Big 12 looking to add 4 PAC 12 teams

[jterrell]

Latest rumor is ESPN would commit 8M per team to Big12 for tier 3 TV only rights in an agreement to allow OUT to exit in 2024 with no penalty beyond exit fee.
This is just ahead of what ACC Network pays for tier 3 rights so a win for Big 12 if they can stomach allowing OUT to leave for 80M total.

This is intriguing because the leak gets out to Pac teams like Arizona/Colorado (who are flirting with the Big12 as they await numbers offered by ESPN) what their tier 3 rights would be worth.

 

[jterrell]

I'm surprised (if true) the Big Ten is really interested in bringing Arizona and Arizona State onboard. I'd be more interested in bringing on a competitive school like Boise State that's consistently ranked in the Top 25 for the better part of the past decade.

I do not believe they are.
I believe the B1G only wants Notre Dame but would attach Stanford to sweeten the pot for ND by adding another rivalry thus guaranteeing more rivalry games. Essentially this would mean they have the same type schedule as they do in ACC now. 4 rinalry game, 4 "non rivalry conf games", 3 OOC

2022 sched:

OSU
Marshall
Cal
UNC
BYU
Stanford
UNLV
Syracuse
Clemson
Navy
BC
USC

Possible 2024 type B1G schedule?

Navy --OOC
UNLV --OOC
Rutgers --B1G
Minn --B1G
Indiana --B1G
Nebraska --B1G
BYU --OOC
Stanford --B1G
PennSt --B1G
UCLA --B1G
USC --B1G
BC --OOC

 

[jterrell]

 

[terra]

That would be VERY interesting if it happened.

 

[Sydla]

That would be VERY interesting if it happened.

This MHver3 dude doesn't have a ton of credibility. He's been around since these mergers started happening years ago and throws a ton of crap on the wall hoping something sticks. He often contradicts himself, etc. I suspect he gets a couple of dribs and drabs of info that turns out accurate but most of his stuff tends to be off the wall and not very accurate.

 

[jterrell]

That would be VERY interesting if it happened.

Not sure about that guy's cred tbh. I have seen him post a lot and he has interesting stuff but I can't vouch for him.
It does seem Big12 has a very real option with CBS since they lost the SEC and have paramount+ to feed as well as network and cable channel.
He also noted that the SEC could buy their tier 3 TV rights at high rates(8m per school) to allow OUT leave in 2024 for only the original buy out price.

If that all happened that would likely be a very solid deal for the Big 12 and cement them as 3rd best contractually.

ESPN kinda gets to decide all this mess as they own the rights to PAC12 for next 30 days exclusively. --haha like NBA free agency right?
But if ESPN offers pretty low then perhaps they let PAC 12 wither to get rights to other conferences they will control.
ESPN is def the evil empire and shaped all this. --Fox Sports jumped in and got the LA schools to the B1G just ahead of ESPN's exclusive negotiating window.

 

[jterrell]

 

[jterrell]

 

[jterrell]

 

[jterrell]

 

[jterrell]

Also read that NBC could be a player for B12.
That NBC wants more than just Notre Dame and would to leverage B12 as their secondary source for college football.

Various thoughts:
Still think this could go a myriad of ways.
But if you are looking at best potential outcome for B12 then refusing an outright PAC merger is good.
Too many DOA programs in bad markets that are ambivalent about college football.
Much rather have 2-4-6 of those schools join the B12.
Then wait and see if SEC picks apart ACC so you can add higher value teams and get to 24 as securely the 3rd best conference in CFB.
something like:

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Texas Tech, BYU
Iowa State, Okla St, Kansas, Kansas State, Cincy, Louisville
TCU, HOU, Baylor, UCF, Miami, Georgia Tech
West Virginia, Boston College, Va Tech, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse

--assuming SEC takes Clemson, FSU, UNC, VA else they all become top targets.

 

[jterrell]

interesting article that's pure PAC12 stuff:

Pac-12 Coaches Talk Anonymously About Conference Foes for 2022 - AthlonSports.com | Expert Predictions, Picks, and Previews

 

[terra]

lots of things bubbling under the surface.

Some will make it to the top and some will sink to the bottom.

 

[jterrell]

lots of things bubbling under the surface.

Some will make it to the top and some will sink to the bottom.

Yup. It's all over the place right now.
B1G deal is definitely coming and it will be huge. Will it include Notre Dame piece?? Will it be Fox or NBC? Both?

SEC has real interest in a few ACC schools but we won't know jack for certain til they break the news.

Pac wise all we know is they hit the end of the exclusive negotiating period with no deal and no forward grant of rights. 10 teams seem willing to wait to see other numbers but until they get a grant of rights they are ripe for plucking.
Big 12 is a year away from going to market. Could really use a CFP appearance for Cincy, Baylor or OKST to boost that media rights value.

 

[jterrell]

Swarbrick suggested Notre Dame could enter into a new media rights deal early. He was also clear that NBC entering into business with the Big Ten was a positive for Notre Dame. As The Athletic reported months ago, Notre Dame was supportive of NBC adding college football inventory. It is unclear how much that change would boost the revenue available to Notre Dame in a future NBC contract.

“The more broadcasters, major networks, we keep involved in college football, the better it is for everybody. Because they’re invested. They want to promote the game,” Swarbrick said. “They want additional properties. So, I think it was a brilliant strategy by commissioner (Kevin) Warren. I think it played out marvelously for him. The timing could not have been better, and I think when they finally announce the number, it will be a pretty amazing one.”

“But it’s also perfect for Notre Dame. We need NBC to have more college football to more effectively promote our games and to talk about our games and to have NBC be seen in that light. So that was great for us that they got a big piece of this.”

If Swarbrick made any suggestion of conference affiliation benefitting Notre Dame, it was a nod toward geography, a factor that would seem to benefit the Big Ten, even as it expands to Los Angeles.

“It’s so hard for our kids to travel the way they do,” he said. “When you’re going to Tallahassee, and you start with a bus trip to Midway, and then you connect once along the way before you get there, and then you’re on a bus trying to get to campus, it’s probably 18, 16 hours that you’ve been involved in traveling. That’s tough to be a pre-med major, or a finance major and do that. So, we’re always looking for ways to make the scheduling easier. But it’s media, it’s CFP and it’s our Olympic sports.”

Jack Swarbrick: Big Ten-NBC deal ‘perfect’ for Notre Dame, Irish in ‘very good position’ - The Athletic

 

[kev8822]

Yup. It's all over the place right now.
B1G deal is definitely coming and it will be huge. Will it include Notre Dame piece?? Will it be Fox or NBC? Both?

SEC has real interest in a few ACC schools but we won't know jack for certain til they break the news.

Pac wise all we know is they hit the end of the exclusive negotiating period with no deal and no forward grant of rights. 10 teams seem willing to wait to see other numbers but until they get a grant of rights they are ripe for plucking.
Big 12 is a year away from going to market. Could really use a CFP appearance for Cincy, Baylor or OKST to boost that media rights value.

Rumors are Fox with the Big Noon kickoff, CBS with the 3:30 game, and NBC with a 7:30 game.

 

[jterrell]

Rumors are Fox with the Big Noon kickoff, CBS with the 3:30 game, and NBC with a 7:30 game.

Yup. Massive deal.
No ESPN which is wild given they have like 6 networks to fill content for.

PAC should be next shoe to drop as the B1G deal is all but done.
Longer PAC goes without a grant of rights and signed deal, the scarier it has to become for them.

 

[terra]

Swarbrick suggested Notre Dame could enter into a new media rights deal early. He was also clear that NBC entering into business with the Big Ten was a positive for Notre Dame. As The Athletic reported months ago, Notre Dame was supportive of NBC adding college football inventory. It is unclear how much that change would boost the revenue available to Notre Dame in a future NBC contract.

“The more broadcasters, major networks, we keep involved in college football, the better it is for everybody. Because they’re invested. They want to promote the game,” Swarbrick said. “They want additional properties. So, I think it was a brilliant strategy by commissioner (Kevin) Warren. I think it played out marvelously for him. The timing could not have been better, and I think when they finally announce the number, it will be a pretty amazing one.”

“But it’s also perfect for Notre Dame. We need NBC to have more college football to more effectively promote our games and to talk about our games and to have NBC be seen in that light. So that was great for us that they got a big piece of this.”

If Swarbrick made any suggestion of conference affiliation benefitting Notre Dame, it was a nod toward geography, a factor that would seem to benefit the Big Ten, even as it expands to Los Angeles.

“It’s so hard for our kids to travel the way they do,” he said. “When you’re going to Tallahassee, and you start with a bus trip to Midway, and then you connect once along the way before you get there, and then you’re on a bus trying to get to campus, it’s probably 18, 16 hours that you’ve been involved in traveling. That’s tough to be a pre-med major, or a finance major and do that. So, we’re always looking for ways to make the scheduling easier. But it’s media, it’s CFP and it’s our Olympic sports.”

Jack Swarbrick: Big Ten-NBC deal ‘perfect’ for Notre Dame, Irish in ‘very good position’ - The Athletic

Uh, Jack, A pre Med guy I can see but a financial major? Nah.

 

[DFWJC]

Uh, Jack, A pre Med guy I can see but a financial major? Nah.

Science labs kill you, for starters. Almost always in the afternoon or early evenings when practice is going on. And of course, you can't really fall behind or make up the work.
3-4 of those per semester can be brutal.

And yeah, a business major is not comparable.

 

[csirl]

At some stage ND will have to join a conference. A few years of mediocre teams could kill their rights values - no team is good forever. Better doing it sooner when they have clout. They'll also face a Washington Football Team scenario in the coming years re: their name/logo which will hurt income and reputation.