What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

[FanofJerry]

This is my opinion/take on this topic. If you have a QB1 and be still has playing years left then I like the idea of having a developmental guy. I like what Dallas has done with the Lance trade and the Milton trade. I don’t want to spend a 2022 1st rounder on a QB or a 2025 1st on a QB. I rather trade a 4th and a 5th for developmental guys if we have an entrenched starter. Like it or not, and I don’t like it, but Dak is entrenched as the starter for 25,26 and maybe 27. I like gambling away later picks, 4-7 rounds, on a QB as opposed to taking a 1st round QB. I want rounds 1-3 to help the 2025 team. Lance was a bust and I’m cool with that because we had an entrenched starter. If Milton is bust I’m cool with that because we have an entrenched starter. When we don’t have an entrenched starter then I’m wanting a 1st round pick to be used. JMHO

Definitely. Dak is too solid a QB to waste valuable picks on a QB chase, on a team that's not trying to win the SB.

Sure, you can say if we aren't trying to win why does it matter if we waste valuable picks on a QB chase?

 

[Captain-Crash]

I hope we never look for new qb's. What if we get an average guy and he's better than dak? Think of the years we pissed away. I rather pretend that dak is the best QB ever born. I love chasing4.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

and a O line that could not protect him

As often happens, if one team is dominant in the trenches they win. Don't tell Jerry, apparently it's a freaking well guarded secret.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Yeah, we won so many SBs with Romo and Prescott!!

the best is yet to come!!!

 

[Sheepherder]

the best is yet to come!!!

the best is yet to come!!!

With the Joneses running the show? When was the last time they had good offense and good defense while in the same season. I can't even remember.

 

[plymkr]

With the Joneses running the show? When was the last time they had good offense and good defense while in the same season. I can't even remember.

1995

 

[Wildcat711]

The odds of landing a franchise QB in the first round is less than 50/50.

So you are saying a pretty good chance?

Draft QB's for 2 or 3 years and.. bang.. you have a franchise guy.. lets do that then.

 

[FanofJerry]

2014?

 

[KJJ]

So you are saying a pretty good chance?

Draft QB's for 2 or 3 years and.. bang.. you have a franchise guy.. lets do that then.

Does less than 50/50 sound like a pretty good chance? The chances of landing a franchise QB in the first round are probably no better than 30-40%. I wouldn’t do what you’re suggesting. You could be swinging and missing for the next decade.

 

[Wildcat711]

Does less than 50/50 sound like a pretty good chance?

yep.. I'm working on the theory that you are saying 40-45%?

Otherwise Im sure you would have said.. 30% or lower.

 

[FanofJerry]

Does less than 50/50 sound like a pretty good chance? The chances of landing a franchise QB in the first round are probably no better than 30-40%. I wouldn’t do what you’re suggesting. You could be swinging and missing for the next decade.

Again, SB winning QB, not franchise.

 

[Wildcat711]

Does less than 50/50 sound like a pretty good chance? The chances of landing a franchise QB in the first round are probably no better than 30-40%. I wouldn’t do what you’re suggesting. You could be swinging and missing for the next decade.

We have been swinging and missing for far longer than a decade.. (not sure we have even been swinging).. 40% sounds damn good to me.

So are you saying don't draft a QB in the 1st round?

 

[KJJ]

yep.. I'm working on the theory that you are saying 40-45%?

Otherwise Im sure you would have said.. 30% or lower.

Even 40-45% isn’t very good.

 

[KJJ]

Again, SB winning QB, not franchise.

You need a franchise QB to win a SB these days.

 

[KJJ]

We have been swinging and missing for far longer than a decade.. (not sure we have even been swinging).. 40% sounds damn good to me.

So are you saying don't draft a QB in the 1st round?

We didn’t swing and miss with our last QB. The Cowboys only had 2 QBs win SBs. I’m not saying don’t draft a QB in the first round. The odds of landing a franchise QB after the first round is a real crapshoot.

 

[FanofJerry]

You need a franchise QB to win a SB these days.

Gotta keep the standard this board holds our QB to consistent

 

[Wildcat711]

We didn’t swing and miss with our last QB. The Cowboys only had 2 QBs win SBs. I’m not saying don’t draft a QB in the first round. The odds of landing a franchise QB after the first round is a real crapshoot.

Im kinda lost now.. you were saying that drafting a franchise QB in the first round is less than 50% but more like 30-40%.

If thats true.. I would start drafting QB's because those numbers sound great to me.

and I would suggest we didn't "swing" for our current QB.. or the one before that.

 

[KJJ]

Im kinda lost now.. you were saying that drafting a franchise QB in the first round is less than 50% but more like 30-40%.

If thats true.. I would start drafting QB's because those numbers sound great to me.

I said less than 50/50 and narrowed it down for you. Anything under 50% isn’t good because every time you swing and miss it sets you back at the very least 2-3 years. You can’t keep wasting picks on QBs in the first round and build a great team. Glad you don’t run the team.

 

[Wildcat711]

I said less than 50/50 and narrowed it down for you. Anything under 50% isn’t good because every time you swing and miss it sets you back at the very least 2-3 years. You can’t keep wasting picks on QBs in the first round and build a great team. Glad you don’t run the team.

Im glad you're glad.. isn't much chance of me running the team.. lol

All Im saying is your numbers sound good to me.. and I have no idea what you are suggesting about how else you should go about it.. as you said its a crap shoot after round 1.

We haven't even TRIED to "swing" for a QB since Aikman.. it hasn't gotten us very far.

 

[KJJ]

All Im saying is your numbers sound good to me.. and I have no idea what you are suggesting about how else you should go about it.. as you said it’s a crap shoot after round 1.

Those aren’t just my numbers. Those are the odds many who cover the NFL give for landing a franchise QB in the first round. Drafting a QB is a crapshoot in the top 10. Go through the first round of the draft, primarily the top 10 and see all the first round QB busts.