"Win-or-go-home" from a team point of view

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percyhoward

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Just curious. If you had to win one game, "win or go home", and you could have any QB you wanted, where would Romo be on your list of QB's (1-32)?
It's fun to tackle a question like that, recognizing that it's more art than science.

Active: Rodgers, Brady, PManning, Brees, Romo, Ryan, and Roethlisberger, in that order, with the caveat that I wouldn't be too picky about the order.

That said, there's a great disparity in sample sizes for playoff games. (And I'd use playoff games, because no one has kept track of 99.9% of all the win-or-go-home games that have ever been played.) If you look at QB who have at least 9 games of postseason experience, then Brees and Rodgers are clearly ahead of the pack:

Brees 9g 103.9
Rodgers 9g 103.6
EManning 11g 89.3
PManning 20g 88.4
Brady 24g 87.4
Flacco 13g 86.2
Roethlisberger 14g 83.7

The obvious problem is, Brady and Peyton have a lot more games than most of the others. And on the other end, Romo and Ryan haven't had enough games to qualify. With history showing us that the ratings regress toward the mean as the sample grows, is there any reason to look only at postseason anyway, instead of just looking at the player's entire career of games? Who knows? There are QB, with a large enough body of postseason work to be able to judge, and who were great over their careers, who have performed appreciably better than average in the playoffs.

All-time: Starr, Montana, and Warner. All won multiple passing titles, all appeared in at least 10 postseason games, and all had playoff passer ratings well above the average rating of their era. Then you have to mention Ken Anderson, who had all of that and then some, but only appeared in 6 postseason games.

Mark Sanchez has a career playoff rating of 94.3, and Archie Manning has no career playoff rating. Based on the available postseason evidence, who's the better "playoff QB?"

But it's still fun to do.
 

ufcrules1

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Glad you answered that question but shocked you have Romo top 5 in that situation. Especially after clearly being the weakest link on our team by totally self imploding against the Commanders in our lone win or go home game. Ok, I'm not really shocked.. I know you are a big Romo fan.
 

percyhoward

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Glad you answered that question but shocked you have Romo top 5 in that situation. Especially after clearly being the weakest link on our team by totally self imploding against the Commanders in our lone win or go home game. Ok, I'm not really shocked.. I know you are a big Romo fan.
We were fortunate to even have a win-or-go-home game. History says this team would have finished around 4-12 both years without the season performance of the pass offense.

And I'm not a Ryan fan, but I do take into account the lousy performances of the Falcon's pass defense in their win-or-go-home games.
 

KJJ

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OK then, answer this question:

Does your QB play and that of your opponents pass defense have a direct correlation?

As we have seen lately, they don’t have to compensate for a whole season, just the playoffs.

So yes a truly great defense could carry an average QB through 3-4 games.

A great defense is not going to be able to carry an average QB through 3-4 games in postseason in this era. There hasn't been an average QB win a SB since 2003 when Brad Johnson was carried by the Bucs running game and defense. Every SB winning QB since 2004 is building a HOF resume except for Joe Flacco and he could possibly finish his career with a HOF resume if he wins 2 more SB's. The last 6 SB's have come down to QB's having to make plays to pull the game out in the final minutes and an average QB won't be able to get it done in that situation. They need to be in a situation where they can manage the game not have to win it.
 

KJJ

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OK then, answer this question:

Does your QB play and that of your opponents pass defense have a direct correlation?

There's a correlation but as I've stated the "performance" of your QB is the most important element in winning games. Even the great 85 Bears defense couldn't stop one of the great pure passers in NFL history. It's hard for any pass defense to defense a great throw or CATCH see the 81 NFC title game.
 

superpunk

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It's funny....Peyton Manning has a whole litany of playoff games he's lost while posting a 90+ rating, throwing no picks, etc.

The year he won the super bowl, his highest QB rating was 81. He threw 3 TDs and 7 INTs. Crazy how he carried his team for years and couldn't win...when he actually won it he was entirely carried by his defense.
 

Doomsday101

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It's funny....Peyton Manning has a whole litany of playoff games he's lost while posting a 90+ rating, throwing no picks, etc.

The year he won the super bowl, his highest QB rating was 81. He threw 3 TDs and 7 INTs. Crazy how he carried his team for years and couldn't win...when he actually won it he was entirely carried by his defense.

Yeah pretty amazing. lol
 

KJJ

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In the 81 NFC title game the Cowboys pass defense came up with 3 int's off Joe Montana. Montana finished that game with a passer rating of only 81.4 but the game came down to one pass the Cowboys pass defense couldn't defend with less than a minute to play. They had pressure all over Montana and the secondary couldn't have covered Clark much better than they did but a pass and catch was pulled off that the Cowboys defense couldn't defend. Danny White outplayed Montana most of that game. His completion percentage was higher than Montana's and his passer rating was much higher at 98.1 but his performance was marred by an ill-timed turnover. The performance of a QB takes into account everything including making plays in critical situations and not turning the ball over when games are on the line.
 

Doomsday101

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In the 81 NFC title game the Cowboys pass defense came up with 3 int's off Joe Montana. Montana finished that game with a passer rating of only 81.4 but the game came down to one pass the Cowboys pass defense couldn't defend with less than a minute to play. They had pressure all over Montana and the secondary couldn't have covered Clark much better than they did but a pass was pulled off that the Cowboys defense couldn't defend. Danny White outplayed Montana most of that game. His completion percentage was higher than Montana's and his passer rating was much higher at 98.1 but his performance was marred by an ill-timed turnover. The performance of a QB takes into account everything including making plays in critical situations and not turning the ball over when games are on the line.


Yeah what was the name of that play????? Oh yeah "The Catch" not the throw. Clark has a bit to do with that play.
 

KJJ

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Yeah what was the name of that play????? Oh yeah "The Catch" not the throw. Clark has a bit to do with that play.

Part of a pass defense is defending a receiver. LOL It was the throw and the catch that made that play happen. Not even heavy pressure on the QB by a 6' 9" defender and good coverage could prevent that play.
 

superpunk

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Yeah pretty amazing. lol
And devastating to anyone who attempts to argue otherwise.

Peyton is a great QB. I believe someone (can't remember who) said earlier that he was THE reason the Colts won games. Yet you'd still have people coming in and trashing him before he won a super bowl.

See Peyton was always great. It was just always 100% on him. And noone can handle that in a team game like football. The great irony is that in order to win, and put all his doubters in check - Peyton actually played some of the worst football of his life and was CARRIED by his defense for four games. He literally silenced his critics by playing some of the worst playoff football of his career.

Everyone likes to use Dilfer as the ultimate bus driver, but during his SB run he threw more TDs and less INTs than Peyton Manning did in his.
 

Doomsday101

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Part of a pass defense is defending a receiver. LOL It was the throw and the catch that made that play happen. Not even heavy pressure on the QB by a 6' 9" defender and good coverage could prevent that play.

Defense was there Walls was not going to outjump Clark. Very good play by Montana but that pass menas nothing if clark does not haul it in and get his feet in bounds it would be just an incomplete. Amazing how that works.
 

superpunk

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Defense was there Walls was not going to outjump Clark. Very good play by Montana but that pass menas nothing if clark does not haul it in and get his feet in bounds it would be just an incomplete. Amazing how that works.
Kind of like how last season goes alot different if Dez gets a finger in bounds...
 

Doomsday101

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Kind of like how last season goes alot different if Dez gets a finger in bounds...

No doubt, if Dez can somehow manage to come down in bounds the Cowboys chances of making post season would have been greater but his finger went out of bounds and despite a great effort by Romo and Dez it just did not pan out.
 

KJJ

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It was proven against the great 85 Bears defense arguably the greatest defense in NFL history that a great performance by a very elite QB can do them in. The Bears held Marino to a completion percentage of only 51.9% but there were certain laser throws Marino made they simply couldn't stop no matter how much pressure they got or how good the coverage was. Marino hit on 3 TD passes in that game the Bears defense couldn't stop. It wasn't a poor performance by the defense it was a great performance by one of the great QB's in NFL history. A great QB can beat any defense when they're on.
 

Doomsday101

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It was proven against the great 85 Bears defense arguably the greatest defense in NFL history that a great performance by a very elite QB can do them in. The Bears held Marino to a completion percentage of only 51.9% but there were certain laser throws Marino made they simply couldn't stop no matter how much pressure they got or how good the coverage was. Marino hit on 3 TD passes in that game the Bears defense couldn't stop. It wasn't a poor performance by the defense it was a great performance by one of the great QB's in NFL history. A great QB can beat any defense when they're on.

and yet the 85 Bears destroyed Montana. You are picking 1 game on the season where the Bears went 15-1 they faced other great QB and destroyed them. Talk about spinning. lol
 

KJJ

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Defense was there Walls was not going to outjump Clark. Very good play by Montana but that pass menas nothing if clark does not haul it in and get his feet in bounds it would be just an incomplete. Amazing how that works.

The defense was there it was a pass and CATCH that couldn't be prevented because it was a great play one of the greatest ever. It takes a throw and a catch to pull off a completion. To prevent a completion a defense has to either sack the QB, force a bad throw or defend the pass. Some passes can't be defended no matter how great the coverage we saw that on The Catch. It takes the QB and the receiver to pull the play off both have to do their job. The Pats defense did everything but put Eli on the ground and stop Tyree from making his great catch. Was it poor pass defense or a great play?
 

Doomsday101

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The defense was there it was a pass and CATCH that couldn't be prevented because it was a great play one of the greatest ever. It takes a throw and a catch to pull off a completion. To prevent a completion a defense has to either sack the QB, force a bad throw or defend the pass. Some passes can't be defended no matter how great the coverage we saw that on The Catch. It takes the QB and the receiver to pull the play off. Both have to do their job. The Pats defense did everything but put Eli on the ground and stop Tyree from making his great catch. Was it poor pass defense or a great play?

I agree both have to do the job not one. Matter of fact 49ers had several Pro Bowl caliber players. Lotts play to stop Pearson from breaking free for the TD was just as big, not to mention the Dean sack of white causing the fumble.
 

jobberone

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The one stat by a QB that determines more wins and losses than any other is their TD to turnover ratio especially in win or go home games. Romo's TD to turnover ratio in his 1-6 elimination game record is 8-12. In his one win his TD to turnover ratio is 2-0. In his 6 losses his TD to turnover ratio is 6-12. Peyton Manning has a 9-11 playoff record. His TD to turnover ratio is 30-21. In his 9 wins his TD to turnover ratio is 20-11. In his 11 losses his TD to turnover ratio is 10-10. Eli Manning's playoff/elimination game record is 9-3. In his 9 wins his TD to turnover ratio is a very impressive 18-2. In his 3 losses his TD to turnover ratio is 2-7. Joe Flacco has a 9-4 playoff record. His TD to turnover ratio is 19-10. In his 4 losses his TD to turnover ratio is 3-8. In his 9 wins his TD to turnover ratio is 16-2.

I think that is not the best way to use that stat. If you have a negative turnover diff of -2 then you are only going to win about 20% of those games at home and a little less away. So you can say any team regardless of QB is going to lose most of those games. You could go thru each game and look at turnovers but you'd really have to watch them or the film to even get a guess as to whether the QB is responsible for them.
 

superpunk

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and yet the 85 Bears destroyed Montana. You are picking 1 game on the season where the Bears went 15-1 they faced other great QB and destroyed them. Talk about spinning. lol
In addition it completely ignores that Miami's defense outplayed Chicago's that day, in order to fit the agenda of it being all about the QBs. McMahon only threw 6 passes, but he and Fuller combined for 3 picks and 6 sacks while Chicago could only manufacture 3 sacks and 1 pick.

It's really perfect for illustrating the pass offense is just as important as pass defense point. Talk about your all time backfires...
 
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