Trading down? Oh, jeez...

[Bob Sacamano]

How many guys in the draft can actually make an impact immediately? The lower you pick it stands to reason that the player pool you choose from is more diluted. So instead of an impact guy and some benchwarmers we want all benchwarmers? Whatever...I guess the Cowboy front office is smarter than all the draft gurus and analysts out there. I'm tired of thinking about it. Wow...I don't even care anymore. Just get who you're going to get and play ball already.

well the best value in this draft seems to be from picks 1-10 and then after pick #20, according to draft gurus, but don't be fooled, Dallas would rather stay and choose the best value instead of trading down, last year for quick reference, they only trade-down if a player with just as good a value can be had later, another example, trading down and out of the 1st round to select Julius in '04 when they felt there wasn't much seperation between him and Kevin Jones, Stephen Jackson and Tatum Bell, and they get to add a pick or 2 in the process

 

[Bob Sacamano]

But you're also paying a much higher cost and taking a much bigger risk, which aren't worth it, on average. Last year, two economists published research of NFL draft picks that found that the most efficient picks over the long haul are in the middle of the second round. The production from those players, on average, wasn't much lower than that of first-round picks, but the cost and risk involved was much lower.

take for instance, RBs, the success of those taken in the 2nd-3rd round has been better than those taken in the 1st

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Good operating principle for Cowboys Zone:

Argue with AdamJT13 if you want to look like a complete moron and display your ignorance for the board.

althought Adam is great don't be scared to argue with him...but not against cap matters then you will look like a fool lol

 

[Rack]

take for instance, RBs, the success of those taken in the 2nd-3rd round has been better than those taken in the 1st

No it hasn't.

Don't know how updated this is (pretty sure it's recent), but here's the top 10 all time leading rushers in the NFL.


1. Emmitt Smith 18,355 = First round pick
2. Walter Payton 16,726 = First round pick
3. Barry Sanders 15,269 = First round pick
4. Curtis Martin 14,101 = 3rd round pick
5. Jerome Bettis 13,662 = First round pick
6. Eric Dickerson 13,259 = First round pick
7. Tony Dorsett 12,739 = First round pick
8. Jim Brown 12,312 = First round pick
9. Marshall Faulk 12,279 = First round pick
10. Marcus Allen 12,243 = First round pick



I'd say RBs taken in the first round have been more successful then RBs taken in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I'd say RBs taken in the first round have been more successful then RBs taken in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

I'm talking about the last 10 years, sorry, didn't clarify

 

[Rack]

I'm talking about the last 10 years, sorry, didn't clarify

Dangit! Now you're gonna go and make me do some research!


Gonna feed my dogs, then I'm gonna look into that. You may be right, I dunno.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't have the stats, it's just off the top of my head, but I remember hearing that around the time we drafted Julius

oh and I'm not sorry I'm making you work *sticks tongue out*

 

[Smith22]

1st round 2001:
LaDainian Tomlinson
Deuce McAllister
Michael Bennett


2nd round 2001:
Anthony Thomas
LaMont Jordan
Travis Henry

1st round 2002:
William Green
T.J. Duckett

2nd round 2002:
DeShaun Foster
Clinton Portis
Maurice Morris
Ladell Betts

1st round 2003:
Willis McGahee
Larry Johnson

2nd round 2003:
NONE

1st round 2004:
Steven Jackson
Chris Perry
Kevin Jones

2nd round 2004:
Tatum Bell
Julius Jones

1st round 2005:
Ronnie Brown
Cedric Benson
Carnell Williams

2nd round 2005:
J.J. Arrington
Eric Shelton

 

[Bob Sacamano]

last 10 years

omitted the '95 draft because, well, it was a horrible year for RBs

'96

1st round:
Lawrence Phillips
Tim Biakabutuka
Eddie George

2nd round:
Leland McElroy

'97

1st round:
Warrick Dunn
Antwain Smith

2nd round:
Tiki Barber
Byron Hanspard
Corey Dillon


'98 draft

1st round:
Curtis Enis
Fred Taylor
Robert Edwards
Jon Avery

2nd round:
none

'99 draft

1st round:
Edge James
Ricky Williams

2nd round:
James Johnson
Kevin Faulk
Joe Montgomery
Jermaine Fazande

'00 Draft

1st round:
Thomas Jones
Ron Dayne
Shaun Alexander
Trung Candidate

2nd round:
none

'01 draft

1st round:
LaDainian Tomlinson
Deuce McAllister
Michael Bennett


2nd round:
Anthony Thomas
LaMont Jordan
Travis Henry

'02 Draft

1st round:
William Green
T.J. Duckett

2nd round:
DeShaun Foster
Clinton Portis
Maurice Morris
Ladell Betts

 

[billknows]

It's not just salaries, it's also the cost of the picks themselves. If you trade down out of the first round, you can end up with two second-round picks, plus maybe other picks, instead of just the one. If you do that, you'll be better off in the long run, on average.

Let's say we have the No. 18 pick 20 years in a row. Every other year, we keep it, and in the other years, we trade it for picks Nos. 44 and 46 (just because that balances out in the common value chart). After all of their careers ended, if you analyzed the production we got from those picks (10 players at No. 18, 10 at No. 44 and 10 at No. 46) in return for the cost (in dollars and picks), the second-round picks should have been more efficient, according to those analysts' research. For example, if the 10 first-round picks yielded three Pro Bowl players, four quality starters, two OK starters and one outright bust, the 20 second-rounders might yield four Pro Bowl players, eight quality starters, five OK starters and three busts -- and for a total dollar cost of less than the 10 first-rounders, leaving more money to sign other players and free agents.



The vast majority of those 30 first-round Hall of Famers -- 21 of them, to be precise -- were selected within the first eight picks of the draft. From picks Nos. 9 through 32, there were only nine Hall of Famers taken. From picks Nos. 33 through 48 (the middle of the second round these days), there were seven Hall of Famers drafted. And if you extend it through No. 64 (the end of the second round now), there were nine Hall of Famers taken. The chances of drafting a Hall of Famer in the second round is almost the same as the chances of drafting one in the first round outside the top eight picks.

So yes, you do have a better chance of getting an elite talent at the very top of the first round. But if you miss, the cost -- in pick value and in dollars -- is huge and can be extremely damaging to the team. After the top 10 or so, the talent begins to level off more than the risk does. That's why, over the long haul, picking from the middle of the second round is more efficient.

Great logic , this discusion is awesome and a eye opener ,this is a great board.

 

[billknows]

I am not taking into account salaries. I understand that is a factor, but that is not what I am talking about.

I understand the value of the middle to late rounds as well. I am a big believer in the draft and that you should build your team through it and not free agency.

Bottom line IMO is that the better players are in the first round. Each team has seven picks in the seven rounds barring trades and compensatory picks. If I could have seven first round picks, I guarantee you that I will have the better draft three years down the road than the team that gets 7 picks from 1st to 7th round.

Now I know that sounds silly and it is. For one a team could not afford the seven first round picks, but again my point is not the cost effectiveness of first round picks, but the talent level.

For example, of all the HOFers drafted since 1970:

1st Round 30 HOFers
2nd Round 7 HOFers
3rd Round 4 HOFers
4th Round 3 HOFers
5th Round 1 HOF
6th and beyond 0 HOFers

If you want a chance at elite talent, your best bet is still in the first round.

Fun ,great debate ,gbrittain,adam, deserves it's own tread ,hurry sat...

 

[billknows]

I have a earth shattering idea for you two (TD3 and Adam).


How about, ok settle down and hear me out...

How about we trade down... Shhh! Quiet, TD3, let me finish...

How about we trade down, but... Adam, settle down, let me finish.

How about we trade down, but... but don't trade out of the first round.




We get better value.

We still get a first round pick.


Everybody wins.





Seriously though, if we trade down, we aren't gonna be able to get Carpenter. We might get Lawson or Wimbley though.

 

[Rack]

2005:​

1st:

Ronnie Brown = 907 yards, 4 TDs
Cedric Benson = 272 yards, 0 tds
Cadillac Williams = 1148 yards, 6 TDs

Avg: 775 yards, 3 TDs

2nd:

JJ Arrington = 370 yards, 2 TDs
Eric Shelton = DNP

Avg: 370 yards, 2 TDs

3rd:

Gore = 608 yards, 3 TDs
Vernand Morency = 184 yards, 2 TDs
Ryan Moats = 278 yards, 3 TDs
Maurice Clarett = Did not make a roster cuz he freakin' SUCKED

Avg: 268 yards, 2 TDs


ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs

2004:​

1st:

Steven Jackson = 1719 yards, 12 TDs
Chris Perry = 280 yards, 0 TDs
Kevin Jones = 1797 yards, 10 TDs

Avg: 1265 yards, 7 TDs


2nd:

Tatum Bell = 1317 yards, 11 TDs
Julius Jones = 1812 yards, 12 TDs
Greg Jones = 737 yards, 7 TDs
Tony Hollings (2005 supplemental 2nd round pick) = 149 yards, 0 tds

Avg: 1004 yards, 8 TDs


No third round RBs that year.


ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs

2003:​

1st:

Willis McGahee = 2375 yards, 18 TDs
Larry Johnson = 2416 yards, 30 TDs

Avg: 2396 yards, 24 TDs


3rd:

Musa Smith = 79 yards, 2 TDs
BJ Askew (FB?) = FULLBACK
Chris Brown = 2139 yards, 11 TDs
Justin Fargas = 357 yards, 1 TD


Avg: 858 yards, 5 TDs

* No 2nd round RBs in 2003.
** I didn't add the FB into the equation.

ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs

2002:​

1st:

William Green = 2109 yards, 9 TDs
TJ Duckett = 2175 yards, 31 TDs

Avg: 2142 yards, 20 TDs


2nd:

DeShaun Foster = 1563 yards, 4 TDs
Clinton Portis = 5930 yards, 45 TDs
Maurice Morris = 806 yards, 1 TD
Ladell Betts = 1271 yards, 5 TDs


Avg: 2392 yards, 14 TDs


3rd:

Lamar Gordon = 772 yards, 3 TDs
Brian Westbrook = 2235 yards, 13 TDs


Avg: 1504 yards, 8 TDs

* Portis got to play in Denver his first two years.

Advantage: SECOND ROUND RBs

2001:​

1st:

Tomlinson = 7361 yards, 72 TDs
Deuce McAllister = 4529 yards, 34 TDs
Michael Bennett = 3174 yards, 12 TDs


Avg: 5021 yards, 39 TDs


2nd:

Anthony Thomas = 3424 yards, 21 TDs
Lamont Jordan = 2302 yards, 19 TDs
Travis Henry = 4184 yards, 27 TDs


Avg: 3303 yards, 22 TDs


3rd:

James Jackson = 1082 yards, 5 TDs
Kevan Barlow = 3614 yards, 24 TDs
Travis Minor = 1059 yards, 8 TDs


Avg: 1918 yards, 12 TDs


ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs

2000:​

1st:

Jamal Lewis = 6669 yards, 36 TDs
Thomas Jones = 4174 yards, 28 TDs
Ron dayne = 2337 yards, 17 TDs
Shaun Alexander = 7817 yards, 89 TDs
Trung Canidate = 1095 yards, 7 TDs


Avg: 4418 yards, 35 TDs


3rd:

Travis Prentice = 525 yards, 9 TDs
JR Redmond = 676 yards, 1 TD
Reuben Droughns = 2569 yards, 9 TDs
Doug Chapman = DID NOT MAKE ROSTER


Avg: 943 yards, 5 TDs


* No 2nd round RBs in 2000


ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs

1999:​

1st:

Edge = 9226 yards, 64 TDs
Ricky Williams = 7097 yards, 47 TDs


Avg: 8162 yards, 56 TDs


2nd:

JJ Johnson = 748 yards, 5 TDs
Kevin Faulk = 2275 yards, 10 TDs
Joe Montgomery = 372 yards, 4 TDs
Mike Cloud = 648 yards, 12 TDs
Jermaine Fazande = 733 yards, 4 TDs


Avg: 955 yards, 7 TDs


3rd:

Shawn Bryson = 2143 yards, 6 TDs
Jeff Paulk = FULLBACK
Amos Zereoue = 2137 yards, 10 TDs


Avg: 2140 yards, 8 TDs


ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs

1998:​

1st:

Curtis Enis = 1497 yards, 4 TDs
Fred Taylor = 8367 yards, 51 TDs
Robert Edwards = 1222 yards, 10 TDs
John Avery = 524 yards, 2 TDs


Avg: 2903 yards, 17 TDs


2nd:

Robert Holcombe = 1141 yards, 11 TDs


Avg: 1141 yards, 11 TDs


3rd:

Skip Hicks = 1109 yards, 13 TDs
Ahman Green = 7432 yards, 49 TDs
Chris Floyd = FULLBACK
Rashaan Shehee = 295 yards, 1 TD


Avg: 2945 yards, 21 TDs


ADVANTAGE: THIRD ROUND RBs (by a hair over the first rounders)

1997:​

1st:

Warrick Dunn = 8321 yards, 39 TDs
Antowain Smith = 6881 yards, 54 TDs


Avg: 7601 yards, 47 TDs


2nd:

Tiki Barber = 8787 yards, 50 TDs
Byron Hanspard = 718 yards, 1 TD
Corey Dillon = 10429 yards, 69 TDs


Avg: 6644 yards, 40 TDs


3rd:

Sedrick Shaw = 258 yards, 1 TD
Troy Davis = 446 yards, 1 TD
Jay Graham = 454 yards, 2 TDs
Duce Staley = 5785 yards, 24 TDs


Avg: 1734 yards, 7 TDs


ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs (by a hair over the second rounders)

1996:​

1st:

Lawrence Phillips = 1453 yards, 14 TDs
Tim Biakabutuka = 2530 yards, 14 TDs
Eddie George = 10441 yards, 68 TDs


Avg: 4808 yards, 32 TDs


2nd:

Leeland McElroy = 729 yards, 3 TDs
Mike Alstott = 4917 yards, 55 TDs


Avg: 2823 yards, 29 TDs


3rd:

Detron Smith (FB?) = FULLBACK
Winslow Oliver = 215 yards, 0 tds
Moe Williams = 1826 yards, 21 TDs
Karim Abdul-Jabbar = 3411 yards, 33 TDs
Jarald Moore = 705 yards, 6 TDs
Reggie Brown = FULLBACK
Jon Witman (FB?) = FULLBACK


Avg: 1539 yards, 15 TDs



ADVANTAGE: FIRST ROUND RBs (despite having two HUGE busts in that round)



So in 8 out of the last 10 drafts, the first round has produced the better RBs (by average career numbers), and in most of those years the 2nd/3rd rounds weren't even close.


I rest my case.

 

[silverbear]

How many guys in the draft can actually make an impact immediately? The lower you pick it stands to reason that the player pool you choose from is more diluted. So instead of an impact guy and some benchwarmers we want all benchwarmers?

That's right, Tass, there has never, EVER been a later round draft pick who went on to stardom in the NFL...

Joe Montana wasn't a 3rd round pick...

Larry Allen wasn't a 2nd round pick...

Tom Brady wasn't a late round pick...

Whatever...I guess the Cowboy front office is smarter than all the draft gurus and analysts out there.

I sure as h*** hope so... has it occurred to you that if those "draft gurus" and "analysts" were really so good at their job, they'd be working for some NFL team??

I'll also note that all those draft gurus and analysts positively drooled over what the Cowboys did last year, so I don't know where you get the idea that what the Cowboys have been doing is so radically different from conventional wisdom...

Wow...I don't even care anymore.

Then we can assume this will be your last post on the subject??

One can only hope, it will spare me the need to point out how ridiculous it is to snarl about the Cowboys' picks before they've even picked them...

Oooops, I guess I did just point that out...

 

[silverbear]

Well, that was luck. I'm talking about a surer bet.

Terrific-- now, who exactly is this "surer bet" who will be available at pick 18 in this draft??

 

[silverbear]

I am not taking into account salaries. I understand that is a factor, but that is not what I am talking about.

I understand the value of the middle to late rounds as well. I am a big believer in the draft and that you should build your team through it and not free agency.

Bottom line IMO is that the better players are in the first round. Each team has seven picks in the seven rounds barring trades and compensatory picks. If I could have seven first round picks, I guarantee you that I will have the better draft three years down the road than the team that gets 7 picks from 1st to 7th round.

Now I know that sounds silly and it is. For one a team could not afford the seven first round picks, but again my point is not the cost effectiveness of first round picks, but the talent level.

For example, of all the HOFers drafted since 1970:

1st Round 30 HOFers

And how many of those 30 were drafted before pick 18??

 

[silverbear]

The vast majority of those 30 first-round Hall of Famers -- 21 of them, to be precise -- were selected within the first eight picks of the draft. From picks Nos. 9 through 32, there were only nine Hall of Famers taken. From picks Nos. 33 through 48 (the middle of the second round these days), there were seven Hall of Famers drafted. And if you extend it through No. 64 (the end of the second round now), there were nine Hall of Famers taken. The chances of drafting a Hall of Famer in the second round is almost the same as the chances of drafting one in the first round outside the top eight picks.

Well, that answered my question... guess I should have read a bit farther before asking it, LOL...

As always, I'm in awe of your ability to research a subject, Adam...

 

[silverbear]

I guess you missed the gist of my post, smart guy. Trading down USUALLY means players who aren't as good as earlier picks.

Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't... this year, those draft gurus and analysts you touted in your initial post say that the marquee talent runs 12, maybe 15 players deep this year, and once you get past the blue chippers, there's about 40-50 players on that second tier who grade out pretty close to each other...

If you're gonna cite the draft gurus and analysts, perhaps you should pay closer attention to what they had this year??

I'd take one great player over two above average ones. That concise enough for you?

Nope, because you haven't mentioned what "great players" might be available at pick 18... the sources you cite as definitive say there aren't any...

 

[silverbear]

Good operating principle for Cowboys Zone:

Argue with AdamJT13 if you want to look like a complete moron and display your ignorance for the board.

Arguing with Adam is always a risky proposition, simply because he has his facts in order when he speaks, but I would hardly characterize the folks arguing with him at the moment as "morons", or "ignorant"...

I rather doubt that Adam would characterize them that way either...

 

[silverbear]

TwoDeep, your criticisms of the Cowboys' second round draft picks are quite legit, except for one thing:

Larry Lacewell isn't here any more... so perhaps it's not real fair to lay the blame for the team's second round failures at Jeff Ireland's feet...

IOW, given the recent change in the decision making process out at Valley Ranch, an historical argument may not be your best approach...