CFZ Why it’s fools gold to count wins on the schedule before games are played

[Bobhaze]

I would think that everybody here knows that absolutely nothing matters except gettin in the playoffs and winning more than one game in them.

Nobody counts on anything here. Nobody would have picked us beating both SB teams with a backup QB.......nobody

None of us know as much as we pretend to on this forum!

 

[Vegas_Cowboy]

Injuries alone are good reason to never to look ahead and start counting wins and losses. Every team in the NFL in one 1 or 2 key injuries away from being a different team.

 

[TequilaCowboy]

I agree.....the difference between being 2-4 and 5-1 in this league at this point is less than a TD in most cases. FG at end of games being the difference are so common. There are no super teams who dominate opponents weekly. All teams have weaknesses and the ball is weird shaped.

 

[Motorola]

I would not be surprised if the e-girls lose their next two.

But you would be if the Cowboys did...

 

[Bobhaze]

But you would be if the Cowboys did...

Not really.

 

[Corso]

I would think that everybody here knows that absolutely nothing matters except gettin in the playoffs and winning more than one game in them.

Nobody counts on anything here. Nobody would have picked us beating both SB teams with a backup QB.......nobody

I dunno. I think being able to watch a season of football matters.
I like watching football.

 

[shabazz]

I dunno. I think being able to watch a season of football matters.
I like watching football.

I love watching football.....i just don't count on my team mattering at the end of the season.,lol

 

[Corso]

I love watching football.....i just don't count on my team mattering at the end of the season.,lol

I can understand that.

 

[zerofill]

You can't count it as a win... But barring massive injuries. With the defense playing well, and that $40million QB we have... we should be able to win everything all the way to the next meeting with the Eagles.

Now if we lose to the Lions though, when we haven't been destroyed by injuries... call it a wrap.

 

[JD_KaPow]

People in general underrate the likelihood of improbable things happening.

Let's suppose a team was overwhelmingly favored in each of their next 11 games, say an 80% likelihood of winning each one. Even then, you wouldn't expect them to go undefeated over that stretch. You'd expect them to go 9-2, and the likelihood of winning all of them would be under 9%. And of course that doesn't even account for things like injuries that could make them a lesser team for part or all of that stretch.

Upsets happen, a lot.

 

[Motorola]

Not really.

It's possible.
Alluding back to your opening thread post...the NFL is the most volitale sports league.
For example - the Giants: five straight double-digit losing seasons 2017-2021.
Now - tied for 2nd best record in the league at 5-1 with the Bills and Vikings..losing only to the Cowboys.
On a 3-game winning streak since - beating two teams that were penciled in as guaranteed Ls before each game.
Giants rematch with the Cowboys is 5 weeks away; here are their opponents along the way:
@ Jaguars
@ Seahawks
Bye week
Texans
Lions
On Thanksgiving Day, will the GMen suit up to play at AT&T Stadium with a 5-4 \ 7-2 \ or - EGADS - a 9-1 record?
Stay tuned.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Hairless and brainless. Just shuddup and act like bad guys are chasing you.

 

[nobody]

Well done Hazey.

Lions offense is #2 in NFL. Egirls and Viqueens barely got by them.

Good news is they are dead last in the league on defense .

If Offense ranking took into account only scoring and wasn't based mostly on just yards, I'd be more worried. Yards don't win. Scoring wins.

 

[glimmerman]

Well done Hazey.

Lions offense is #2 in NFL. Egirls and Viqueens barely got by them.

Good news is they are dead last in the league on defense .

I didn’t know there offense was 2.. Hope our Defense is ready. Stop the run..

 

[baltcowboy]

Swift has missed the last two games. He is on the same level as Barkley as a runner. Swift makes the Lions go.

 

[Corso]

Hairless and brainless. Just shuddup and act like bad guys are chasing you.

Write him an 8 figure check and he'll oblige.
You don't even need to show him a script.
That check got 8 figures.

 

[Motorola]

If Offense ranking took into account only scoring and wasn't based mostly on just yards, I'd be more worried. Yards don't win. Scoring wins.

I didn’t know there offense was 2.. Hope our Defense is ready. Stop the run..

Keep seeing all these positive posts about Detroit's offense...ignoring how bad they are on the other side of the ball.
In the Lions' only win - at home - the Commanders scored 27 points.
DET opponents have scored 28, 29, 38, and 48 in their four losses.
Lions defense ranked LAST - 32 out of 32 - in yardage and points allowed a third of the ve way into the 2022 season...and they've played only five games (28 of the other 32 games have played six games).

 

[john van brocklin]

The NFL is the most unpredictable league in all of sports. Upsets are as common as a sunrise each week. I always laugh when I see people here saying “Looking at the schedule, I see 9-10 more wins”…or something similar. It’s fool’s gold.

The truth is, every opponent on our schedule is a potential win or loss. Don’t believe that? Look at some of the upsets that have happened in just the first 35% of the season:

• Week 1- Bears 19-niners 10. I’m sure we all saw that coming, right?
• Week 2- Dolphins 42-ravens 38.
• Week 2- Jags 24- colts 0
• Week 3- Dolphins 21-bills 19.
  
• Week 3- Broncos 11-niners 10
• Week 3- Colts 20-chiefs 17.
  
• Week 5- giants 27-packers 22.
• Week 6- falcons 28-niners 14.
• Week 6- jets 27-packers 10.
• Week 6- Steelers 20-Bucs 18.
• Week 6- Seahawks 19-cards 9.
• Week 6- giants 24-ravens 20.

The NFL is not college football where picking winners weeks or months in advance can happen. In the pros, the old “on any given Sunday” applies every single week. Truth is we’ve played 35% of the schedule, not 95%. All NFL teams evolve. Some get better from one week to the next. The talent margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL are very thin.

The Cowboys are still developing as a team. We can’t look at the schedule and think a game like the lions Sunday is a given win. I expect the Cowboys to win Sunday against the lions, but also expect it to be a war.

So true Bob, so true.....

 

[plasticman]

On the flipside, don't count those losses before the season either.

How many of us in August predicted that the Cowboys would defeat both Super Bowl teams the previous season with a backup quarterback? I'm not raising my hand.

Successfully predicting the outcome of games before the season would require the ability to predict injuries, rate of improvement, referee trends, kicker's confidence levels, the bounces of every ball as well as events that are usually deemed, well, unpredictable.

 

[Motorola]

On the flipside, don't count those losses before the season either.

How many of us in August predicted that the Cowboys would defeat both Super Bowl teams the previous season with a backup quarterback? I'm not raising my hand.

Successfully predicting the outcome of games before the season would require the ability to predict injuries, rate of improvement, referee trends, kicker's confidence levels, the bounces of every ball as well as events that are usually deemed, well, unpredictable.

Why would anyone in August predict the Cowboys backup QB would be starting in games - let alone contribute to wins - against last season's Super Bowl teams - when the starting QB wasn't injured in August ...therefore not preventing him from starting the season?


Come on, dude.