Why the draft cannot fix every roster hole

[Verdict]

Yea, would lean to staying pat or trading up. My concern now is the Giants have picks 5 and 10. If we traded with Cleveland at 6. Knowing our luck, the Giants would take Styles at 5.

If we trade up for an off ball linebacker in the top 10 that would be borderline idiotic.

IMHO if we trade up it will be for a DE or it won’t happen.

 

[atlantacowboy]

Think it was worse than Diggs' contract?

Bleacher Report this past January called Bland the most overpaid player in the NFL. So, I think they were just referring to 2026 contracts.

 

[morasp]

Yep and this is probably a good example, at least with Philly (I'm not as up to date on Seattles roster configuration), but Philly went out and and went CB/CB in that draft and those guys thrived. It certainly happens where you can hit like that, but what i loved about what Philly did was they already had a proven starter in Slay and brought in another solid veteran in Rodgers on the roster.

They needed CB help, they went out and got it by double dipping in the draft, but it wasn't a 'we need these guys to feast or its a lost season' type of situation. DeJean I think barely played the first few games that year and was brought along super slow. Both were hits but both didn't have to be.

My fear with the Cowboys is they are going to draft a LB high and pencil him in as the solution for week 1. Its that type of situation where I would rather go get a mid tier FA and then draft a LB. Create a true competition in camp and make the position a strength the way Philly did with their CB room instead of being all in a rookie.

I'm hoping they have someone in mind at LB post draft. There's usually a learning curve. Although Schwesinger Seemed to be pretty good early on.

 

[Bobhaze]

Bleacher Report this past January called Bland the most overpaid player in the NFL. So, I think they were just referring to 2026 contracts.

The Bland deal last fall was mystifying. Bland’s best year was aided greatly by having a great pass rush. Since the departure of Parsons his interceptions have dropped off and his foot injuries have turned him into an injury risk.

It seems this organization overvalues people they draft and undervalues people they didn’t. The new contracts for Bland and Ferguson exemplify this. I like those guys ok but they are being paid above their abilities.

Meanwhile we once again hear the annual high and mournful sound of this FO telling us how cap-strapped they are. See above.

 

[blueblood70]

And it's exactly why we don't make posts like this until let's say August maybe two weeks before the season starts and we can see if they somehow stopped the entire offseason after draft day which they won't they didn't last year they went and got George Pickens They made other moves.. They will make more moves before the season starts off the free agent lists that are leftover and they might even make a trade or two we don't know but here we are we keep talking about the offseason as if it just stopped it has not stopped there will be the draft there will be more moves made there will be trades there will be more things and then we can talk about it if there isn't or if it's not good enough..

 

[fivetwos]

Because we are just days away from the last big offseason event that will leave 90% of the roster complete and the last major opportunity to add value to your organization without giving up anything other than money has already happened.

There are still some FAs available that would be noteworthy, but the list is getting slim. There will also be some trade options available, but now you're giving up equal value back to another team as well.

Completely understand that there are still levers Jerry can pull, but the passive approach is what has let this team down for years now. Get your roster mostly set so your coordinators can fill out their playbooks. Get players in here who can start to get to know their teammates and learn the system. Last year it was "dont worry we have guys like Gilmore and Kendricks on speed dial"...but neither happened and both the LB and CB units were disasters with no answers.

While there is still time, I'm not sure Jerry/Stephen deserve benefit of the doubt from fans.....especially considering that they seem to be making some of the same mistakes as years past (non aggressive FA, letting a tag/contract dispute possibly drag into camp, etc.)

The same people say the same thing every year. I’m guilty of it also.

Absent a significant TRADE (which they very much need to stop doing if they are going to still virtually ignore free agency), there is no significant improving after the first few days of free agency.

This team will likely be light yet again on the field if they don’t somehow have a 1975 or 2005 draft. They do it to themselves…put themselves in this position…..and either don’t know any better or don’t care. Potentially both.

 

[75boyz]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

I never get tired of the research based posts backed by factual numbers, Bob.

The fun here will always be in reading the what about the rare outlier takes and the totally homer draft and develop only and keep it status quo free agency type opinions.

Great job as usual.

 

[75boyz]

Because we are just days away from the last big offseason event that will leave 90% of the roster complete and the last major opportunity to add value to your organization without giving up anything other than money has already happened.

There are still some FAs available that would be noteworthy, but the list is getting slim. There will also be some trade options available, but now you're giving up equal value back to another team as well.

Completely understand that there are still levers Jerry can pull, but the passive approach is what has let this team down for years now. Get your roster mostly set so your coordinators can fill out their playbooks. Get players in here who can start to get to know their teammates and learn the system. Last year it was "dont worry we have guys like Gilmore and Kendricks on speed dial"...but neither happened and both the LB and CB units were disasters with no answers.

While there is still time, I'm not sure Jerry/Stephen deserve benefit of the doubt from fans.....especially considering that they seem to be making some of the same mistakes as years past (non aggressive FA, letting a tag/contract dispute possibly drag into camp, etc.)

Very strong and detailed explanation of the Cowboy system of futility.

Nice addition to the OP.

 

[jazzcat22]

The same people say the same thing every year. I’m guilty of it also.

Absent a significant TRADE (which they very much need to stop doing if they are going to still virtually ignore free agency), there is no significant improving after the first few days of free agency.

This team will likely be light yet again on the field if they don’t somehow have a 1975 or 2005 draft. They do it to themselves…put themselves in this position…..and either don’t know any better or don’t care. Potentially both.

Get 4 or 5 picks in the 1st 3 rounds. They can fill out the roster nicely.
12 rookies are not goin to make this team. Though many prefer to gut it and to have them make it.

If you look at the roster. And the FA ‘s they brought in, the trades, and a few of their own the brought back. There really is not a lot of room. Or it can create so,e really good TC competition. Therefore making every one better.
In theory anyway.

No matter what position they draft or more FA’s, or UDFA’s.
No what do they need.

A QB will not overtake spot
Maybe a RB for #3 RB, but don’t see it.
A WR for #5 or more like #6 possibly.
Some OL depth at 8 and 9 maybe 10th spot.
TE for depth, maybe #2.

Defense a different monster
CB yes, with the ones they brought it. need but how many. 1 or 2. Need depth though.
Same for S, and DT. Need depth too.
DE / LB, depends what they are planning. But LB a much bigger need.
This is where we may see 4 to 6 brought in.
However with not that many on the roster right now, it will be hard to say who is out the door.

But how many will they keep at each position is key.

 

[gtb1943]

There's a big reason why the perceived quality of the draft is down this year. Actually, two reasons stemming from the same cause: NIL.

1. More top players have opted to stay in college where they'll get paid, in some cases, a nice tidy sum. There has been a concurrent drop in the number of underclassmen entering the draft dating back to 2022 or so. Which, along with that COVID year, has thinned out the top prospects.

2. And NFL front offices are lamenting this, players are entering at more advanced ages with more attendant wear-and-tear on their bodies. When I went through the list of the top prospective draftees, I was surprised how many of them were around age 24.

The NIL factor is really huge this draft
The kids are playing it smart; they are getting guaranteed MILLIONS now in College. The NFL is a crap shoot. Now the TOP talent will always go early because the first rd up to the middle of it are making enough money that NIL is not that much of a factor. BUT those guys who are borderline first rd are the ones taking the NIL.

 

[Coogiguy03]

They did trade for some very good players.

Best pickup ever was Murray!!

 

[75boyz]

The Bland deal last fall was mystifying. Bland’s best year was aided greatly by having a great pass rush. Since the departure of Parsons his interceptions have dropped off and his foot injuries have turned him into an injury risk.

It seems this organization overvalues people they draft and undervalues people they didn’t. The new contracts for Bland and Ferguson exemplify this. I like those guys ok but they are being paid above their abilities.

Meanwhile we once again hear the annual high and mournful sound of this FO telling us how cap-strapped they are. See above.

Good call on Micah's pressure impact on positional performance.
Not only was this reduced production felt in both Diggs and Blands performance, but Gary's as well in Green Bay.
After Micah got injured Gary did a total disappearing act of zero sacks for 10 weeks straight including playoffs.
22 total pressures in weeks 10 thru 18. 3 games of zero pressures.
He wasn't hurt/injured.
His production was dependent on Micah being on the field. I stopped a debate with another guy here just to move on and not point out these facts.
Well the ultimate news flash here is there ain't no Micah on the other side.

Be prepared when the edge pressure is far below expectations.
AGAIN.

 

[fivetwos]

Get 4 or 5 picks in the 1st 3 rounds. They can fill out the roster nicely.
12 rookies are not goin to make this team. Though many prefer to gut it and to have them make it.

If you look at the roster. And the FA ‘s they brought in, the trades, and a few of their own the brought back. There really is not a lot of room. Or it can create so,e really good TC competition. Therefore making every one better.
In theory anyway.

No matter what position they draft or more FA’s, or UDFA’s.
No what do they need.

A QB will not overtake spot
Maybe a RB for #3 RB, but don’t see it.
A WR for #5 or more like #6 possibly.
Some OL depth at 8 and 9 maybe 10th spot.
TE for depth, maybe #2.

Defense a different monster
CB yes, with the ones they brought it. need but how many. 1 or 2. Need depth though.
Same for S, and DT. Need depth too.
DE / LB, depends what they are planning. But LB a much bigger need.
This is where we may see 4 to 6 brought in.
However with not that many on the roster right now, it will be hard to say who is out the door.

But how many will they keep at each position is key.

I know that’s your hoped for strategy. I can see them dealing backward both times. Not sure if it nets a second, but let’s see. I think it’s fully plausible that someone will want to come up for Simpson at 12 or 20 and they can drop if they like.

My only apprehension with that would be how awful the second and third rounds have been to the people who make the board/decisions!in recent history.

 

[Bobhaze]

If good players are no longer here the obvious question is WHY, right? The short answer is the salary cap. One way or another the salary cap is and has been a continuous issue for the Cowboys. We make poor decisions in paying our own.

V it’s more than just the cap. Some of the players we drafted were not handled well financially when they were here.

What I mean by that is by the third year of a player’s rookie deal, teams should know whether they are working out or not. If they are, extend them early at cheaper prices than waiting.

Most of the time though with their better players, this FO waits and waits, which costs more. They could have signed Dak for lot less on his first deal if they hadn’t waited. Same for his current contract which they way overpaid. They did pay Tyler Smith early which was smart and saved them some cap space. But they usually wait too long.

The Cowboys hang on to players they drafted and like, then balk at paying them market price when the time comes. Good teams decide early what they want to do and then do it.

Waiting is losing is NFL cap management.

 

[TwentyOne]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

The answer is way simpler:

Look at how many first day starters we were able to draft in the last 10 years?

4 or was it 5?

You can build thru the draft. But you have to be good at it. A good draft means that your first and your second round picks are first day starters from the get go.

Can we do that? No. A great draft for us is when we are able to find one good starter. A great Dallas draft is when your premium pick (that should play LT but cant) is playing guard and the rest of the draft is a complete failure.

You cant fill holes by doin that crap year in and year out.

 

[rambo2]

Best pickup ever was Murray!!

They hit a grandslam with Pickens.

 

[ArtClink]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Oops, you mentioned what the best NFL organizations are doing. Why can't this FO copy the actions and strategies used by teams that can actually mk a deep playoff run. I do know that limiting yourself to improving the roster almost exclusively by the draft is the antithesis of what elite organizations are doing.

 

[ArtClink]

Great point about the need for some of those middle round players to be starters. Btw, I count three instead of two Day 3 starters - IF Ryan Flournoy ends up starting this year. That’s obviously to be determined.

Round 2 and 4 have been rough for us this decade. We have one second round starter - Donovan Ezeiruaku from the last six drafts. That has killed us.

The 3rd round has been better but overall our Day 2 picks have really been below average lately. That has to change for us to have a chance to compete again.

Obviously, Flournoy is the future ...

 

[ArtClink]

They hit a grandslam with Pickens.

That remains to be seen. He seems like a psycho to me and he takes games off when he's not "feelin' it". When he's great, he's top shelf, but the Steelers let him go for a reason and I think he represents a bad gamble. But then again, our beloved GM loves to gamble and play fantasy football with his team. Hopefully there's a great linebacker in the draft that has a terrible injury history that Jerry can also gamble on in the 2nd round.

 

[ArtClink]

again?? same topic 10 different ways....lol polls etc redundancy..man This is literally the same topic over and over and over There's 5 months left why do we keep talking about the roster before is finished it is nowhere near complete..UGHH

Thanks for extending the thread.