CFZ Why optimistic “best case scenario” thinking is not good for a front office

[john van brocklin]

I understand this line of thinking and in theory I agree with the “concept”. Many would assume that we are not set at OG and that more help is needed.

If the Cowboys are COUNTING ON anything out of Tyron, I think that is misguided and poor planning. If he is an afterthought that ends up playing well or a lot then it’s a bonus. I think he’s damn near done as a football player.

What we don’t know is how high the Cowboys are on the depth players on the roster. People were crying last year about the Cowboys not having “anything” behind Tyron, and they clearly did in Tyler Smith (rookie). Some might call that dicey but it was a plan and it worked

Kicker, I agree we need a stud kicker. This is a bit of a head scratcher.

RB—It depends on how the team is approaching the year. If they are planning on Ronald Jones doing anything, I see that as an outright fail. I think Deuce will overperform his draft slot. The question is how effective will Pollard be right out of the gate, and when will he round into top form.
I think how you view the contingency plan is based on what you think of Deuce.

Jason Peters saved their bacon last year.
They really rolled the dice on the oline last year.

 

[LovinItAll]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

I’m not sure what Jones says publicly reflects his view of the roster, what is/isn’t needed, or anything else. He’s in PR mode speaking publicly, and unless you’re inside the very small circle of people privy to insider conversations, there’s exactly no way to know his level of optimism.

 

[T-RO]

Me too. He’s the best voice we have in that room.

Lot of people assume McClay is "the guy."

But we know very little about what really goes on.

Todd Williams...VP of Football Ops...what does he do? How powerful is his voice? Come trade time how much impact does the Director of Pro Scouting have...Alex Loomis? On draft day, what's the Director of College Scouting, Mitch LaPoint up to? What is Stephen's real day-to-day role? Is Jerry still even much involved?

How much sway do the coaches have regarding specific draft picks or trades?

We.Outside.Don't.Know. We only see what they want us to see. And we make lots of presumptions guesses.

 

[Verdict]

Jason Peters saved their bacon last year.
They really rolled the dice on the oline last year.

I don’t think it’s as dire as it was last year. I also think Peters is DONE.

 

[Verdict]

Why is kicker a head scratcher? They will get a kicker.

They haven’t addressed it yet. That’s the head scratcher.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

good write up. not much to disagree with it. I think what people don't want to admit is that we had several holes in the team and its going to be tough to address all of it. I think they did address several key areas, depth at WR, starting CB, DT, roaming LB, TE (due to departure of Schultz), but OL depth is a concern. Kicker is a definite concern and the past two years kickers have cost us at least 3,4 games. I am still scratching my head about the Tampa game. it was surreal. I am not as worried about RB position. most NFL teams don't have a work horse any more and they platoon. I think we have a good platoon, plus a couple of rookies with potential. RB is the easiest position to adjust to in NFL.

with that said, I am not sure what the answer to addressing OL depth is. nothing in FA that you can say, ok, I get this guy and I am good. draft? well, you draft one high, but you leave another hole. we did draft an OL man, but in day 3.

I think this depth at all positions is problem for 30 other teams in the league. maybe even all 32. no team has depth in every position and they have to take some risks. but I am with you, I don't like risking on OL.

 

[buybuydandavis]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

Saleman are convincing when they believe their own hype.
Jerry is totally that guy.

 

[plasticman]

I think this topic is very closely related to the fallacy of acquiring players to "fill a need" rather than improving that particular squad.

For example, if a team really has no legitimate TE and then signs the best veteran free agent to a huge contract, they are still only one play away from being exactly where they were before.

I remember the Cowboys trading for WR Joey Galloway in 2000 specifically to replace Michael Irvin who retired. The trade cost two 1st round picks. Then Jerry signed him to the

2nd highest contract for a WR at the time. Galloway tore up his knee in the first game and was out for the season. His contract was cited for one of the reasons for the demise of the Cowboys under Campo.

Galloway averaged 585 yards and 3 TD's a season for the 4 years he was a Dallas Cowboy.

If the Cowboys had kept their 1st round picks then, the following year, they would have had their choice of Santanna Moss, Reggie Wayne or Chad Johnson.

 

[Toro9]

Let the ones with the rose colored glasses be the fans, like some we have here. REAL GMs should always be looking to improve the team, regardless if they finished 1-16 or 16-1...

Not sure how many of those glasses are floating around. I think we all believe we have the foundations of a capable team... However, there does seem to be a cloud of discontent., If I should be so dramatic. And I shall. What is that? 30 years? Not quite but it's lingering. 40 years without a Super Bowl?

 

[DandyDon52]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

I agree with all but the bit on maher. sure have a competition, but a kicker is a player, and all players have a bad game. and when they do most are excuse
if they have been good, but not maher or a kicker.
I know on 2 of those misses the hold was terrible.
Cd drops a key pass, and he is quickly forgiven, but if a kicker misses a kick people are saying get rid of him!!

But you hit is on the head with the jones boys thinking they are set when they are not really set.
They do their thing, pat themselves on the back, and say what a good job we did this off season !

They forgot that jimmy was never satisfied or set during his whole time here.
But your main point, was well said as usual, and something no one has ever brought up.

I think many fans look at team now and say we are all set !!!!!! lol

 

[DandyDon52]

I think this topic is very closely related to the fallacy of acquiring players to "fill a need" rather than improving that particular squad.

For example, if a team really has no legitimate TE and then signs the best veteran free agent to a huge contract, they are still only one play away from being exactly where they were before.

I remember the Cowboys trading for WR Joey Galloway in 2000 specifically to replace Michael Irvin who retired. The trade cost two 1st round picks. Then Jerry signed him to the

2nd highest contract for a WR at the time. Galloway tore up his knee in the first game and was out for the season. His contract was cited for one of the reasons for the demise of the Cowboys under Campo.

Galloway averaged 585 yards and 3 TD's a season for the 4 years he was a Dallas Cowboy.

If the Cowboys had kept their 1st round picks then, the following year, they would have had their choice of Santanna Moss, Reggie Wayne or Chad Johnson.

yeah that was classic young jerry, impatient, wasnt good at evaluating or picking in the draft ,and then made a horrible deal.
No wr is worth 2 firsts, and a big contract.
Later he made a similar deal with Roy Willams, an aging reciever, for high draft picks, and big contract, and never even came close to earning it.
In fact it was embarassing lol.

back then jerry did his yearly fixes by buying players. And he was a horrible shopper.

 

[Jipper]

It all comes from the top, and Jerald is like a little kid with his favorite toy.
He won't change. He's an eternal optimist.

The DT taken in the first round, the departure of zeke, the departure of Moore, the actual offseason move all say that he may actually be changing....or he's just shutting up....either way the team is doing things differently and I like it

 

[ThreeandOut]

Connor McGovern was the only OL starter they lost last year. I think they can replace him with what they have on the roster. This isn't like losing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson at WR last year.

 

[kevm3]

The Jones boys have been the most reactive front office in the league. Wait until there’s a problem, then overreact (like the WR trades of the past) then can‘t seem to learn proactive is always better than reactive. And when you don’t have to win to keep your job, you tend to over-value your own work.

They have had a better off-season than in years past. But they cannot seriously think this roster is ready for TC or worse, ready for the season.

Yep, we have to 'wait' until our run game gets shut down or Dak gets blasted to the moon for them to realize, "Hey, maybe we should actually have done something about that o-line."

Us not having a kicker is also another huge problem. It's sad, but you can literally see the problems coming, but we have to actually wait until it plays out on the field for the FO to do something about it.

 

[Flamma]

IMO, the Cowboys have had a pretty good off-season so far, especially compared to other recent years where we were way too passive. But despite a good pre-draft period followed by what I think will be a decent draft, this roster is far from being ready to start the season. Sizeable holes remain in the roster at OL, RB and K.

I still have a concern about the Front Office big wigs holding onto a “best case scenario” approach to the roster instead of preparing for a worst case. Jerry has often spoken as if being optimistic is the only way he can see his team. The best GMs in this league don’t look at their current roster and think, “We’re set” or fall into “best case scenario thinking”. They are prepared for the worst.

The Jones boys in recent past have had a bad habit of falling in love with their roster too early instead of looking at it with a wary eye and saying, “We need more depth”. My hope is the roster is a long way from set for TC. Being optimistic in real life is great. Being optimistic as an NFL GM looking at his roster is malpractice. To prepare for a long haul NFL season with a championship as the goal, it requires a guy who thinks, “what happens if…”.

Looking at OL, RB and K, it’s clear more depth is needed. Here’s a look at each position with a wary eye:

• OL- We have a very strong group of starting OL with Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrance Steele when he returns. Tyler Biadasz has become an above average C. But problems exist. Tyron Smith is a once great talent who has missed over 40 games the last 5 years, and as much as I love him is completely unreliable. If we pencil Tyler Smith and Tyron at LG and LT, when (not if) Tyron gets hurt, who goes where? Steele probably won’t be ready in Sept. In other words, holes remain. Maybe Matt Waletzko, Asim Richards and Chuma Edoga can be those OL depth guys we need. But that’s best case scenario stuff. IMO We need another veteran G to shore up this group.
• 
  
• RB- Tony Pollard should be healthy come Sept and I’m genuinely excited about Deuce Vaughn as a Swiss Army knife weapon. Maybe Ronald Jones, Deuce and Malik Davis are enough of a committee to support Pollard. But we can’t leave that to chance. Pollard and Vaughn are similar skill sets. Can Malik Davis be a power runner? Rookie UFA FB Hunter Luepke is intriguing. But we cannot leave all that to best case scenario thinking. More help is needed here. And it can’t be Zeke!
  
  
• K- My approach to this position starts with this: ABBM. (Anyone but Brett Maher) Surely his head case melt down last January has soured this FO once and for all on him. This team needs to bring in 3 Ks for TC and have a serious competition. As long as I never have to see the guy who couldn’t make an XP to save his life last Jan, I will be happy.

Here’s hoping the Jones boys don’t fall in love with this roster before it’s really finished.

Since they are so optimistic, they should run a promotion. Any game lost at home, it's refunded. If the Cowboys don't reach the NFC championship game, all season ticket holders get refunded.

 

[Creeper]

Another thoughtful post. Thanks, Bob.

I think we are all expecting Tyron Smith to get hurt and miss games. If he gets another 8 game injury I think they put him on IR and plan for a future without him. I think they have no worries if the rest of the OL stays healthy, at least with the other 4 positions. But I do not think there is any need to panic just yet. Maybe by the end of training camp they may have to hit the panic button but that is a long way away.

In the meantime, they do have options.

1. Chuma Edoga - He has decent size and he is only 25. That is still young for an OL. He doesn;t have to be great, but if he can be as good as Connor McGovern then they should be fine,
2. Matt Farniok - Since the first time I saw this kid I though he had something. He is going into his 3rd year, about the same time McGovern started to show something. I actually think Farniok is ahead of McGovern. He could come in much improved this year. I think he is a better C than OG but he has potential.
3. Josh Ball - I think this is a long shot. Ball looked slow and weak at RT when he got the chance to play. Maybe he gets stronger but I am pessimistic. Plus, he is still learning and it would be a risk to put him out there with so little experience.
4. Asim Richards - I like the way this kid played in college. He looks the part. He is young but if I were him I would hit the weight room, strengthen my legs, and learn the playbook for the LG position. He could be the surprise of the draft if he moves inside and continues to pound people.
5. Bass and Bostick - two undrafted free agents. Long shots but we have seen some surprises from long shots before.

They just have to get lucky with one or two of these guys and they will be fine. I am cautiously optimistic.

I share your concern about RB though. I think Luepke and Vaughn are gimmick players. Vaughn is not going to play 20 snaps a game. If both of them are active on Sunday it means Dowdle and Davis has failed miserably. But on the other hand, if the OL stays healthy and can open holes in the running game with Steele back, I think Pollard, Davis and Dowdle will find running room.

 

[rambo2]

They haven’t addressed it yet. That’s the head scratcher.

They have one on the roster.

 

[Diehardblues]

You are a great contributor and a bright articulate poster, but c'mon, bro.

The Cowboys are flawed, but they've won nearly as many games the past few years as anyone. Whatever we want to say about the Jones family they have dozens of bright people on their staff. That staff is working on this stuff 40-60 hours a week.

These NFL front offices are the equivalent of a mid-sized business with well-paid staff working on this stuff.

You honestly think they the Cowboys haven't invested massive thought about their backups for all positions, probably 4, 5 layers deep? You don't think they evaluate contingency plans of every flavor?

About once a month you have one of these threads where you try to "school the Cowboys front office" on how they should think and work. You don't know what you don't know.

What we do know is whatever success we have had during the regular season fizzles out in the playoffs as we currently own the futility NFL record of most consecutive playoffs (12) without a championship game appearance.

 

[Diehardblues]

Lot of people assume McClay is "the guy."

But we know very little about what really goes on.

Todd Williams...VP of Football Ops...what does he do? How powerful is his voice? Come trade time how much impact does the Director of Pro Scouting have...Alex Loomis? On draft day, what's the Director of College Scouting, Mitch LaPoint up to? What is Stephen's real day-to-day role? Is Jerry still even much involved?

How much sway do the coaches have regarding specific draft picks or trades?

We.Outside.Don't.Know. We only see what they want us to see. And we make lots of presumptions guesses.

This is exactly right ..

But we can evaluate the results . And we can access what we see and hear publicly from Jethro and Son. The Buck stops with them.

 

[john van brocklin]

I don’t think it’s as dire as it was last year. I also think Peters is DONE.

You are most likely correct on both points...