WR In the First Round Is a Horrible Idea

[BigDFan5]

So in round 1 you have a 50/50 shot of getting a good WR?

I would be willing to bet the odds drop below 50/50 outside of round 1

 

[Hostile]

I agree with you Hos. To me, this whole post kinda gets off track the minute you get away from the 1st rd. I mean, if you say it's a horrible idea to draft a WR in the first round, then present numbers that support that idea. It gets a bit convoluted if you include all WRs in all rounds. I mean, the numbers may indeed support the idea that it's foolish to draft WRs in the first round but you gotta be able to review that with just first round info to support that position. Also, you have to have specific criteria that qualifies bust or boom.

Not that it matters but Eric Metcalf was not a WR. He was also not a bust IMO. He was a RB but really, he was a wing back IMO. He played 13 years in the league. Between the years of 89 and 98 (9 years), he produced 15228 all purpose yards and scored 54 TDs. That roughly equates to an average of 1692 yards and 6 TDs a season. I would love to be able to draft such a bust in the first round this year.

That is what I'm saying too ABQ. Show me that the failure rate goes down in the 2nd, 3rd, and subsequent rounds. Otherwise all you're really saying is WRs bust. Well, yeah, but so does every other position. By limiting it to round 1, and comparing it to other positions doesn't make sense to me. Compare it to 2nd round, 3rd round, etc.

We're in better shape to groom a WR right now than we ever have been and this is a WR deep draft. Easy math.

 

[theogt]

That is what I'm saying too ABQ. Show me that the failure rate goes down in the 2nd, 3rd, and subsequent rounds. Otherwise all you're really saying is WRs bust. Well, yeah, but so does every other position. By limiting it to round 1, and comparing it to other positions doesn't make sense to me. Compare it to 2nd round, 3rd round, etc.

We're in better shape to groom a WR right now than we ever have been and this is a WR deep draft. Easy math.

Indeed, the fact that WRs bust so easily may actually mean that it's a better idea to draft them as highly as possible, thus reducing the likelihood that they'll bust.

 

[tomson75]

The Cowboys pick in the First...and he's going to be a Star.

OMG, you're such a dingdong of a homer! How does your mock go? let me guess...

RD 1 - Ted Ginn
RD 2 - Troy (the midget) Smith
RD 3 - Anthony Gonzales
etc.
etc.

Lets just put a star on OSU's uni. geez.

 

[theogt]

OMG, you're such a dingdong of a homer! How does your mock go? let me guess...

RD 1 - Ted Ginn
RD 2 - Troy (the midget) Smith
RD 3 - Anthony Gonzales
etc.
etc.

Lets just put a star on OSU's uni. geez.

A+ for use of the word "dingdong."

 

[InmanRoshi]

Indeed, the fact that WRs bust so easily may actually mean that it's a better idea to draft them as highly as possible, thus reducing the likelihood that they'll bust.

WR's drafted with Top 10 picks probably succeed more than those drafted outside the Top 10. So if you're going to draft a WR, you better do it with a Top 10 pick.

We call that the Matt Millen School of Draft Philosophy. Hey Poindexter, Matt don't need your stinkin stats and numbers .... he's got football smarts.

 

[Concord]

OMG, you're such a dingdong of a homer! How does your mock go? let me guess...

RD 1 - Ted Ginn
RD 2 - Troy (the midget) Smith
RD 3 - Anthony Gonzales
etc.
etc.

Lets just put a star on OSU's uni. geez.

Flip flop Gonzales and Smith and you got it right!

In rounds 4-7 feel free to pick non Ohio St players.

 

[tomson75]

A+ for use of the word "dingdong."

Yeah, I'm having a renaissance of sorts with words I used as a child. I find it terribly amusing. Sad, but amusing nontheless.

 

[tomson75]

Flip flop Gonzales and Smith and you got it right!

In rounds 4-7 feel free to pick non Ohio St players.

You sure? Why not go all the way? You gettin' soft?

 

[windward]

Just because wide receivers may bust at a higher rate than other positions doesn't mean we should avoid it altogether in the firt round. We ought to look at the individual prospect and decide if he can fulfill what we expect of him as a wide receiver, which is being a above-average/Pro Bowl type
player sometime in the future. Just because Yatil Green busted doesn't mean Dwayne Bowe will. Misguided logic indeed.

BTW Eric Metcalf was hardly a bust.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

It is my belief that WRs typcially take 3 to 4 seasons to mature in the NFL. I can provide evidence of this but no need to take my word. There are people much qualifed then I who have said the same things. Google would probably produce results. Having said that, lets look at WRs taken in the first round and do a quick and dirty on them over the past few years. This is totally subjective so I would be fine if somebody might disagree with opinion on specific players. I honestly don't know what this will produce but we will see.

I'll give the benifit of the doubt and say 3 years rather then 4. Lets start with the 2004 class go back to say 1996. That would represent 10 years from the 2006 season.

2004 1 1 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh Pass
2 1 7 7 Roy Williams Lions Texas Pass
3 1 9 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars Washington Still Open
4 1 13 13 Lee Evans Bills Wisconsin Pass
5 1 15 15 Michael Clayton Buccaneers Louisiana State Still Open
6 1 29 29 Michael Jenkins Falcons Ohio State Still Open.
7 1 31 31 Rashaun Woods 49ers Oklahoma State Fail

2003 1 1 2 2 Charles Rogers Lions Michigan State Fail
2 1 3 3 Andre Johnson Texans Miami (FL) Pass
3 1 17 17 Bryant Johnson Cardinals Penn State Still Open

2002 1 1 13 13 Donte Stallworth Saints Tennessee Pass
2 1 19 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos Hawaii Still Open
3 1 20 20 Javon Walker Packers Florida State Pass

2001 1 1 8 8 David Terrell Bears Michigan Fail
2 1 9 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks North Carolina State Fail
3 1 15 15 Rod Gardner Commanders Clemson Fail
4 1 16 16 Santana Moss Jets Miami (FL) Pass
5 1 25 25 Freddie Mitchell Eagles UCLA Fail
6 1 30 30 Reggie Wayne Colts Miami (FL) Pass

2000 1 1 4 4 Peter Warrick Bengals Florida State Fail
2 1 8 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers Michigan State Pass
3 1 10 10 Travis Taylor Ravens Florida Fail
4 1 21 21 Sylvester Morris Chiefs Jackson State Fail
5 1 29 29 R. Jay Soward Jaguars USC Fail

1999 1 1 6 6 Torry Holt Rams North Carolina State Pass
2 1 8 8 David Boston Cardinals Ohio State Still Open
3 1 13 13 Troy Edwards Steelers Louisiana Tech Fail

1998 1 1 16 16 Kevin Dyson Oilers Utah Pass
2 1 21 21 Randy Moss Vikings Marshall Pass
3 1 30 30 Marcus Nash Broncos Tennessee Fail

1997 1 1 7 7 Ike Hilliard Giants Florida Failed
2 1 15 15 Yatil Green Dolphins Miami (FL) Fail
3 1 16 16 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers Florida Fail
4 1 27 27 Rae Carruth Panthers Colorado Fail

1996 1 1 1 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets USC Pass
2 1 7 7 Terry Glenn Patriots Ohio State Pass
3 1 18 18 Eddie Kennison Rams Louisiana State Pass
4 1 19 19 Marvin Harrison Colts Syracuse Pass
5 1 24 24 Eric Moulds Bills Mississippi State Pass

OK, there are 6 players here that I designate as "Still Open". These players are the following and here is why I designate them as such.

Reggie Williams - Reggie has steadly improved each year. He is going into his 4th year and some WRs mature in that year. He has never played in a stable offense with a stable QB.

Michael Clayton - Clayton broke into the league with a rookie season where he went for over 1000 yards and 80 catches. Since then, he has been injured and played with not so great QBs. However, in his rookie year, he played with Brad Johnson and Brian Griese, two experience QBs and had a very nice year. I think he will prove to be a PASS.

Michael Jenkins - I wonder what Jenkins could do if he had a good passing QB to work with. I suspect that he could be a PASS if he just had better talent.

Bryant Johnson - Johnson has played in 5 full seasons. He's a 40 to 50 catch guy who averages around 5 yards a season or so but, he playes opposite Fitzgerald and Boldin and he has never played with a real good QB or OL. In addition, last year he only caught 40 balls but he averaged 18.5 a catch. That's pretty dang good. He could go either way at this point IMO.

Ashly Lelie - Lelie has had seasons of 525, 628, 1084, 770 and 430 yards respectively. Some good, some very average but none what I would consider bad. His career YPC is 17.5. That's very respectable. He could go either way.

David Boston - Boston started out with seasons of 473, 1156, 1598, 512 and 880. He has since gone three season pretty much out of football. Before he feel in love with Roids, he was probably the most gifted young WR in the past 10 years. I don't know what Boston will eventually turn out as. He was better before the roids. He could get it back together if he ever got healthy but my inclination is to say he wont. If that's the case, then he probably fails but at this point, I'm not ready to stamp him as such.

OK, 39 WRs taken in the 1st round since 1996. Of those, jury is still out on 6. In my estimation, that means that of the remaining 33, 17 have passed and 16 have failed with a good possbility that 5 of the 6 that are still open could pass.

You got a 50/50 Chance to succeed if you take a WR in the first round. How does that equate to a Horrible idea?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

has anyone taken into consideration that most WRs drafted in the 1st round are expected to contribute immediately in most cases, while any WR we select in the 1st won't have that problem?

 

[Sitting Bull]

Interesting analysis, ABQ. I also recall an analysis showing that very few current starting WRs were drafted past the third round since 2000. Brandon Lloyd and Houshmadzadeh were the rare exceptions I recall. That's why Marques Colston was such a gem last year. It's a difficult position to draft and the point is driven home by the fact that our two aging starters came to us via a trade and free agency. In a deep WR draft and with the team in position to draft BPA, I think it is the perfect climate to add a quality WR with our first pick.

 

[windward]

has anyone taken into consideration that most WRs drafted in the 1st round are expected to contribute immediately in most cases, while any WR we select in the 1st won't have that problem?

That's true and if we draft a guy like Bowe he will be the #3 receiver at best, maybe even #4 this year. There at least won't be the furor from poster claiming Bowe as a bust than if we drafted a guy like Jason Hill in the 2nd.

I'm not pro-wr or any position. Just BPA. If it's Bowe, so be it. If it's Jarvis Moss Joe Staley or Daymeion Hughes so be it

 

[HarrisburgPAFan]

Antone Davis, a boom?!?!?!?!?!?!

 

[Hostile]

has anyone taken into consideration that most WRs drafted in the 1st round are expected to contribute immediately in most cases, while any WR we select in the 1st won't have that problem?

Yes, I have said this twice.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

2003 WRs

1st round

· Charles Rogers: bust
· Andre Johnson: boom
· Bryant Johnson: mediocre

2nd round

· Taylor Jacobs: bust
· Bethel Johnson: bust
· Anquan Boldin: boom
· Tyrone Calico: bust

3rd round

· Kelly Washington: I
· Nate Burleson: bust
· Kevin Curtis: mediocre
· Billy McMullen: bust

4th round

· Shaun McDonald: bust
· Brandon Lloyd: bust

5th round

· Bobby Wade: mediocre
· Adrian Madise: bust
· Jon Olinger: bust
· Doug Gabriel: bust
· JR Tolver: bust

6th

· David Kircus: bust
· Zuriel Smith: bust
· LaTarence Dunbar: bust
· Arnaz battle: mediocre
· Willie Ponder: bust
· Kareem Kelly: bust
· David Tyree: bust

7th

· Keenan Howry: bust
· Walter Young: bust
· Talman Gardner: bust
· DeAndrew Rubin: bust
· Carl Ford: bust
· Travis Anglin: bust
· Ryan Hoag: bust

 

[dboyz]

OK, there are 6 players here that I designate as "Still Open". These players are the following and here is why I designate them as such.

Reggie Williams - Reggie has steadly improved each year. He is going into his 4th year and some WRs mature in that year. He has never played in a stable offense with a stable QB.

Michael Clayton - Clayton broke into the league with a rookie season where he went for over 1000 yards and 80 catches. Since then, he has been injured and played with not so great QBs. However, in his rookie year, he played with Brad Johnson and Brian Griese, two experience QBs and had a very nice year. I think he will prove to be a PASS.

Michael Jenkins - I wonder what Jenkins could do if he had a good passing QB to work with. I suspect that he could be a PASS if he just had better talent.

Bryant Johnson - Johnson has played in 5 full seasons. He's a 40 to 50 catch guy who averages around 5 yards a season or so but, he playes opposite Fitzgerald and Boldin and he has never played with a real good QB or OL. In addition, last year he only caught 40 balls but he averaged 18.5 a catch. That's pretty dang good. He could go either way at this point IMO.

Ashly Lelie - Lelie has had seasons of 525, 628, 1084, 770 and 430 yards respectively. Some good, some very average but none what I would consider bad. His career YPC is 17.5. That's very respectable. He could go either way.

David Boston - Boston started out with seasons of 473, 1156, 1598, 512 and 880. He has since gone three season pretty much out of football. Before he feel in love with Roids, he was probably the most gifted young WR in the past 10 years. I don't know what Boston will eventually turn out as. He was better before the roids. He could get it back together if he ever got healthy but my inclination is to say he wont. If that's the case, then he probably fails but at this point, I'm not ready to stamp him as such.

OK, 39 WRs taken in the 1st round since 1996. Of those, jury is still out on 6. In my estimation, that means that of the remaining 33, 17 have passed and 16 have failed with a good possbility that 5 of the 6 that are still open could pass.

You got a 50/50 Chance to succeed if you take a WR in the first round. How does that equate to a Horrible idea?

I would designate Ashley Lelie, Bryant Johnson and Michael Jenkins as fail. Otherwise I pretty much agree. From the information I've seen, it looks like drafting a WR in the first round is a little more risky than drafting another position. Also, The talent pool for WR's is generally deeper so you can find players in later rounds. That said, I wouldn't say I would never take a WR in the first round. However, it would have to be clearly the best player on the board for me to consider.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

and I think this discussion is pretty unfair considering on average, 4 WRs are taken in the 1st round, last year there was 1, as opposed to about 25-30 receivers taken after

if anyone wants, they should compare the ratio of busts in the 1st round, as compared to busts for Wrs taken after round 1, for my example, 1 out of the 3 1st round receivers have gone on to great sucess, as opposed to only 1 out of the 30 receivers taken after the 1st

 

[windward]

2003 WRs

1st round

· Charles Rogers: bust
· Andre Johnson: boom
· Bryant Johnson: mediocre

2nd round

· Taylor Jacobs: bust
· Bethel Johnson: bust
· Anquan Boldin: boom
· Tyrone Calico: bust

3rd round

· Kelly Washington: I
· Nate Burleson: bust
· Kevin Curtis: mediocre
· Billy McMullen: bust

4th round

· Shaun McDonald: bust
· Brandon Lloyd: bust

5th round

· Bobby Wade: mediocre
· Adrian Madise: bust
· Jon Olinger: bust
· Doug Gabriel: bust
· JR Tolver: bust

6th

· David Kircus: bust
· Zuriel Smith: bust
· LaTarence Dunbar: bust
· Arnaz battle: mediocre
· Willie Ponder: bust
· Kareem Kelly: bust
· David Tyree: bust

7th

· Keenan Howry: bust
· Walter Young: bust
· Talman Gardner: bust
· DeAndrew Rubin: bust
· Carl Ford: bust
· Travis Anglin: bust
· Ryan Hoag: bust

My question is: How can sixth or seventh round picks be considered "busts" when little is really expected of them?