The risk of high defensive draft picks

[Idgit]

I reject the notion that defenders take longer to have an impact. It entirely depends on the position and the scheme fit.

I also think you're undervaluing several of those players. Anthony Barr, for example, has had a big impact in MIN and is just at the point where he's hitting his stride. Mack and Donald are absolute game changers. There's a lot of defensive talent there on that list.

And, yes, I'd trade Elliott for an equivalent pick at any level of the defense. In a heartbeat. I'd have taken my RB in the 3rd and never thought any more about it.

 

[JoeKing]

Watch Zeke break his toe on his first carry from scrimmage and there goes our season...actually it wouldn't be because DMC and Morris are capable of carrying the load sans Zeke. Which will be the nail in the coffin for the argument that Zeke's 4th overall draft pick was a valued need filled.

 

[DCBoysfan]

It's a great start, but how much does a pro bowl corner change a defense? Not much. He can only cover one of the five receivers anyway, and you can completely take him out of the game by not going his way.

Marcus Peters is an example of an rookie defensive player making a tremendous impact on a team that made the playoffs last year. Both rookie RB drafted last year was home watching the playoffs, but the Cardinals drafted a RB later in the draft and became the lead back for a team that was in the playoffs. I was on the draft Ramsey train, but will root for Zeke because he is a Cowboy, but to make the argument not to draft a rookie defensive player because they do not make immediate impact is flawed.

 

[Jenky]

I reject the notion that defenders take longer to have an impact. It entirely depends on the position and the scheme fit.

I also think you're undervaluing several of those players. Anthony Barr, for example, has had a big impact in MIN and is just at the point where he's hitting his stride. Mack and Donald are absolute game changers. There's a lot of defensive talent there on that list.

And, yes, I'd trade Elliott for an equivalent pick at any level of the defense. In a heartbeat. I'd have taken my RB in the 3rd and never thought any more about it.

Generally speaking though, even elite guys like Watt and Mack took 1 year to fully reach their potential. Good luck finding either in this draft on the defensive side. If it's Ramsey, I'd be shocked. A DB outside of Marcus Peters just doesn't do that right away.

 

[Swanny]

I would like dallas to trade elliott for an immediate top 3 rb.

I did not like the pick of Zeke at 4. But now that we do have him there is only 1 RB I would trade him for and that is Gurley.

 

[Sydla]

Marcus Peters is an example of an rookie defensive player making a tremendous impact on a team that made the playoffs last year. Both rookie RB drafted last year was home watching the playoffs, but the Cardinals drafted a RB later in the draft and became the lead back for a team that was in the playoffs. I was on the draft Ramsey train, but will root for Zeke because he is a Cowboy, but to make the argument not to draft a rookie defensive player because they do not make immediate impact is flawed.

And remember, the Chiefs lost their "elite" TB five games into the season and still made the playoffs.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

I don't know that I agree with the premise of the post, but I will say that I don't think there was a "can't miss" defensive prospect in this draft. I liked Ramsey's athleticism, but his lack of production in college (interceptions) and view that he might be better suited at safety than cornerback, were red flags to me about picking him at 4. Even if he is not AP, Elliot has no holes in his game. And we are never going to look back at this draft and regret we took him. As many GMs say, the first round is about limiting downside not drafting upside. You just can't miss with these picks. I am good with Elliot.

 

[Idgit]

Generally speaking though, even elite guys like Watt and Mack took 1 year to fully reach their potential. Good luck finding either in this draft on the defensive side. If it's Ramsey, I'd be shocked. A DB outside of Marcus Peters just doesn't do that right away.

It's true, rookies take time to reach their potential. That doesn't mean they can't be impact players along the way.

And both RB and LB are positions where you can see impact fairly quickly. CB, too, for that matter for a man corner with physical skills.

I'd still gladly take the rookie impact of Bosa or Ramsey over their Dallas counterparts over any incremental benefit Elliott gives us this year in the running game. Even knowing the built in advantage he's got with the OL and with having an elite passing game return to the lineup. Defense has been our Achilles the last several years, and we're not adding the talent to close the gap while we still have Romo. We're back to hoping he can pull more rabbits out of Cowboy hats for us.

 

[Idgit]

I don't know that I agree with the premise of the post, but I will say that I don't think there was a "can't miss" defensive prospect in this draft. I liked Ramsey's athleticism, but his lack of production in college (interceptions) and view that he might be better suited at safety than cornerback, were red flags to me about picking him at 4. Even if he is not AP, Elliot has no holes in his game. And we are never going to look back at this draft and regret we took him. As many GMs say, the first round is about limiting downside not drafting upside. You just can't miss with these picks. I am good with Elliot.

I do agree with this. Bosa, I think, was a complete player. But he wasn't there for us. Ramsey is probably a better S than CB, though he's going to be a good S.

I do really like Elliot's game. And his personality. I just didn't like the allocation of scarce resources.

 

[Craig]

I did not like the pick of Zeke at 4. But now that we do have him there is only 1 RB I would trade him for and that is Gurley.

I think he'll be great but he hasnt played a down yet. Hes not an immediate anything. The risk with him is the same as with the defensive players.

 

[TheCount]

If the offensive line is in place, they are.

He's Ladanian Tomlinson. Just watch.

Defensive players take time, that's just how it is. Dallas took defense in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds, so I think they're prepping for the future, don't you?

LT averaged 3.6 yards a carry his first season.

So even if he is LT, that doesn't mean he's going to go into his rookie season as good as he's ever going to be.

 

[Knotamus]

This team needs defensive help! Zeke was a wasted pick! How is this team going to win if they don't address the defense! Defense, defense, defense!

OK, let's put this to bed. DEFENSIVE DRAFT PICKS TAKE A LOOOOOONG TIME TO MAKE IMPACTS. Period. That is, if they make an impact at all, which many do not.

Drafting them now is an investment in three years from now. You know, when Romo, Witten, Dez, Lee, and half these starters will be gone or too old to be meaningful anymore. About the time the offense will have to be rebuilt with guys, that will also take 3-4 years to develop!

Let's look back at all the incredible defensive talent drafted in recent years.

Top 10 defensive picks in 2015
Dante Fowler, Jr.
Leonard Williams
Vic Beasley
Trae Waynes
Kevin Johnson
Arik Armstead
Marcus Peters
Bud Dupree
Shane Rae
Shaq Thompson

Can a get a huge "MEH"?

Top 10 defensive picks in 2014
Jadaveon Clowney
Kalil Mack
Justin Gilbert
Anthony Barr
Aaron Donald
Kyle Fuller
Ryan Shazier
CJ Mosely
Calvin Pryor
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Mack, Donald, and a bunch of dudes. (Jaylon Smith could be another Mack.)

Top 10 defensive picks in 2013
Dion Jordan
Ezekiel Ansah
Barkevious Mingo
Dee Milliner
DJ Hayden
Sheldon Richardson
Star Lotulelei
Kenny Vaccaro
Jarvis Jones
Eric Reid

Would you trade an immediate top 3 running back for any of these guys straight up?

The point remains, defensive players usually take years to make an impact, if they ever do at all. This team has a window of opportunity before it, and very few players can step in and make an immediate impact while the veteran stars are still here.

Win now. Always, if you can in the free-agency, injury-laden NFL.

Great post.
But you'll still have some that will ignore the facts to attempt to prove their points

 

[CowboyRoy]

This team needs defensive help! Zeke was a wasted pick! How is this team going to win if they don't address the defense! Defense, defense, defense!

OK, let's put this to bed. DEFENSIVE DRAFT PICKS TAKE A LOOOOOONG TIME TO MAKE IMPACTS. Period. That is, if they make an impact at all, which many do not.

Drafting them now is an investment in three years from now. You know, when Romo, Witten, Dez, Lee, and half these starters will be gone or too old to be meaningful anymore. About the time the offense will have to be rebuilt with guys, that will also take 3-4 years to develop!

Let's look back at all the incredible defensive talent drafted in recent years.

Top 10 defensive picks in 2015
Dante Fowler, Jr.
Leonard Williams
Vic Beasley
Trae Waynes
Kevin Johnson
Arik Armstead
Marcus Peters
Bud Dupree
Shane Rae
Shaq Thompson

Can a get a huge "MEH"?

Top 10 defensive picks in 2014
Jadaveon Clowney
Kalil Mack
Justin Gilbert
Anthony Barr
Aaron Donald
Kyle Fuller
Ryan Shazier
CJ Mosely
Calvin Pryor
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Mack, Donald, and a bunch of dudes. (Jaylon Smith could be another Mack.)

Top 10 defensive picks in 2013
Dion Jordan
Ezekiel Ansah
Barkevious Mingo
Dee Milliner
DJ Hayden
Sheldon Richardson
Star Lotulelei
Kenny Vaccaro
Jarvis Jones
Eric Reid

Would you trade an immediate top 3 running back for any of these guys straight up?

The point remains, defensive players usually take years to make an impact, if they ever do at all. This team has a window of opportunity before it, and very few players can step in and make an immediate impact while the veteran stars are still here.

Win now. Always, if you can in the free-agency, injury-laden NFL.

Who cares if they take longer? What is your point? This is the dumbest angle ever. Since when did winning a few more games immediately become a priority? Its about winning championships. In case you didnt notice teams were picking defensive players in the first round and EVERY round.

Win NOW?? Win what now? So you can wave your pom poms more on Sunday we should suffer championships and long term success?

Fans like you sicken me.

 

[AzorAhai]

And the Chiefs are.........still the Chiefs.

Peters is a very nice player, and yet, he affects their record minimally at best. I'd love to have him here, but I'd like a superstar RB a million times more.

Because that is what football is.

But that top 5 RB the Chiefs have had for years... Boy does he really carry them to victory.

 

[coult44]

All of you guys either arguing that a window is opening or closing soley on Romo need to rethink your evaluation. Tony is 3-4 years passed his prime. Other than JW, who else is? Why are you so bent on winning this year or having to completely rebuild. We've been rebuilding for 20 years. Romo really hasn't made a difference one way or another when it comes right down to it.

The way I see it with this OL, Zeke and Dez could be the cornerstones of this team for the next 5-7 years. Just find a smart and athletic bus driver, and let them do the rest. A balanced offense always makes the defense better.

 

[Kevinicus]

And the Chiefs are.........still the Chiefs.

Peters is a very nice player, and yet, he affects their record minimally at best. I'd love to have him here, but I'd like a superstar RB a million times more.

Because that is what football is.

The Chiefs are basically the anti-example to your argument. Both with defense and RB.

Peters made a huge impact for them as a rookie. And the team went from 1-4 with their star rb to 11-5 and a 30-0 playoff win after he got hurt. Peters was a huge part of their 11 consecutive wins.

 

[CowboyRoy]

The pick is contingent that Elliott is. He will be. I'm 90 percent sure of it.

Watch Zeke break his toe on his first carry from scrimmage and there goes our season...actually it wouldn't be because DMC and Morris are capable of carrying the load sans Zeke. Which will be the nail in the coffin for the argument that Zeke's 4th overall draft pick was a valued need filled.

As long as Romo stays healthy, the running game would still be top 10 with Morris leading the way. And had we gone out and signed a guy like Miller or one the other good veteran backs, we could easily have been top 5. Or taken Henry in the 2nd round ect....ect...

The ONLY reason we can say that Zeke will go nuts here is because we have a great Oline. If our Oline was average to bad, the impact of Zeke might be minimal.

 

[Swanny]

I think he'll be great but he hasnt played a down yet. Hes not an immediate anything. The risk with him is the same as with the defensive players.

I agree with you 100% but I still wouldn't trade him for any RB but Gurley. None of the other backs in this league are worth squat. AP is worth a lot but I would not trade Zeke for AP based solely on age. Lacy.. No, David Johnson NO, Matthews NO, Charles NO, Miller NO, I wouldn't even do it for Leveon Bell strictly because of his drug issues there is a possibility he could miss more time. If Bell was never suspended then yeah I would make that trade in a heart beat.
He is not an immediate for sure going to be great player but then again THERE ARE NO PLAYERS IN THE DRAFT THAT ARE. I was against draft Zeke at 4. Now I gotta live with it. I am just tankful that he pplays a position that is easy for rookies to make an immediate impact. The RB position is the easiest position to fill with rookies.

 

[CowboyRoy]

But that top 5 RB the Chiefs have had for years... Boy does he really carry them to victory.

Yep and how many more games did the Rams win last year because they drafted Gurley?

 

[CowboyRoy]

All of you guys either arguing that a window is opening or closing soley on Romo need to rethink your evaluation. Tony is 3-4 years passed his prime. Other than JW, who else is? Why are you so bent on winning this year or having to completely rebuild. We've been rebuilding for 20 years. Romo really hasn't made a difference one way or another when it comes right down to it.

The way I see it with this OL, Zeke and Dez could be the cornerstones of this team for the next 5-7 years. Just find a smart and athletic bus driver, and let them do the rest. A balanced offense always makes the defense better.

YOu are talking about the cornerstones of an offense, but not a championship team. Until this team gets a good defense they arent winning jack. 90's Cowboys would have won ZERO championships without their defense.