CFZ Why it’s fools gold to count wins on the schedule before games are played

[glimmerman]

Keep seeing all these positive posts about Detroit's offense...ignoring how bad they are on the other side of the ball.
In the Lions' only win - at home - the Commanders scored 27 points.
DET opponents have scored 28, 29, 38, and 48 in their four losses.
Lions defense ranked LAST - 32 out of 32 - in yardage and points allowed a third of the ve way into the 2022 season...and they've played only five games (28 of the other 32 games have played six games).

Our Defense is looking for redemption so let’s hold them to 3 points and with Dak being back in let’s score in the 30’s. But do it with our formula of running the ball. Elliot and Pollard over 200 rushing.

 

[Diehardblues]

If Offense ranking took into account only scoring and wasn't based mostly on just yards, I'd be more worried. Yards don't win. Scoring wins.

What places you in more positions to score?

There’s a reason the NFL has always used Total Yards as official measurement for team rankings.

 

[Reality]

The NFL is the most unpredictable league in all of sports. Upsets are as common as a sunrise each week. I always laugh when I see people here saying “Looking at the schedule, I see 9-10 more wins”…or something similar. It’s fool’s gold.

The truth is, every opponent on our schedule is a potential win or loss. Don’t believe that? Look at some of the upsets that have happened in just the first 35% of the season:

• Week 1- Bears 19-niners 10. I’m sure we all saw that coming, right?
• Week 2- Dolphins 42-ravens 38.
• Week 2- Jags 24- colts 0
• Week 3- Dolphins 21-bills 19.
  
• Week 3- Broncos 11-niners 10
• Week 3- Colts 20-chiefs 17.
  
• Week 5- giants 27-packers 22.
• Week 6- falcons 28-niners 14.
• Week 6- jets 27-packers 10.
• Week 6- Steelers 20-Bucs 18.
• Week 6- Seahawks 19-cards 9.
• Week 6- giants 24-ravens 20.

The NFL is not college football where picking winners weeks or months in advance can happen. In the pros, the old “on any given Sunday” applies every single week. Truth is we’ve played 35% of the schedule, not 95%. All NFL teams evolve. Some get better from one week to the next. The talent margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL are very thin.

The Cowboys are still developing as a team. We can’t look at the schedule and think a game like the lions Sunday is a given win. I expect the Cowboys to win Sunday against the lions, but also expect it to be a war.

I have said that many times over the years. Everyone talks about "hard" or "easy" schedules before the season starts as if every team consists of the same players, coaches and injuries they had when last season ended.

Things change and bad teams improve and good teams regress. Add to that the injury variable, players changing teams, coaches changing, etc. and every year ends up with several surprise teams both for good and bad reasons.

 

[Established1971]

The NFL is the most unpredictable league in all of sports. Upsets are as common as a sunrise each week. I always laugh when I see people here saying “Looking at the schedule, I see 9-10 more wins”…or something similar. It’s fool’s gold.

The truth is, every opponent on our schedule is a potential win or loss. Don’t believe that? Look at some of the upsets that have happened in just the first 35% of the season:

• Week 1- Bears 19-niners 10. I’m sure we all saw that coming, right?
• Week 2- Dolphins 42-ravens 38.
• Week 2- Jags 24- colts 0
• Week 3- Dolphins 21-bills 19.
  
• Week 3- Broncos 11-niners 10
• Week 3- Colts 20-chiefs 17.
  
• Week 5- giants 27-packers 22.
• Week 6- falcons 28-niners 14.
• Week 6- jets 27-packers 10.
• Week 6- Steelers 20-Bucs 18.
• Week 6- Seahawks 19-cards 9.
• Week 6- giants 24-ravens 20.

The NFL is not college football where picking winners weeks or months in advance can happen. In the pros, the old “on any given Sunday” applies every single week. Truth is we’ve played 35% of the schedule, not 95%. All NFL teams evolve. Some get better from one week to the next. The talent margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL are very thin.

The Cowboys are still developing as a team. We can’t look at the schedule and think a game like the lions Sunday is a given win. I expect the Cowboys to win Sunday against the lions, but also expect it to be a war.

cliff notes on this post: ....."on any given Sunday"

 

[mrmojo]

Yup fools gold, people are already predicting Eagles to go on a big run........personallyI don't think their that good....you just don't know week to week, injuries happen, slumps happen, a lot of game still to be played.

 

[Motorola]

Our Defense is looking for redemption so let’s hold them to 3 points and with Dak being back in let’s score in the 30’s. But do it with our formula of running the ball. Elliot and Pollard over 200 rushing.

Don't know if the Dallas D can pitch a TD shutout -especially with Detroit coming off a bye - but I agree with you on the 1-2 punch running back attack (letting Prescott ease his way back into action).

 

[Bobhaze]

I have said that many times over the years. Everyone talks about "hard" or "easy" schedules before the season starts as if every team consists of the same players, coaches and injuries they had when last season ended.

Things change and bad teams improve and good teams regress. Add to that the injury variable, players changing teams, coaches changing, etc. and every year ends up with several surprise teams both for good and bad reasons.

Great point. The Cowboys have 14 players on the current 53 man roster that were not on the team last year. That’s over 25% of the roster being changed in one year. Every year is a new team,

 

[Motorola]

I have said that many times over the years. Everyone talks about "hard" or "easy" schedules before the season starts as if every team consists of the same players, coaches and injuries they had when last season ended.

Things change and bad teams improve and good teams regress. Add to that the injury variable, players changing teams, coaches changing, etc. and every year ends up with several surprise teams both for good and bad reasons.

Great point. The Cowboys have 14 players on the current 53 man roster that were not on the team last year. That’s over 25% of the roster being changed in one year. Every year is a new team,

Exhibit A: the New York Giants.
3-13, 5-11, 4-12, 6-10, 4-13 under three head coaches.
4th new HC for 2022 season...5-1 record, which is tied for 2nd best in the league.

 

[nobody]

What places you in more positions to score?

There’s a reason the NFL has always used Total Yards as official measurement for team rankings.

How did that number one offense last year help the Cowboys in the last half of the season last year or in the playoffs? Scoring more than the other team is what matters. Preventing them from scoring matters. Just getting yards? Not quite as important. Stats are just that at the end of the day. They don't win you games or championships.

 

[StarChamber_33]

This list brings back painful memories of me being eliminated from survivor pools this year.

Haha, join the club my friend..

 

[noshame]

Bob
Always enjoy your posts
But where in the heck are you going here?
I look at the schedule and see 8 winnable games left.
Injuries can change that
However if things proceed normally I'll be P-Od if we don't win 8 resulting in a lower seed.
Well coached teams are usually consistent.
Are we not here to discuss these things?

being a die hard fan this team for the last 25 years could be considered pyrite. no?

 

[StarChamber_33]

The NFL is the most unpredictable league in all of sports. Upsets are as common as a sunrise each week. I always laugh when I see people here saying “Looking at the schedule, I see 9-10 more wins”…or something similar. It’s fool’s gold.

The truth is, every opponent on our schedule is a potential win or loss. Don’t believe that? Look at some of the upsets that have happened in just the first 35% of the season:

• Week 1- Bears 19-niners 10. I’m sure we all saw that coming, right?
• Week 2- Dolphins 42-ravens 38.
• Week 2- Jags 24- colts 0
• Week 3- Dolphins 21-bills 19.
  
• Week 3- Broncos 11-niners 10
• Week 3- Colts 20-chiefs 17.
  
• Week 5- giants 27-packers 22.
• Week 6- falcons 28-niners 14.
• Week 6- jets 27-packers 10.
• Week 6- Steelers 20-Bucs 18.
• Week 6- Seahawks 19-cards 9.
• Week 6- giants 24-ravens 20.

The NFL is not college football where picking winners weeks or months in advance can happen. In the pros, the old “on any given Sunday” applies every single week. Truth is we’ve played 35% of the schedule, not 95%. All NFL teams evolve. Some get better from one week to the next. The talent margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL are very thin.

The Cowboys are still developing as a team. We can’t look at the schedule and think a game like the lions Sunday is a given win. I expect the Cowboys to win Sunday against the lions, but also expect it to be a war.

As you've noted, the highly ranked 49ers have been the victim of 3 upsets so far this season, it begs the question: Is this team truly deserving of high praise and these losses are a mere bump in the road, or perhaps they just aren't that good?? Stay tuned..

 

[glimmerman]

Don't know if the Dallas D can pitch a TD shutout -especially with Detroit coming off a bye - but I agree with you on the 1-2 punch running back attack (letting Prescott ease his way back into action).

Yeah I am sure they will be swiping at the hand.

 

[JoeKing]

@Bobhaze you must be a professional buzz killer if you have an issue with looking forward on the schedule and figuring out which games should be wins or losses.

 

[Diehardblues]

How did that number one offense last year help the Cowboys in the last half of the season last year or in the playoffs? Scoring more than the other team is what matters. Preventing them from scoring matters. Just getting yards? Not quite as important. Stats are just that at the end of the day. They don't win you games or championships.

Football is a sum sport so scoring is critical . But scoring can come from the offense , defense and special teams .

Total yards are the official measurement because the more often you move the chains and move the ball down the field the more opportunities you have to score while limiting your opponent more opportunities to score .

The fact total yards is the official measurement isn’t intended to discount scoring totals . They just aren’t used as the official measurement because of other contributing factors like turnovers and other aspects I mentioned in scoring .

I agree that “ just getting yards” isn’t as important as scoring but the point is yards places you in more positions to score and or prevents opponents from scoring.

 

[Diehardblues]

Great point. The Cowboys have 14 players on the current 53 man roster that were not on the team last year. That’s over 25% of the roster being changed in one year. Every year is a new team,

Yea, about the only teams that are consistent playoff contenders from year to year with all of the roster changes have the top QB’s in the league.

 

[nobody]

Football is a sum sport so scoring is critical . But scoring can come from the offense , defense and special teams .

Total yards are the official measurement because the more often you move the chains and move the ball down the field the more opportunities you have to score while limiting your opponent more opportunities to score .

The fact total yards is the official measurement isn’t intended to discount scoring totals . They just aren’t used as the official measurement because of other contributing factors like turnovers and other aspects I mentioned in scoring .

I agree that “ just getting yards” isn’t as important as scoring but the point is yards places you in more positions to score and or prevents opponents from scoring.

My point is that number one this, number one that...it's all stats and those are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Any given Sunday rules the day. It's about scoring and preventing the other team from scoring. W's and L's, not number one this or that.

The Cowboys had the number one offense last year. Did they win the Super Bowl?

 

[Diehardblues]

My point is that number one this, number one that...it's all stats and those are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Any given Sunday rules the day. It's about scoring and preventing the other team from scoring. W's and L's, not number one this or that.

The Cowboys had the number one offense last year. Did they win the Super Bowl?

I understand but what leads you to scoring. How do teams provide themselves more opportunities to score while preventing their opponent less opportunities to score. Those are important factors that lead to scoring.

Having the #1 offense isn’t a sure ingredient to winning a SB. Not if you can’t stop the opponent.

 

[Doomsday101]

The NFL is the most unpredictable league in all of sports. Upsets are as common as a sunrise each week. I always laugh when I see people here saying “Looking at the schedule, I see 9-10 more wins”…or something similar. It’s fool’s gold.

The truth is, every opponent on our schedule is a potential win or loss. Don’t believe that? Look at some of the upsets that have happened in just the first 35% of the season:

• Week 1- Bears 19-niners 10. I’m sure we all saw that coming, right?
• Week 2- Dolphins 42-ravens 38.
• Week 2- Jags 24- colts 0
• Week 3- Dolphins 21-bills 19.
  
• Week 3- Broncos 11-niners 10
• Week 3- Colts 20-chiefs 17.
  
• Week 5- giants 27-packers 22.
• Week 6- falcons 28-niners 14.
• Week 6- jets 27-packers 10.
• Week 6- Steelers 20-Bucs 18.
• Week 6- Seahawks 19-cards 9.
• Week 6- giants 24-ravens 20.

The NFL is not college football where picking winners weeks or months in advance can happen. In the pros, the old “on any given Sunday” applies every single week. Truth is we’ve played 35% of the schedule, not 95%. All NFL teams evolve. Some get better from one week to the next. The talent margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL are very thin.

The Cowboys are still developing as a team. We can’t look at the schedule and think a game like the lions Sunday is a given win. I expect the Cowboys to win Sunday against the lions, but also expect it to be a war.

and the reason I take no game for granted. Within a season losing a game you were favored to win happens all the time, winning games you are supposed to lose again happens all the time. Each game stands on it is own, what your team did last week means nothing heading into the upcoming game.

 

[nobody]

I understand but what leads you to scoring. How do teams provide themselves more opportunities to score while preventing their opponent less opportunities to score. Those are important factors that lead to scoring.

Having the #1 offense isn’t a sure ingredient to winning a SB. Not if you can’t stop the opponent.

Then why are you worried about the Lions offense? They're number two, but aren't a complete team like you stated. It's about matchups. If Dak is healthy and not rusty, the Cowboys should have a great chance of beating them. They have a chance of beating them even if Dak is rusty.