Was it a mistake by JG to go for the 58 yd fg try?

[sureletsrace]

It rubbed me the wrong way.

P = Probability Maher makes the kick

Choice 1 - Kick
P Make it - +3, Seahawks at 25 after kick off
1- P Miss it - Seahawks at 47.

Choice 2 - Punt
Seahawks at 10


Difference of Kick to Punt

P    +3, -15 field position
1-P      -37 field position

This is all assuming we pin them inside the 10.

If it goes in the end zone, we gain what, 15 yards of field position vs a potential 3pts?

You go for that kick if you have a kicker who can get it. Maher can. I know he missed but the potential for 3 points is worth 15yds.

 

[buybuydandavis]

It rubbed me the wrong way.

P = Probability Maher makes the kick

Choice 1 - Kick
P Make it - +3, Seahawks at 25 after kick off
1- P Miss it - Seahawks at 47.

Choice 2 - Punt
Seahawks at 10


Difference of Kick to Punt

P    +3, -15 field position
1-P      -37 field position

I'm unpleased. The 20 minute time limit ran out on my treatise and it is now lost to the universe.

From here, Expected Points of 10 yards of field position is about 2/3.
http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

EP = 3P -1 + 2.47P -2.47 = 5.47*(P - 0.63)

The break even point for the kick is 63%. Seems wildly optimistic.

From here, the probability from the 40 yard line is 0.4.
https://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2013/01/chances-of-making-an-nfl-field-goal.html

By that, trying the kick instead of punting was Expected Points = -1.25.

"Game Management"

 

[buybuydandavis]

This is all assuming we pin them inside the 10.

If it goes in the end zone, we gain what, 15 yards of field position vs a potential 3pts?

You go for that kick if you have a kicker who can get it. Maher can. I know he missed but the potential for 3 points is worth 15yds.

Not inside, the 10, at the 10. That was my expectation for a punt from their 40. A 30 yard kick and a fair catch. I think that's a reasonable expectation.

 

[Nav22]

Nah. Maher’s been money from 50+ all year. I was surprised he missed.

 

[sureletsrace]

Not inside, the 10, at the 10. That was my expectation for a punt from their 40. A 30 yard kick and a fair catch. I think that's a reasonable expectation.

It's hard to down a punt at or inside the 10 when your punter is that close. Your expectation is valid, but let's say it doesn't and goes into the end zone. Then you've gained 15 yards of field position at the cost of a potential 3 points.

 

[Pompey-Cowboy]

I had no problem with the call. It was a gutsy positive call that showed faith in a player. Loads of 'fans' on here are constantly moaning about our coaches lack of creativity and being too predictable but when they do things from outside the box then they are dumb and reckless.

 

[ConstantReboot]

I think it was, and it could have cost the cowboys the game if Seattle had not lost their kicker.

Here is the situation:
Dallas 3 Seattle 3 2nd qtr 3.12 remaining Ball is at Seattle 40.

Now to me this is a battle of defense and field position, and the chances of making this long
of a kick is 50 / 50.
Miss the kick and you give Seattle great position at the Seattle 48.
This is not smart to me, I think you punt and try to down ball inside the 10.

By missing Seattle now got the upper hand in field position, and they drove a short distance for a FG.
then after kicking off we got the ball at our own 25.

Now had we punted and held Seattle to 3 and out we would have had upper hand still in field position.

If we had made the FG it is only 3 points, early in the game, so not really worth losing in field position.

Now 2 things I read later that the kick by maher was partially blocked or deflected, and on re-watch hard to
tell but it might have been.

2nd thing is when a team misses a FG the ball is evidently spotted at the point the ball is kicked from,
not the LOS! I didn't know this, and was wondering why LOS was the 40 but Seattle started at the 48.

But this is the type of decision making by JG that just isnt good. He should know better by now.
In this type game and that situation it is smarter to punt, and make Seattle drive long way for any points
they get, dont give them a short field.

I will add that if I were HC in playoffs, I would not put maher out there unless it was 48 yds or closer, except if time is about up in half or the game.
punt and play field position.

Yes it was. But good thing that we missed. Because if he would have made it Garrett and Linehan would have played a conservative gameplan and would have given Seattle a chance to win. Only when the Cowboys was behind, the offense sprung to life and started making plays.

 

[Crypto]

I think it was, and it could have cost the cowboys the game if Seattle had not lost their kicker.

Here is the situation:
Dallas 3 Seattle 3 2nd qtr 3.12 remaining Ball is at Seattle 40.

Now to me this is a battle of defense and field position, and the chances of making this long
of a kick is 50 / 50.
Miss the kick and you give Seattle great position at the Seattle 48.
This is not smart to me, I think you punt and try to down ball inside the 10.

By missing Seattle now got the upper hand in field position, and they drove a short distance for a FG.
then after kicking off we got the ball at our own 25.

Now had we punted and held Seattle to 3 and out we would have had upper hand still in field position.

If we had made the FG it is only 3 points, early in the game, so not really worth losing in field position.

Now 2 things I read later that the kick by maher was partially blocked or deflected, and on re-watch hard to
tell but it might have been.

2nd thing is when a team misses a FG the ball is evidently spotted at the point the ball is kicked from,
not the LOS! I didn't know this, and was wondering why LOS was the 40 but Seattle started at the 48.

But this is the type of decision making by JG that just isnt good. He should know better by now.
In this type game and that situation it is smarter to punt, and make Seattle drive long way for any points
they get, dont give them a short field.

I will add that if I were HC in playoffs, I would not put maher out there unless it was 48 yds or closer, except if time is about up in half or the game.
punt and play field position.

We have one kicker, I'm good with Maher and what he has done so far. Much more confidence in him than Lenoir. Let's go Lenoir!!! Get ur head in the game!

 

[Fmart322]

I think it was, and it could have cost the cowboys the game if Seattle had not lost their kicker.

Here is the situation:
Dallas 3 Seattle 3 2nd qtr 3.12 remaining Ball is at Seattle 40.

Now to me this is a battle of defense and field position, and the chances of making this long
of a kick is 50 / 50.
Miss the kick and you give Seattle great position at the Seattle 48.
This is not smart to me, I think you punt and try to down ball inside the 10.

By missing Seattle now got the upper hand in field position, and they drove a short distance for a FG.
then after kicking off we got the ball at our own 25.

Now had we punted and held Seattle to 3 and out we would have had upper hand still in field position.

If we had made the FG it is only 3 points, early in the game, so not really worth losing in field position.

Now 2 things I read later that the kick by maher was partially blocked or deflected, and on re-watch hard to
tell but it might have been.

2nd thing is when a team misses a FG the ball is evidently spotted at the point the ball is kicked from,
not the LOS! I didn't know this, and was wondering why LOS was the 40 but Seattle started at the 48.

But this is the type of decision making by JG that just isnt good. He should know better by now.
In this type game and that situation it is smarter to punt, and make Seattle drive long way for any points
they get, dont give them a short field.

I will add that if I were HC in playoffs, I would not put maher out there unless it was 48 yds or closer, except if time is about up in half or the game.
punt and play field position.

I'm not a coach so my opinion really doesn't matter much.
I would have just punted there and continued the field position game.
Now if I were to rank what to do:
1- Punt
2- Go for it
3- Fg

 

[Crypto]

I like the question. What if we rested Dak, or ran Zeke week 17? My favorite question is what if we didn't draft Dak? Where would we be? I remember the year before Dak, sans Romo...gross.

 

[catiii]

I think it was, and it could have cost the cowboys the game if Seattle had not lost their kicker.

Here is the situation:
Dallas 3 Seattle 3 2nd qtr 3.12 remaining Ball is at Seattle 40.

Now to me this is a battle of defense and field position, and the chances of making this long
of a kick is 50 / 50.
Miss the kick and you give Seattle great position at the Seattle 48.
This is not smart to me, I think you punt and try to down ball inside the 10.

By missing Seattle now got the upper hand in field position, and they drove a short distance for a FG.
then after kicking off we got the ball at our own 25.

Now had we punted and held Seattle to 3 and out we would have had upper hand still in field position.

If we had made the FG it is only 3 points, early in the game, so not really worth losing in field position.

Now 2 things I read later that the kick by maher was partially blocked or deflected, and on re-watch hard to
tell but it might have been.

2nd thing is when a team misses a FG the ball is evidently spotted at the point the ball is kicked from,
not the LOS! I didn't know this, and was wondering why LOS was the 40 but Seattle started at the 48.

But this is the type of decision making by JG that just isnt good. He should know better by now.
In this type game and that situation it is smarter to punt, and make Seattle drive long way for any points
they get, dont give them a short field.

I will add that if I were HC in playoffs, I would not put maher out there unless it was 48 yds or closer, except if time is about up in half or the game.
punt and play field position.

Absolutely Bush League call. Agreed on all counts.

 

[buybuydandavis]

It's hard to down a punt at or inside the 10 when your punter is that close. Your expectation is valid, but let's say it doesn't and goes into the end zone. Then you've gained 15 yards of field position at the cost of a potential 3 points.

We can play the woulda coulda shoulda for a lot of possibilities. I tried to pick the median outcome.

 

[Hadenough]

Maher has a powerful kick! He is better outside of 50 yard line. Problem is the Cowboys had been sitting on a 3 point lead the whole first half. Since the Seahawks just tied the game and had momentum plus a 1:30 left on the clock this was a stupid call by Garrett. Punt the ball pin them back and play defense. Instead we all had to watch this defense hold on for dear life. You only attempt that long a kick at the end of a half or game otherwise you give the other team the ball with one play away from being in FG range.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

I'd say in that scenario it 100% was the wrong call.

The risk (missing a 58 yarder to put your defender in terrible field position) was much greater than the reward (3 points).

Should have punted and put them on a long field with the way the defense was playing.

Thankfully, it didnt come back as such of a costly mistake.

It was a horrible call. Lucky it didn't backfire. We dodged a huge bullet.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I like the question. What if we rested Dak, or ran Zeke week 17? My favorite question is what if we didn't draft Dak? Where would we be? I remember the year before Dak, sans Romo...gross.

If you didn’t draft Dak you’d have a terrible year in 2016 and your starting QB today would likely be named Mahomes or Watson.

 

[Crypto]

If you didn’t draft Dak you’d have a terrible year in 2016 and your starting QB today would likely be named Mahomes or Watson.

No, wrong. Fun to think about though.

 

[nightrain]

100%.

 

[Hardline]

Dan Bailey in his prime then yes.
Try the kick.

 

[TexasHillbilly]

If he would have made the kick this post would not have even started. Maher has proven he can make that kick so why not try.

 

[Stash]

I think it was, and it could have cost the cowboys the game if Seattle had not lost their kicker.

Here is the situation:
Dallas 3 Seattle 3 2nd qtr 3.12 remaining Ball is at Seattle 40.

Now to me this is a battle of defense and field position, and the chances of making this long
of a kick is 50 / 50.
Miss the kick and you give Seattle great position at the Seattle 48.
This is not smart to me, I think you punt and try to down ball inside the 10.

By missing Seattle now got the upper hand in field position, and they drove a short distance for a FG.
then after kicking off we got the ball at our own 25.

Now had we punted and held Seattle to 3 and out we would have had upper hand still in field position.

If we had made the FG it is only 3 points, early in the game, so not really worth losing in field position.

Now 2 things I read later that the kick by maher was partially blocked or deflected, and on re-watch hard to
tell but it might have been.

2nd thing is when a team misses a FG the ball is evidently spotted at the point the ball is kicked from,
not the LOS! I didn't know this, and was wondering why LOS was the 40 but Seattle started at the 48.

But this is the type of decision making by JG that just isnt good. He should know better by now.
In this type game and that situation it is smarter to punt, and make Seattle drive long way for any points
they get, dont give them a short field.

I will add that if I were HC in playoffs, I would not put maher out there unless it was 48 yds or closer, except if time is about up in half or the game.
punt and play field position.

I think that this is an excellent, well-articulated point and one that I very much agree with. I will add however that I think that overall, Garrett has done a very good job with his decision-making, especially recently. But yeah, this was one that I disagreed with, both then and now. And I'd bet it's one he'd like to have back too.

Great post!