I don't know about the second part of the OP, although history would indicate we likely aren't going to go very far in the playoffs if we get there.
But the 1st part is likely pretty accurate at this point. There is little chance we can get into the Top 2 which would give us a home game in the divisional round.
Saints and Packers are 7-1. 49ers are 7-0.
- In order to get into the Top 2, if we were to win out, we'd need a combination of two of the below:
- 49ers to likely finish 6-3, with those three losses in conference
- Packers to go 5-3 and finish 12-4 as we lose the tiebreaker with them
- Saints to go 5-3 and finish 12-4 as we lose the tiebreaker with them
- If we were to lose one game (likely with a road game in NE) and finish 12-4 we'd need a combo of two of the below:
- 49ers to likely finish 5-4 and hope those 4 losses are in conference.
- Packers to go 4-4 and finish 11-5 as we lose the tiebreaker with them
- Saints to go 4-4 and finish 11-4 as we lose the tiebreaker with them
- If we lose two games, it is close to impossible to get the 49ers because we'd have the worst conference record. So in that case, we'd need BOTH the Packers and Saints to collapse and both finished 3-5 or worse.
In other words, we are playing for the 4th seed most likely as the OP noted.