Twitter: Scott Pioli, former NFL GM, three major consequences of 2021 projected cap decrease

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Well, I can't wait to see the look on Dak's face when JJ cuts his offer 20 - 30 percent. I believe you're going to see one pissed off MFer when it comes to retaining and cutting players. JJ has two legs in the grave and does not want to leave this Blue and Gray earth without one more championship so you can bet the house that he's going to clean house before the start of next season.

 

[DFWJC]

no....the deal jones was pushing for was for 5 years, which would include 2024. none of the other QBs and other top agents, signed contracts that go into 2024...why? because 2024 the cap is expected to go up by 20-25%, because of the new TV deal, so all these others wanted to hit FA by that time, with the extra cap room and QB market going as its going.

Dak wanted similar deal, 4 years, so he would hit 2024 as a FA. there were some rumors, although unsubstantiated, that they floated the idea of a poison pill for 2024, like 49M figure.....sounds high, but the way QB market has been going, expected to be 38M for franchise tag in 2021, 49 is not out of the ordinary. this to protect Dak and Jones. either its really high for the 2024 market and jones releases him. or its inline with the 2024 expected salaries and he keeps him. it would have also given Jones an out, if Dak didn't work out....

Jones' deal was for 5 years averaging 38M including 2024....

that was the deal breaker for Dak..

although in the end apparantley Dak was ready to sign, but his agent advised against it as any good agent would....

so no, we don't agree he should have taken the deal. perhaps you mean Jones should have agreed to the 4 year deal on the table....in that case, yeah, perhaps he should have taken the deal...

Well, Rams have Goff through the 2024 season

Wentz’ too...though they are regretting it

you’re just....wrong.
They were extensions onto existing deals vs new contracts. Both go thru 2024
Jerry was just lining them up

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Well, Rams have Goff through the 2024 season

Wentz’ too...though they are regretting it

you’re just....wrong.
They were extensions onto existing deals vs new contracts. Both go thru 2024
Jerry was just lining them up

well, like I said all of those guys got an extension before their contracts ended, in essence pushing money to earlier years, as opposed to finishing their contract and negotiating....

different situation than when you are not under contract. a FA and can go anywhere and negotiate.....or get Tagged!!....

jerry just screwed up on this one....after handing Zeke 90M contract with 2 years to go and giving Lawrence a 20M contract after just a half good season.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think cap will be down next season but do not expect it to stay down with new TV contract on the horizon. I think teams will look to have longterm deals done where the cap hit is more manageable in the 1st year of the contract and backloaded on the remainder. Based on what I have seen all the networks will be paying double what they do now which is in the billions of dollars.

 

[xwalker]

Dak's agent gave him great advice as we shall all see in about 6 months when he signs a monster deal that secures generational wealth for Dak's family.
Dallas will have unnecessarily eaten bad cap hits to get there and paid far more than Dak wanted previously showing the panting of Stephen Jones once again.
DLaw's, Zeke's and Dak's agents are probably gonna be in Cabo together soon celebrating just how bad Stephen is at this job.

The agent turned down 36M per with a starting season of 2020.

In a normal non-covid situation that would be equivalent to a contract starting in 2021 of 39M per (based on average NFL cap increase percentage).

 

[xwalker]

I disagree. one as a player, although injuries are real and can happen you don't think about it. specially at QB since the statistics show chances are very very low for a career ending injury...

I am also sure that Dak has insurance, so if anything happens to him, he is going to be covered by his insurance. all athletes do, and most even get it in college just in case.

the contention of the contract wasn't just about 3M year, it was about 2024. becoming a FA in 2024 when the cap is expected to go up by 20-25% after TV negotiations.....assuming the QB franchise tag is about 50M by then (if 34 this year, 38 next year, etc.).....then assuming salaries go up by 20%, then that's 10M extra just for that year alone and if you are a FA in 2024, perhaps 150M+ in gaurantees for a contract......

so it wasn't about 3M extra per year.

Any radical jump in the cap only affects 1 year because the agent wanted 1 less. Dak would get the benefit of the jump but 1 year delayed if he signed the 5 year deal vs 4 year deal.

Most NFL players do not have full insurance coverage.

Teams generally don't insure player contracts but occasionally do insure them. If the cost was reasonable teams would have it on all players.

The cost/benefit is radically different for college players vs NFL players. I won't go into details here but it is a completely different scenario for college vs Pro.

 

[jterrell]

The agent turned down 36M per with a starting season of 2020.

In a normal non-covid situation that would be equivalent to a contract starting in 2021 of 39M per (based on average NFL cap increase percentage).

I mean we can debate this one up until he signs.
I'm pretty sure I know how it'll turn out though.
Joel Corry laid all this out in advance.
Dallas had to buy the 5th year if they wanted it.
Other guys got 4 year extensions.
Dallas failure to extend early isn't Dak's fault.
Dallas was willing to go 35-37M AAV on a 5 year deal with 105M GTD.
That's not terribly bad but only reached that high in their final offer,

DeShaun Watson signed a 4 year 156M deal shortly thereafter, 110 GTD.
Dak asked for 4 and 150. His ask was in line with reality.
Dallas offer really wasn't.

Dak has ALL the leverage and Stephen royally screwed this up. If he wasn't a Jones he had been fired for this.
They paid Dak 31.4M and have zero leverage, ate it all at once on the cap and are back at square one now with 37.7M as the base.

 

[Steve007]

I mean we can debate this one up until he signs.
I'm pretty sure I know how it'll turn out though.
Joel Corry laid all this out in advance.
Dallas had to buy the 5th year if they wanted it.
Other guys got 4 year extensions.
Dallas failure to extend early isn't Dak's fault.
Dallas was willing to go 35-37M AAV on a 5 year deal with 105M GTD.
That's not terribly bad but only reached that high in their final offer,

DeShaun Watson signed a 4 year 156M deal shortly thereafter, 110 GTD.
Dak asked for 4 and 150. His ask was in line with reality.
Dallas offer really wasn't.

Dak has ALL the leverage and Stephen royally screwed this up. If he wasn't a Jones he had been fired for this.
They paid Dak 31.4M and have zero leverage, ate it all at once on the cap and are back at square one now with 37.7M as the base.

It's funny how so many people say Dak has all the leverage. People have been saying this since his His contract was up. If Dak has all the leverage he would have been signed a long time ago. We don't know what the Jones are thinking about Dak for a long term solution.

 

[jterrell]

It's funny how so many people say Dak has all the leverage. People have been saying this since his His contract was up. If Dak has all the leverage he would have been signed a long time ago. We don't know what the Jones are thinking about Dak for a long term solution.

My dude Dak just made 31.4M and will get a raise.
He's going to sign a deal worth insane money.
Yes, he has all the leverage and has had all the leverage.
Dallas leverage ran out when they didn't sign him 2 years early like most teams are doing with their young QBs.

People are literally braindead if they believe Dak is going to suffer financially even in the slightest way.

 

[big dog cowboy]

My dude Dak just made 31.4M and will get a raise.
He's going to sign a deal worth insane money.
Yes, he has all the leverage and has had all the leverage.
Dallas leverage ran out when they didn't sign him 2 years early like most teams are doing with their young QBs.

People are literally braindead if they believe Dak is going to suffer financially even in the slightest way.

 

[Steve007]

My dude Dak just made 31.4M and will get a raise.
He's going to sign a deal worth insane money.
Yes, he has all the leverage and has had all the leverage.
Dallas leverage ran out when they didn't sign him 2 years early like most teams are doing with their young QBs.

People are literally braindead if they believe Dak is going to suffer financially even in the slightest way.

I have been hearing that all year long and it hasn't happened yet. No one says Dak is going to suffer financially.
No he doesn't have all the leverage. It's a negotiation. Each side has options. To say Dak has all the leverage is to say the Jones don't have options.
They do have options, so does Dak.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

My dude Dak just made 31.4M and will get a raise.
He's going to sign a deal worth insane money.
Yes, he has all the leverage and has had all the leverage.
Dallas leverage ran out when they didn't sign him 2 years early like most teams are doing with their young QBs.

People are literally braindead if they believe Dak is going to suffer financially even in the slightest way.

Tad is that you?

Tad Prescott@86Prescott

There is a reason I was never a @dallascowboys fan growing up or before they drafted @dak after today, who knows how much longer I’ll be cheering for them.

 

[jaythecowboy]

Great, let's give him the transition tag and let's see what he's worth. We can then either match it or take the 2 1st round picks.

Is it possible to transition tag Dak this offseason and hope that a depressed cap keeps other teams at bay? It seems unlikely to me that a team would offer $40 million a year plus two firsts in a year like 2021. Worst case scenario you end up in a pretty good spot to take one of the top QBs this year.

If Dak doesn't sign an offer sheet then he would be on the Cowboys' books for $38 million with no way to keep him the following year.

 

[jterrell]

I have been hearing that all year long and it hasn't happened yet. No one says Dak is going to suffer financially.
No he doesn't have all the leverage. It's a negotiation. Each side has options. To say Dak has all the leverage is to say the Jones don't have options.
They do have options, so does Dak.

Are you on serious? Once the deadline passed nothing can be signed.
You've been hearing how terrible the gaff was by Stephen from everyone with an actual brain because it is that painfully obvious.
It's so obvious that even a season-ending injury after 5 games won't stop Dak from making MORE money and having MORE leverage.

You certainly do not need to listen to me here. Google it. Ask anyone who has ever negotiated an NFL contract.

What I won't do is sit on these forums and listen to dummies scream nonsense into the echo chamber and not correct those utter insane fallacies.

Per Spotrac:
Market Value

• 4 yrs, $148,253,724
• Avg. Salary: $37,063,431
• NFL Rank: 3
• QB Rank: 3

Dak asked last year for 140M over 4 years. And got shot down.
Now Dallas has to pay him over market value just to tag him. 37.7M AND they can't realistically tag him a 3rd time.
So Dallas really has no, zero, none, nada leverage.

What Dallas actually needs is to extend him out on a 5 year deal that frees up cap space in this tighter cap in favor of later hits when the cap rises a ton.
That is if they want to address anything beyond the draft with this defense.

It would shock me zero if Dallas signs Dak to 5 years 200M. Yes 10M of that or so would be very hard to reach incentives and another 10M might be incentive based as well.
But they can sign that deal and eat about 10M in cap hit. Saving 27.7M next year.
That is Dak's leverage.
He has the keys to the tools they need(structure and restructure).
He won't sign anything long term that doesn't have 100M GTD and he just pocketed 31.4M this season.
Or Dallas pays him the 37.7M and then lets him walk an URFA. He makes 69M over 2 seasons and then signs a deal which would absolutely be over 200M where he'd the top free agent by a mile.
Dak will be no worse than the 3rd highest QB contract when he signs a long term deal.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Are you on serious? Once the deadline passed nothing can be signed.
You've been hearing how terrible the gaff was by Stephen from everyone with an actual brain because it is that painfully obvious.
It's so obvious that even a season-ending injury after 5 games won't stop Dak from making MORE money and having MORE leverage.

You certainly do not need to listen to me here. Google it. Ask anyone who has ever negotiated an NFL contract.

What I won't do is sit on these forums and listen to dummies scream nonsense into the echo chamber and not correct those utter insane fallacies.

Per Spotrac:
Market Value

• 4 yrs, $148,253,724
• Avg. Salary: $37,063,431
• NFL Rank: 3
• QB Rank: 3

Dak asked last year for 140M over 4 years. And got shot down.
Now Dallas has to pay him over market value just to tag him. 37.7M AND they can't realistically tag him a 3rd time.
So Dallas really has no, zero, none, nada leverage.

What Dallas actually needs is to extend him out on a 5 year deal that frees up cap space in this tighter cap in favor of later hits when the cap rises a ton.
That is if they want to address anything beyond the draft with this defense.

It would shock me zero if Dallas signs Dak to 5 years 200M. Yes 10M of that or so would be very hard to reach incentives and another 10M might be incentive based as well.
But they can sign that deal and eat about 10M in cap hit. Saving 27.7M next year.
That is Dak's leverage.
He has the keys to the tools they need(structure and restructure).
He won't sign anything long term that doesn't have 100M GTD and he just pocketed 31.4M this season.
Or Dallas pays him the 37.7M and then lets him walk an URFA. He makes 69M over 2 seasons and then signs a deal which would absolutely be over 200M where he'd the top free agent by a mile.
Dak will be no worse than the 3rd highest QB contract when he signs a long term deal.

 

[kskboys]

It was not the money Dak had a problem with. It was the years.

Which was incredibly stupid and short sighted on his part.

 

[kskboys]

Are you on serious? Once the deadline passed nothing can be signed.
You've been hearing how terrible the gaff was by Stephen from everyone with an actual brain because it is that painfully obvious.
It's so obvious that even a season-ending injury after 5 games won't stop Dak from making MORE money and having MORE leverage.

You certainly do not need to listen to me here. Google it. Ask anyone who has ever negotiated an NFL contract.

What I won't do is sit on these forums and listen to dummies scream nonsense into the echo chamber and not correct those utter insane fallacies.

Per Spotrac:
Market Value

• 4 yrs, $148,253,724
• Avg. Salary: $37,063,431
• NFL Rank: 3
• QB Rank: 3

Dak asked last year for 140M over 4 years. And got shot down.
Now Dallas has to pay him over market value just to tag him. 37.7M AND they can't realistically tag him a 3rd time.
So Dallas really has no, zero, none, nada leverage.

What Dallas actually needs is to extend him out on a 5 year deal that frees up cap space in this tighter cap in favor of later hits when the cap rises a ton.
That is if they want to address anything beyond the draft with this defense.

It would shock me zero if Dallas signs Dak to 5 years 200M. Yes 10M of that or so would be very hard to reach incentives and another 10M might be incentive based as well.
But they can sign that deal and eat about 10M in cap hit. Saving 27.7M next year.
That is Dak's leverage.
He has the keys to the tools they need(structure and restructure).
He won't sign anything long term that doesn't have 100M GTD and he just pocketed 31.4M this season.
Or Dallas pays him the 37.7M and then lets him walk an URFA. He makes 69M over 2 seasons and then signs a deal which would absolutely be over 200M where he'd the top free agent by a mile.
Dak will be no worse than the 3rd highest QB contract when he signs a long term deal.

What you do is make statements that are not necessarily true.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Which was incredibly stupid and short sighted on his part.

If you say so. He will make at least $68m this year and next. If the Cowboys don't give him what he wants then he will get a record-breaking contract in 2022 as a UFA.

 

[kskboys]

If you say so. He will make at least $68m this year and next. If the Cowboys don't give him what he wants then he will get a record-breaking contract in 2022 as a UFA.

That's not what was said. Insisting on a 4 year max deal ensures that DALL will not be able to put a super bowl team around him. The shorter term deal would screw the team.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

That's not what was said. Insisting on a 4 year max deal ensures that DALL will not be able to put a super bowl team around him. The shorter term deal would screw the team.

If you say so. You seem to like making decisions based on assumptions that are really unproven. It's awaste of time to argue as it's pretty self-evident.