CFZ Why I believe there's no way this is a tear down-rebuild off-season

[Reid1boys]

I dont believe their biggest issue is intelligence.

It's arrogance. They have far too much belief in themselves to run this team.

wait, I thought we had that other guy in the background that does everything????? which is it?

 

[Creeper]

We are only a month into what is a full six months of the NFL‘s 2024 off-season calendar, and already many Cowboys fans are jumping to conclusions that may not be true. After Jerry’s infamous “All In” comments, many expected big changes in how this team approached the off-season. They of course haven’t surfaced.

And after the disappointing inactivity of this front office early in free agency, the loss of multiple FA starters to other teams, and a seeming willingness to let Dak Prescott play 2024 without a new contract or extension, some fans are seeing this as a “tear down and rebuild”. They see these signs as the team stripping it all down for a new QB, new HC, and rebuilt roster for 2025. In other words, some are seeing all this inactivity as a bigger plan to just clear the decks and start over.

I say there’s no way this FO is doing a tear down-rebuild. Why? Two reasons:

1. In the Jerry Jones era since 1989, this front office has only done two deliberately planned rebuilds: One under Jimmy Johnson from 1989-1992 and the second under Bill Parcells from 2003-2006. The Jones FO has NEVER done a rebuild without a strong HC in charge because they can’t do it. (Anyone who says 2016 was a rebuild- it was an accident- not planned)
2. Jerry and Stephen Jones literally do NOT know how to build a championship contending roster in the cap era. They have never done it. If they could do it, they would have already done it.

I of course could be wrong. Maybe JJ and SJ are spending this off-season just planning a complete re-tooling of this team’s future including a new QB and HC for 2025. But I don’t think so.

In fact, I predict this front office is planning on continuing their some old off-season approach of going cheap in FA, put all your improvement chips on the draft, and at the last minute re-sign the same QB that has gone 36-15 the last 3 regular seasons. I think that is a big mistake and one that will produce the same results we’ve been getting which is a WC playoff win every 4-5 years at best.

I understand why some fans are saying, “Big changes are coming.” I’m saying expect to see more of the same. I don’t like that and I hope I’m wrong. But why would we think the Jones boys suddenly “get it”, when we have three decades of evidence that say otherwise. Since SJ got a bigger say in what happens around here, when was the last big off-season “gamble“ this FO took?

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

I completely agree. I do not see this as a tear down of the team. I think this is just more of what we have seen from Jerry and the Cowboys front office for years. They have refused to sign top free agents for years and now it seems like they are actually doubling down on that. Incompetence is not a plan.

While we are all focused in on Jerry's "all in" comments, we are forgetting about Jerry's "there will be accountability" comments. Does Jerry want us to believe the fault of the loss to Green Bay belongs with Stephon Gilmore? Dorance Armstrong? Dante Fowler? Michael Gallup (who had the best game as a WR that day)? And even if we believed that, then firing those players is only part of the problem. The other part is replacing them with better players. Where and when does that happen? It is not going to happen and we all know that. This is 2017 all over again. Dallas will search the scrap heaps and find guys to replace the players we lost, but they will all have flaws and none will be as good as what we lost.

If anyone thinks the draft is the answer I suggest trying all the draft simulators a few hundred times. One thing becomes clear very quickly, given all the holes in the lineup (DT, OT, C, LB, RB, Edge) there is no way all those holes get filed with quality players from the draft. We may get 2 filled if we are lucky. After that we will get players who need time to develop or who may never develop.

 

[Verdict]

We are only a month into what is a full six months of the NFL‘s 2024 off-season calendar, and already many Cowboys fans are jumping to conclusions that may not be true. After Jerry’s infamous “All In” comments, many expected big changes in how this team approached the off-season. They of course haven’t surfaced.

And after the disappointing inactivity of this front office early in free agency, the loss of multiple FA starters to other teams, and a seeming willingness to let Dak Prescott play 2024 without a new contract or extension, some fans are seeing this as a “tear down and rebuild”. They see these signs as the team stripping it all down for a new QB, new HC, and rebuilt roster for 2025. In other words, some are seeing all this inactivity as a bigger plan to just clear the decks and start over.

I say there’s no way this FO is doing a tear down-rebuild. Why? Two reasons:

1. In the Jerry Jones era since 1989, this front office has only done two deliberately planned rebuilds: One under Jimmy Johnson from 1989-1992 and the second under Bill Parcells from 2003-2006. The Jones FO has NEVER done a rebuild without a strong HC in charge because they can’t do it. (Anyone who says 2016 was a rebuild- it was an accident- not planned)
2. Jerry and Stephen Jones literally do NOT know how to build a championship contending roster in the cap era. They have never done it. If they could do it, they would have already done it.

I of course could be wrong. Maybe JJ and SJ are spending this off-season just planning a complete re-tooling of this team’s future including a new QB and HC for 2025. But I don’t think so.

In fact, I predict this front office is planning on continuing their some old off-season approach of going cheap in FA, put all your improvement chips on the draft, and at the last minute re-sign the same QB that has gone 36-15 the last 3 regular seasons. I think that is a big mistake and one that will produce the same results we’ve been getting which is a WC playoff win every 4-5 years at best.

I understand why some fans are saying, “Big changes are coming.” I’m saying expect to see more of the same. I don’t like that and I hope I’m wrong. But why would we think the Jones boys suddenly “get it”, when we have three decades of evidence that say otherwise. Since SJ got a bigger say in what happens around here, when was the last big off-season “gamble“ this FO took?

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

This scenario is entirely possible. In fact, if you use past history as a guide to what to expect in the future, this scenario is highly likely.

I am of the opinion that the organization is seriously contemplating changes. I think the following factors lend at least some hope that the Cowboys are contemplating changes coming up:

1. I think the Cowboys would hold their nose and re-sign Dak if they could but I think Dak won’t let that happen. I think Dak’s demands will exceed any reasonable cost/benefit analysis as it pertains to cap hit vs. production. This is the single greatest factor in why I don’t think the Cowboys will re-sign Dak this offseason.

2. The Cowboys saw this current situation on the horizon last year and knowing how badly Dak and his agent bent the Cowboys over last offseason they hedged their bets with Lance.

3. If Dak is holding them over a barrel again (as I suspect he might be) the Cowboys would unlikely have any hesitation in leaving Dak with fewer options as a post June 1 cut. In fact they could wait until training camp or even bench him if they choose to as a middle finger to Dak.

4. In spite of the forgoing, the Cowboys need to get through this draft to see if they can get a Dak replacement on board. If teams know the Cowboys are making a move to draft a QB that intel hurts the Cowboys. That’s why I think the Cowboys are really holding these cards tight to the vest.

 

[Verdict]

I completely agree. I do not see this as a tear down of the team. I think this is just more of what we have seen from Jerry and the Cowboys front office for years. They have refused to sign top free agents for years and now it seems like they are actually doubling down on that. Incompetence is not a plan.

While we are all focused in on Jerry's "all in" comments, we are forgetting about Jerry's "there will be accountability" comments. Does Jerry want us to believe the fault of the loss to Green Bay belongs with Stephon Gilmore? Dorance Armstrong? Dante Fowler? Michael Gallup (who had the best game as a WR that day)? And even if we believed that, then firing those players is only part of the problem. The other part is replacing them with better players. Where and when does that happen? It is not going to happen and we all know that. This is 2017 all over again. Dallas will search the scrap heaps and find guys to replace the players we lost, but they will all have flaws and none will be as good as what we lost.

If anyone thinks the draft is the answer I suggest trying all the draft simulators a few hundred times. One thing becomes clear very quickly, given all the holes in the lineup (DT, OT, C, LB, RB, Edge) there is no way all those holes get filed with quality players from the draft. We may get 2 filled if we are lucky. After that we will get players who need time to develop or who may never develop.

I think you are correct. It is unlikely that all of these holes will be filled with a known quantity or a high draft pick. That’s another reason why the tea leaves say we are drafting a QB in the upcoming draft and Dak has one foot out the door already. Nothing else really makes a lot of sense.

 

[Bobhaze]

This scenario is entirely possible. In fact, if you use past history as a guide to what to expect in the future, this scenario is highly likely.

I am of the opinion that the organization is seriously contemplating changes. I think the following factors lend at least some hope that the Cowboys are contemplating changes coming up:

1. I think the Cowboys would hold their nose and re-sign Dak if they could but I think Dak won’t let that happen. I think Dak’s demands will exceed any reasonable cost/benefit analysis as it pertains to cap hit vs. production. This is the single greatest factor in why I don’t think the Cowboys will re-sign Dak this offseason.

2. The Cowboys saw this current situation on the horizon last year and knowing how badly Dak and his agent bent the Cowboys over last offseason they hedged their bets with Lance.

3. If Dak is holding them over a barrel again (as I suspect he might be) the Cowboys would unlikely have any hesitation in leaving Dak with fewer options as a post June 1 cut. In fact they could wait until training camp or even bench him if they choose to as a middle finger to Dak.

4. In spite of the forgoing, the Cowboys need to get through this draft to see if they can get a Dak replacement on board. If teams know the Cowboys are making a move to draft a QB that intel hurts the Cowboys. That’s why I think the Cowboys are really holding these cards tight to the vest.

Good thoughts here.

As I said in an earlier post, if I was Dak, I would absolutely want out of Dallas. He won’t say that of course but if he was truly serious about a ring, I think he would demand a trade. He’s not as bad as some fans here think but sometimes after failing in the playoffs multiple times, it’s time to move on. Kind of like Don Meredith (who’s in the ROH retired for that very reason- good reg season QB but never had much success in the playoffs)

Back in Feb I thought trading Dak to Pittsburgh would have made some sense but I suspect his agent is advising him to stick it out for monetary reasons. (Despite their brag talk about “not setting the market, the Jones boys are an easy target for an agent like France. JJ and SJ are terrible with a capital T on contract negotiations)

Dak’s recent legal question mark also complicates this whole situation. I think he may hope to make 2024 his last year in Big D but he’s caught in this no man’s land scenario and there’s no easy way out.

 

[goshan]

We are only a month into what is a full six months of the NFL‘s 2024 off-season calendar, and already many Cowboys fans are jumping to conclusions that may not be true. After Jerry’s infamous “All In” comments, many expected big changes in how this team approached the off-season. They of course haven’t surfaced.

And after the disappointing inactivity of this front office early in free agency, the loss of multiple FA starters to other teams, and a seeming willingness to let Dak Prescott play 2024 without a new contract or extension, some fans are seeing this as a “tear down and rebuild”. They see these signs as the team stripping it all down for a new QB, new HC, and rebuilt roster for 2025. In other words, some are seeing all this inactivity as a bigger plan to just clear the decks and start over.

I say there’s no way this FO is doing a tear down-rebuild. Why? Two reasons:

1. In the Jerry Jones era since 1989, this front office has only done two deliberately planned rebuilds: One under Jimmy Johnson from 1989-1992 and the second under Bill Parcells from 2003-2006. The Jones FO has NEVER done a rebuild without a strong HC in charge because they can’t do it. (Anyone who says 2016 was a rebuild- it was an accident- not planned)
2. Jerry and Stephen Jones literally do NOT know how to build a championship contending roster in the cap era. They have never done it. If they could do it, they would have already done it.

I of course could be wrong. Maybe JJ and SJ are spending this off-season just planning a complete re-tooling of this team’s future including a new QB and HC for 2025. But I don’t think so.

In fact, I predict this front office is planning on continuing their some old off-season approach of going cheap in FA, put all your improvement chips on the draft, and at the last minute re-sign the same QB that has gone 36-15 the last 3 regular seasons. I think that is a big mistake and one that will produce the same results we’ve been getting which is a WC playoff win every 4-5 years at best.

I understand why some fans are saying, “Big changes are coming.” I’m saying expect to see more of the same. I don’t like that and I hope I’m wrong. But why would we think the Jones boys suddenly “get it”, when we have three decades of evidence that say otherwise. Since SJ got a bigger say in what happens around here, when was the last big off-season “gamble“ this FO took?

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

It's not.

 

[McKDaddy]

I dont believe their biggest issue is intelligence.

It's arrogance. They have far too much belief in themselves to run this team.

But part of intelligence is recognizing when you don't understand something or that something is off in how you view the problem when your solutions don't work.

No doubt they are arrogant. Just saying the wall doesn't care about your flaws, it just hands out pain when you hit it.

 

[chuck520]

Betcha Gallup goes somewhere and has a nice year.

Gallup cant get separation

 

[CowboyFrog]

We are only a month into what is a full six months of the NFL‘s 2024 off-season calendar, and already many Cowboys fans are jumping to conclusions that may not be true. After Jerry’s infamous “All In” comments, many expected big changes in how this team approached the off-season. They of course haven’t surfaced.

And after the disappointing inactivity of this front office early in free agency, the loss of multiple FA starters to other teams, and a seeming willingness to let Dak Prescott play 2024 without a new contract or extension, some fans are seeing this as a “tear down and rebuild”. They see these signs as the team stripping it all down for a new QB, new HC, and rebuilt roster for 2025. In other words, some are seeing all this inactivity as a bigger plan to just clear the decks and start over.

I say there’s no way this FO is doing a tear down-rebuild. Why? Two reasons:

1. In the Jerry Jones era since 1989, this front office has only done two deliberately planned rebuilds: One under Jimmy Johnson from 1989-1992 and the second under Bill Parcells from 2003-2006. The Jones FO has NEVER done a rebuild without a strong HC in charge because they can’t do it. (Anyone who says 2016 was a rebuild- it was an accident- not planned)
2. Jerry and Stephen Jones literally do NOT know how to build a championship contending roster in the cap era. They have never done it. If they could do it, they would have already done it.

I of course could be wrong. Maybe JJ and SJ are spending this off-season just planning a complete re-tooling of this team’s future including a new QB and HC for 2025. But I don’t think so.

In fact, I predict this front office is planning on continuing their some old off-season approach of going cheap in FA, put all your improvement chips on the draft, and at the last minute re-sign the same QB that has gone 36-15 the last 3 regular seasons. I think that is a big mistake and one that will produce the same results we’ve been getting which is a WC playoff win every 4-5 years at best.

I understand why some fans are saying, “Big changes are coming.” I’m saying expect to see more of the same. I don’t like that and I hope I’m wrong. But why would we think the Jones boys suddenly “get it”, when we have three decades of evidence that say otherwise. Since SJ got a bigger say in what happens around here, when was the last big off-season “gamble“ this FO took?

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

100%

 

[BrassCowboy]

With Jerry, you are most definitely correct but at this team and our peril.

It is only hope that we, and yeah myself included, are clinging into when you are talking about rebuilding, but like every other year we see the same thing next year and years to come

 

[DallasEast]

I dont believe their biggest issue is intelligence.

It's arrogance. They have far too much belief in themselves to run this team.

It is a combination of both. Jerry Jones can make an argument for business intelligence. However, there are far more intelligent football management candidates than his son or him.

I doubt anyone can make an argument stating Jerry and Stephen Jones are not arrogant. Both came into the National Football League unqualified for the positions Jones game themselves.

Both have demonstrated flexibility in firing and hiring front office personnel, coaching staff, scouts, etc., but have been intractable in doing the same to themselves. Not being a general manager does not diminish Jerry Jones power as an owner. He does not lose any profitability. In fact, he stands to profit more by freeing up more time for non-football management planning and decision-making (this logic defeats the greed argument as well). Stephen Jones is the franchise's chief operating officer. A more qualified replacement would not make him any less powerful within the Dallas Cowboys organization either. Heck. He would have more opportunities to speak at rodeo press conferences if he were no longer director of player development.

Forget about all the decades of questionable football decisions, etc., for a moment. The previous paragraph alone is a prime example of unmitigated arrogance in itself.

Edit: Meant to type 'director of player development' instead of 'COO'. Corrected post to that effect after the fact.

 

[Pentagruel]

You could be right but I think their moves don’t entirely line up with that this year. They have the means to re-sign a lot of the players they are letting go but doing so would require multi-year investments for several of them. I see them leaving an opening for a reset if this next year turns into a disaster with damn near everyone off the books, including QB in 2025. Maybe they still end up re-signing Dak and of course CD and Parsons and rebuilding around those three but they would do it on fresh contracts with no money yet kicked down the road and a new coaching staff. If they were genuinely competing then I don’t think they would have left themselves this many holes to patch. I think a soft reset is probably a wise choice and it keeps open the possibility of blowing the whole thing up next year too if something drastic happens.

 

[bandfan]

If they are assessing potential alternatives to Dak Prescott, that is prudent. If it’s a matter of not knowing what they want to do, that’s concerning. I thought they’d extend Dak to put them in a position to sign FAs to shore up position groups they feel need improvement. Since they have not done that, obviously they have a different plan. I hope they have a plan.

When Jerry tells his plan everyone on this board gets mad. When he stays quiet about his plan? Everyone on this board gets mad...

 

[Jfconrow]

Jerry doesn't want a rebuilding season, he's never been okay with that. I'm not sure how much of it is optics, but he wants a competitive team for fans to watch and he wants to win. I did like the Parcel's rebuild. I could see Dak playing out his contract and I see them resigning Lamb. They can wait until next year to resign Parsons. I think they've got to fix the OL in the draft. If they don't find a superstar in round 1 I'd rather they try to trade for a next year's pick.

If they do want to blow up the team, now is a good time to do it with McCarthy and Dak in contract years. I think they should rebuild the OL (LT or C/OG, maybe both) Then I'd look for talent on defense, a DE (So Parson's doesn't have to play DE or as a possible replacement for Lawrence) or a MLB. With the other picks I'd grab a mid round RB, DT, and fill any other holes they have. If they let Dak and McCarthy go, having a down year and two firsts next year is they best they can do. That's also why I would fix the OL, if they pick a new QB next year or if Lance can take over, a good OL will help out the new QB. I think they would like to get back to having a QB on a rookie contract. They can always play defense and run the ball.

 

[KJJ]

We lost a fair bit from 2000 to 2001. Also when Parcells took over in 03.

Actually Parcells kept most of the players when he first took over in 2003 because he said he wanted to see what we had. We started moving on from some after that season but nothing like what we’ve lost this offseason. We needed to move on from some of those players. We’ve lost 6 starters and some key role players in just over a week. We could possibly lose Gilmore which would be our 7th starter.

 

[MikeT22]

I dont believe their biggest issue is intelligence.

It's arrogance. They have far too much belief in themselves to run this team.

Also ego. Jerry didn’t hire coaches like Gailey, Campo, Wade, Garrett because he thought they were the best out there. He hired them because they were happy to get a HC gig and would put up with Jerry controlling and meddling in everything.

That’s why I can’t get too excited with a rebuild or soft rebuild. Unless Jerry and Stephen do a 180 degree about face, they aren’t going to replace MM with a quality HC, much less empower him.

Also doubt in the next few years they go all in on trying to find a franchise QB. Have only drafted a QB in the first three rounds once in 30 years, and not in the first since Aikman.

Mainly they have no idea how to build and certainly won’t step back and hire a quality GM.

 

[CWR]

wait, I thought we had that other guy in the background that does everything????? which is it?

I do have to wonder how he handles some of the Jones moves or lack there of. I wonder if he ever loses his mind or he just goes along. I suspect the later otherwise he wouldn't be here.

 

[jmj055]

We are only a month into what is a full six months of the NFL‘s 2024 off-season calendar, and already many Cowboys fans are jumping to conclusions that may not be true. After Jerry’s infamous “All In” comments, many expected big changes in how this team approached the off-season. They of course haven’t surfaced.

And after the disappointing inactivity of this front office early in free agency, the loss of multiple FA starters to other teams, and a seeming willingness to let Dak Prescott play 2024 without a new contract or extension, some fans are seeing this as a “tear down and rebuild”. They see these signs as the team stripping it all down for a new QB, new HC, and rebuilt roster for 2025. In other words, some are seeing all this inactivity as a bigger plan to just clear the decks and start over.

I say there’s no way this FO is doing a tear down-rebuild. Why? Two reasons:

1. In the Jerry Jones era since 1989, this front office has only done two deliberately planned rebuilds: One under Jimmy Johnson from 1989-1992 and the second under Bill Parcells from 2003-2006. The Jones FO has NEVER done a rebuild without a strong HC in charge because they can’t do it. (Anyone who says 2016 was a rebuild- it was an accident- not planned)
2. Jerry and Stephen Jones literally do NOT know how to build a championship contending roster in the cap era. They have never done it. If they could do it, they would have already done it.

I of course could be wrong. Maybe JJ and SJ are spending this off-season just planning a complete re-tooling of this team’s future including a new QB and HC for 2025. But I don’t think so.

In fact, I predict this front office is planning on continuing their some old off-season approach of going cheap in FA, put all your improvement chips on the draft, and at the last minute re-sign the same QB that has gone 36-15 the last 3 regular seasons. I think that is a big mistake and one that will produce the same results we’ve been getting which is a WC playoff win every 4-5 years at best.

I understand why some fans are saying, “Big changes are coming.” I’m saying expect to see more of the same. I don’t like that and I hope I’m wrong. But why would we think the Jones boys suddenly “get it”, when we have three decades of evidence that say otherwise. Since SJ got a bigger say in what happens around here, when was the last big off-season “gamble“ this FO took?

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

Two year rebuild with the hope of drafting Arch Manning

 

[DallasEast]

Also doubt in the next few years they go all in on trying to find a franchise QB. Have only drafted a QB in the first three rounds once in 30 years, and not in the first since Aikman.

And Quincy Carter was that single quarterback. He was arguably rated by draft gurus fourth round or lower.

Jones did not have a first round pick that particular draft. It has always made me wonder if Jones would have drafted a quarterback first round that draft after Aikman's retirement. Then again, his pick WAS Carter, so I do not have much confidence in whomever he would have chosen in that what if scenario anyway.

 

[baltcowboy]

We are only a month into what is a full six months of the NFL‘s 2024 off-season calendar, and already many Cowboys fans are jumping to conclusions that may not be true. After Jerry’s infamous “All In” comments, many expected big changes in how this team approached the off-season. They of course haven’t surfaced.

And after the disappointing inactivity of this front office early in free agency, the loss of multiple FA starters to other teams, and a seeming willingness to let Dak Prescott play 2024 without a new contract or extension, some fans are seeing this as a “tear down and rebuild”. They see these signs as the team stripping it all down for a new QB, new HC, and rebuilt roster for 2025. In other words, some are seeing all this inactivity as a bigger plan to just clear the decks and start over.

I say there’s no way this FO is doing a tear down-rebuild. Why? Two reasons:

1. In the Jerry Jones era since 1989, this front office has only done two deliberately planned rebuilds: One under Jimmy Johnson from 1989-1992 and the second under Bill Parcells from 2003-2006. The Jones FO has NEVER done a rebuild without a strong HC in charge because they can’t do it. (Anyone who says 2016 was a rebuild- it was an accident- not planned)
2. Jerry and Stephen Jones literally do NOT know how to build a championship contending roster in the cap era. They have never done it. If they could do it, they would have already done it.

I of course could be wrong. Maybe JJ and SJ are spending this off-season just planning a complete re-tooling of this team’s future including a new QB and HC for 2025. But I don’t think so.

In fact, I predict this front office is planning on continuing their some old off-season approach of going cheap in FA, put all your improvement chips on the draft, and at the last minute re-sign the same QB that has gone 36-15 the last 3 regular seasons. I think that is a big mistake and one that will produce the same results we’ve been getting which is a WC playoff win every 4-5 years at best.

I understand why some fans are saying, “Big changes are coming.” I’m saying expect to see more of the same. I don’t like that and I hope I’m wrong. But why would we think the Jones boys suddenly “get it”, when we have three decades of evidence that say otherwise. Since SJ got a bigger say in what happens around here, when was the last big off-season “gamble“ this FO took?

Again, I hope I’m wrong.

The more I think about about it, I believe Stephen. The Cowboys say they want to pay 4 players and build around them. Diggs, Dak, Parsons, and CeeDee I tend to believe that plan. Dak has the right to ask for top of the line quarterback salary because he is a top 8 quarterback. CeeDee is young and is a top 3 wideout just beginning his prime. Parsons is considered one of the top 3 defensive players not just pass rusher. All three are top 20 players in the NFL by any measure. Diggs already got his money. The Joneses believe these 4 can carry us and 36-15 is the proof.