First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[BoyzBlaster]

Unfortunately the alternative is to do what the cowboys have done which results in decade after decade after decade of mediocrity.

 

[CowboyFrog]

We get distracted by the dak debate but the larger issue is these hit/miss numbers are not exclusive to the quarterback position. It may be a little bit longer odds given that they tend to get overdrafted more however the first round the of the draft is pretty 50/50.

This is the problem with the cowboys draft only approach to the offseason. Dak, Lance, or a rookies qb I’m not sure it really matters much for 2024. Jerry/Stephen simply have not put this team in a position to succeed this year.

your top 2 players were on a podcast talking about "Bags of money" after getting destroyed at home in the playoffs...the problem runs MUCH deeper than this offseason in my opinion..but yeah he thinks he can fill these gaps in the draft and thats just not possible..

 

[FanofJerry]

Unfortunately the alternative is to do what the cowboys have done which results in decade after decade after decade of mediocrity.

Maybe its Jerry's fault and young, creative coaches wont come here...

But I cant remember a young, creative HC here other than Red. And I dont even know if you can call him creative. He seemed like a poker player...running the ball directly into the back of the center on 1st and 2nd down for a total of 3 yards....and then doing the same thing again on 3rd and 7. Thats not creative to me...thats playing poker.

Dallas needs to try younger HC's. Maybe things change once Stephen has total control.

The blame is on the overpaid players for playoff losses, but I think its been bad playoff game plans.

No one wants to talk about that though...because there is a underlining message that is constant on this boards threads....and that is being pro-not-paying-players. Just constant blame for a team loss on one position.

 

[khiladi]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

I could have told you Bryce Young was going to be a bust and to pick him over Cj Stroud was the height of idiocy..

 

[khiladi]

It's settled then we keep and give Dak 60 million a year and we hope the NFC East remains doggy in stature and get blown out like punks in the playoffs.
Yep, COWBOYS!!!!!

Like what does this listing even prove? None of it is relevant to the fact Dak is a loser that had 8 years to get it done and flopped. Rush was an undrafted FA and was 5-1 with Dak’s “team”.

 

[CowboyFrog]

Maybe its Jerry's fault and young, creative coaches wont come here...

But I cant remember a young, creative HC here other than Red. And I dont even know if you can call him creative. He seemed like a poker player...running the ball directly into the back of the center on 1st and 2nd down for a total of 3 yards....and then doing the same thing again on 3rd and 7. Thats not creative to me...thats playing poker.

Dallas needs to try younger HC's. Maybe things change once Stephen has total control.

The blame is on the overpaid players for playoff losses, but I think its been bad playoff game plans.

No one wants to talk about that though...because there is a underlining message that is constant on this boards threads....and that is being pro-not-paying-players. Just constant blame for a team loss on one position.

yup 100%..echo chambers run cheap here.

 

[khiladi]

In fact, this whole “first team” QBs are busts I absurd, as this applies to all first round draft picks. Dak is a back-up QB that lucked into an ideal scenario to continue his career and make loads of money. He was successful already, given this context. Now be-gone Dak…. We are trying to win, not continue to beat up horrible teams and get walloped in the play-offs while I throw pick-6s.

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

To summarize:

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

By this logic, Jerry is on the right track. Don’t make any changes and run it back, as 12-5 is more likely with this group.

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Like what does this even mean? None of it is relevant to the fact Dak is a loser that had 8 years to get it done and flopped. Rush was an undrafted FA and was 5-1 with Dak’s “team”.

This is more like a social phenomenon and the game of football is a non-factor.
No Cowboy fan after what we have witnessed the past 8 years (The key word is COWBOY FAN) can justify wanting Prescott extended and for a ton of cash to boot!
Laugh at their posts as in any football format they cannot be taken seriously.

 

[khiladi]

This is more like a social phenomenon and the game of football is a non-factor.
No Cowboy fan after what we have witnessed the past 8 years (The key word is COWBOY FAN) can justify wanting Prescott extended and for a ton of cash to boot!
Laugh at their posts as in any football format they cannot be taken seriously.

and a lot of these QBs are complete hype and nothing but a product of the moment. Justin Fields and Tua for example and they are also expected to resurrect a garbage franchise that is drafting first for a reason. They are not walking into a SB-ready roster that complements their skill-set.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

And what is it in the other rounds? Because that is the comparison that should be made. All this proves is such talent is rare, but still picking in the first round is the best chance that you’ve got at grabbing a franchise QB.

I think somebody posted that. First round has more success. Also the higher in the round the better. That's how it should work anyway. But people like to point to Purdy.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Problem with those 1st round picks is probably going to a trash team. Dak stepped into a ready bake Playoff contender, lucky him.

Build a real good team over throwing crazy money at a QB who isn't getting your team over the hump. Rush (UDFA) has a 5-1 record, he had a good team backing him up. 1st round to UDFA build the team. Brock Purdy example too.

This Rush had a 5-1 record is such a BS. The defense averaged 13 points a game and scored in that stretch. Give me that defense and we win a championship.

And seems you like to go based on exception rather than the rule. Purdy is an Anatoly. How manyb7th rounders have made it?

And lastly, it all requires a GM that can actually build a team. Something we don't have

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

This Rush had a 5-1 record is such a BS. The defense averaged 13 points a game and scored in that stretch. Give me that defense and we win a championship.

And seems you like to go based on exception rather than the rule. Purdy is an Anatoly. How manyb7th rounders have made it?

And lastly, it all requires a GM that can actually build a team. Something we don't have

Coop didnt hand the other teams 14 free points in the first half.
GB was no juggernaut....in our own house.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Coop didnt hand the other teams 14 free points in the first half.
GB was no juggernaut....in our own house.

In every game? Or just the one fame you want to pick on? Did we spot the other team 14 points every game? Come on dude. Facts are the first time a team scored more than 20 points against Cowboys Rush couldn't rally the offense

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

In every game? Or just the one fame you want to pick on? Did we spot the other team 14 points every game? Come on dude. Facts are the first time a team scored more than 20 points against Cowboys Rush couldn't rally the offense

Dak is our superstar 30+ mill mvp candidate unbelievable leader STARTING quartetback ready for a playoff game at home. Im gonna be harder on him than coop.

If you wanna cry on that....cool. knock yourself out.

 

[Hadenough]

I’ve always said your chances of drafting a bust at QB in the first round is about 50%.

And your chances of winning a SB with a 4th round QB are 0%.

 

[Hadenough]

The Cowboys throw away so many early round picks on busts they might as well start drafting QBs.

 

[KJJ]

And your chances of winning a SB with a 4th round QB are 0%.

There’s been lower round QBs win SBs. Tom Brady and Mark Rypien were 6th round picks. Roger Staubach was a 12th round pick. Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB. There’s been several QBs drafted after the first round win SBs, including at least a couple in the third round. It’s silly to discount any QB due to their draft status.

 

[1942willys]

The Cowboys throw away so many early round picks on busts they might as well start drafting QBs.

well if you throw out the second rd picks we actually do very well at the top of the draft. Our first rd picks only have a few duds in the last fifteen years.

 

[1942willys]

There’s been lower round QBs win SBs. Tom Brady and Mark Rypien were 6th round picks. Roger Staubach was a 12th round pick. Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB. There’s been several QBs drafted after the first round win SBs, including at least a couple in the third round.

Just how long ago were all those examples? As important as QBs were twenty to thirty years ago and more, they are even more so now. You have to rely on them to do so much more then they used to. Lets face it: Troy and Roger had STACKED teams. Well Troy did until his last few years anyway. PRetty much all your examples were from teams that were stacked,

 

[PAPPYDOG]

There’s been lower round QBs win SBs. Tom Brady and Mark Rypien were 6th round picks. Roger Staubach was a 12th round pick. Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB. There’s been several QBs drafted after the first round win SBs, including at least a couple in the third round. It’s silly to discount any QB due to their draft status.

Yep very true as I have a hard time myself separating Dak and Tom Brady jeez so confusing I swear they are the same player or identical twins with the only exception of this.........................