WR In the First Round Is a Horrible Idea

[Champsheart]

I'm glad that you "have a feeling" your analysis is correct, but in the real world, that doesn't amount to much.

I agree

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Fuzzy, not looking to pick a fight, but by your definitions here after round 1 even more WRs end up as busts. So should we NEVER, ever draft WRs? Should we restrict ourselves to Free Agent castoffs?

We have two of them who are both past 30. Drafting a WR in the first round is about building towards the future. Given who we have on the roster there is less chance of a bust because this draft choice will not be expected to come in right away and be a #1 or #2 guy. It will be about getting up to NFL speed.

I think given the depth of the WR crop of this draft it is the perfect time to draft one. Every position has busts, WR and TE rely not only on their own skills to succeed but without a QB to get them the ball they are handcuffed. We have a good QB to get them the ball.

I respectfully disagree with your analysis.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm glad that you "have a feeling" your analysis is correct, but in the real world, that doesn't amount to much.

Actually I was talking about any mistakes I may have made not about the project in and of itself. I spent a lot of time on this and i am actually very sure of my little project here.

Regardless, all YOU have is a feeling that its wrong and I know in the 5 minutes youve looked at it is no way to evaluate. At least in the real world.

 

[theogt]

Actually I was talking about any mistakes I may have made not about the project in and of itself. I spent a lot of time on this and i am actually very sure of my little project here.

Regardless, all YOU have is a feeling that its wrong and I know in the 5 minutes youve looked at it is no way to evaluate. At least in the real world.

I randomly picked 2 players. I disagreed with your assessment of the first 2 I looked at. That's not a good sign. I don't really have the time or desire to go through and debate each pick. I think it's sufficient to point out a couple mistakes on your part to show that the analysis isn't helpful. It doesn't really matter if I have a "feeling" or not. It's your burden of proof. If you want to make the claim that WR in the 1st is a bad idea, then you should prove it. So far you haven't proven squat.

Beyond that, you still haven't addressed the "expected return" vs. "risk" argument that I made.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Fuzzy, not looking to pick a fight, but by your definitions here after round 1 even more WRs end up as busts. So should we NEVER, ever draft WRs? Should we restrict ourselves to Free Agent castoffs?

We have two of them who are both past 30. Drafting a WR in the first round is about building towards the future. Given who we have on the roster there is less chance of a bust because this draft choice will not be expected to come in right away and be a #1 or #2 guy. It will be about getting up to NFL speed.

I think given the depth of the WR crop of this draft it is the perfect time to draft one. Every position has busts, WR and TE rely not only on their own skills to succeed but without a QB to get them the ball they are handcuffed. We have a good QB to get them the ball.

I respectfully disagree with your analysis.

My point is that the relative bust rates to other positions. The bust rate of WRs is not only high but there are other positions that are much safer such as OT and DE. Now I really need to look at CB and S as wella s thos are other positions we should be loooking at in round one but I dont have time right now.

But overall my point is that with 10 WRs worthy of first round consideration and the bounty of CBs, OT and DE on this draft i think the safer route is to wait on WR. Thats all.

 

[mschmidt64]

Actually I was talking about any mistakes I may have made not about the project in and of itself. I spent a lot of time on this and i am actually very sure of my little project here.

Regardless, all YOU have is a feeling that its wrong and I know in the 5 minutes youve looked at it is no way to evaluate. At least in the real world.

Even if your information is correct it's not a very convincing argument.

So what if WR's bust at a higher rate? Are you saying that you should never draft a WR in the first round?

That's preposterous.

Yeah... everyone just let Calvin Johnson slide right by them into the second, since his position carries a high bust factor.

You judge the individual prospects. If you've done your homework and you are a good evaluator, you'll hit on more prospects than you miss on, no matter what the position.

If the WR is your best player on your board, trust that you've done your homework right and you'll be ok.

I have Jarrett as a top 10 pick in this draft. If he's there at 22, there's not very much chance that he's not the BPA.

Of course, Jerry is likely to bust on more picks than most people anyway, but that's not an excuse not to trust your system. It's an excuse to hand the reigns over to a Football man.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I randomly picked 2 players. I disagreed with your assessment of the first 2 I looked at. That's not a good sign. I don't really have the time or desire to go through and debate each pick. I think it's sufficient to point out a couple mistakes on your part to show that the analysis isn't helpful. It doesn't really matter if I have a "feeling" or not. It's your burden of proof. If you want to make the claim that WR in the 1st is a bad idea, then you should prove it. So far you haven't proven squat.

Beyond that, you still haven't addressed the "expected return" vs. "risk" argument that I made.

I call BS. Name those players or actually spend some time to evaluate it. You just disagree with the conclusion so as per usual youre going to make a halfcocked refutation with no basis.

Similar to your conclusion of 'good' play from Watkins after he came back. Go watch the Atlanta game BTW. He SUCKED.

 

[Champsheart]

Actually I was talking about any mistakes I may have made not about the project in and of itself. I spent a lot of time on this and i am actually very sure of my little project here.

Regardless, all YOU have is a feeling that its wrong and I know in the 5 minutes youve looked at it is no way to evaluate. At least in the real world.

It is not that I think what you did is wrong, it just is not the kind of logic I would use when drafting football players.

By your logic and what you are saying is we should never draft a WR in the first round, because 50% of them bust.

That is just absurd.

So I guess we should have never drafted Irvin or Harper. Where would we have been without them?

You draft by your board and the player you have ranked the highest.
There are many great receivers drafted in the first round, your list shows that.

So you expect a franchise to sit there and say well we really think this WR is a great pick here, he is the best player on our board, but WAIT.......

We can not draft him because our data shows receivers drafted in the past 25years dont work out sometimes when drafted in the first round?

That would just be dumb!

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Anyway i have to go. But if you think my conclusions are so bad why dont you put your money where your mouth is and label them yourselves. i ddi most of the work anyway you bunch of lazy bastids. And that could lead to some really interesting discussions anyway.

 

[Champsheart]

Anyway i have to go. But if you think my conclusions are so bad why dont you put your money where your mouth is and label them yourselves. i ddi most of the work anyway you bunch of lazy bastids. And that could lead to some really interesting discussions anyway.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

talk about sticking your head in the sand

 

[theogt]

I call BS. Name those players or actually spend some time to evaluate it. You just disagree with the conclusion so as per usual youre going to make a halfcocked refutation with no basis.

Similar to your conclusion of 'good' play from Watkins after he came back. Go watch the Atlanta game BTW. He SUCKED.

Translation: "I'm right and you're wrong and I refuse to address any of the arguments you raised."

 

[InmanRoshi]

I wouldn't say I would "never" draft a WR in the first round. But when you take into account a) Their phenomenally high bust rates b) you can typically find good ones throughout the draft moreso than other positions and c) most Superbowl winners don't have elite WR's ... he would have to be a pretty special WR for me to take over a similar rated talents at more premium positions.

Does anyone see "special" when they look at Dewayne Bowe?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It is not that I think what you did is wrong, it just is not the kind of logic I would use when drafting football players.

By your logic and what you are saying is we should never draft a WR in the first round, because 50% of them bust.

That is just absurd.

So I guess we should have never drafted Irvin or Harper. Where would we have been without them?

You draft by your board and the player you have ranked the highest.
There are many great receivers drafted in the first round, your list shows that.

So you expect a franchise to sit there and say well we really think this WR is a great pick here, he is the best player on our board, but WAIT.......

We can not draft him because our data shows receivers drafted in the past 25years dont work out sometimes when drafted in the first round?

That would just be dumb!

Actually that is exactly what i say. Dont draft a WR in the first round. Its the same reason at the casino I play poker and blackjack and never roullette or craps.

You may win big on the latter but that doesnt make it a smart move relative to the other games.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Translation: "I'm right and you're wrong and I refuse to address any of the arguments you raised."

You siad you looked at tow players and they were wrong thats weak and you know it. Your refusing to actually evaluate the list you had made up your mind from the get go that much is obvious. And your track record speaks for itself Theo.

Watkins played well in the second half?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Does anyone see "special" when they look at Dewayne Bowe?

the only player I say looks special is Calvin Johnson

JMO

I haven't seen a WR prospect like him in forever

 

[mschmidt64]

I wouldn't say I would "never" draft a WR in the first round. But when you take into account a) Their phenomenally high bust rates b) you can typically find good ones throughout the draft moreso than other positions and c) most Superbowl winners don't have elite WR's ... he would have to be a pretty special WR for me to take over a similar rated talents at more premium positions.

Does anyone see "special" when they look at Dewayne Bowe?

I do.

 

[theogt]

I wouldn't say I would "never" draft a WR in the first round. But when you take into account a) Their phenomenally high bust rates b) you can typically find good ones throughout the draft moreso than other positions and c) most Superbowl winners don't have elite WR's ... he would have to be a pretty special WR for me to take over a similar rated talents at more premium positions.

Does anyone see "special" when they look at Dewayne Bowe?

Ok. So now a guy has to be "special" in order to draft him? Can you define "special?"

Oh, nevermind. This is getting a bit silly.

 

[L-O-Jete]

Greatest WR ever - Rice 1st rounder
Greatest QB (arguably) Montana - 3rd (or 4th?) rounder
So if you want the best you should draft WR in 1st and QB in the 3rd right?
Fuzzy logic?

 

[InmanRoshi]

the only player I say looks special is Calvin Johnson

JMO

Me too. Maybe Ginn if you think you can harness that speed and develop him.

When I see Dewayne Bowe, I see Reggie Williams or Rod Gardener.