Percy's Stats on Dak

[percyhoward]

When your posting time of holding the ball as 3.6 last year and 3.1 this year, you know it’s a bunch of crock considering there is no time to accurately gage such a minor difference except by ‘counting it’ off from the screen.

Which clock is measuring this?

It's obviously an average.

 

[percyhoward]

What I'd like to see is first quarter pressure. From what I've observed Dak gets happy feet when he feels pressure early and it affects the rest of his game. If I were a DC I'd throw everything at Dak the first five times he dropped back, because if I can get pressure on him 2 or 3 times and make him uncomfortable he's going to get skittish and forget his footwork for the afternoon.

I'd like to see the breakdown by quarter myself, but I don't have access to that information. I think the reason you don't see teams bringing the kitchen sink early in games is because this offense has been excellent against the blitz over the last two seasons -- when the starting OL are on the field.

 

[xwalker]

Of course he has a mechanics and footwork issue. When he feels like he is being pressured...even when he isn't. His accuracy and mechanics plummet.

It shows he has the ability.

His QB rating on snaps while under pressure in the less than 40% pressure games is good.

He can make the throws and make them accurately even under pressure but his mindset changes when there is too much pressure. That is common for young QBs.

People have claimed he just can't make accurate throws which is not true.

 

[Brooksey]

There is nothing in the numbers that shows he is perfect when not pressured, the evidence is only clear that he is very good (and ironically, even very good under pressure) when not pressured often in games, and that his performance drops substantially when he is pressured an inordinate amount of times.

While there are always things a young QB can work on to improve mechanics, accuracy, pocket presence, and understanding of defenses, I think the biggest need for improvement is in how he responds play after play in games when pressured often -- even with no pressure on a particular play. That may come as he sharpens his skills, it may come with more game experience, or it may not come at all.

I can agree with that..most QB's who don't make it in the NFL struggle with reading defenses and playing in the moment. If he's having mechanical breakdowns based on being hit in the past or being pressured then hopefully there's a Dr. Bob Rotella for Qb's because he needs to spend some time addressing it. He seems like a hardworking kid, Brady figured out that it's a mental game of not just reading defenses but playing in the NOW. The last down is in the past and the future results (negative or positive) are not something you can think about just before the play or during the throw.
If you get sacked 4 times, you have to be able play the next down like you have the best protection in the league. The fact that it's going on week to week means he's thinking about it and when you press sometimes you start to think about mechanics "during" the throw. It's not good and hopefully that's not happening. The only one who knows is Dak and his head doctor.

We'll see what happens.. although concerned I am rooting for him.

 

[erod]

Then that's fair and you are at least being consistent.
I also tend to agree to a tiny extent but you also have to decide what offense you want to run and which is most effective.
We had Romo here and won nothing so I'm not sure I need a guy to sling it 50 times a game.

Also worth noting Brees is a ONE time Super Bowl winner even with all his passing yardage.
He's only .500 the last 4 seasons combined.
Dak is 22-10 and has never finished a season at .500.

I know defense is a factor but hard to call the 2016 Dallas defense good.

How many passes did Dak complete this year that traveled in the air more than 20 yards downfield?

(And Romo didn't sling it 50 times a games in 2014 when he finally had a legitimate offense.)

 

[dfense]

You put in a lot of effort on this post...

Short and accurate. That's me.

 

[xwalker]

When your posting time of holding the ball as 3.6 last year and 3.1 this year, you know it’s a bunch of crock considering there is no time to accurately gage such a minor difference except by ‘counting it’ off from the screen.

Which clock is measuring this?

They have something called next gen stats. There is a sensor in the ball a d sensors around the field.

They can measure ball speed and many other things.

Even without that it would not be difficult to measure the time with a stop watch.

Some video editing programs can measure time because the frame rate is a known number. At 30 frames per second that is 33.3 milliseconds per frame. That is the accuracy which can be acheived using the video editing program. That's 0.0333 seconds when you only need 0.1 seconds of accuracy.

 

[JDSmith]

Then that's fair and you are at least being consistent.
I also tend to agree to a tiny extent but you also have to decide what offense you want to run and which is most effective.
We had Romo here and won nothing so I'm not sure I need a guy to sling it 50 times a game.

Also worth noting Brees is a ONE time Super Bowl winner even with all his passing yardage.
He's only .500 the last 4 seasons combined.
Dak is 22-10 and has never finished a season at .500.

I know defense is a factor but hard to call the 2016 Dallas defense good.

In 2014 Romo threw it 29 times per game in 2014. The ideal for the offense is not to throw it over and over, that's something they did because the running game wasn't good enough.

And Dak isn't 22 - 10, the team is while he's playing QB. Just like Brees isn't winning and losing games in NO. Dak, Brees, Weeden - they are not magical - they don't make other players better or worse. They can improve or hurt their team's chances, like any player, but moreso because they get the ball every play. But you have to step away from the record talk to actually discuss the play of the individual, they are completely different things. Trent Dilfer was 11 - 1, including a Super Bowl, for the 2000 Ravens.

 

[percyhoward]

They have something called next gen stats. There is a sensor in the ball a d sensors around the field.

They can measure ball speed and many other things.

Even without that it would not be difficult to measure the time with a stop watch.

Some video editing programs can measure time because the frame rate is a known number. At 30 frames per second that is 33.3 milliseconds per frame. That is the accuracy which can be acheived using the video editing program. That's 0.0333 seconds when you only need 0.1 seconds of accuracy.

I had assumed they were just averages. For example, we know Zeke's career ypc is 4.6 without anyone ever having measured a 4.6-yard run. But now that you mention it, I'm sure you're at least partly right, because NextGen Stats does include time to throw, although it doesn't include time to scramble and time to sack.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It shows he has the ability.

His QB rating on snaps while under pressure in the less than 40% pressure games is good.

He can make the throws and make them accurately even under pressure but his mindset changes when there is too much pressure. That is common for young QBs.

People have claimed he just can't make accurate throws which is not true.

I'd argue that the accuracy in games when pressured less than 40% isn't great. It is easily arguable that in games where the pressure is greater than 40% balls that were merely inaccurate but catchable become uncatchable.

For example in a game where pressure is less than 40% he may place a ball that goes for 15 yards but with more anticipation, timing and accuracy that same pitch and catch could go for 30. Whereas in the high pressure games that same pass goes for zero.

More analysis is needed. But even in games where things are going well. Dak has left some things to be desired despite traditional rate statistics still being good.

 

[percyhoward]

I'd argue that the accuracy in games when pressured less than 40% isn't great.

Here are the guys you'd be comparing him with.

< 40% pressure games only, 2017
from clean pocket
Smith 119.6
Prescott 115.4
Goff 114.9
Brees 113.4
Keenum 110.6
Wilson 109.4
Stafford 109.4
Wentz 109.2
Cousins 106.3
Rthlsbrgr 103.4
Brady 100.8
Ryan 100.3
Rivers 99.7
Carr 99.5
Winston 95.4

when pressured
Brady 116.1
Prescott 92.3
Keenum 83.7
Winston 81.4
Wentz 81.3
Stafford 80.0
Cousins 79.4
Goff 77.2
Smith 74.0
Ryan 66.8
Brees 59.2
Rivers 57.8
Rthlsbrgr 57.7
Wilson 52.7
Carr 50.4

 

[jterrell]

In 2014 Romo threw it 29 times per game in 2014. The ideal for the offense is not to throw it over and over, that's something they did because the running game wasn't good enough.

And Dak isn't 22 - 10, the team is while he's playing QB. Just like Brees isn't winning and losing games in NO. Dak, Brees, Weeden - they are not magical - they don't make other players better or worse. They can improve or hurt their team's chances, like any player, but moreso because they get the ball every play. But you have to step away from the record talk to actually discuss the play of the individual, they are completely different things. Trent Dilfer was 11 - 1, including a Super Bowl, for the 2000 Ravens.

And in 2014 with Dallas having success Romo averaged the least passing yards per game he had in 8 seasons.
My point was passing yards aren't necessarily a good barometer of QB play or overall success.
In fact that's the biggest reason Aikman created his own efficiency ratings.

QBs get judges by wins just like head coaches. It comes with the territory.
Job 1 for a QB is score 1 more point than the opponent every week.
Nothing else really matters.

 

[JDSmith]

QBs get judges by wins just like head coaches. It comes with the territory.
Job 1 for a QB is score 1 more point than the opponent every week.
Nothing else really matters.

Just look at what you described as job 1 for the QB. How can he score more than the opponent when he has no control over what the opponent scores? And he doesn't have total control over how much his team scores. Anyone who judges a QB on wins doesn't understand the game IMO. And I don't care how common it is, it remains idiotic. The QB can only do his job, if he does it well he helps improve his team's chance of winning. That's it.

 

[jterrell]

Just look at what you described as job 1 for the QB. How can he score more than the opponent when he has no control over what the opponent scores? And he doesn't have total control over how much his team scores. Anyone who judges a QB on wins doesn't understand the game IMO. And I don't care how common it is, it remains idiotic. The QB can only do his job, if he does it well he helps improve his team's chance of winning. That's it.

The QB can control a heck of a lot more than any other player on the team.
That's why he gets judged on wins and losses.
He controls time management and executing the play called or any audibles.
He controls his risk and risk aversion depending on situation.
He is the one with the ball every offensive snap.

QBs are judged by wins and Super Bowl specifically.
It isn't completely fair perhaps but it also isn't insane.
Aikman was a shoo-in Hall of Famer because he won.
Romo is more questionable even though he has far better passing stats.

But plenty of people argue Aikman put his defenses in easier spots than Romo ever did because he ran so many 8 minute+ drives to score.
I always though that was a joke but after seeing what the 2016 Cowboys defense which was pretty awful in talent was able to do finishing as a top 10 scoring defense; I now buy that rationale.

Aikman always said all that mattered for a QB was his 3rd down performance. That everything else was just noise. You pay the QB to keep the chains moving.

A lot of people wanna dump on Dak because the last month was brutally ugly. But we went out and won 3 of 4 games that last month and he's only ever won at every level.
There is something to be said for a guy who just knows how to do what it takes to win.

Serious question: What 2nd year QB has lost his starting LT and been good statistically?

So many are bagging on Dez as the scapegoat or Dak as the scapegoat but teams without LTs don't perform well.

 

[starcity214]

Serious question: What 2nd year QB has lost his starting LT and been good statistically?

So many are bagging on Dez as the scapegoat or Dak as the scapegoat but teams without LTs don't perform well.

Carson Wentz.

 

[black label]

heres my dak dats...he sucks

 

[HungryLion]

Carson Wentz.

Carson Wentz played great. No doubt about it.

Although he isn’t the best example either, because after his starting LT went down, he was taking a beating in many of the games. And then what happened? A season ending injury.

And I know the ACL tear happened on a scramble and run play, but I watch all eagles games since I live near Philly and he was taking a lot of big shots. It didn’t do him well in the end.

 

[jterrell]

Carson Wentz.

What were his stats last week? This week? Next week?

Protecting the QB is why LT is considered a franchise position and RT is no where near that.

 

[dogberry]

Brady is 16 points better under pressure?

He better hope Belichek doesn't see that, or the coach will send a random offensive player at the qb to help his performance.

 

[khiladi]

They have something called next gen stats. There is a sensor in the ball a d sensors around the field.

They can measure ball speed and many other things.

Even without that it would not be difficult to measure the time with a stop watch.

Some video editing programs can measure time because the frame rate is a known number. At 30 frames per second that is 33.3 milliseconds per frame. That is the accuracy which can be acheived using the video editing program. That's 0.0333 seconds when you only need 0.1 seconds of accuracy.

Frame rate is useless as far as determine the ball in a QBs hand that doesn’t even come on the screen.

Players are tracked if I read correctly every 15 seconds..

I doubt they are being used to track release times of QBs, even if we assume ‘integrity of data’ in other areas that it’s used for, otherwise they would be using it to confirm whether the ball crossed the plane:

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/13382443

Sensors also will be attached to officials and yardage sticks. The technology isn't accurate enough yet to put a sensor in the ball and, say, tell whether it crossed the goal line. But it is accurate within less than six inches, Stelfox said.

Thus is not like looking at the yardage a RB averages and charting that. This is a ball in a QBs hands down to microseconds..

They weren’t even sharing certain data as if 2016:

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/www.wired.com/2016/01/the-nfls-impending-data-revolution/amp