1. Win a SB this year, then go 7-10 for the next 10 years, missing the playoffs each year
—or—
2. Make the playoffs 8 out of the next 10 years, but never advancing past the NFC Championship Game (or worse)
Why?
Is that possible?
Has any team ever gone to the playoffs 8 times in 10 seasons and not reached the NFC championship game? I doubt it.
This is actually the goal of elite franchises, to be consistently good enough to reach the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen. Only half of the best teams in a season actually win a Super Bowl. There have been cases of teams that dominated the regular season only to fall in the division round. There is no guarantee and the element of luck does play a part.
That is why it is wiser to build a team capable of competing for a substantial amount of time. If a team is constantly in the thick of things then sooner or later they are going to win it all.
A team has a much better chance of getting in a Super Bowl if they are good enough to get in the playoffs 8 out of 10 seasons than they are if they go "all in" for one season.
I realize that the Bucs and Rams championship made it seem as though that is the way to go but there are more teams that tried that and failed.