CFZ The Solution Is Simple

[big dog cowboy]

When Dak throws 28 or fewer passes in a game he is the best QB in the league.

Under these circumstances the Cowboys are 27-1, a winning percentage of 96.4%. Roethlisberger comes in 2nd at 93.3% and Mahomes 3rd with 91.3%.

Dak completed over 72% of his passes with a 5 to 1 TD/INT ratio for a passer rating of 115.4. In these 28 games he had thrown 47 TD's and 9 INT's.

And people wonder why Kellen Moore isn't in Dallas any more.

 

[T-RO]

People, c'mon! Put your thinking caps on. In what type of games is Dak throwing fewer passes? Think! Think!

I'll spell it out for you..it always involves one or more of these factors:
-Dallas is comfortably ahead for most or all the game, so no need to pass
-Opposing offenses are doing squat, so no need to pass
-Dallas is ripping off lots of big runs, so no need to pass

Let's look at games with 28 or fewer passes, shall we?

All such games from 2022 (2):
vs. Detroit...where the Lions only scored 6 points
vs. Bears...where Dallas averaged 6.9 yards a rush, was way ahead

All such games from 2021 (4):
vs. Chargers... Dallas averaged 6.4 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was way ahead, winning 41-21
vs. Panthers... Dallas averaged 7.2 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was again way ahead, winning 51-26

 

[T-RO]

Does anyone here think it's a good plan to run the ball 60% of the time when...

-Dallas can't successfully run?
-Dallas defense isn't playing well?
-Dallas is in a high scoring shoot out, or is well behind on the scoreboard?

The OP is practicing malpractice in how he's mis-using those stats.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Only four 2022 NFL teams passed 28 times or less per game. What a winning formula!

Bears, 22.2 passes...........3-14
Falcons, 24.4 passes.......7-10
Titans, 26.9 passes..........7-10
Panthers, 26.9 passes.....7-10

BOOM!!!

 

[America's Cowboy]

People, c'mon! Put your thinking caps on. In what type of games is Dak throwing fewer passes? Think! Think!

I'll spell it out for you..it always involves one or more of these factors:
-Dallas is comfortably ahead for most or all the game, so no need to pass
-Opposing offenses are doing squat, so no need to pass
-Dallas is ripping off lots of big runs, so no need to pass

Let's look at games with 28 or fewer passes, shall we?

All such games from 2022 (2):
vs. Detroit...where the Lions only scored 6 points
vs. Bears...where Dallas averaged 6.9 yards a rush, was way ahead

All such games from 2021 (4):
vs. Chargers... Dallas averaged 6.4 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was way ahead, winning 41-21
vs. Panthers... Dallas averaged 7.2 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was again way ahead, winning 51-26

 

[America's Cowboy]

Does anyone here think it's a good plan to run the ball 60% of the time when...

-Dallas can't successfully run?
-Dallas defense isn't playing well?
-Dallas is in a high scoring shoot out, or is well behind on the scoreboard?

The OP is practicing malpractice in how he's mis-using those stats.

 

[plasticman]

People, c'mon! Put your thinking caps on. In what type of games is Dak throwing fewer passes? Think! Think!

I'll spell it out for you..it always involves one or more of these factors:
-Dallas is comfortably ahead for most or all the game, so no need to pass
-Opposing offenses are doing squat, so no need to pass
-Dallas is ripping off lots of big runs, so no need to pass

Let's look at games with 28 or fewer passes, shall we?

All such games from 2022 (2):
vs. Detroit...where the Lions only scored 6 points
vs. Bears...where Dallas averaged 6.9 yards a rush, was way ahead

All such games from 2021 (4):
vs. Chargers... Dallas averaged 6.4 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was way ahead, winning 41-21
vs. Panthers... Dallas averaged 7.2 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was again way ahead, winning 51-26

Yes, you are absolutely right. Those were the circumstances.

However, you are looking in the wrong direction with respect to my point.

Since the Cowboys are 27-1 when Dak throws for 28 or less passes, under the conditions you perfectly described, do they always restrict their passing, under the circumstances you described?

If not.....why?

Do you remember the Jacksonville Jaguar game last season?

The Cowboys were ahead by two TD's at halftime. With three and a half minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Cowboys are still leading by ten points, a two score margin. The Cowboys are starting their drive on their own 16 yard line and on 1st and ten Dak is sacked.for an 8 tard loss.

Why? I don't mean why was he sacked. I mean why was he dropping back to pass on 1st and ten late in the game with a ten point lead?.....one of the circumstances you correctly noted as being conducive to throwing less and running more. Our data shows that had they done so, it was practically an automatic win.

However, they didn't stop there, did they? After assisting the Jaguar defense in creating more excitement for themselves and their fans, the Cowboys followed that play with another pass?

Again, why? The Cowboys have one of the league's best defenses. Punting the ball back to the Jaguar offense, who had only scored 17 points up to that point, shouldn't have caused the Cowboys coaches to get desperate. Run the ball a couple of times and punt the ball deep. Force them to earn it and, according to previous results, there is a 96% chance they won't.

Instead, they passed and the ball was intercepted and returned deep in Cowboys territory. It was the play that completely shifted momentum. Their insistence of continuing the passing game was the catalyst to defeat.

Knowing the positive outcome when they slow down the passing game, under the conditions you described, why would they ever decide to continue passing the ball instead of eating the clock, getting physical, and keeping the ball on the ground where there is less potential for a bad play?

That's the point I'm trying to make.

I'm not trying to justify the opinion that Dak is presently the greatest QB in the universe, I'm saying that they should follow the recipe and use the ingredients that statistically results in success.

Remember the Packer game last season?

The Cowboys go into the 4th quarter with a two TD lead....14 points. Twice, on 1st and ten, they pass.....against a Packer defense that is ranked high against the pass, and ranked near the bottom against the run.

Why?

Why not run the ball, take time away from Rodger's offense, gain some ground instead of nothing through an incomplete pass?

Teams that reach multiple Super Bowl titles are typically boring offensively. They run the ball consistantly and they use their defense to keep the score low and force the other team into mistakes. They don't hand the game to opponents by doing the things that result in momentum shifts.

Why in the world would you throw the ball 37 times in a playoff game in which your opponent could only score 19 points? With the score 6-6 on 2nd and 2 and in field goal range just before the half, why would you throw that ball? With a top ten rushing offense that is ranked 2nd in scoring, why would you pass 15 more times than you ran in a close, low scoring playoff game?

Is that what the 49ers did with their quarterback? No!

Is that because their running game was so dominant that day against the Cowboys? No! The 49ers averaged 3.5 yards a carry.

Before those INT's happened there was the decision to throw the ball and it was those decisions that lost football games. That's my point.

 

[T-RO]

You are quickly trying to change your tune. Here is a direct quote from your original post, bold-italics added.

In order for the Cowboys to be successful and go to the Super Bowl, they must restrict the number of passes each game.

This is pure nonsense.

Now to answer this question

Do you remember the Jacksonville Jaguar game last season?

...why was he dropping back to pass on 1st and ten late in the game with a ten point lead?

The Jags have a good offense with come-back fire power. They came back from 27 points down to defeat the Chargers in the playoffs!

Smart coaches don't go passive with modest early leads.​

Dallas defense gave up over 330 yards by the end of the third quarter.

Smart coaches don't go passive with modest early leads.​

​

By the end of 3 quarters it was just a 3-point game.

Smart coaches don't go passive with modest early leads.​

Jags ended the game with 503 yards.

Smart coaches don't go passive with modest early leads.​

 

[T-RO]

Continuing to answer the questionabout the Jags game...

Elliott averaged 2.6 yards per carry. Pollard 2.8. Dallas wasn't able to run the ball versus Jac defense, despite trying as they had 41 carries!!! And as documented Jags were moving nearly at will after the first quarter...

So fans here think Kellen Moore, in a game where Dallas couldn't get defensive stops and couldn't run the ball...should have stopped passing? This is epic nonsense. Mindless drivel.

 

[CCBoy]

I have concerns about our RB position and depth as well. I’m also concerned about our Texas Coast offense which appears to be about more passing although McCarthy said after releasing Moore that he wanted to run the ball more . We shall see.

The changed element in passing with the 'Texas Coast" is the routes that the new receivers are good at and the types that will compliment the scheme designs. The return of speed will as well make deep patterns more useful and given different shorter routes advantage, not just increases in volume of passes chunked.

The running game is more important through the entire game. As Parcells says, more time of possession than an opponent...still applies. It evens up team fatigue and performance on both sides of the ball.

The dominate features now are dominant offense and dominant defense,...not numbers of this or that

 

[CCBoy]

This is a recipe for having more success with Dak, not blaming him.
Quote from OP:
When Dak throws 28 or fewer passes in a game he is the best QB in the league.

Under these circumstances the Cowboys are 27-1, a winning percentage of 96.4%. Roethlisberger comes in 2nd at 93.3% and Mahomes 3rd with 91.3%.

Dak completed over 72% of his passes with a 5 to 1 TD/INT ratio for a passer rating of 115.4. In these 28 games he had thrown 47 TD's and 9 INT's.

A single stat only tells a number involving attempts, but nothing about scheme; players on both the offense and defense at a given play, errors conducted for specific reasons. An abstract number could also state that all whites are smarter than blacks due to specific numbers of graduations and numbers of graduates...but the original stats just don't say that. Nor will it ever justify the conclusion drawn. Reasons drawn are relevent and should come into view come conclusion time, outside of an a to b direct line.

 

[CCBoy]

Specific trend my butt. What trend?

On observing, this may help and it's from Troy Aikman, who was the last quarterback to lead Dallas to the Divisional Championship":

The Cowboys haven't reached the Super Bowl or even the NFC Championship Game since Troy Aikman was quarterbacking the team.

But since the Hall of Famer's retirement, it hasn't been a lack of talent Aikman says. It's been poor situational football.

"They are really good, and they've got really good players," Aikman told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "The organization has done a fantastic job. I think the coaches have done a great job. The players. All of it. They have won a lot of games. The problem for them, and they don't need me to tell them this, they just have not played their best football when the games have mattered the most."

https://thespun.com/more/top-storie...e-reason-cowboys-have-struggled-in-postseason


Now, poor situational ball comes about because players are not fully prepared in recognition and what to do in all situations. That is an earned response that comes from repetitive training and efficient leadership. Time in the playoffs is a slow and hard to gain, even if neccessaary.

 

[CCBoy]

Yes, you are absolutely right. Those were the circumstances.

However, you are looking in the wrong direction with respect to my point.

Since the Cowboys are 27-1 when Dak throws for 28 or less passes, under the conditions you perfectly described, do they always restrict their passing, under the circumstances you described?

If not.....why?

Do you remember the Jacksonville Jaguar game last season?

The Cowboys were ahead by two TD's at halftime. With three and a half minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Cowboys are still leading by ten points, a two score margin. The Cowboys are starting their drive on their own 16 yard line and on 1st and ten Dak is sacked.for an 8 tard loss.

Why? I don't mean why was he sacked. I mean why was he dropping back to pass on 1st and ten late in the game with a ten point lead?.....one of the circumstances you correctly noted as being conducive to throwing less and running more. Our data shows that had they done so, it was practically an automatic win.

However, they didn't stop there, did they? After assisting the Jaguar defense in creating more excitement for themselves and their fans, the Cowboys followed that play with another pass?

Again, why? The Cowboys have one of the league's best defenses. Punting the ball back to the Jaguar offense, who had only scored 17 points up to that point, shouldn't have caused the Cowboys coaches to get desperate. Run the ball a couple of times and punt the ball deep. Force them to earn it and, according to previous results, there is a 96% chance they won't.

Instead, they passed and the ball was intercepted and returned deep in Cowboys territory. It was the play that completely shifted momentum. Their insistence of continuing the passing game was the catalyst to defeat.

Knowing the positive outcome when they slow down the passing game, under the conditions you described, why would they ever decide to continue passing the ball instead of eating the clock, getting physical, and keeping the ball on the ground where there is less potential for a bad play?

That's the point I'm trying to make.

I'm not trying to justify the opinion that Dak is presently the greatest QB in the universe, I'm saying that they should follow the recipe and use the ingredients that statistically results in success.

Remember the Packer game last season?

The Cowboys go into the 4th quarter with a two TD lead....14 points. Twice, on 1st and ten, they pass.....against a Packer defense that is ranked high against the pass, and ranked near the bottom against the run.

Why?

Why not run the ball, take time away from Rodger's offense, gain some ground instead of nothing through an incomplete pass?

Teams that reach multiple Super Bowl titles are typically boring offensively. They run the ball consistantly and they use their defense to keep the score low and force the other team into mistakes. They don't hand the game to opponents by doing the things that result in momentum shifts.

Why in the world would you throw the ball 37 times in a playoff game in which your opponent could only score 19 points? With the score 6-6 on 2nd and 2 and in field goal range just before the half, why would you throw that ball? With a top ten rushing offense that is ranked 2nd in scoring, why would you pass 15 more times than you ran in a close, low scoring playoff game?

Is that what the 49ers did with their quarterback? No!

Is that because their running game was so dominant that day against the Cowboys? No! The 49ers averaged 3.5 yards a carry.

Before those INT's happened there was the decision to throw the ball and it was those decisions that lost football games. That's my point.

Know your people and use them for their best results...agreed.

 

[noshame]

On Wednesday night games
Dak is undefeated!
Put down the manufactured stats

Dak in clean pocket good
Dak under pressure horrible.
Everything you need to know.

 

[SpaceCowboy99]

When Dak throws 28 or fewer passes in a game he is the best QB in the league.

Under these circumstances the Cowboys are 27-1, a winning percentage of 96.4%. Roethlisberger comes in 2nd at 93.3% and Mahomes 3rd with 91.3%.

Dak completed over 72% of his passes with a 5 to 1 TD/INT ratio for a passer rating of 115.4. In these 28 games he had thrown 47 TD's and 9 INT's.

Of course, this implies a productive running game that forces defenses to respect that element of the offense.

It is also means that the defense can take advantage of their offenses long drives to be rested enough to give maximum effort each play The combination of less clock time combined with a tenacious defense will frustrates opponent offenses. Due to less opportunity, this creates pressure for the opponent by increasing the urgency to score, particularly in the 2nd half.

Dak was never a naturally gifted strong arm blue chip passer and it is ridiculous to compare him to those types of QB's. Dak has a different set of skills that emphasizes leadership, consistency and ball protection. The greatest flaw in Kellen Moore's offensive philosophy was trying to force Dak into being something he never was.

Dak was never a 1st round top 5 pick but he was perfect for the type of offense that the Cowboys used in his rookie season.

This philosophy is nothing new. Most recent teams that have won multiple Super Bowls used the same concept. The Ravens, Steelers, and Patriot teams early in Brady's career was based on the same concept, dominant running and opportunistic passing. In Brady's first four seasons as the starter the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls. In half of the regular season games, Brady threw 30 or less passes.

This is the secret to the success of QB's like Russel Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Andy Dalton. The only QB's that were highly successful throwing the ball more than 30 times a game were guys like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Mahomes. Again, these are the guys with the elite arms.

It is true that there were circumstances in which the Cowboys were forced to throw more often, like being down late in the game by a large margin. However, quite often, the Cowboys passed far more often than necessary. There were only 33 games in which the Cowboys were down by 10 or more points at halftime. However, they passed for more than 28 attempts in 59 games.
\
I would say that those circumstances will be rare this upcoming season due to the defense and it's ability to keep the score lower.

The only issue I see was the Cowboys were not aggressive enough in acquiring superior talent at the RB position. With 17 games in the regular season it was critical to obtain real talent at the RB position. The "warm body" approach will fail. I was disappointed when the Cowboys didn't draft another RB in day #1 or day #2. This should have been the #1 priority because you then have a 1-2 punch with legitimate talent. Don't get me wrong, I still would have taken Vaughn in the 6th but the Cowboys should have dedicated more resources to prevent their season from being destroyed by an injury at that position.

In order for the Cowboys to be successful and go to the Super Bowl, they must restrict the number of passes each game. The defense must be consistent and , most importantly, the Cowboys must discover another effective RB within their ranks. One of these young guys must have a dominant preseason.

I stopped reading when you said this

"The only QB's that were highly successful throwing the ball more than 30 times a game were guys like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Mahomes. Again, these are the guys with the elite arms."


You clearly left out Brady, which whom you just mentioned earlier pointing out his 3 SBs whee half of his games he had less than 30 throws when that happened before 2005, when it was still not a pass happy league. Comparing 23' to 03' QB play is a joke.

However, not mentioning Brady as an Elite QB that was successful with 30+ passing attempts and an elite arm is criminally stupid.

How many throws did he have in the Atlanta SB? Just checking....

 

[big dog cowboy]

Remember the Packer game last season?

The Cowboys go into the 4th quarter with a two TD lead....14 points. Twice, on 1st and ten, they pass.....against a Packer defense that is ranked high against the pass, and ranked near the bottom against the run.

Why? Why not run the ball, take time away from Rodger's offense, gain some ground instead of nothing through an incomplete pass?

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

People, c'mon! Put your thinking caps on. In what type of games is Dak throwing fewer passes? Think! Think!

I'll spell it out for you..it always involves one or more of these factors:
-Dallas is comfortably ahead for most or all the game, so no need to pass
-Opposing offenses are doing squat, so no need to pass
-Dallas is ripping off lots of big runs, so no need to pass

Let's look at games with 28 or fewer passes, shall we?

All such games from 2022 (2):
vs. Detroit...where the Lions only scored 6 points
vs. Bears...where Dallas averaged 6.9 yards a rush, was way ahead

All such games from 2021 (4):
vs. Chargers... Dallas averaged 6.4 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was way ahead, winning 41-21
vs. Panthers... Dallas averaged 7.2 yards a rush
vs. Eagles... Dallas was again way ahead, winning 51-26

In other news....I've just determined that over the last ten years...EVERY time I was carrying an umbrella outside, it was also raining. You know what THAT means! All I have to do to control weather, is take out or put up the ole umbrella!!!!!

Therefore, all I need to do to solve world hunger...is to go to Africa with my umbrella and walk around outside with it open, and this will cause it to rain, and after 2 months africa will be an oasis full of green fields and lush crops. Conversely....whenever I hear that a hurricane is brewing in the USA...I'll just walk around outside WITHOUT my umbrella, and no more hurricane!

You're welcome everyone

 

[Diehardblues]

A single stat only tells a number involving attempts, but nothing about scheme; players on both the offense and defense at a given play, errors conducted for specific reasons. An abstract number could also state that all whites are smarter than blacks due to specific numbers of graduations and numbers of graduates...but the original stats just don't say that. Nor will it ever justify the conclusion drawn. Reasons drawn are relevent and should come into view come conclusion time, outside of an a to b direct line.

I’m not sure what you are talking about. But for some reason we have some fans trying to deflect what is a proven path to success for our QB and many others .

 

[Diehardblues]

The changed element in passing with the 'Texas Coast" is the routes that the new receivers are good at and the types that will compliment the scheme designs. The return of speed will as well make deep patterns more useful and given different shorter routes advantage, not just increases in volume of passes chunked.

The running game is more important through the entire game. As Parcells says, more time of possession than an opponent...still applies. It evens up team fatigue and performance on both sides of the ball.

The dominate features now are dominant offense and dominant defense,...not numbers of this or that

Could you be less specific please . Lol
Another weird response which is as clear as mud.

 

[Diehardblues]

Great post.

Yea, I’m not sure why this thread wasn’t taken more positive by everyone . It clearly stated that no one is better in the league when these stats are delivered .

27-1. Wow. That’s certainly looks like a winning formula to me .