"Top Defenses" are overrated; this is still a QB league

[75boyz]

It is a team driven league. It does not end with an elite QB, OL, run game and receivers.

The great Cowboys teams, Packers, Niners, Steelers and Patriots all have the same thing in common, balance. Those teams like the 85 Bears, 00 Ravens and 03 Bucs were one trick ponies and could not sustain because of the lack of balance.

In the off season, Belichick added two key pieces, Cooks and Gilmore, one for each side. He let some walk and kept his core and lest we forget, lost his best D player in Hightower and still overcame that. He continues to magically manage the cap and makes head scratching trades that all work out. But he is all about the team. He is the single best HC/GM in the league with attention to all 3 phases, that's not just buzz words to him.

By contrast, look at the Cowboys. How many times have they been caught flat footed at the end of the season with the cap? It is as if they do not look beyond the season ahead. They cannot achieve balance because they have failed to for so long to achieve. Balance has to be achieved to be sustained.

The lamest excuses for the Cowboys are the injuries. Other teams overcome them with backup QB's for 2 of the final 4. The Dallas Cowboys are no better at team building than they were 10 years ago.

Nice post. Very insightful and really nicely done.

 

[Melonfeud]

Points per drive

OFFENSE
1 Patriots
2 Saints
3 Steelers
4 Rams
5 Eagles
6 Chiefs

DEFENSE
1 Jaguars
2 Eagles
3 Chargers
4 Vikings
5 Ravens
6 Patriots

Man! That's a rankings chart worthy to briefly ponder upon,Percy!

Thanks for posting that up,man.

 

[percyhoward]

Points per drive is certainly better than what I thought you were using (points per game/scoring defense) but it doesn't take into account the quality of the opponent. DVOA weighs the strength of the opponents faced by each team and I think is a far better stat when measuring team defense.

Right, that's one of the features that is supposed to make DVOA a predictive metric. But their schedule of offenses faced ranks 20th, which is only on the low side of average, so that's not mainly what's bringing them so far down. DVOA has them so low because they give up a lot of yards and first downs. They rank
23rd in drive success rate, which also correlates to wins, just not as strongly as points per drive.

They've been a classic "bend-don't-break" unit up to this point. The predictive metric is telling us we shouldn't expect them to keep it up, but it's still one of the reasons the team has made it this far, and definitely a big reason they're the #1 seed. When scoring 17-24 points in a game this year, the Patriots were 6-1. Rest of the league was 80-94.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

You need both because, even though a defense may struggle to get stops consistently, it needs key stops, like the play NE DB made against the Jax receiver on the last drive.

 

[Jake]

Scoring defense of the four conference title game participants:

Vikings 1st
Jaguars 2nd
Eagles 4th
Patriots 5th

All four of them were in the top five in scoring defense this season. Obviously, defense is irrelevant.

 

[Chuck 54]

The truth is that you need an OL and playmakers on offense, but you also need a quality defense. Dallas has tried to win by putting all its money and capital on offense for years and has been repeatedly undone by a bottom feeder defense. When the narrative is we drafted a RB to keep the defense off the field, you know you’ll be in big trouble at some point. (And that’s not a knock on drafting Zeke). You won’t win a championship without a quality defense. One unit can be better than the other, but you better have better balance than Dallas has had for years. Our hope is that we have the foundational pieces on offense, lacking only better receivers, and Jerry is finally letting someone build a defense that may be able to compete and at least hold its own in the next year or two.

 

[TimHortons]

The Eagles and Patriots were 4th and 5th in Points per game surrendered. So no, you're wrong. Defense is as important as it's ever been.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...y=GAME_STATS&d-447263-s=TOTAL_POINTS_GAME_AVG

 

[conner01]

Both SB teams have good defenses
In points per game they are both in top 5 in the league

 

[Captain43Crash]

Yet Brady just put up 300 yds and 2Tds vs the leagues best pass defense

A Great Offense>> A Great Defense

Jacksonville is not a great defense. Very good defense, but far from great.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Jacksonville is not a great defense. Very good defense, but far from great.

 

[Asklesko]

It's a Tom Brady league and all the others are just playing in it.

 

[Sarge]

Philadelphia ranked 4th overall in defense this year (#1 in rushing yards per game).

 

[Hawkeye0202]

If you're talking about stopping opposing offenses from scoring points on any given possession, the Patriots were better than 26 other defenses this year.

Funny you say this .........remember hearing/reading Belichick saying there were only two stats he really cared about. Scoring ( offense and defense) and turnovers.....

 

[Hadenough]

An elite QB needs at least average pieces around him to win but an average qb needs at least a few elite pieces around him to win.

Defense, running game, offensive line and good playcalling/coaching.

Exactly why it would of been better to sell out to get Wentz even if it cost zeke and another good player

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Jacksonville is not a great defense. Very good defense, but far from great.

Jacksonville is a great D that is young and still learning to win. They knew all year they had to carry that offence and they did. I'm actually suprised they got to the AFC championship game. They didn't have their best game against the Pats but if they get their again next season they will remeber this year and that D will shut down whoever they play. Good teams have to learn how to win too

 

[G2]

Yes, Tom Brady commands the offense and puts up points at will, no question he's on another level. And the players around him step up. The 1st half he took a beating and it took him out of his comfort zone. Notice in the 2nd half Billy made some adjustments and he was better protected and it showed because he put the game away.
Now their defense may not be full of names opposing fans may recognized, but they are sneaky good and they stepped up all season long.

In the end, you need a healthy dose of all three phases. There are exceptions to the rule, but you need both. It's why we never went any further in the playoffs with Romo. He played very well, good enough to win games but our defense wasn't consistently great in the postseason. That's what it takes to get to a championship.

I wouldn't bet we dominate the division with how good Philly is and they are in good shape in regard to roster and cap.

 

[G2]

Jacksonville is a great D that is young and still learning to win. They knew all year they had to carry that offence and they did. I'm actually suprised they got to the AFC championship game. They didn't have their best game against the Pats but if they get their again next season they will remeber this year and that D will shut down whoever they play. Good teams have to learn how to win too

I was actually surprised at how well the Jags offense played. The last play was simply a great and outstanding defensive play because as lame as Bortles seemed to be all year that throw was there.

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

Yes, Tom Brady commands the offense and puts up points at will, no question he's on another level. And the players around him step up. The 1st half he took a beating and it took him out of his comfort zone. Notice in the 2nd half Billy made some adjustments and he was better protected and it showed because he put the game away.
Now their defense may not be full of names opposing fans may recognized, but they are sneaky good and they stepped up all season long.

In the end, you need a healthy dose of all three phases. There are exceptions to the rule, but you need both. It's why we never went any further in the playoffs with Romo. He played very well, good enough to win games but our defense wasn't consistently great in the postseason. That's what it takes to get to a championship.

I wouldn't bet we dominate the division with how good Philly is and they are in good shape in regard to roster and cap.

Eagles are up against the cap going into 2018, they will have to make some moves to get under the 2018 cap of Approx 178m, right now they are over the projected 2018 cap by about 7m. They do however have a set roster, if they can keep them all together

 

[G2]

Eagles are up against the cap going into 2018, they will have to make some moves to get under the 2018 cap of Approx 178m, right now they are over the projected 2018 cap by about 7m. They do however have a set roster, if they can keep them all together

I would give them the benefit of the doubt given how well they turned things around. It's quite impressive actually. They gave up a lot to get pieces like Wentz and overcame all the BS Chip Kelly did (IMO). To have the depth they have to overcome their starting QB and keep winning big games and going to the SB? Whoa! I'm convinced we don't have the coaching to hang. Specifically offensively. We have the weapons, we just don't have the depth and I can't say that they coached a great offense given some of the play calling we saw all season.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

The worst any SB winning team's defensive ranking was 16th, and that only once. Most SB winning teams had at least a top 10 defense. While having a top 5 defense isn't always necessary to win SBs, it definitely helps.

But really, it comes down to coaching, as far as the SB is concerned. Any defense or offense can be overcome if you have the right game plan and the players to run it. The 18-0 Patriots scored at will during the regular season, but the Giants held them to 14 pts in the SB. They figured out how to slow Brady and his offense. But the Eagles figured out how to score on the Vikings "top" defense, they ran the right plays and took advantage of turnovers.

It's not you have to have a great defense or have to have the great quarterback, you can win either way, if you use your defense or quarterback the right way...