First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[darthseinfeld]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Some things that stand out. Id call Herbert a home run. Id call Winston, and Tanahill as mix results. They have Mark Sanchez as mixed, and Tanahill as a miss and Tanahill has earns two starter level contract extentions

 

[Blitzen]

its not the normal "Find a QB" growing pains I'm worried about..this will be Jerry and Son doing this so they could set a new standard for bad...think of how lucky they got with the QB plans they have had so far...and UDFA and 4th round "Damn we missed the 3 guys we wanted" pick...so yeah I'm gonna side eye the posters saying "Could it be any worse" yeah it could pay attention to who is driving this boat!

You think being extremely bad for a few seasons is such a terrible thing? Think what would happen to ratings if the Cowboys won fewer than 5 games per season for 3 seasons straight. If something like that happens, the league will start pulling them off national broadcasts…

The only thing that the Jones’ actually care about. The one thing that will actually rattle their cage. That could actually start a true rebuild.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dak is our superstar 30+ mill mvp candidate unbelievable leader STARTING quartetback ready for a playoff game at home. Im gonna be harder on him than coop.

If you wanna cry on that....cool. knock yourself out.

what?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

You proved my point, Rush had a good team around him. Purdy has a good team around him. So, just build a good team, and don't over pay a QB that's not elite.

Defense played at a level I haven't seen them play when Rush was QB. perhaps knowing they have to step up or else. when they didn't it was obvious we lsot.
yes, just build a good team. can Jerry build a good team? or is he going to just have Safeties play LB?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

There’s been lower round QBs win SBs. Tom Brady and Mark Rypien were 6th round picks. Roger Staubach was a 12th round pick. Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB. There’s been several QBs drafted after the first round win SBs, including at least a couple in the third round. It’s silly to discount any QB due to their draft status.

back in Rogers time things were different. no cap. and Rodgers fell because he went to the navy and wasn't available for 2 years to finish his service, else probably would have been first rounder. he did win the heisman and was phenomonal in college.

and there is one brady in 55 years of NFL. that's exception. the rest of the lower round QBs, Rypien, Foles, Purdy (if you want to include him) had very strong teams around them. build a strong team. our GM is not capable of building a strong team. he thinks Safeties can play LB.

 

[MyFairLady]

Excited to see the 40 million dollar baby who poops his diaper in the playoffs become a 60 million dollar baby who poops his diaper in the playoffs.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dak is the only quarterback in NFL salary cap history to be allowed to start for the same team after so many years of early round losses. I posted it in a thread not long ago with the data to back it up. The only player who comes close is of course, Tony Romo. Dalton on the Bengals had a streak running but they kicked him to the curb. I think Warren Moon was the only quarterback I could find since the 1980s who lasted so long on one team with so many early exits.

So what does that mean if we sign Dak and hope for a Super Bowl? It means we are really playing against the odds, we are playing against the house and everything else. We hold onto our coaches too long, we hold onto our quarterbacks too long, and we definitely hold onto our owner/GMs too long. I’m sure there will be some growing pains because I do not fool myself thinking that Trey Lance is the future, but who‘s fault is that? That would be ol’Jethro.

Lamar Jackson? he is 2-4 in the playoffs with some early exits.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Some things that stand out. Id call Herbert a home run. Id call Winston, and Tanahill as mix results. They have Mark Sanchez as mixed, and Tanahill as a miss and Tanahill has earns two starter level contract extentions

how is herbert a home run? he hasn't done much. throws a pretty spiral though.

 

[KJJ]

and there is one brady in 55 years of NFL. that's exception. the rest of the lower round QBs, Rypien, Foles, Purdy (if you want to include him) had very strong teams around them. build a strong team. our GM is not capable of building a strong team. he thinks Safeties can play LB.

The top two greatest QBs of all-time with 11 SB championships between them were 3rd and 6th round picks.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Lamar Jackson? he is 2-4 in the playoffs with some early exits.

I don’t remember his previous seasons, but he was in the conference championship this year.

 

[khiladi]

Imagine saying the “defense” is the reason Cooper Rush went 4-1.

They beat the Bengals 20-17, and were ahead 17-3 going into the third. The only reason the Game got close was because Schultz fumbled in Bengals territory when Dallas was moving the ball. Irrespective, Rush led them on the game winning drive.

Against the Giants, it was 13-13 going into the 4th and Rush led them to 10 points in the 4th, winning the game. In fact they scored 17 straight.

Against the Commanders, it was 25-10. Rush scored 13 points after the half.

Against the Rams, Dallas was up 16-13 going in the half and they won 23-13. And the last 2 FGs were time consuming drives of close to 7 minutes and 5:37 minutes.

The excuses that the defense “won” was the same excuses the Dak fanboys said Dalton had a better record that Dak for.

 

[Mr_437]

Defense played at a level I haven't seen them play when Rush was QB. perhaps knowing they have to step up or else. when they didn't it was obvious we lsot.
yes, just build a good team. can Jerry build a good team? or is he going to just have Safeties play LB?

Fair question about Jerry, no I don't believe in him, but maybe he can get out the way and McClay cook...that's the only hope.

The Defense and STs made big plays in those games, and felt like they had to win the game and did help a lot.

 

[FanofJerry]

Next 3 reasonable posters that give a number figure on how many years the modern QB has been going on for wins a prize.

20 years?

10 years?

What is a reasonable number of years back that the game hasnt changed so much that you can grade QB's?

Since 2000? Is that a reasonable time frame? Or did something big change the game for QB's in the past 10 years?

 

[Qcard]

And people trust Jerry and co. to do what most can't lol. Hit a home run lol.

 

[Qcard]

I gotta be honest though this CBS article is far more charitable than I am. Justin Fields is a miss and there is a reason no one wants him as their starter. Giving Trevor Lawrence "Solid Result" is hilarious to me when we are 3 years into his career and he has had maybe 1/3 of that be good football (last half of 2nd year and first half of year 3) and I have to lower the bar to define what is good. Also calling Daniel Jones a "Mixed Result" is insulting to everyone else on that list. He is also a clear miss who will be a career backup.

Basically they are being WAY too generous with what gets into mixed result to even get that number as high as it is.

CBS article exposed the QB Worshiping Derangement Syndrome amongst the Dak Haters

 

[Flamma]

Next 3 reasonable posters that give a number figure on how many years the modern QB has been going on for wins a prize.

20 years?

10 years?

What is a reasonable number of years back that the game hasnt changed so much that you can grade QB's?

Since 2000? Is that a reasonable time frame? Or did something big change the game for QB's in the past 10 years?

I think 2000 is a good year. Maybe 2005 at most. Since then, the thing QBs rarely see is an elite defense. There are good defenses, but almost never great defenses anymore. The last one was the 2013 Seahawks. They were an outlier.

Another thing you could consider is the change to rookie contracts in 2011. That has an impact on team building and gives certain advantages to QBs still on rookie contracts. But I'd still say anywhere between 2000-2005.

 

[ghst187]

Unlike every other position a Miss at QB means your entire franchise is going to suck for a few years.

Unless you are SF and get lucky with the last pick in the draft after busting hugely at 3

 

[FanofJerry]

Out of 768 possible tries in 24 years...only 13 different QB's have won a Super Bowl.

I dont even care to look how many of those guys was picked #1 overall. Or...even picked in the top 3 of QB's their draft year.

 

[kskboys]

The problem with this is you could say every miss was overdrafted..especially at QB, this league is so hungry for them there will always be "Overdrafts" at the position..I'm for drafting a QB..I'm also very clear on who will be drafting this QB and what that might look like with this FO.....

No, you can't. That's a completely different topic.

 

[kskboys]

Out of 768 possible tries in 24 years...only 13 different QB's have won a Super Bowl.

I dont even care to look how many of those guys was picked #1 overall. Or...even picked in the top 3 of QB's their draft year.

Not winning a super bowl doesn't mean the QB wasn't good.

Man, you guys are having major issues w/ some very simple concepts.