We had a very good season in 16 but 17 looks a lot tougher on paper. Granted it's early and we don't know what is going to happen with the roster but here is what we think we know so far:
1. Romo is gone. Overall strength of QB position just declined.
It doesn't matter if Dak is healthy. If Dak plays better than last year, then the overall QB position has improved. If he plays worse, then the overall QB position has declined. This isn't like WR where you have more than 1 WR playing.
2. First place schedule = tougher road
You can never really tell what the schedule is like until you actually play the schedule. We only play 2 different teams than the Eagles, Giants and Skins play. So the 'tougher schedule' will depend on each of those 2 teams and how they improve or regress going into next year.
3. We appear to be losing several significant starters/role players: Church, Wilcox, Leary. Carr, Mo, Durant, McFadden, Williams, McClain and Free the turnstile is still around.
4. We won't be big players in Free agency.
I don't want us to be players in FA. We'll get replacements for these players. Leary for example can already be replaced by Collins who is a better run blocker and has more upside than Leary. The others we'll have to see where they go and who replaces them.
5. We are drafting late so we will be getting what is left in each round.
Just like we drafted late in 2013 and picked up Frederick who is arguably the best center in the league. Or we drafted early to get Claiborne and he's never come close to playing up to his draft pick (and he was rated on many boards as the #1 defensive player in the draft).
We drafted late in 2010 and got....Dez Bryant.
I don't like what I am seeing so far. Hopefully Tapper, Jaylon and Lawrence are healthy this year and Heath becomes a viable starter.
We are thin at RB and one or two injuries could really derail this season. Teams have film on Dak and will try to make him do things he isn't as good at doing. 10 and 6 might be hard to attain this year.
Dak has film on teams and can use that to get better at what teams are trying to do. The only team that gave Dak fits is the Giants. The other teams struggled against Dak because the only thing that seemed to work was these very exotic blitz looks and so few teams show them these days because of the hurry up offenses. So trying to go into exotic blitz looks when you don't typically practice them is something teams don't feel comfortable in doing.
And a year means that the coaching staff should get more comfortable with Dak and what he can do and design an offense to fit what he does best and shy away from his weaknesses. Not to mention that EE is likely to just get better and another year will help Dak and Dez be better on the same page.
I don't think the Giants are better than us. And I think in all likelihood, if you look at the history of FA, their defense will get much worse and I don't see Eli getting better and he was awful last season.
The Skins are now a mess, they lost McVay who is a brilliant play designer and hopefully the refs catch on to Josh Norman holding every play and Jamison Crowder offensive PI'ing every play.
The Eagles still have a very unproven QB and HC and still have a ton of personnel issues due to the Chip Kelly years. Their defense is really nice, but with defenses in the NFL, they usually don't last that long.
YR