Was it a mistake by JG to go for the 58 yd fg try?

[pancakeman]

Argue kick vs punt okay, but you guys saying go for it are nuts.

 

[Doomsday101]

Marah clearly has the leg to make it but I would have rather seen Dallas punt the ball in that situation.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

No, wrong. Fun to think about though.

How is that wrong? Romo gets hurt, you lose between 8-12 games, you have a top 15 pick and need a qb desperately.

 

[Crypto]

How is that wrong? Romo gets hurt, you lose between 8-12 games, you have a top 15 pick and need a qb desperately.

I'd fillet our entire offense for Mahomes. He was never in our realm. Psyched we have Dak!

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I think it was, and it could have cost the cowboys the game if Seattle had not lost their kicker.

Here is the situation:
Dallas 3 Seattle 3 2nd qtr 3.12 remaining Ball is at Seattle 40.

Now to me this is a battle of defense and field position, and the chances of making this long
of a kick is 50 / 50.
Miss the kick and you give Seattle great position at the Seattle 48.
This is not smart to me, I think you punt and try to down ball inside the 10.

By missing Seattle now got the upper hand in field position, and they drove a short distance for a FG.
then after kicking off we got the ball at our own 25.

Now had we punted and held Seattle to 3 and out we would have had upper hand still in field position.

If we had made the FG it is only 3 points, early in the game, so not really worth losing in field position.

Now 2 things I read later that the kick by maher was partially blocked or deflected, and on re-watch hard to
tell but it might have been.

2nd thing is when a team misses a FG the ball is evidently spotted at the point the ball is kicked from,
not the LOS! I didn't know this, and was wondering why LOS was the 40 but Seattle started at the 48.

But this is the type of decision making by JG that just isnt good. He should know better by now.
In this type game and that situation it is smarter to punt, and make Seattle drive long way for any points
they get, dont give them a short field.

I will add that if I were HC in playoffs, I would not put maher out there unless it was 48 yds or closer, except if time is about up in half or the game.
punt and play field position.

here we go. damned if he does. damned if we doesn't....there was several long running threads last year on garrett being risk averse when just inside opponents field. the argument was we should go for 4th downs and punting is the wrong thing and stats upon stats upon stats were provided. now, instead of going for a 4th down from the 41, he kicked a field goal. and its the wrong decision.

so to your point. they didn't have a kicker. and the defense was playing well. so chances of them having a long drive at that point in the game was low based on what had happened. so he took a calculated risk, banking on the fact that the defense will continue to play well. so if we make the field goal. great. if we miss the field goal, the defense will make a stop or limit them. its still early in the game. there are never guarantees. but high probabilities and you go base on that...

IMO, it was the right risky call.

so back to my original statement....damned if you do. damned if you don't. he got grilled last year for not taking chances just like this. he is getting grilled this year for doing it. when you don't like someone, there is always a way to spin things to your view.

so take a chance? or not take a chance? you garrett haters need to get on the same page.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

No but it was a mistake not to replace Maher during the season. There were options.

replace with whom? please provide options instead of just pointing to problems..... if you don't have a better option, then remain quiet.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It was a risky call for sure. Of course, lots of people hate garrett for being conservative. So...

 

[SportsGuru80]

In the playoffs you go for the points, I wasn't mad at all. Kickers get paid to make kicks.

 

[DandyDon52]

It was a gamble. Mahr is not that consistent. The drive was messed up at 2nd down Dak took a sack.

DAK took the sack because tyron didnt do what he should when his guy took off to go around connor, he should have gone back
towards dak and wait for the guy to come thru gap, but instead tried to chase him down lol.

If I was rams dc I would use that same stunt over and over cause cowboys cant handle it.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

I'm unpleased. The 20 minute time limit ran out on my treatise and it is now lost to the universe.

From here, Expected Points of 10 yards of field position is about 2/3.
http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

EP = 3P -1 + 2.47P -2.47 = 5.47*(P - 0.63)

The break even point for the kick is 63%. Seems wildly optimistic.

From here, the probability from the 40 yard line is 0.4.
https://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2013/01/chances-of-making-an-nfl-field-goal.html

By that, trying the kick instead of punting was Expected Points = -1.25.

"Game Management"

well, if football was as easy as math...all mathematicians would be head coaches.....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Marah clearly has the leg to make it but I would have rather seen Dallas punt the ball in that situation.

that would have resulted in a 15 yard field position change.....odds of downing inside the 20 would be very low punting from that position on the field.

 

[BourbonBalz]

It was absolutely a bad decision. Luckily, it didn’t cost us the game.

 

[jsb357]

No way you attempt a 58 yard field goal unless the half or the game is ending.

 

[JW82]

I was for it at the time. After he missed, a punt looks great. But I didn't kill him for it at the time.

 

[RodeoJake]

It is if you miss. If you make it, not so much.

At least you ain't on the fence

 

[Doomsday101]

that would have resulted in a 15 yard field position change.....odds of downing inside the 20 would be very low punting from that position on the field.

Jones is very good about putting it inside the 20 and only has 2 punts for touchbacks on the season. I think the odds of putting them inside the 20 is better than going for it on 4th and long or trying a 58 yarder

 

[blueblood70]

can we stop looking back, Caroll made several mistakes including also going for a long FG I rather have Garett being aggressive then not..he felt every point would be critical and went for it..move on...I saw that god over at Bama make few..noones perfect..

LETS MOVE FORWARD..STOP NIT POICKING A PLAYOFF WIN..

WE WON SO TO THE OP NO

 

[DallasDomination]

I hated the call because how our defense was playing. But honestly he wanted to put points on the board. Cant blame him for that.

 

[DandyDon52]

If he would have made the kick this post would not have even started. Maher has proven he can make that kick so why not try.

well at the time it was happening I was saying no just punt to my tv lol. it just depends on the situation and the tone of the game.
But with our defense, it is better to not put them in a bad situation, and let them dominate the other team.
It is also mental, good for us if the kick is made, good for opponent if it is missed or blocked.

also should we now try fg's from 62 yards on reg basis, since he has made one?
I dont think so , people say it shows confidence in him, but it also can have a negative effect on him if he misses.
Better to not set him up for failure from way out unless time is up in half or game. Then it doesnt matter if he misses.

I am now curious to see if this issue comes up in rams game , and how it turns out.
Giving the rams a short field wont be good.
That drive for fg gave seattle a mental boost going into halftime, and they actually won the 2nd half 16-14
had they got a td instead of a fg on that drive, they might be playing in the div round instead of Dallas.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

replace with whom? please provide options instead of just pointing to problems..... if you don't have a better option, then remain quiet.

You should know this already. Wentz.