Percy's Stats on Dak

[Brooksey]

So you are claiming that a bad QB has a great QB rating and great stats.

You are also one of the leaders of the "Dez is still awesome" fan club otherwise known as the Dez Boiz.

Dak and Dez both stink right now, the offense as a whole stinks. Don't forget your part as a Dez hater Xman, does that make you a Dak apologist? I don't think so but only you know that.

 

[xwalker]

Dak and Dez both stink right now, the offense as a whole stinks. Don't forget your part as a Dez hater Xman, does that make you a Dak apologist? I don't think so but only you know that.

The point is that Dak has the ability to be really good which he has been in games with less than 40% pressure.

People talking about his general mechanics and accuracy appear to be wrong.

 

[Brooksey]

The point is that Dak has the ability to be really good which he has been in games with less than 40% pressure.

People talking about his general mechanics and accuracy appear to be wrong.

Stats like this don't tell the whole picture, you know that. If you can't see he's struggling on certain NFL passes, regardless of pressure..take another look.

 

[dfense]

@percyhoward posted some some stats in various threads.

I wanted to make certain that everyone sees these stats so I did a cut and paste from some of those posts to this thread.

Prescott's passer rating

In games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks 7
2016
67.6 (3 games)
2017
66.1 (8 games)

In games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016
109.6 (14 games)
2017
112.9 (8 games)

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This is 2016-17 passing when pressured in games in which the QB was pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks. (min 100 att)

Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
Mariota 91 190 1176 12 3 82.3
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
Brees 116 211 1260 2 5 66.1
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
Carr 115 231 1434 5 12 55.0
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3

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Note how the mechanics/accuracy issues don't seem to affect the 600 career attempts in games when he's pressured less than 40% of the time in the game.

Dak
2016 287 of 403 3378 yd 22 td 2 int 112.5
2017 130 of 203 1619 yd 16 td 1 int 112.9
career 417 of 606 (68.8%) 4997 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.6

Unless you expect Dak (above) to be considerably better than Brady (below) in these games, you have to conclude that mechanics/accuracy isn't an issue in these games.

Brady
2016 309 of 445 3679 yd 27 td 3 int 111.8
2017 265 of 394 3226 yd 23 td 5 int 106.4
both 574 of 839 (68.4%) 6905 yd (8.2 ypa) 50 td 8 int 109.2

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Prescott was Top 5 in % of passing yards that were air yards (yards before catch)
1 Winston 65.1%
2 Wentz 63.9%
3 Wilson 61.8%
4 Prescott 60.6%
5 Brady 59.6%

Stats don't tell the whole story.

 

[xwalker]

Stats don't tell the whole story.

You put in a lot of effort on this post...

 

[Silverstar]

Keeping Dak clean in the pocket can only produce better results for the offense.

We should continue to draft good OL if available.

If Nelson drops to 19 for example...you take him!

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

The vast majority of Dak haters are mad that Romo is gone and/or they are Dez apologists.

Just a wild guess on your part. First off, I don't know that there is a huge number of Dak haters. I think most are hopeful that he is our next long term QB but they need to see the improvement. 2017 was not an improvement and at times was downright embarrassing. Doesn't mean the book is written on him.

As for Dez, he still has skills but he is making himself look bad with drops and all the sideline rants. Dak doesn't seem to be able to consistently get him the ball on back shoulders and overthrows him a lot. Joint issue. Thing is, if we got rid of Dez, I don't think it makes much of a difference...with Dak he isn't a game breaker like he was with Romo.

 

[JDSmith]

Although 40% is a nice cutoff, it's not a big difference in the amount of actual pressures. I think the key is to look at the < and > and see how much difference there is, and more importantly when in the game he's under pressure. Dak attempted 490 passes, add in the 32 sacks and we'll throw in half of the rushing attempts because they probably started out as passes - that means Dak dropped back 550 times on the season or 34.blah blah blah per game. So his cutoff for 40% pressure is 13.75. If he was pressured 13 times it was 37.8%, if they got near him once more it goes up to 40.7%. I don't think that anyone is going to assume that the one extra pressure is going to put him in the tank. Especially since it might not come until the last play of the game and I don't think that numbers for the previous 33 drop backs will magically change because of that pressure.

What I'd like to see is first quarter pressure. From what I've observed Dak gets happy feet when he feels pressure early and it affects the rest of his game. If I were a DC I'd throw everything at Dak the first five times he dropped back, because if I can get pressure on him 2 or 3 times and make him uncomfortable he's going to get skittish and forget his footwork for the afternoon.

 

[dogberry]

When Smith goes down can Martin handle the left tackle spot?

What are the odds that a third round guard is easier to find for Martin than a third round tackle can be found for Smith?

Or should we just go for the last first round talent like we did for Frederick and Lawrence?

 

[erod]

QB rating is a dumb stat.

Last year, Dak had a 108 rating against the Vikings. He only completed 12 passes for 139 yards. Drew Brees calls that a first quarter.

Dak threw for 268 yards or more twice this season. That is a pedestrian number for an NFL quarterback.

 

[khiladi]

When your posting time of holding the ball as 3.6 last year and 3.1 this year, you know it’s a bunch of crock considering there is no time to accurately gage such a minor difference except by ‘counting it’ off from the screen.

Which clock is measuring this?

 

[khiladi]

Again, one can simply say how much of this pressure is Dak’s inability to correctly decipher a defense at the line pre-snap? Dak’s pressure is often caused by his footwork and pocket presence being so bad.

And % in passing yards is also not indicative of much, considering a QBs attempts in a game.. The less you throw, one intermediate pass game can alter your % in passing yards much more significant than a guy who throws ten or even five times more a game.

A lot of these stats are simply meaningless.

If Dak isn’t pressured.. besides the fact again pressure is subjective and dictated by the judgment of the guy compiling the stats, so what? Weeden threw over 70% completion percentage when he started here during his stretch of four games starting.. any professional QB given time can make a pass while checking down most of the time..

 

[khiladi]

Thanks for taking the time to do all of this, greatly appreciated. Even Aikman looked ordinary his first year, reference 11 sack game by Eagles, to the point that Jimmy J drafted Steve Walsh as a potential replacement.

Quick hitting routes, legal picks, rubs, those will help compared to our routes that at least to me most opposing DB's know exactly where the ball is headed resulting in tight coverages..

Aikman had Dave Schula as his OC that year...

 

[jterrell]

Gotta love short-sighted fan narratives.
2016 Coach of Year should be fired in 2017 because team went 9-7 without it's two best offensive players for stretches.
Dak who is 24 years old, 22-11 as a Cowboys starting QB and has a QB rating of over 88 can't be the franchise QB and need so be replaced.
Cool stories emo-bros.

 

[jterrell]

QB rating is a dumb stat.

Last year, Dak had a 108 rating against the Vikings. He only completed 12 passes for 139 yards. Drew Brees calls that a first quarter.

Dak threw for 268 yards or more twice this season. That is a pedestrian number for an NFL quarterback.

Were you saying that when Troy Aikman was QB?

 

[khiladi]

The problem is when he is pressured >40% of the time.

Then Dak becomes a far below average QB. He hears footsteps even when they aren't there. The QB differential from when he is pressured <40% and >40% of the time is greater than almost every QB in the league.

The problem is, even taking into account the subjectivity ogbyhese stats, Dak hardly passes compared to guys being compared against. Some have close to 100 more attempts.

So how bad would Dak be if he’s throwing as much as these QBs?

 

[khiladi]

Were you saying that when Troy Aikman was QB?

You mean when DBs could put their hands on WRs? And you guys are complaining about the alleged ‘lack of separation’ Dak’s WRs are getting to excuse his play..

Dak wouldn’t finish a year in that era.

 

[JDSmith]

Aikman had Dave Schula as his OC that year...

And Walsh had already been drafted before Troy ever played, because when Troy got knocked out against Arizona Walsh finished the season and got the only win.

The 11 sack game came later, third game of 1991. We actually did have Norv for that one, but unfortunately he couldn't block (neither could anyone else that day).

 

[khiladi]

And Walsh had already been drafted before Troy ever played, because when Troy got knocked out against Arizona Walsh finished the season and got the only win.

The 11 sack game came later, third game of 1991. We actually did have Norv for that one, but unfortunately he couldn't block (neither could anyone else that day).

That, I believe, was against the Eagles with the late Jerome Brown, White and I forget who else on the line and they were absolutely destroying offenses that year to start the season.

But we adjusted..

And Aikman improved from year 1 to year 2, he didn’t ‘regress’ like Dak did..

 

[JDSmith]

That, I believe, was against the Eagles with the late Jerome Brown, White and I forget who else on the line and they were absolutely destroying offenses that year to start the season.

But we adjusted..

And Aikman improved from year 1 to year 2, he didn’t ‘regress’ like Dak did..

Yeah, that game is on youtube. It's ugly. And during the game they show a clip of the week 15 game from the season before where the Eagles knocked Troy out for the rest of that season. And though we adjusted, poor Troy didn't finish the season - for the third time in 3 tries. I don't think people remember how badly QBs got hit back in the day. I see too many posts talking about Troy and early career struggles - Dak hasn't seen the kind of pressure Troy did early on. I'm not sure Dak could have played in that NFL, regardless of his physical traits.