Trading down? Oh, jeez...

[Tass]

How many guys in the draft can actually make an impact immediately? The lower you pick it stands to reason that the player pool you choose from is more diluted. So instead of an impact guy and some benchwarmers we want all benchwarmers? Whatever...I guess the Cowboy front office is smarter than all the draft gurus and analysts out there. I'm tired of thinking about it. Wow...I don't even care anymore. Just get who you're going to get and play ball already.

 

[DBoys]

There is value in later rounds just like the guy in your sig

 

[Tass]

There is value in later rounds just like the guy in your sig

Well, that was luck. I'm talking about a surer bet.

 

[Rack]

Well, that was luck. I'm talking about a surer bet.

There's no such thing as a sure bet. Not even if you have THE #1 pick.

 

[Jay]

Are you kidding me? Seriously, have you ever followed the draft or watched football in the past, or is this your first time?

 

[CowboyDan]

You mean like these surer bets?

QB Ryan Leaf (2) Washington State-San Diego Chargers-1998
RB Blair Thomas (2) Penn State-New York Jets-1990
WR Desmond Howard(4) Michigan-Washington Commanders-1992
TE Ricky Dudley(9) Ohio State-Houston Oilers-1996
OT Tony Mandarich(2) Michigan State-Green Bay Packers-1989
OG Eugene Chung(13) Virginia Tech-New England Patriots-1992
DE Aundray Bruce(1) Auburn-Atlanta Falcons-1988
DT Steve Emtman(1) Washington-Indianapolis Colts-1992
LB Brian Bosworth(2) Oklahoma-Seattle Seahawks-1987
CB Bruce Pickens(3) Nebraska-Atlanta Falcons-1991
S Patrick Bates (12) Texas A&M-Los Angeles Raiders-1993

QB Heath Schuler (3) Tennessee-Washington Commanders-1994
RB Lawrence Philips (6) Nebraska-St. Louis Rams-1995
WR Michael Westbrook (4) Colorado-Washington Commanders-1995
TE David LaFluer(22) LSU-Dallas Cowboys-1997
OT Antoine Davis(8) Tennessee-Philadelphia Eagles-1991
OG Brian Jozwiak(7) West Virginia-Kansas City Chiefs-1986
DE Andre Wadsworth(3) Florida State-Arizona Cardinals-1998
DT Dimitrius Underwood(29) Michigan State-MinnesotaVikings-1999
LB Percy Snow(13) Michigan State-Kansas City Chiefs-1990
CB Michael Booker(11) Nebraska-Atlanta Flacons-1997
S Shaun Williams(24) UCLA-New York Giants-1998

 

[Typhus]

All this trading down is really making my head spin, but whatever,... if they do, than one thing is certain,,, Lawson, Carpenter, and Wimbley, are not coveted targets, since SD, SF, and NE, all 3-4 teams, are all there waiting behind us.. waiting, and well,, is it saturday yet....:bang2:

 

[dallasfaniac]

Yeah, dropping down from 15 to 20 might be stupid, but dropping down from 18 to 30 the talent is pretty much the same. There's really only like what.....12 blue chip prospects? Unless one of the drops to 18, then trading down just gains us picks and leaves us with a similar talent pool.

Look at WR. Tell me that Holmes or Jackson would be a first rounder a year or two ago. Heck, at CB look at Cromartie. He wasn't a full time starter in 2004, and was injured in 2005, yet he is going to be a first rounder because of his workouts not his 1 year of parttime play.

We've had too many juniors or players 3 years removed from highschool entering the draft. It is becoming weak. Maybe next year will be different.

 

[trickblue]

All this trading down is really making my head spin, but whatever,... if they do, than one thing is certain,,, Lawson, Carpenter, and Wimbley, are not coveted targets, since SD, SF, and NE, all 3-4 teams, are all there waiting behind us.. waiting, and well,, is it saturday yet....:bang2:

As someone else said earlier today... if Carpenter is your most coveted player, don't get cute and trade down... draft him!

 

[Typhus]

As someone else said earlier today... if Carpenter is your most coveted player, don't get cute and trade down... draft him!

Im already onboard that ship TB, just waiting to set sail cap'n.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Jeff Ireland will take care of everything!

 

[iceberg]

Well, that was luck. I'm talking about a surer bet.

there is no sure bet.

 

[big dog cowboy]

How many guys in the draft can actually make an impact immediately? The lower you pick it stands to reason that the player pool you choose from is more diluted. So instead of an impact guy and some benchwarmers we want all benchwarmers? Whatever...I guess the Cowboy front office is smarter than all the draft gurus and analysts out there. I'm tired of thinking about it. Wow...I don't even care anymore. Just get who you're going to get and play ball already.

Working the draft board.

Getting more value for the pick.

These kind of terms must be pretty foreign to you.

 

[DBoys]

Working the draft board.

Getting more value for the pick.

These kind of terms must be pretty foreign to you.

LOL

 

[gbrittain]

You mean like these surer bets?

QB Ryan Leaf (2) Washington State-San Diego Chargers-1998
RB Blair Thomas (2) Penn State-New York Jets-1990
WR Desmond Howard(4) Michigan-Washington Commanders-1992
TE Ricky Dudley(9) Ohio State-Houston Oilers-1996
OT Tony Mandarich(2) Michigan State-Green Bay Packers-1989
OG Eugene Chung(13) Virginia Tech-New England Patriots-1992
DE Aundray Bruce(1) Auburn-Atlanta Falcons-1988
DT Steve Emtman(1) Washington-Indianapolis Colts-1992
LB Brian Bosworth(2) Oklahoma-Seattle Seahawks-1987
CB Bruce Pickens(3) Nebraska-Atlanta Falcons-1991
S Patrick Bates (12) Texas A&M-Los Angeles Raiders-1993

QB Heath Schuler (3) Tennessee-Washington Commanders-1994
RB Lawrence Philips (6) Nebraska-St. Louis Rams-1995
WR Michael Westbrook (4) Colorado-Washington Commanders-1995
TE David LaFluer(22) LSU-Dallas Cowboys-1997
OT Antoine Davis(8) Tennessee-Philadelphia Eagles-1991
OG Brian Jozwiak(7) West Virginia-Kansas City Chiefs-1986
DE Andre Wadsworth(3) Florida State-Arizona Cardinals-1998
DT Dimitrius Underwood(29) Michigan State-MinnesotaVikings-1999
LB Percy Snow(13) Michigan State-Kansas City Chiefs-1990
CB Michael Booker(11) Nebraska-Atlanta Flacons-1997
S Shaun Williams(24) UCLA-New York Giants-1998

Impressive list you put together, but that is just one big giant red herring IMO.

Lets use the three year rule. Players should be "players" by their third year by most account.

Now lets go back three years and analyze the draft.

Carson Palmer Bengals - Pro Bowl caliber player
Charles Rogers Lions - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Andre Johnson Texans - Pro Bowl caliber player
Dewayne RobertsonJets - Starter
Terence Newman Cowboys - Pro Bowl caliber player
Johnathan Sullivan Saints - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Byron Leftwich Jaguars - Pro Bowl caliber player
Jordan Gross Panthers - Pro Bowl caliber player
Kevin Williams Vikings - Pro Bowl caliber player
Terrell Suggs Ravens - Pro Bowl caliber player
Marcus Trufant Seahawks - Starter
Jimmy Kennedy Rams - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Ty Warren Patriots - Starter
Michael Haynes Bears - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Jerome McDougle Eagles - Undetermined due to injuries
Troy Polamalu Steelers - Pro Bowl caliber player
Bryant Johnson Cardinals - Role player
Calvin Pace Cardinals - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Kyle Boller Ravens - Starter
George Foster Broncos - Starter
Jeff Faine Browns - Starter. L. Bentley brought in
Rex Grossman Bears - Undetermined, due to injuries.
Willis McGahee Bills - Pro Bowl caliber player
Dallas Clark Colts - Starter
William Joseph Giants - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Kwame Harris 49ers - Starter
Larry Johnson Chiefs- Pro Bowl caliber player
Andre Woolfolk Titans - Still with team, borderline bust as of now
Nick Barnett Packers - Starter
Sammy Davis Chargers - Starter
Nnamdi Asomugha Raiders - Starter
Tyler Brayton Raiders - Still with team, borderline bust as of now

Dennis Weathersby Bengals - Out of NFL?
Artose Pinner Role player
Todd Johnson Bears - Minimal production
Domanick Davis Texans - Pro Bowl caliber player
Montrae Holland Saints - Starter
Bradie James Cowboys - Starter
George Wrighster Jaguars - Minimal production
Onterrio Smith Vikings - Role player
Shaun McDonald Rams - Role player
DeJuan Groce Rams - Starter
Quentin Griffin Broncos - Minimal production
Jarret Johnson Ravens - Starter
Seneca Wallace Seahawks - Undetermined, back up QB
Terrence McGee Bills - Starter
Matt Wilhelm Chargers - Minimal performance
Brett Williams Chiefs - Minimal performance
Nicholas Eason Broncos - Minimal performance
Lee Suggs Browns - Role player
Ian Scott Bears - Starter
Dan Klecko Patriots - Minimal performance
Jeremi Johnson Bengals - Minimal performance
Colin Branch Panthers - Minimal performance
Asante Samuel Patriots - Starter
Justin Griffith Falcons - Starter
Steve Sciullo Colts - Out of NFL?
Roderick Babers Giants - Out of NFL?
Brandon Lloyd 49ers - Commanders made him a millionaire (Starter)
Ivan Taylor Steelers - Out of NFL?
Rien Long Titans - Role player
Sam Aiken Bills - Minimal performance
Bryant McNeal Broncos - Minimal performance
Shurron Pierson Raiders - Out of NFL?

1st Round
Pro Bowl caliber players - 10
Starters - 11
Role Players - Hard to judge if a role player among first round picks
Bust - 10

2nd Round
Pro Bowl caliber players - 1
Starters - 9
Role Players - 5
Bust - 16

I used the first round versus the fourth round, because they are both the elite rounds of their days, days one and two. Of course had I compared round 1 versus round two the results would be much closer to each other I suspect. However, that is the point to demonstrate that the chances of getting a solid to Pro Bowl caliber player is much better in the first round and the odds of hitting on such players goes dows as each round passes.

Now this assessment is by no means perfect. Some "Pro Bowl" caliber players are much better than others and some are starters due to lack of a capable replacement and some are starters because they are that good.

Some 1st round picks would be out of the NFL if not for their big contracts and willingness to give them just "one" more try.

Some 4th round picks are just kept around due to their cheap price over a slightly better player and special teams contributions.

All in all, the notion that the first round picks are overrated is well...overrrated. If you want your best shot at an impact player you are most likely to find that person in the 1st round.

 

[Future]

i am very impressed with that gbrittain

but i cant imagine that every draft was that succesful

 

[gbrittain]

i am very impressed with that gbrittain

but i cant imagine that every draft was that succesful

I would agree with that. Understand one thing, I did not selectively pick a year that I knew would go one way or the other. I wanted to pick the most rescent draft that could be judged somewhat, therefore the three years.

I would venture to say that most years will bare out similiar percentages.

 

[AdamJT13]

All in all, the notion that the first round picks are overrated is well...overrrated. If you want your best shot at an impact player you are most likely to find that person in the 1st round.

But you're also paying a much higher cost and taking a much bigger risk, which aren't worth it, on average. Last year, two economists published research of NFL draft picks that found that the most efficient picks over the long haul are in the middle of the second round. The production from those players, on average, wasn't much lower than that of first-round picks, but the cost and risk involved was much lower.

 

[DCBoysfan]

Jeff Ireland will take care of everything!

we need to trust they have a plan.

 

[speedkilz88]

I would feel better about a trade down if they had a better track record with second round picks.