Twitter: Scott Pioli, former NFL GM, three major consequences of 2021 projected cap decrease

[black label]

daks strain just went to 52.2 mil

 

[xwalker]

If this holds, it could create a lot of good/quality players being cut, creating a bonanza 2021 free-agent market/opportunity. It's also why we'll see min 2021 draft trades IMO. Picks are way too valuable, even lower rounds.


https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-s...hree-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease
2021 NFL salary cap conundrum: Three major consequences of projected decrease
Published: Dec 01, 2020 at 07:57 AM

Scott Pioli
NFL Media Analyst

The primary beneficiary is the media because it gives them more to talk about...

The players are not going away and there remains only 32 teams.

Maybe more movement of veteran players but those players will end up somewhere.

Example: If KC cuts some veteran players due to the reduced cap, they'll also find more available to replace them that were cut by other teams.

Maybe there will be some benefit to teams with more cap space but I don't see long-term contracts being drastically affected.

It seems that many players might end up signing 1 year contracts instead of long term contracts.

In some cases cutting players that signed big contracts can increase that team's 2021 cap hit, not decrease it.

Recap:
- Same pool of players as every year and same 32 teams.
- There is nothing to indicate that a few teams will get all of the good players that are salary cap cuts.

 

[xwalker]

Not taking the 5 year, 175-185 million dollar offer looks more and more crazy to me.

but not my choice

Yawn.

Dak received bad advice from his agent, but it's not related to Covid issues.

The agent put Dak's future earnings at great risk in pursuit is what is a relatively small gain in comparison to what he could lose due to injury.

Potential Losses:
If the offer was 170M with 100M guaranteed, then Dak was guaranteed 100M even if he had a career ending injury the next day in practice.

What the agent would gain if he "wins" the contract stalemate:
It appear the agent was seeking about 3M more per season than the Cowboys offer.

At 5 years, 3M that's an extra 15M.

Do you roll the dice on injury if the bet is to risk 100M to gain 15M ?

Even if we deduct the 31M that he received on the Tag in 2020, that's still 69M at risk for the potential gain of 15M.

Reality of Dak's Agent
The agent's contract with the big agency CAA ended just before the deadline for players on Franchise Tags to sign a new contract (July 2020).

If Dak's contract was signed before the agent's contract with CAA ended, then CAA would get their percentage of the entire 5 year contract.

Waiting for the agent's contract to end means that he get's the entire commission.

This is likely true even with the agent joining another agency or the agent gained a bigger ownership interest in his new agency due to bring big clients like Dak with him.

Regardless of the exact details, the agent benefits if Dak waited to sign a new contract.

It is highly unlikely that Covid will impact the dollar amount of long term mega-contracts signed during the calendar year 2021.

If the 2021 season continues to be impacted by Covid, then that could change but as of now agents will not believe that the 2021 season is going to be impacted by Covid.

 

[Steve007]

Elite is a Semantic argument.
He's a top 10 QB easily and probably more like 5 or 6 in value going forward the next 5-6 years.

NFL teams will likely NEVER have a chance to get Pat Mahomes again.
They don't have a shot at Watson.
Can scratch Kyler.
Only really bad play makes Lamar available....

Go down the list.

If they do have a shot at a guy that is the very best guy they WILL have a shot at, they will take it and pay the freight.

That's how this works and I am shocked you guys don't understand this.

Byron Jones is a very good CB. He is not the best CB. But he signed for the highest CB deal ever when he signed.
Top of the market Free agents gets overpaid EVERY YEAR.
It is without fail.

8 Quarterbacks make more in AAV than Dallas paid Dak this year on his franchise tag.
He isn't getting a pay cut.
The last 2 deals were at 45M AAV which he won't get. --a team could very well him 50M AAV but it wouldn't be real money.
And 39AAV which he almost certainly approaches if not beats.

Spotrac which does this for a living:

Dak Prescott Calculated Market Value
$37.8M AAV.

On the open market he'd beat that easily.
But it's very unlikely he hits the open market as DAL likely gives him that deal.
Perhaps given the injury they are more amenable to give him the shorter deal but it will still be at this rate or not get signed.

The best case for Dak and Dallas is a larger deal with 6 years to spread cap hits
Very large money up front.
year 1. 40M SB 2M Base cap hit 10M
year 2 Roster bonus 40M 2M base cap hit 18M
year 3 25M base cap hit 41M
year 4 30M base cap hit 46M
year 5 35M base ...
year 6 35M base ...

Total deal 224M 37.33AAV manageable cap hits for 2 cap restricted seasons.
Can flip year 3 to reduce cap hit massively.
Extend in year 4 or eat cap hit or cut.

If the Cowboys pay Dak 37 million they will never get to a superbowl. No other team will give him that kind of money. If the Cowboys tried to trade him they could not get a first for him. People will disagree, but time will tell.

 

[DFWJC]

yes, no one says its not....4 year 50mill is real money. 3 year 24 M is real money. 10 year 500M is real money....2 year 20M is real money....its not about it being real money or not...its "relative" to the rest of the league in how the market is set. you can't compare in a vaccum.

Of course.
And it was real money relative to the league as well, obviously.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Of course.
And it was real money relative to the league as well, obviously.

and it was in line for what QBs make in real money, based on many contracts handed out to Cousins, Wentz, Geoff, Wilson

 

[DFWJC]

and it was in line for what QBs make in real money, based on many contracts handed out to Cousins, Wentz, Geoff, Wilson

So we agree....he should've taken the deal.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

So we agree....he should've taken the deal.

no....the deal jones was pushing for was for 5 years, which would include 2024. none of the other QBs and other top agents, signed contracts that go into 2024...why? because 2024 the cap is expected to go up by 20-25%, because of the new TV deal, so all these others wanted to hit FA by that time, with the extra cap room and QB market going as its going.

Dak wanted similar deal, 4 years, so he would hit 2024 as a FA. there were some rumors, although unsubstantiated, that they floated the idea of a poison pill for 2024, like 49M figure.....sounds high, but the way QB market has been going, expected to be 38M for franchise tag in 2021, 49 is not out of the ordinary. this to protect Dak and Jones. either its really high for the 2024 market and jones releases him. or its inline with the 2024 expected salaries and he keeps him. it would have also given Jones an out, if Dak didn't work out....

Jones' deal was for 5 years averaging 38M including 2024....

that was the deal breaker for Dak..

although in the end apparantley Dak was ready to sign, but his agent advised against it as any good agent would....

so no, we don't agree he should have taken the deal. perhaps you mean Jones should have agreed to the 4 year deal on the table....in that case, yeah, perhaps he should have taken the deal...

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

If the Cowboys pay Dak 37 million they will never get to a superbowl. No other team will give him that kind of money. If the Cowboys tried to trade him they could not get a first for him. People will disagree, but time will tell.

I disagree. time will tell. not sure why the 37M figure is a show stopper.....but we shall see

 

[jterrell]

If the Cowboys pay Dak 37 million they will never get to a superbowl. No other team will give him that kind of money. If the Cowboys tried to trade him they could not get a first for him. People will disagree, but time will tell.

This is all so painfully incorrect.
Dallas didn't get a SB paying Dak 400K when he won ROY and was an MVP candidate. That's on them.
They can pay the QB whatever they want.
It is just cap mechanics.

Paying 37M next year in cap hit would be terrible but they can easily do it by simply pushing other money down the road with accounting.

Every team will pay their franchise QB this type of money or more.
It is how the league works.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dak received bad advice from his agent, but it's not related to Covid issues.

The agent put Dak's future earnings at great risk in pursuit is what is a relatively small gain in comparison to what he could lose due to injury.

Potential Losses:
If the offer was 170M with 100M guaranteed, then Dak was guaranteed 100M even if he had a career ending injury the next day in practice.

What the agent would gain if he "wins" the contract stalemate:
It appear the agent was seeking about 3M more per season than the Cowboys offer.

At 5 years, 3M that's an extra 15M.

Do you roll the dice on injury if the bet is to risk 100M to gain 15M ?

Even if we deduct the 31M that he received on the Tag in 2020, that's still 69M at risk for the potential gain of 15M.

Reality of Dak's Agent
The agent's contract with the big agency CAA ended just before the deadline for players on Franchise Tags to sign a new contract (July 2020).

If Dak's contract was signed before the agent's contract with CAA ended, then CAA would get their percentage of the entire 5 year contract.

Waiting for the agent's contract to end means that he get's the entire commission.

This is likely true even with the agent joining another agency or the agent gained a bigger ownership interest in his new agency due to bring big clients like Dak with him.

Regardless of the exact details, the agent benefits if Dak waited to sign a new contract.

It is highly unlikely that Covid will impact the dollar amount of long term mega-contracts signed during the calendar year 2021.

If the 2021 season continues to be impacted by Covid, then that could change but as of now agents will not believe that the 2021 season is going to be impacted by Covid.

I disagree. one as a player, although injuries are real and can happen you don't think about it. specially at QB since the statistics show chances are very very low for a career ending injury...

I am also sure that Dak has insurance, so if anything happens to him, he is going to be covered by his insurance. all athletes do, and most even get it in college just in case.

the contention of the contract wasn't just about 3M year, it was about 2024. becoming a FA in 2024 when the cap is expected to go up by 20-25% after TV negotiations.....assuming the QB franchise tag is about 50M by then (if 34 this year, 38 next year, etc.).....then assuming salaries go up by 20%, then that's 10M extra just for that year alone and if you are a FA in 2024, perhaps 150M+ in gaurantees for a contract......

so it wasn't about 3M extra per year.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

This is all so painfully incorrect.
Dallas didn't get a SB paying Dak 400K when he won ROY and was an MVP candidate. That's on them.
They can pay the QB whatever they want.
It is just cap mechanics.

Paying 37M next year in cap hit would be terrible but they can easily do it by simply pushing other money down the road with accounting.

Every team will pay their franchise QB this type of money or more.
It is how the league works.

EXACTLY.......

but people have an agenda for anyone wanting to make top level money....they seemingly get offended...

 

[jterrell]

Dak received bad advice from his agent, but it's not related to Covid issues.

The agent put Dak's future earnings at great risk in pursuit is what is a relatively small gain in comparison to what he could lose due to injury.

Potential Losses:
If the offer was 170M with 100M guaranteed, then Dak was guaranteed 100M even if he had a career ending injury the next day in practice.

What the agent would gain if he "wins" the contract stalemate:
It appear the agent was seeking about 3M more per season than the Cowboys offer.

At 5 years, 3M that's an extra 15M.

Do you roll the dice on injury if the bet is to risk 100M to gain 15M ?

Even if we deduct the 31M that he received on the Tag in 2020, that's still 69M at risk for the potential gain of 15M.

Reality of Dak's Agent
The agent's contract with the big agency CAA ended just before the deadline for players on Franchise Tags to sign a new contract (July 2020).

If Dak's contract was signed before the agent's contract with CAA ended, then CAA would get their percentage of the entire 5 year contract.

Waiting for the agent's contract to end means that he get's the entire commission.

This is likely true even with the agent joining another agency or the agent gained a bigger ownership interest in his new agency due to bring big clients like Dak with him.

Regardless of the exact details, the agent benefits if Dak waited to sign a new contract.

It is highly unlikely that Covid will impact the dollar amount of long term mega-contracts signed during the calendar year 2021.

If the 2021 season continues to be impacted by Covid, then that could change but as of now agents will not believe that the 2021 season is going to be impacted by Covid.

Dak's agent gave him great advice as we shall all see in about 6 months when he signs a monster deal that secures generational wealth for Dak's family.
Dallas will have unnecessarily eaten bad cap hits to get there and paid far more than Dak wanted previously showing the panting of Stephen Jones once again.
DLaw's, Zeke's and Dak's agents are probably gonna be in Cabo together soon celebrating just how bad Stephen is at this job.

 

[jterrell]

As a note. Since this NFL inspired nonsense was published it has been noted the cap will likely be 15M higher than projected here.
This was nonsense when released than laughable nonsense within a week.

 

[G2]

If the Cowboys pay Dak 37 million they will never get to a superbowl. No other team will give him that kind of money. If the Cowboys tried to trade him they could not get a first for him. People will disagree, but time will tell.

There are a handful of teams who are in need of a QB that would give up a first round pick for Prescott. The problem is, why risk that to sign a player early in the 1st if you have no idea how he'll play in the NFL? The lower risk is to tag Prescott, try to work a deal or trade him for a first.

 

[John813]

no....the deal jones was pushing for was for 5 years, which would include 2024. none of the other QBs and other top agents, signed contracts that go into 2024...why? because 2024 the cap is expected to go up by 20-25%, because of the new TV deal, so all these others wanted to hit FA by that time, with the extra cap room and QB market going as its going.

Dak wanted similar deal, 4 years, so he would hit 2024 as a FA. there were some rumors, although unsubstantiated, that they floated the idea of a poison pill for 2024, like 49M figure.....sounds high, but the way QB market has been going, expected to be 38M for franchise tag in 2021, 49 is not out of the ordinary. this to protect Dak and Jones. either its really high for the 2024 market and jones releases him. or its inline with the 2024 expected salaries and he keeps him. it would have also given Jones an out, if Dak didn't work out....

Jones' deal was for 5 years averaging 38M including 2024....

that was the deal breaker for Dak..

although in the end apparantley Dak was ready to sign, but his agent advised against it as any good agent would....

so no, we don't agree he should have taken the deal. perhaps you mean Jones should have agreed to the 4 year deal on the table....in that case, yeah, perhaps he should have taken the deal...

Carson Wentz: https://overthecap.com/player/carson-wentz/4715/ deal goes to 2025
Jared Goff: https://overthecap.com/player/jared-goff/4714/ deal goes to 2025.
Deshaun Watson: https://overthecap.com/player/deshaun-watson/5596/ deal goes to 2026

The current TV deal expires in 2022 for the sunday games. MNF expires in 2021. The NFL is already in negotiations for new TV deals. Any new TV deal would affect the 2022/23+ cap.

In reality, Wentz-Goff and Watson signed 4 year deals, but the deals were signed ontop of their 5th year option from their rookie contract, where the 5th year option was exercised. So, their teams have/had their rights for 5 more years after the 4th year of eligibility.

Dallas never had that option due to taking Dak in the 4th round, with no 5th year option.
So, in order to spread out the prorated signing bonus and have more cap flexibility, Dallas wanted that 5th year on the extension.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Carson Wentz: https://overthecap.com/player/carson-wentz/4715/ deal goes to 2025
Jared Goff: https://overthecap.com/player/jared-goff/4714/ deal goes to 2025.
Deshaun Watson: https://overthecap.com/player/deshaun-watson/5596/ deal goes to 2026

T for the sunday games. MNF expires in 2021. The NFL is already in negotiations for new TV deals. Any new TV deal would affect the 2022/23+ cap.

In reality, Wentz-Goff and Watson signed 4 year deals, but the deals were signed ontop of their 5th year option from their rookie contract, where the 5th year option was exercised. So, their teams have/had their rights for 5 more years after the 4th year of eligibility.

Dallas never had that option due to taking Dak in the 4th round, with no 5th year option.
So, in order to spread out the prorated signing bonus and have more cap flexibility, Dallas wanted that 5th year on the extension.

I believe the TV contract expires in 2022, go into effect in 2023 but cap impact not expected until 2024 later once revenue is projected into the new year..


I stand corrected on Wentz, however Wentz signed an extension which gave him a lot more money up front before his contract ended. so in essence he got money ahead of his contract ending, which is pushing money to the front as opposed to the backend...

Goff recieved the biggest gaurantee in NFL and he also got an extension, on top of his current contract which pushed a lot of money up front.

Watson signed an average 40M contract....which is larger than what was offered to Dak on average.. we may sit here an argue who is better who is not....that's for the fans. the agents, QBs don't think that way. they think QB market value....Watson also got an extension, which is getting money before his contract ended.

so in essence for them the money got pushed to the front, getting lump sums ahead of their contract ending. that was the trade off, give 2024, but get money now before the current contract expires.

Dak was a FA. played out on a rookie contract for a 4th rounder.

like I said, Dak was ready to make a deal, his agent advised against it.

IMO, Jones should have agreed to the 4 year contract....and if things worked out, then great pay him for another 4-6 years. if they didn't then walk away.......win win situation.


Impending NFL TV Rights Deals Are Impacting Contract Negotiations

 

[John813]

I believe the TV contract expires in 2022, go into effect in 2023 but cap impact not expected until 2024 later once revenue is projected into the new year..


I stand corrected on Wentz, however Wentz signed an extension which gave him a lot more money up front before his contract ended. so in essence he got money ahead of his contract ending, which is pushing money to the front as opposed to the backend...

Goff recieved the biggest gaurantee in NFL and he also got an extension, on top of his current contract which pushed a lot of money up front.

Watson signed an average 40M contract....which is larger than what was offered to Dak on average.. we may sit here an argue who is better who is not....that's for the fans. the agents, QBs don't think that way. they think QB market value....Watson also got an extension, which is getting money before his contract ended.

so in essence for them the money got pushed to the front, getting lump sums ahead of their contract ending. that was the trade off, give 2024, but get money now before the current contract expires.

Dak was a FA. played out on a rookie contract for a 4th rounder.

like I said, Dak was ready to make a deal, his agent advised against it.

IMO, Jones should have agreed to the 4 year contract....and if things worked out, then great pay him for another 4-6 years. if they didn't then walk away.......win win situation.


Impending NFL TV Rights Deals Are Impacting Contract Negotiations

Yea, the exact terms of when the cap gets a boost I've seen all over the place and from so many sources it's hard to say which one is right or wrong.
IIRC I thought there were articles this past offseason mentioning 2022 for some cap boost from the deals but I'm losing info as much as I'm gaining it when the team sucks.

I think with Dak too he would of gotten a nice signing bonus up front, unless the Jones boys were lowballing him there too.
IMO the team should of taken that rumored offer of a 5 year deal but with a clause of no FT at the end of it.

I agree his agent was playing hardball, and maybe not at the benefit of Dak at times.

 

[FVSTONE]

It was not the money Dak had a problem with. It was the years.

Well, I can't wait to see the look on Dak's face when JJ cuts his offer 20 - 30 percent. I believe you're going to see one pissed off MFer when it comes to retaining and cutting players. JJ has two legs in the grave and does not want to leave this Blue and Gray earth without one more championship so you can bet the house that he's going to clean house before the start of next season.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Well, I can't wait to see the look on Dak's face when JJ cuts his offer 20 - 30 percent. I believe you're going to see one pissed off MFer when it comes to retaining and cutting players. JJ has two legs in the grave and does not want to leave this Blue and Gray earth without one more championship so you can bet the house that he's going to clean house before the start of next season.

Good. Jerry has no one to blame but himself! Who overpays everyone else before paying your stud franchise QB??? No one, except Jerry Jones. This fool has created his own mess. Now he is reaping what he has sown.