.

 

[rambo2]

Actually Edgerrin James isn’t yet in the HOF. Maybe he will at some point. I was saying earlier that the last HOF RB to be drafted in the first round as of today is Marshall Faulk, drafted in first round in ‘94. As @kskboys has pointed out, Adrian Peterson will be in the HOF and he was a first rounder.

Just to clarify, I believe in a great running game. Both the eagles and chiefs had an outstanding running game. I’m just saying I think it’s a mistake to draft a RB early in round 1 with all the needs this team has.

To me there is a difference between a top 10 pick and a late first round pick like 26.

 

[G2]

I'm intrigued by Zach Charbonnet. Not enough to take early unless we were only a RB away.

 

[quickccc]

Actually Edgerrin James isn’t yet in the HOF. Maybe he will at some point. I was saying earlier that the last HOF RB to be drafted in the first round as of today is Marshall Faulk, drafted in first round in ‘94. As @kskboys has pointed out, Adrian Peterson will be in the HOF and he was a first rounder.

Just to clarify, I believe in a great running game. Both the eagles and chiefs had an outstanding running game. I’m just saying I think it’s a mistake to draft a RB early in round 1 with all the needs this team has.


Yeah but it was in 2020 at the end of round 1- I think the 30th pick. Clyde Edward-Solarire. He didn’t play in SB due to injuries and was supplanted this year by 7th round RB Isiah Pacheco who was a star in the playoffs.

Edgrin James Hall of Fame Speech

 

[DuncanIso]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

Not seeing a lot of scrub RBs leading anything.

 

[quickccc]

Edgrin James Hall of Fame Speech

James is in the HOF, i believe the 2020 class. .. but as to your question was " when was the last time a RB selected in the first round, won a SB ? " ..
it was Marshall Faulk , i stand corrected.

While James was drafted by the Colts, .. he never participated in SB games

Colts under Peyton Manning, only won one SB,.. and i've just read where Joseph Addai was the starting RB in two SBs vs Bears, and vs Saints ..not ACL injured James.

 

[Pass2Run]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

I agree.

I've been saying this since the Terrel Davis days.

It"s about your oline. I'd rather pick up a road grating offensive lineman, for run-blocking.

 

[Pass2Run]

If you target a guy like Abinikanda later on, he's only 20 years old....

 

[RonWashington]

Pacheco ran hard ran effectively in a SB ….7th round Rutgers . Hello Jerry . No need to franchise # 20 .

 

[Smith22]

How many QBs get drafted in the 1st round and don't pan out, or worse, drafted top 5 and make a mess of your salary cap.

I have no issues taking a RB in the 20s if you have them evaluated highly.

 

[Bobhaze]

James is in the HOF, i believe the 2020 class. .. but as to your question was " when was the last time a RB selected in the first round, won a SB ? " ..
it was Marshall Faulk , i stand corrected.

While James was drafted by the Colts, .. he never participated in SB games

Colts under Peyton Manning, only won one SB,.. and i've just read where Joseph Addai was the starting RB in two SBs vs Bears, and vs Saints ..not ACL injured James.

You are correct quick- I stand corrected. Edgerrin James was inducted into the HOF in 2020. My mistake.

 

[kskboys]

Clyde Edwards will be their Jalen Reagor version ... but so long as you're winning SBs, that won't come back to bite them

Actually Edgerrin James isn’t yet in the HOF. Maybe he will at some point. I was saying earlier that the last HOF RB to be drafted in the first round as of today is Marshall Faulk, drafted in first round in ‘94. As @kskboys has pointed out, Adrian Peterson will be in the HOF and he was a first rounder.

Just to clarify, I believe in a great running game. Both the eagles and chiefs had an outstanding running game. I’m just saying I think it’s a mistake to draft a RB early in round 1 with all the needs this team has.


Yeah but it was in 2020 at the end of round 1- I think the 30th pick. Clyde Edward-Solarire. He didn’t play in SB due to injuries and was supplanted this year by 7th round RB Isiah Pacheco who was a star in the playoffs.

Absolutely. End of 1st round and 2nd is where you take RBs.

Point: Super bowl teams often take RBs in the first two rounds. Bellychickens did it often. Rams did it w/ Gurley, and when he didn't work out took one in the 2nd round.

I agree you shouldn't take RBs w/ a high first. However, taking them late first/second is often a good pick. Eagles used a 2nd round.

 

[cnuball21]

Pacheco ran hard ran effectively in a SB ….7th round Rutgers . Hello Jerry . No need to franchise # 20 .

Yea, he’s the perfect example.

Chiefs put more emphasis on OL construction instead of throwing early picks / money at TB and he looks like a star.

 

[noshame]

I will pop my cork if we draft a running back in the top 4 rounds