CFZ Why optimistic “best case scenario” thinking is not good for a front office

[FuzzyLumpkins]

“If they all stay healthy, we might be good.”
As fans, we can say “we might be good”. As an NFL GM, you can’t say that if you’re being thorough in preparation for a great season.

Or they think that Waletzko and Farniok can play.

 

[Bobhaze]

June 1st cuts are coming. Not certain if this provides the opportunity for an influx of additional talent. But if there are a potential few good men in the ranks of the unemployed that could add depth and teeth to this team. I am all for this. I agree, Jethro and Little Anus don't need to fall in love with their roster.

offensive guard
wide receiver
linebacker
cornerback

There used to be a term here, perhaps brought to Dallas by Jimmy Johnson.

Churning.

It is not too soon to be churning the chaff off this team and improving.

I have been wrong about this team so many time I cannot count. There are a cast of thousands who post now, or have posted in the past, that can verify my claim to an abysmal record of predicting. But, if the Jones' actually do move and solidify a couple of areas on this team, MY OPINION, this could be a special season.

As a side note, don't take this opinion to Vegas. The opinions in this post are not to be assumed in the same zip code as Reality. The site owner or actuality!

I certainly agree with you that this could be a special season if a couple of roster areas are shored up.

 

[Toro9]

I'm a pessimist. Most of us are. We should be. People suck. GMs are, unfortunately, people

 

[TequilaCowboy]

Let the ones with the rose colored glasses be the fans, like some we have here. REAL GMs should always be looking to improve the team, regardless if they finished 1-16 or 16-1...

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

It all comes from the top, and Jerald is like a little kid with his favorite toy.
He won't change. He's an eternal optimist.

 

[T-RO]

Well, thank you for fighting through this predictably tedious thread to somehow post here.

You are a great contributor and a bright articulate poster, but c'mon, bro.

The Cowboys are flawed, but they've won nearly as many games the past few years as anyone. Whatever we want to say about the Jones family they have dozens of bright people on their staff. That staff is working on this stuff 40-60 hours a week.

These NFL front offices are the equivalent of a mid-sized business with well-paid staff working on this stuff.

You honestly think they the Cowboys haven't invested massive thought about their backups for all positions, probably 4, 5 layers deep? You don't think they evaluate contingency plans of every flavor?

About once a month you have one of these threads where you try to "school the Cowboys front office" on how they should think and work. You don't know what you don't know.

 

[CowboyRoy]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

My concerns as well. FO always has one big blunder and this years its the Oline. which is a complete disaster waiting to happen. For them to think this is a championship level Oline is commical.

Kicker, again they seem to be asleep on.

RB...................i was definitely same way after the draft. I wanted a 4th round Roschon Johnson all around back. but Hunter is growing on me. Were definitely better off than we were last year.

Problem for me is the oline. Its a disaster!!!

 

[CowboyRoy]

Along the lines of adding another offensive lineman, I’m looking into Mekhi Becton and seeing if the Jets would trade him.

I think he’d make a solid option at left or right tackle and potentially left guard. His issue has been health and knee problems.

I’d give Zeke and Maher another shot.

WOW!!! Some of you are hopeless.

Zeke and Maher. LOL

 

[CowboyRoy]

OL might actually be okay. I don't expect Peters back but even without him we have five solid OL. If they all stay healthy, we might be good. Kicker is the big one for me. They must have something in their back pocket and it's probably named Brett Maher. I'd like a new guy but we could do worse than Brett.
RB is less of a concern with the signing of Jones and drafting of Vaughn. Malik Davis is nice to have around too. I'm actually okay with this roster as it stands in May.

Dont kid yourself.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Why is kicker a head scratcher? They will get a kicker.

Its been a complete disaster going back to Garrett.

 

[Diehardblues]

Booger is the eternal optimist, mainly because of ego, and is always going to think he is closer than he is far away.

Pessimists make better GM's because the good ones are always "there is at least one more thing I need to do" oriented.

The owners can afford to be optimists but show me the GM that is, except the one in Dallas.

Preparing for "what can go wrong, will go wrong" is their job. And that is expected for them and no owner wants to know the problem until the solution has been found. That's why they hired a GM.

That "best case scenario" allows those in management to let themselves off the hook. Good managers are never "well, we've done all we can" because there is always at least one more thing that has to be done.

The other issue with Booger is once the season begins, he will only act if the wheels are coming off as they did when they let Bryant go and had to make an in-season trade for Cooper. Sneed, LAR, and Roseman, PHL, looked for those opportunities, they didn't wait for a problem. Upgrading is an around the clock 12 month job.

But the root of the problem with Dallas runs much deeper than that because the Joneses will settle for good enough because good enough gets them what they want, coverage, money and the real prize, that Forbes ranking.

And that’s the core issue with Jethro wearing both hats with owner and GM. It’s a conflict of interest .

The eternal optimism, hype and salesmanship of owner is always going to win out.

 

[CowboyRoy]

You are a great contributor and a bright articulate poster, but c'mon, bro.

The Cowboys are flawed, but they've won nearly as many games the past few years as anyone. Whatever we want to say about the Jones family they have dozens of bright people on their staff. That staff is working on this stuff 40-60 hours a week.

These NFL front offices are the equivalent of a mid-sized business with well-paid staff working on this stuff.

You honestly think they the Cowboys haven't invested massive thought about their backups for all positions, probably 4, 5 layers deep? You don't think they evaluate contingency plans of every flavor?

About once a month you have one of these threads where you try to "school the Cowboys front office" on how they should think and work. You don't know what you don't know.

Wait.............So you think going with the same Oline with one less starter is going to work when it didnt last year? And supposedly the Joneses know something we dont?

How is that going to work?

 

[Jake]

You are a great contributor and a bright articulate poster, but c'mon, bro.

The Cowboys are flawed, but they've won nearly as many games the past few years as anyone. Whatever we want to say about the Jones family they have dozens of bright people on their staff. That staff is working on this stuff 40-60 hours a week.

These NFL front offices are the equivalent of a mid-sized business with well-paid staff working on this stuff.

You honestly think they the Cowboys haven't invested massive thought about their backups for all positions, probably 4, 5 layers deep? You don't think they evaluate contingency plans of every flavor?

About once a month you have one of these threads where you try to "school the Cowboys front office" on how they should think and work. You don't know what you don't know.

I know they haven't built a team capable of getting beyond the divisional round of the playoffs since Jimmy's leftovers retired.

I know I can count on one hand how many playoff games they have won this century.

I know that the same two Jones boys have been running the show that entire time.

I agree, I don't know what I don't know, but I don't have to be an insider to see the results.

 

[Diehardblues]

The Jones boys have been the most reactive front office in the league. Wait until there’s a problem, then overreact (like the WR trades of the past) then can‘t seem to learn proactive is always better than reactive. And when you don’t have to win to keep your job, you tend to over-value your own work.

They have had a better off-season than in years past. But they cannot seriously think this roster is ready for TC or worse, ready for the season.

And then they and all of these fans who buy into the hype will wonder what happened as other teams pass them by. Rinse and Repeat. Don’t believe me just watch.

 

[Diehardblues]

I know they haven't built a team capable of getting beyond the divisional round of the playoffs since Jimmy's leftovers retired.

I know I can count on one hand how many playoff games they have won this century.

I know that the same two Jones boys have been running the show that entire time.

I agree, I don't know what I don't know, but I don't have to be an insider to see the results.

Cowboys have the longest drought in NFL history with 12 consecutive playoff appearances without reaching a championship game.

We don’t have to know more than our front office to critique it anymore than we don’t need to be a mechanic to know when the car needs repair.

 

[Kwyn]

“If they all stay healthy, we might be good.”
As fans, we can say “we might be good”. As an NFL GM, you can’t say that if you’re being thorough in preparation for a great season.

We know Tyron will go down at some point but you can’t have an equal level backup in the wings. Very few rosters can do that. We have traditionally had one of the best lines in the game. It’s something we do well.

I wouldn’t say no to a solid free agent but we’ll have to wait for cuts to see what’s out there.

 

[Diehardblues]

I certainly agree with you that this could be a special season if a couple of roster areas are shored up.

What benefits the Cowboys the most is the NFC is down. Beyond Egirls and SF there are no proven SB contenders.

And with Rodgers and Brady gone there’s no Elite QB in NFC. Unless teams like NY, Det or Sea have improved then we could basically be a top 4 team in NFC again by default.

 

[Bobhaze]

You are a great contributor and a bright articulate poster, but c'mon, bro.

The Cowboys are flawed, but they've won nearly as many games the past few years as anyone. Whatever we want to say about the Jones family they have dozens of bright people on their staff. That staff is working on this stuff 40-60 hours a week.

These NFL front offices are the equivalent of a mid-sized business with well-paid staff working on this stuff.

You honestly think they the Cowboys haven't invested massive thought about their backups for all positions, probably 4, 5 layers deep? You don't think they evaluate contingency plans of every flavor?

About once a month you have one of these threads where you try to "school the Cowboys front office" on how they should think and work. You don't know what you don't know.

Brother T, I’m not trying to “school” anyone. I’m just offering my opinion about the off-season so far. Which I said in the OP has been pretty good so far in my judgment. And btw, no, I know I‘m NOT knowledgeable enough to run an NFL front office. I’m a Cowboys fan with an opinion. And you’re always welcome to disagree.

 

[john van brocklin]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

Hope Will McClay is having a stronger voice this off season.

Hope the Jones ' keep listening to him and following his advise.

 

[Bobhaze]

Hope Will McClay is having a stronger voice this off season.

Hope the Jones ' keep listening to him and following his advise.

Me too. He’s the best voice we have in that room.