What Happened to Julius?

[AbeBeta]

For those wondering what is "wrong" with Julius, here's some interesting data regarding when he gets the ball.

2004

1st Down 94-355, YPC = 3.78, % total carries 48%, %yards 43%
2nd Down 79-369, YPC = 4.67, % total carries 40%, %yards 45%
3rd Down 22-91, YPC = 4.14, % total carries 11%, %yards 11%
4th Down 2-4, YPC = 2.00, % total carries 1%, %yards <1%

2005

1st 148-546, YPC = 3.69, % total carries 58%, %yards 55%
2nd 93-369, YPC = 3.97, % total carries 36%, %yards 37%
3rd 13-50, YPC = 3.85, % total carries 5%, %yards 5%
4th 3-28, YPC = 9.33, % total carries 1%, %yards 3%

2006

1st 146-566, YPC = 3.88, % total carries 65%, %yards 65%
2nd 75-298, YPC = 3.97, % total carries 34%, %yards 34%
3rd 3-13, YPC = 4.33, % total carries 1%, %yards 1

What is happening? The most important trend here is that Julius isn't getting the ball on 2nd down as much as before. He was at 40.1% in 2004 and is at 33.5% in 2006. Also, important, but reflecting fewer carries overall is that he rarely gets the ball on 3rd down.

In 2004, JJ did serious damage on 2nd and 3rd downs. This year, we've used him less in that role. He's had 2/3rds of his runs on first and is having his best statistical year running on 1sts (albeit not a huge difference with prior years)

MBIII? He's had 50% of his carries on 2nd and 3rd - and he's awesome on those downs. (5.8 YPC).

This is less a case of JJ not performing and more a case of using him differently.

 

[theogt]

abe, I'm with you on Julius, but I'm finding it harder and harder every week to not think that Marion deserves the majority of carries. He's making plays nearly every time he touches the ball.

 

[Rampage]

from what ive seen this year and what i saw at the meadowlands lastnight, marion is the better runningback

 

[MC KAos]

id say mb3 is more reliable cuz he is more consistent that julius. However JJ has a higher peak than mb3, if that makes any sense.

 

[AbeBeta]

from what ive seen this year and what i saw at the meadowlands lastnight, marion is the better runningback

The point is that we see Marion carrying the ball in situations where a back will be more productive. Backs do better on 2nd down and in some 3rd down situations.

Want more?

JJ gets 30% of his carries in the 1st quarter, 23% in the 2nd, 28% in the 3rd, and 19% in the 4th.

MBIII? 6% in the 1st. 26% in the 2nd, 30% 3rd, 39% 4th.

Again, MBIII is getting the ball in advantageous situations. He's going against defenses that are worn down.

I'm not saying MBIII isn't great but we have to temper our evaluation of him in the context of his performances. Expecting that he'd do the same as the feature back would be unreasonable.

 

[Rampage]

The point is that we see Marion carrying the ball in situations where a back will be more productive. Backs do better on 2nd down and in some 3rd down situations.

Want more?

JJ gets 30% of his carries in the 1st quarter, 23% in the 2nd, 28% in the 3rd, and 19% in the 4th.

MBIII? 6% in the 1st. 26% in the 2nd, 30% 3rd, 39% 4th.

Again, MBIII is getting the ball in advantageous situations. He's going against defenses that are worn down.

I'm not saying MBIII isn't great but we have to temper our evaluation of him in the context of his performances. Expecting that he'd do the same as the feature back would be unreasonable.

stop making excuses for jones. remember who puts barber in the gamer in those situations? yep coach parcells because he trusts barber more than "bust" jones

 

[Doomsday]

Julius seems to just run full speed through the hole, he doesnt set up is blocks well or have the patience to let things develop. The screen pass in the 4th quarter was a good example of that, if he would of slowed up just a bit and let his 2 lead blockers do their job he could of bounced it outside and had a chance to take it to the house. Honestly I think he is more suited for the Denver offense where Shanahan wants them to make one cut and go.

 

[Eddie]

I don't know ... what happened to Julius? He's about 100 yards from the 1000 mark, and will probably finish the season somewhere around 1200 yards.

Is that a bad thing???

 

[Sasquatch]

The point is that we see Marion carrying the ball in situations where a back will be more productive. Backs do better on 2nd down and in some 3rd down situations.

Want more?

JJ gets 30% of his carries in the 1st quarter, 23% in the 2nd, 28% in the 3rd, and 19% in the 4th.

MBIII? 6% in the 1st. 26% in the 2nd, 30% 3rd, 39% 4th.

Again, MBIII is getting the ball in advantageous situations. He's going against defenses that are worn down.

I'm not saying MBIII isn't great but we have to temper our evaluation of him in the context of his performances. Expecting that he'd do the same as the feature back would be unreasonable.

Excellent analysis. I think Bill should keep playing these guys as he has throughout the season.

 

[AbeBeta]

stop making excuses for jones. remember who puts barber in the gamer in those situations? yep coach parcells because he trusts barber more than "bust" jones

Well, I can see that you are less interested in an intelligent discussion than I am.

 

[silver]

me thinks mb3 deserves to start and play the majority of the game. having said that however, if it aint broke why fix it. we're winning and don't need to tinker with the offense.

 

[dogunwo]

The point is that we see Marion carrying the ball in situations where a back will be more productive. Backs do better on 2nd down and in some 3rd down situations.

Want more?

JJ gets 30% of his carries in the 1st quarter, 23% in the 2nd, 28% in the 3rd, and 19% in the 4th.

MBIII? 6% in the 1st. 26% in the 2nd, 30% 3rd, 39% 4th.

Again, MBIII is getting the ball in advantageous situations. He's going against defenses that are worn down.

I'm not saying MBIII isn't great but we have to temper our evaluation of him in the context of his performances. Expecting that he'd do the same as the feature back would be unreasonable.

Stop it! How dare you throw facts into a discussion? Whats wrong with you, you wanna sound intelligent or something?


I wish people would stop with wanting MB3 to start. Stop trying to fix something that doesnt need fixing right now.

 

[MrMom]

Is that a bad thing???

116 carries

383 yards

1 touchdown

That's what Jones is sporting over the last 7 games. Something is up. Just adds to his very average 3.3 per carry average on the year.

I think placing Barber in the starter's role will definitely help this team. Get the more productive back in there, and maybe light a fire under Jones.

 

[Rampage]

we need to trade julius or draft a real running back

 

[Maikeru-sama]

me thinks mb3 deserves to start and play the majority of the game. having said that however, if it aint broke why fix it. we're winning and don't need to tinker with the offense.

Since the Turkey Game that has been the case. Troy Aikman also pointed this out during the game yesterday.

- Mike G.

 

[vta]

Am I the only one who thinks Jones has changed? When he first came, he was lightning, stopping people in their tracks and racking up 190+ yard games. Yeah he was a bit injury prone, but he was different.

I think Parcells got him running conservative and afraid to fumble, which is sad, because he was exciting to watch.

Barber is awesome. A tough runner who manages to get somoething out of nothing... anyone know his negative yards stats? Probably not much if any. But I still miss the way Jones used to be.

 

[L-O-Jete]

What I don't get is we batter the D with our "HR threat" and when they are tired we come in with our battering ram. Shouldn't it be the other way around???

 

[AbeBeta]

What I don't get is we batter the D with our "HR threat" and when they are tired we come in with our battering ram. Shouldn't it be the other way around???

Kind of. But MBIII is a better blocker in the passing game so he's a better fit in aspects of that 3rd down role.

 

[Rack]

For those wondering what is "wrong" with Julius, here's some interesting data regarding when he gets the ball.

2004

1st Down 94-355, YPC = 3.78, % total carries 48%, %yards 43%
2nd Down 79-369, YPC = 4.67, % total carries 40%, %yards 45%
3rd Down 22-91, YPC = 4.14, % total carries 11%, %yards 11%
4th Down 2-4, YPC = 2.00, % total carries 1%, %yards <1%

2005

1st 148-546, YPC = 3.69, % total carries 58%, %yards 55%
2nd 93-369, YPC = 3.97, % total carries 36%, %yards 37%
3rd 13-50, YPC = 3.85, % total carries 5%, %yards 5%
4th 3-28, YPC = 9.33, % total carries 1%, %yards 3%

2006

1st 146-566, YPC = 3.88, % total carries 65%, %yards 65%
2nd 75-298, YPC = 3.97, % total carries 34%, %yards 34%
3rd 3-13, YPC = 4.33, % total carries 1%, %yards 1

What is happening? The most important trend here is that Julius isn't getting the ball on 2nd down as much as before. He was at 40.1% in 2004 and is at 33.5% in 2006. Also, important, but reflecting fewer carries overall is that he rarely gets the ball on 3rd down.

In 2004, JJ did serious damage on 2nd and 3rd downs. This year, we've used him less in that role. He's had 2/3rds of his runs on first and is having his best statistical year running on 1sts (albeit not a huge difference with prior years)

MBIII? He's had 50% of his carries on 2nd and 3rd - and he's awesome on those downs. (5.8 YPC).

This is less a case of JJ not performing and more a case of using him differently.

So let me get this straight... it's cuz he's not getting the ball on 2nd down?


So on 1st and 3rd downs he's not allowed to find the hole and explode through it? He can only do that on 2nd downs? Oh... ok.

 

[HDC]

I agree that MBIII is getting more 2nd and 3rd down calls and doing a lot with them. However, I think there is a difference in JJ's running technique. Remember Bill's saying he wanted JJ to "take on" the safety rather than trying to outrun him wide? Well, I think JJ's long runs have been eliminated this season because he runs straight at the safety. If he would make just a little move, I think his yards would go way up.